Self-Assembly of Poly(4-vynil-N-alkylpyridinium) Bromide onto Silica: Effect of Side-Chain Length on Structural Aspects at a Molecular Level

Self-assembly of poly(4-vynil-N-alkyl)pyridinium bromide with alkyl side chains of 2, 5, 7, 10, or 16 carbons from ethanolic solutions onto flat silica surfaces was studied by means of ellipsometry, atomic force microscopy (AFM), contact angle measurements, and sum-frequency generation (SFG) vibrational spectroscopy in the CH3 and CH2 stretch region. Ab initio quantum-chemical calculations on the N-alkylpyridinium side-group with restricted Hartree-Fock (RHF) method and 6-311G (d,p) basis set were C one to estimate the charge distribution along the pyridinium ring and the alkyl side-chain. SFG results showed that longer side chains promote the disorientation of the alkyl groups at the surface, corroborating with the contact angle values. AFM images revealed film homogeneity, regardless the alkyl side group. However, after 24 h contact with water, ringlike structures appeared on the film surfaces, when the polycation alkyl side chain had 7 or less carbons, and as the alkyl chain increased to 10 or 16 carbons, the films dewetted because the hydrophobic interactions prevailed over the electrostatic interactions between the pyridinium charged groups and the negatively charged SiO2 surface. Under acid conditions (HCl 0.1 mol.L-1), the film mean thickness values decreased up to 50% of original values when the alkyl side chains were ethyl or pentyl groups due to ion-pair disruption, but for longer groups they remained unchanged. Quantum-chemical optimization and Mulliken electron population showed that (i) from C2 to C15 the positive charge at the headgroup (HG) decreased 0.025, while the charge at combined HG + alpha-CH2 increased 0.037; and (ii) for C6 or longer, the alkyl side group presents a tilt in the geometry, moving away from the plane. Such effects summed up over the whole polymer chain give support to suggest that when the side chains are longer than 7 carbons, the hydrophobic interaction decreases film stability and increases acid resistance.

Variance Reduction in Analytical Chemistry : New Numerical Methods in Chemometrics and Molecular Simulation

This thesis is based on five papers addressing variance reduction in different ways. The papers have in common that they all present new numerical methods. Paper I investigates quantitative structure-retention relationships from an image processing perspective, using an artificial neural network to preprocess three-dimensional structural descriptions of the studied steroid molecules. Paper II presents a new method for computing free energies. Free energy is the quantity that determines chemical equilibria and partition coefficients. The proposed method may be used for estimating, e.g., chromatographic retention without performing experiments. Two papers (III and IV) deal with correcting deviations from bilinearity by so-called peak alignment. Bilinearity is a theoretical assumption about the distribution of instrumental data that is often violated by measured data. Deviations from bilinearity lead to increased variance, both in the data and in inferences from the data, unless invariance to the deviations is built into the model, e.g., by the use of the method proposed in paper III and extended in paper IV. Paper V addresses a generic problem in classification; namely, how to measure the goodness of different data representations, so that the best classifier may be constructed. Variance reduction is one of the pillars on which analytical chemistry rests. This thesis considers two aspects on variance reduction: before and after experiments are performed. Before experimenting, theoretical predictions of experimental outcomes may be used to direct which experiments to perform, and how to perform them (papers I and II). After experiments are performed, the variance of inferences from the measured data are affected by the method of data analysis (papers III-V).

A molecular dynamics study of the influence of chain branching on the properties of polymer systems

Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit dem Einfluß von Kettenverzweigungen unterschiedlicher Topologien auf die statischen Eigenschaften von Polymeren. Diese Untersuchungen werden mit Hilfe von Monte-Carlo- und Molekular-Dynamik-Simulationen durchgeführt.Zunächst werden einige theoretische Konzepte und Modelle eingeführt, welche die Beschreibung von Polymerketten auf mesoskopischen Längenskalen gestatten. Es werden wichtige Bestimmungsgrößen eingeführt und erläutert, welche zur quantitativen Charakterisierung von Verzweigungsstrukturen bei Polymeren geeignet sind. Es wird ebenso auf die verwendeten Optimierungstechniken eingegangen, die bei der Implementierung des Computerprogrammes Verwendung fanden. Untersucht werden neben linearen Polymerketten unterschiedliche Topolgien -Sternpolymere mit variabler Armzahl, Übergang von Sternpolymeren zu linearen Polymeren, Ketten mit variabler Zahl von Seitenketten, reguläre Dendrimere und hyperverzweigte Strukturen - in Abhängigkeit von der Lösungsmittelqualität. Es wird zunächst eine gründliche Analyse des verwendeten Simulationsmodells an sehr langen linearen Einzelketten vorgenommen. Die Skalierungseigenschaften der linearen Ketten werden untersucht in dem gesamten Lösungsmittelbereich vom guten Lösungsmittel bis hin zu weitgehend kollabierten Ketten im schlechten Lösungsmittel. Ein wichtiges Ergebnis dieser Arbeit ist die Bestätigung der Korrekturen zum Skalenverhalten des hydrodynamischen Radius Rh. Dieses Ergebnis war möglich aufgrund der großen gewählten Kettenlängen und der hohen Qualität der erhaltenen Daten in dieser Arbeit, insbesondere bei den linearen ketten, und es steht im Widerspruch zu vielen bisherigen Simulations-Studien und experimentellen Arbeiten. Diese Korrekturen zum Skalenverhalten wurden nicht nur für die linearen Ketten, sondern auch für Sternpolymere mit unterchiedlicher Armzahl gezeigt. Für lineare Ketten wird der Einfluß von Polydispersität untersucht.Es wird gezeigt, daß eine eindeutige Abbildung von Längenskalen zwischen Simulationsmodell und Experiment nicht möglich ist, da die zu diesem Zweck verwendete dimensionslose Größe eine zu schwache Abhängigkeit von der Polymerisation der Ketten besitzt. Ein Vergleich von Simulationsdaten mit industriellem Low-Density-Polyäthylen(LDPE) zeigt, daß LDPE in Form von stark verzweigten Ketten vorliegt.Für reguläre Dendrimere konnte ein hochgradiges Zurückfalten der Arme in die innere Kernregion nachgewiesen werden.

Simulations of charge transport in organic compounds

To aid the design of organic semiconductors, we study the charge transport properties of organic liquid crystals, i.e. hexabenzocoronene and carbazole macrocycle, and single crystals, i.e. rubrene, indolocarbazole and benzothiophene derivatives (BTBT, BBBT). The aim is to find structure-property relationships linking the chemical structure as well as the morphology with the bulk charge carrier mobility of the compounds. To this end, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are performed yielding realistic equilibrated morphologies. Partial charges and molecular orbitals are calculated based on single molecules in vacuum using quantum chemical methods. The molecular orbitals are then mapped onto the molecular positions and orientations, which allows calculation of the transfer integrals between nearest neighbors using the molecular orbital overlap method. Thus we obtain realistic transfer integral distributions and their autocorrelations. In case of organic crystals the differences between two descriptions of charge transport, namely semi-classical dynamics (SCD) in the small polaron limit and kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) based on Marcus rates, are studied. The liquid crystals are investigated solely in the hopping limit. To simulate the charge dynamics using KMC, the centers of mass of the molecules are mapped onto lattice sites and the transfer integrals are used to compute the hopping rates. In the small polaron limit, where the electronic wave function is spread over a limited number of neighboring molecules, the Schroedinger equation is solved numerically using a semi-classical approach. The results are compared for the different compounds and methods and, where available, with experimental data. The carbazole macrocycles form columnar structures arranged on a hexagonal lattice with side chains facing inwards, so columns can closely approach each other allowing inter-columnar and thus three-dimensional transport. When taking only intra-columnar transport into account, the mobility is orders of magnitude lower than in the three-dimensional case. BTBT is a promising material for solution-processed organic field-effect transistors. We are able to show that, on the time-scales of charge transport, static disorder due to slow side chain motions is the main factor determining the mobility. The resulting broad transfer integral distributions modify the connectivity of the system but sufficiently many fast percolation paths remain for the charges. Rubrene, indolocarbazole and BBBT are examples of crystals without significant static disorder. The high mobility of rubrene is explained by two main features: first, the shifted cofacial alignment of its molecules, and second, the high center of mass vibrational frequency. In comparsion to SCD, only KMC based on Marcus rates is capable of describing neighbors with low coupling and of taking static disorder into account three-dimensionally. Thus it is the method of choice for crystalline systems dominated by static disorder. However, it is inappropriate for the case of strong coupling and underestimates the mobility of well-ordered crystals. SCD, despite its one-dimensionality, is valuable for crystals with strong coupling and little disorder. It also allows correct treatment of dynamical effects, such as intermolecular vibrations of the molecules. Rate equations are incapable of this, because simulations are performed on static snapshots. We have thus shown strengths and weaknesses of two state of the art models used to study charge transport in organic compounds, partially developed a program to compute and visualize transfer integral distributions and other charge transport properties, and found structure-mobility relations for several promising organic semiconductors.

