961 resultados para PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE
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Num contexto de crescente complexidade e disponibilidade de informação, a gestão do capital intelectual assume cada vez mais preponderância como vantagem competitiva para as empresas que procuram maximizar o valor gerado. Esta investigação usa como metodologia príncipal o VAIC (coeficiente intelectual do valor adicionado), para assim estudar a existência de relação entre capital intelectual e a performance bolsista e financeira das empresas do PSI20. O VAIC é decomposto nos seus três indicadores de eficiência, tais como: capital humano, capital estrutural e capital físico. Os dados contemplam quinze empresas e nove anos de análise (2003 - 2011). Elaborou-se uma abordagem que recorre à utilização de técnicas econométricas para reduzir potênciais falhas no tratamento de dados em painel. Os resultados da análise demonstram uma relação positiva entre a aposta em capital intelectual a performance bolsista e financeira, ou seja, a utilização e gestão eficientes do capital intelectual contribuem de forma significativa na avaliação bolsista e financeira das empresas do PSI20.
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In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.
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Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.
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Com base no modelo de Resposta à Intervenção (RtI), este estudo centrouse em três objetivos: construir um instrumento vocacionado para a determinação do nível de competências fundamentais, do 1º ao 6º anos, na disciplina de Matemática; avaliar o valor preditivo do instrumento sobre a necessidade de intervenção; examinar o efeito de uma intervenção planeada com base na avaliação diagnóstica desse instrumento. Para dar resposta ao primeiro e segundo objetivos foram consideradas duas amostras de conveniência: a primeira, constituída por 5 docentes, avaliou a versão teste do instrumento e a segunda, constituída por 6 docentes, avaliou a sua versão final (perfazendo um total de 75 alunos). Recorrendo ao método kmeans, os resultados mostraram que o instrumento é de útil e fácil aplicação, permitindo aos docentes avaliarem e identificarem o grupo de desempenho a que pertence cada aluno, em relação à média dos resultados da respetiva turma. Relativamente ao terceiro objetivo, foi constituída uma amostra de 7 alunos de uma turma do 4º ano. A intervenção decorreu ao longo de 11 semanas, com 2 sessões semanais, cuja duração variou entre 10 a 35 minutos. Para avaliar os efeitos da intervenção, foi realizado um pré e um pós-teste, assim como 2 sessões de avaliação intermédia (checkpoints), tendo-se recorrido ao teste não paramétrico de Friedman e ao teste de Wilcoxon, para avaliar a significância das diferenças entre os tempos e os níveis de suporte, para o aluno resolver a tarefa com sucesso, respetivamente. Os resultados mostraram diferenças estatiscamente significativas, particularmente entre as duas avaliações intermédia consideradas.
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Para as organizações sobreviverem num novo ambiente competitivo, tiveram que deixar de procurar obter vantagens competitivas nos seus recursos tangíveis para as procurarem nos ativos intangíveis. Assim, várias investigações comprovam a necessidade de se dar a devida importância ao conceito de Capital Intelectual como fonte de criação de vantagens competitivas para as organizações. Esta importância aplica-se a vários níveis de análise entre os quais o setor público. Esta investigação visa analisar a importância relativa de cada dimensão do capital intelectual de uma Instituição de Ensino, bem como o impacto do mesmo na performance (percecionada pelos seus stakeholders). Nesta dissertação adotamos o método de Estudo de Caso, utilizando uma abordagem mista – quantitativa e qualitativa. Utilizámos variadas técnicas na recolha de dados, tais como: entrevista, registo de áudio e questionários. Relativamente à análise de dados, efetuamos uma análise de conteúdo, análise de documentos e análise estatística. Ao nível de resultados, a análise qualitativa sugere que as três dimensões do Capital Intelectual (Capital Humano, Capital Estrutural e Capital Relacional) devem possuir a mesma importância relativa para avaliar o capital intelectual de uma Instituição de Ensino. Os resultados quantitativos sugerem que o capital intelectual tem impacto na performance, o que está em linha com a literatura sobre o tema. Finalmente, considerámos que esta tese contribui para uma sensibilização relativamente à importância do capital intelectual para melhorar a gestão e performance em contextos educacionais.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica
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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies
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The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.
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INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial
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In visceral leishmaniasis, the detection of the agent is of paramount importance to identify reservoirs of infection. Here, we evaluated the diagnostic attributes of PCRs based on primers directed to cytochrome-B (cytB), cytochrome-oxidase-subunit II (coxII), cytochrome-C (cytC), and the minicircle-kDNA. Although PCRs directed to cytB, coxII, cytC were able to detect different species of Leishmania, and the nucleotide sequence of their amplicons allowed the unequivocal differentiation of species, the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of these PCRs were much lower than the analytical and diagnostic sensitivity of the kDNA-PCR. Among the 73 seropositive animals, the asymptomatic dogs had spleen and bone marrow samples collected and tested; only two animals were positive by PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC, whereas 18 were positive by the kDNA-PCR. Considering the kDNA-PCR results, six dogs had positive spleen and bone marrow samples, eight dogs had positive bone marrow results but negative results in spleen samples and, in four dogs, the reverse situation occurred. We concluded that PCRs based on cytB, coxII, and cytC can be useful tools to identify Leishmania species when used in combination with automated sequencing. The discordance between the results of the kDNA-PCR in bone marrow and spleen samples may indicate that conventional PCR lacks sensitivity for the detection of infected dogs. Thus, primers based on the kDNA should be preferred for the screening of infected dogs.
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Modelling of ventilation is strongly dependent on the physical characteristics of the building of which precise evaluation is a complex and time consuming task. In the frame of a research project, two children day care centres (CDCC) have been selected in order to measure the envelope air permeability, the flow rate of mechanical ventilation systems and indoor and outdoor temperature. The data obtained was used as input to the computer code CONTAM for ventilation simulations. The results obtained were compared with direct measurements of ventilation flow from short term measurements with CO2 tracer gas and medium term measurements with perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) gas decay method. After validation, in order to analyse the main parameters that affect ventilation, the model was used to predict the ventilation rates for a wide range of conditions. The purpose of this assessment was to find the best practices to improve natural ventilation. A simple analytical method to predict the ventilation flow rate of rooms is also presented. The method is based on the estimation of wind effect on the room through the evaluation of an average factor and on the assessment of relevant cross section of gaps and openings combined in series or in parallel. It is shown that it may be applied with acceptable accuracy for this type of buildings when ventilation is due essentially to wind action.
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Trabalho de Projecto apresentado para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Antropologia – Culturas Visuais
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics