Behavioural, population, and genetic processes affecting metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly

In my thesis I have been studying the effects of population fragmentation and extinction-recolonization dynamics on genetic and evolutionary processes in the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia). By conducting crosses within and among newly-colonized populations and using several fitness measures, I found a strong decrease in fitness following colonization by a few related individuals, and a strong negative relationship between parental relatedness and offspring fitness. Thereafter, I was interested in determining the number and relatedness of individuals colonizing new populations, which I did using a set of microsatellites I had previously developed for this species. Additionally, I am interested in the evolution of key life-history traits. By following the lifetime reproductive success of males emerging at different times in a semi-natural setup, I demonstrated that protandry is adaptive in males, and I was able to rule out, for M. cinxia, alternative incidental hypotheses evoked to explain the evolution of protandry in insects. Finally, in work I did together with Prof. Hanna Kokko, I am proposing bet-hedging as a new mechanism that could explain the evolution of polyandry in M. cinxia.

Ecological impacts of Phlebiopsis gigantea biocontrol treatment against Heterobasidion spp. as revealed by fungal community profiling and population analyses

Wood decay fungi belonging to the species complex Heterobasidion annosum sensu lato are among the most common and economically important species causing root rot and stem decay in conifers of the northern temperate regions. New infections by these pathogens can be suppressed by tree stump treatments using chemical or biological control agents. In Finland, the corticiaceous fungus Phlebiopsis gigantea has been formulated into a commercial biocontrol agent called Rotstop (Verdera Ltd.). This thesis addresses the ecological impacts of Rotstop biocontrol treatment on the mycoflora of conifer stumps. Locally, fungal communities within Rotstop-treated and untreated stumps were analyzed using a novel method based on DGGE profiling of small subunit ribosomal DNA fragments amplified directly from wood samples. Population analyses for P. gigantea and H. annosum s.l. were conducted to evaluate possible risks associated with local and/or global distribution of the Rotstop strain. Based on molecular community profiling by DGGE, we detected a few individual wood-inhabiting fungal species (OTUs) that seemed to have suffered or benefited from the Rotstop biocontrol treatment. The DGGE analyses also revealed fungal diversity not retrieved by cultivation and some fungal sequence types untypical for decomposing conifer wood. However, statistical analysis of DGGE community profiles obtained from Rotstop-treated and untreated conifer stumps revealed that the Rotstop treatment had not caused a statistically significant reduction in the species diversity of wood-inhabiting fungi within our experimental forest plots. Locally, ISSR genotyping of cultured P. gigantea strains showed that the Rotstop biocontrol strain was capable of surviving up to six years within treated Norway spruce stumps, while in Scots pine stumps it was sooner replaced by successor fungal species. In addition, the spread of resident P. gigantea strains into Rotstop-treated forest stands seemed effective in preventing the formation of genetically monomorphic populations in the short run. On a global scale, we detected a considerable level of genetic differentiation between the interfertile European and North American populations of P. gigantea. These results strongly suggest that local biocontrol strains should be used in order to prevent global spread of P. gigantea and hybrid formation between geographically isolated populations. The population analysis for H. annosum s.l. revealed a collection of Chinese fungal strains that showed a high degree of laboratory fertility with three different allopatric H. annosum s.l. taxa. However, based on the molecular markers, the Chinese strains could be clearly affiliated with the H. parviporum taxonomical cluster, which thus appears to have a continuous distribution range from Europe through southern Siberia to northern China. Keywords: Rotstop, wood decay, DGGE, ISSR fingerprinting, ribosomal DNA

Conservation of Atlantic salmon by supplementary stocking of juvenile fish

Wild salmon stocks in the northern Baltic rivers became endangered in the second half of the 20th century, mainly due to recruitment overfishing. As a result, supplementary stocking was widely practised, and supplementation of the Tornionjoki salmon stock took place over a 25 year period until 2002. The stock has been closely monitored by electrofishing, smolt trapping, mark-recapture studies, catch samples and catch surveys. Background information on hatchery-reared stocked juveniles was also collected for this study. Bayesian statistics was applied to the data as this method offers the possibility of bringing prior information into the analysis and an advanced ability for incorporating uncertainty, and also provides probabilities for a multitude of hypotheses. Substantial divergences between reared and wild Tornionjoki salmon were identified in both demographic and phenological characteristics. The divergences tended to be larger the longer the duration spent in hatchery and the more favourable the hatchery conditions were for fast growth. Differences in environment likely induced most of the divergences, but selection of brood fish might have resulted in genotypic divergence in maturation age of reared salmon. Survival of stocked 1-year old juveniles to smolt varied from about 10% to about 25%. Stocking on the lower reach of the river seemed to decrease survival, and the negative effect of stocking volume on survival raises the concern of possible similar effects on the extant wild population. Post-smolt survival of wild Tornionjoki smolts was on average two times higher than that of smolts stocked as parr and 2.5 times higher than that of stocked smolts. Smolts of different groups showed synchronous variation and similar long-term survival trends. Both groups of reared salmon were more vulnerable to offshore driftnet and coastal trapnet fishing than wild salmon. Average survival from smolt to spawners of wild salmon was 2.8 times higher than that of salmon stocked as parr and 3.3 times higher than that of salmon stocked as smolts. Wild salmon and salmon stocked as parr were found to have similar lifetime survival rates, while stocked smolts have a lifetime survival rate over 4 times higher than the two other groups. If eggs are collected from the wild brood fish, stocking parr would therefore not be a sensible option. Stocking smolts instead would create a net benefit in terms of the number of spawners, but this strategy has serious drawbacks and risks associated with the larger phenotypic and demographic divergences from wild salmon. Supplementation was shown not to be the key factor behind the recovery of the Tornionjoki and other northern Baltic salmon stocks. Instead, a combination of restrictions in the sea fishery and simultaneous occurrence of favourable natural conditions for survival were the main reasons for the revival in the 1990 s. This study questions the effectiveness of supplementation as a conservation management tool. The benefits of supplementation seem at best limited. Relatively high occurrences of reared fish in catches may generate false optimism concerning the effects of supplementation. Supplementation may lead to genetic risks due to problems in brood fish collection and artificial rearing with relaxed natural selection and domestication. Appropriate management of fisheries is the main alternative to supplementation, without which all other efforts for long-term maintenance of a healthy fish resource fail.

Malaria burden and costs of intensified control in Bhutan, 2006-2014: A situational analysis

- Introduction Malaria cases have dwindled in Bhutan with aim of malaria elimination by 2016. The aims of this study are to determine the trends and burden of malaria, the costs of intensified control activities, the main donors of the control activities and the costs of different preventive measures in the pre-elimination phase (2006-2014). - Methods A descriptive analysis of malaria surveillance data from 2006-2014 was carried out, using data from the Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP), Bhutan. Malaria morbidity and mortality among local Bhutanese and foreign nationals were analysed. The cost of different control and preventive measures, and estimation of the average numbers of long-lasting insecticidal nests (LLINs) per person were calculated. - Findings There were 5,491 confirmed malaria cases from 2006 to 2014. By 2013, there was an average of one LLIN for every 1·51 individuals. The Global Fund was the main international donor accounting for > 80% of the total funds. The cost of procuring LLINs accounted for > 90% of the total cost of prevention measures. - Interpretation The malaria burden reduced significantly over the study period with high coverage of LLINs in Bhutan. This foreseeable challenges that require national attention to maintain malaria-free status after elimination are importation of malaria, particularly from India; continued protection of the population in endemic districts through complete coverage with LLINs and IRS; and exploration of local funding modalities post elimination in the event there is a reduction in international funding.

Environmental effects of thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants in the boreal brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea

During recent decades, thermal and radioactive discharges from nuclear power plants into the aquatic environment have become the subject of lively debate as an ecological concern. The target of this thesis was to summarize the large quantity of results obtained in extensive monitoring programmes and studies carried out in recipient sea areas off the Finnish nuclear power plants at Loviisa and Olkiluoto during more than four decades. The Loviisa NPP is located on the coast of the Gulf of Finland and Olkiluoto NPP on that of the Bothnian Sea. The state of the Gulf of Finland is clearly more eutrophic; the nutrient concentrations in the surface water are about 1½ 2 times higher at Loviisa than at Olkiluoto, and the total phosphorus concentrations still increased in both areas (even doubled at Loviisa) between the early 1970s and 2000. Thus, it is a challenge to distinguish the local effects of thermal discharges from the general eutrophication process of the Gulf of Finland. The salinity is generally low in the brackish-water conditions of the northern Baltic Sea, being however about 1 higher at Olkiluoto than at Loviisa (the salinity of surface water varying at the latter from near to 0 in early spring to 4 6 in late autumn). Thus, many marine and fresh-water organisms live in the Loviisa area close to their limit of existence, which makes the biota sensitive to any additional stress. The characteristics of the discharge areas of the two sites differ from each other in many respects: the discharge area at Loviisa is a semi-enclosed bay in the inner archipelago, where the exchange of water is limited, while the discharge area at Olkiluoto is more open, and the exchange of water with the open Bothnian Sea is more effective. The effects of the cooling water discharged from the power plants on the temperatures in the sea were most obvious in winter. The formation of a permanent ice cover in the discharge areas has been delayed in early winter, and the break-up of the ice occurs earlier in spring. The prolonging of the growing season and the disturbance of the overwintering time, in conditions where the biota has adjusted to a distinct rest period in winter, have been the most significant biological effects of the thermal pollution. The soft-bottom macrofauna at Loviisa has deteriorated to the point of almost total extinction at many sampling stations during the past 40 years. A similar decline has been reported for the whole eastern Gulf of Finland. However, the local eutrophication process seems to have contributed into the decline of the zoobenthos in the discharge area at Loviisa. Thermal discharges have increased the production of organic matter, which again has led to more organic bottom deposits. These have in turn increased the tendency of the isolated deeps to a depletion of oxygen, and this has further caused strong remobilization of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. Phytoplankton primary production and primary production capacity doubled in the whole area between the late 1960s and the late 1990s, but started to decrease a little at the beginning of this century. The focus of the production shifted from spring to mid- and late summer. The general rise in the level of primary production was mainly due to the increase in nutrient concentrations over the whole Gulf of Finland, but the thermal discharge contributed to a stronger increase of production in the discharge area compared to that in the intake area. The eutrophication of littoral vegetation in the discharge area has been the most obvious, unambiguous and significant biological effect of the heated water. Myriophyllum spicatum, Potamogeton perfoliatus and Potamogeton pectinatus, and vigorous growths of numerous filamentous algae as their epiphytes have strongly increased in the vicinity of the cooling water outlet, where they have formed dense populations in the littoral zone in late summer. However, the strongest increase of phytobenthos has extended only to a distance of about 1 km from the outlet, i.e., the changes in vegetation have been largest in those areas that remain ice-free in winter. Similar trends were also discernible at Olkiluoto, but to a clearly smaller extent, which was due to the definitely weaker level of background eutrophy and nutrient concentrations in the Bothnian Sea, and the differing local hydrographical and biological factors prevailing in the Olkiluoto area. The level of primary production has also increased at Olkiluoto, but has remained at a clearly lower level than at Loviisa. In spite of the analogous changes observed in the macrozoobenthos, the benthic fauna has remained strong and diversified in the Olkiluoto area. Small amounts of local discharge nuclides were regularly detected in environmental samples taken from the discharge areas: tritium in seawater samples, and activation products, such as 60Co, 58Co, 54Mn, 110mAg, 51Cr, in suspended particulate matter, bottom sediments and in several indicator organisms (e.g., periphyton and Fucus vesiculosus) that effectively accumulate radioactive substances from the medium. The tritium discharges and the consequent detection frequency and concentrations of tritium in seawater were higher at Loviisa, but the concentrations of the activation products were higher at Olkiluoto, where traces of local discharge nuclides were also observed over a clearly wider area, due to the better exchange of water than at Loviisa, where local discharge nuclides were only detected outside Hästholmsfjärden Bay quite rarely and in smaller amounts. At the farthest, an insignificant trace amount (0.2 Bq kg-1 d.w.) of 60Co originating from Olkiluoto was detected in Fucus at a distance of 137 km from the power plant. Discharge nuclides from the local nuclear power plants were almost exclusively detected at the lower trophic levels of the ecosystems. Traces of local discharge nuclides were very seldom detected in fish, and even then only in very low quantities. As a consequence of the reduced discharges, the concentrations of local discharge nuclides in the environment have decreased noticeably in recent years at both Loviisa and Olkiluoto. Although the concentrations in environmental samples, and above all, the discharge data, are presented as seemingly large numbers, the radiation doses caused by them to the population and to the biota are very low, practically insignificant. The effects of the thermal discharges have been more significant, at least to the wildlife in the discharge areas of the cooling water, although the area of impact has been relatively small. The results show that the nutrient level and the exchange of water in the discharge area of a nuclear power plant are of crucial importance.

Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the global burden of disease 2013

Exposure to ambient air pollution is a major risk factor for global disease. Assessment of the impacts of air pollution on population health and the evaluation of trends relative to other major risk factors requires regularly updated, accurate, spatially resolved exposure estimates. We combined satellite-based estimates, chemical transport model (CTM) simulations and ground measurements from 79 different countries to produce new global estimates of annual average fine particle (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations at 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution for five-year intervals from 1990-2010 and the year 2013. These estimates were then applied to assess population-weighted mean concentrations for 1990 – 2013 for each of 188 countries. In 2013, 87% of the world’s population lived in areas exceeding the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 (annual average). Between 1990 and 2013, decreases in population-weighted mean concentrations of PM2.5 were evident in most high income countries, in contrast to increases estimated in South Asia, throughout much of Southeast Asia, and in China. Population-weighted mean concentrations of ozone increased in most countries from 1990 - 2013, with modest decreases in North America, parts of Europe, and several countries in Southeast Asia.