Morphology and charge transport in conjugated polymers

To assist rational compound design of organic semiconductors, two problems need to be addressed. First, the material morphology has to be known at an atomistic level. Second, with the morphology at hand, an appropriate charge transport model needs to be developed in order to link charge carrier mobility to structure.rnrnThe former can be addressed by generating atomistic morphologies using molecular dynamics simulations. However, the accessible range of time- and length-scales is limited. To overcome these limitations, systematic coarse-graining methods can be used. In the first part of the thesis, the Versatile Object-oriented Toolkit for Coarse-graining Applications is introduced, which provides a platform for the implementation of coarse-graining methods. Tools to perform Boltzmann inversion, iterative Boltzmann inversion, inverse Monte Carlo, and force-matching are available and have been tested on a set of model systems (water, methanol, propane and a single hexane chain). Advantages and problems of each specific method are discussed.rnrnIn partially disordered systems, the second issue is closely connected to constructing appropriate diabatic states between which charge transfer occurs. In the second part of the thesis, the description initially used for small conjugated molecules is extended to conjugated polymers. Here, charge transport is modeled by introducing conjugated segments on which charge carriers are localized. Inter-chain transport is then treated within a high temperature non-adiabatic Marcus theory while an adiabatic rate expression is used for intra-chain transport. The charge dynamics is simulated using the kinetic Monte Carlo method.rnrnThe entire framework is finally employed to establish a relation between the morphology and the charge mobility of the neutral and doped states of polypyrrole, a conjugated polymer. It is shown that for short oligomers, charge carrier mobility is insensitive to the orientational molecular ordering and is determined by the threshold transfer integral which connects percolating clusters of molecules that form interconnected networks. The value of this transfer integral can be related to the radial distribution function. Hence, charge mobility is mainly determined by the local molecular packing and is independent of the global morphology, at least in such a non-crystalline state of a polymer.

Helicity methods in LO and NLO QCD calculations

The goal of this thesis is the acceleration of numerical calculations of QCD observables, both at leading order and next–to–leading order in the coupling constant. In particular, the optimization of helicity and spin summation in the context of VEGAS Monte Carlo algorithms is investigated. In the literature, two such methods are mentioned but without detailed analyses. Only one of these methods can be used at next–to–leading order. This work presents a total of five different methods that replace the helicity sums with a Monte Carlo integration. This integration can be combined with the existing phase space integral, in the hope that this causes less overhead than the complete summation. For three of these methods, an extension to existing subtraction terms is developed which is required to enable next–to–leading order calculations. All methods are analyzed with respect to efficiency, accuracy, and ease of implementation before they are compared with each other. In this process, one method shows clear advantages in relation to all others.

Computer simulation methods to study interfacial tensions : from the Ising model to colloidal crystals

In condensed matter systems, the interfacial tension plays a central role for a multitude of phenomena. It is the driving force for nucleation processes, determines the shape and structure of crystalline structures and is important for industrial applications. Despite its importance, the interfacial tension is hard to determine in experiments and also in computer simulations. While for liquid-vapor interfacial tensions there exist sophisticated simulation methods to compute the interfacial tension, current methods for solid-liquid interfaces produce unsatisfactory results.rnrnAs a first approach to this topic, the influence of the interfacial tension on nuclei is studied within the three-dimensional Ising model. This model is well suited because despite its simplicity, one can learn much about nucleation of crystalline nuclei. Below the so-called roughening temperature, nuclei in the Ising model are not spherical anymore but become cubic because of the anisotropy of the interfacial tension. This is similar to crystalline nuclei, which are in general not spherical but more like a convex polyhedron with flat facets on the surface. In this context, the problem of distinguishing between the two bulk phases in the vicinity of the diffuse droplet surface is addressed. A new definition is found which correctly determines the volume of a droplet in a given configuration if compared to the volume predicted by simple macroscopic assumptions.rnrnTo compute the interfacial tension of solid-liquid interfaces, a new Monte Carlo method called ensemble switch method'' is presented which allows to compute the interfacial tension of liquid-vapor interfaces as well as solid-liquid interfaces with great accuracy. In the past, the dependence of the interfacial tension on the finite size and shape of the simulation box has often been neglected although there is a nontrivial dependence on the box dimensions. As a consequence, one needs to systematically increase the box size and extrapolate to infinite volume in order to accurately predict the interfacial tension. Therefore, a thorough finite-size scaling analysis is established in this thesis. Logarithmic corrections to the finite-size scaling are motivated and identified, which are of leading order and therefore must not be neglected. The astounding feature of these logarithmic corrections is that they do not depend at all on the model under consideration. Using the ensemble switch method, the validity of a finite-size scaling ansatz containing the aforementioned logarithmic corrections is carefully tested and confirmed. Combining the finite-size scaling theory with the ensemble switch method, the interfacial tension of several model systems, ranging from the Ising model to colloidal systems, is computed with great accuracy.