Population dynamics of blue mussels in a variable environment at the edge of their range

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of species can often be ascribed to spatial and temporal variation in the surrounding environment. Knowledge of how biotic and abiotic factors operate over different spatial and temporal scales in determining distribution, abundance, and structure of populations lies at the heart of ecology. The major part of the current ecological theory stems from studies carried out in central parts of the distributional range of species, whereas knowledge of how marginal populations function is inadequate. Understanding how marginal populations, living at the edge of their range, function is however in a key position to advance ecology and evolutionary biology as scientific disciplines. My thesis focuses on the factors affecting dynamics of marginal populations of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) living close to their tolerance limits with regard to salinity. The thesis aims to highlight the dynamics at the edge of the range and contrast these with dynamics in more central parts of the range in order to understand the potential interplay between the central and the marginal part in the focal system. The objectives of the thesis are approached by studies on: (1) factors affecting regional patterns of the species, (2) long-term temporal dynamics of the focal species spaced along a regional salinity gradient, (3) selective predation by increasing populations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) when feeding on their main food item, the blue mussel, (4) the primary and secondary effects of local wave exposure gradients and (5) the role of small-scale habitat heterogeneity as determinants of large-scale pattern. The thesis shows that populations of blue mussels are largely determined by large scale changes in sea water salinity, affecting mainly recruitment success and longevity of local populations. In opposite to the traditional view, the thesis strongly indicate that vertebrate predators strongly affect abundance and size structure of blue mussel populations, and that the role of these predators increases towards the margin where populations are increasingly top-down controlled. The thesis also indicates that the positive role of biogenic habitat modifiers increases towards the marginal areas, where populations of blue mussels are largely recruitment limited. Finally, the thesis shows that local blue mussel populations are strongly dependent on high water turbulence, and therefore, dense populations are constrained to offshore habitats. Finally, the thesis suggests that ongoing sedimentation of rocky shores is detrimental for the species, affecting recruitment success and post-recruit survival, pushing stable mussel beds towards offshore areas. Ongoing large scale changes in the Baltic Sea, especially dilution processes with attendant effects, are predicted to substantially contract the distributional range of the mussel, but also affect more central populations. The thesis shows that in order to understand the functioning of marginal populations, research should (1) strive for multi-scale approaches in order to link ecosystem patterns with ecosystem processes, and (2) challenge the prevailing tenets that origin from research carried out in central areas that may not be valid at the edge.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Human genetic variation in the Baltic Sea region: Features of population history and natural selection

In this thesis, the genetic variation of human populations from the Baltic Sea region was studied in order to elucidate population history as well as evolutionary adaptation in this region. The study provided novel understanding of how the complex population level processes of migration, genetic drift, and natural selection have shaped genetic variation in North European populations. Results from genome-wide, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses suggested that the genetic background of the populations of the Baltic Sea region lies predominantly in Continental Europe, which is consistent with earlier studies and archaeological evidence. The late settlement of Fennoscandia after the Ice Age and the subsequent small population size have led to pronounced genetic drift, especially in Finland and Karelia but also in Sweden, evident especially in genome-wide and Y-chromosomal analyses. Consequently, these populations show striking genetic differentiation, as opposed to much more homogeneous pattern of variation in Central European populations. Additionally, the eastern side of the Baltic Sea was observed to have experienced eastern influence in the genome-wide data as well as in mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal variation – consistent with linguistic connections. However, Slavic influence in the Baltic Sea populations appears minor on genetic level. While the genetic diversity of the Finnish population overall was low, genome-wide and Y-chromosomal results showed pronounced regional differences. The genetic distance between Western and Eastern Finland was larger than for many geographically distant population pairs, and provinces also showed genetic differences. This is probably mainly due to the late settlement of Eastern Finland and local isolation, although differences in ancestral migration waves may contribute to this, too. In contrast, mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosomal analyses of the contemporary Swedish population revealed a much less pronounced population structure and a fusion of the traces of ancient admixture, genetic drift, and recent immigration. Genome-wide datasets also provide a resource for studying the adaptive evolution of human populations. This study revealed tens of loci with strong signs of recent positive selection in Northern Europe. These results provide interesting targets for future research on evolutionary adaptation, and may be important for understanding the background of disease-causing variants in human populations.

The global burden of injury: Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.