Simulation-based cost-utility analysis of population screening-based alendronate use in Switzerland

A simulation model adopting a health system perspective showed population-based screening with DXA, followed by alendronate treatment of persons with osteoporosis, or with anamnestic fracture and osteopenia, to be cost-effective in Swiss postmenopausal women from age 70, but not in men. INTRODUCTION: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a population-based screen-and-treat strategy for osteoporosis (DXA followed by alendronate treatment if osteoporotic, or osteopenic in the presence of fracture), compared to no intervention, from the perspective of the Swiss health care system. METHODS: A published Markov model assessed by first-order Monte Carlo simulation was refined to reflect the diagnostic process and treatment effects. Women and men entered the model at age 50. Main screening ages were 65, 75, and 85 years. Age at bone densitometry was flexible for persons fracturing before the main screening age. Realistic assumptions were made with respect to persistence with intended 5 years of alendronate treatment. The main outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: In women, costs per QALY were Swiss francs (CHF) 71,000, CHF 35,000, and CHF 28,000 for the main screening ages of 65, 75, and 85 years. The threshold of CHF 50,000 per QALY was reached between main screening ages 65 and 75 years. Population-based screening was not cost-effective in men. CONCLUSION: Population-based DXA screening, followed by alendronate treatment in the presence of osteoporosis, or of fracture and osteopenia, is a cost-effective option in Swiss postmenopausal women after age 70.

EVALUATING INFRASTRUCTURE PERFORMANCE TO ASSIST FACILITY MANAGEMENT TOWARD SUSTAINABLE SYSTEMS

Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

Comparative analysis of meta-analysis methods: when to use which?

Background: Several meta-analysis methods can be used to quantitatively combine the results of a group of experiments, including the weighted mean difference, statistical vote counting, the parametric response ratio and the non-parametric response ratio. The software engineering community has focused on the weighted mean difference method. However, other meta-analysis methods have distinct strengths, such as being able to be used when variances are not reported. There are as yet no guidelines to indicate which method is best for use in each case. Aim: Compile a set of rules that SE researchers can use to ascertain which aggregation method is best for use in the synthesis phase of a systematic review. Method: Monte Carlo simulation varying the number of experiments in the meta analyses, the number of subjects that they include, their variance and effect size. We empirically calculated the reliability and statistical power in each case Results: WMD is generally reliable if the variance is low, whereas its power depends on the effect size and number of subjects per meta-analysis; the reliability of RR is generally unaffected by changes in variance, but it does require more subjects than WMD to be powerful; NPRR is the most reliable method, but it is not very powerful; SVC behaves well when the effect size is moderate, but is less reliable with other effect sizes. Detailed tables of results are annexed. Conclusions: Before undertaking statistical aggregation in software engineering, it is worthwhile checking whether there is any appreciable difference in the reliability and power of the methods. If there is, software engineers should select the method that optimizes both parameters.

Numerical methods for option pricing.

This thesis aims to introduce some fundamental concepts underlying option valuation theory including implementation of computational tools. In many cases analytical solution for option pricing does not exist, thus the following numerical methods are used: binomial trees, Monte Carlo simulations and finite difference methods. First, an algorithm based on Hull and Wilmott is written for every method. Then these algorithms are improved in different ways. For the binomial tree both speed and memory usage is significantly improved by using only one vector instead of a whole price storing matrix. Computational time in Monte Carlo simulations is reduced by implementing a parallel algorithm (in C) which is capable of improving speed by a factor which equals the number of processors used. Furthermore, MatLab code for Monte Carlo was made faster by vectorizing simulation process. Finally, obtained option values are compared to those obtained with popular finite difference methods, and it is discussed which of the algorithms is more appropriate for which purpose.

Contribuciones al análisis de problemas supercomplejos de toma de decisiones

Los fundamentos de la Teoría de la Decisión Bayesiana proporcionan un marco coherente en el que se pueden resolver los problemas de toma de decisiones. La creciente disponibilidad de ordenadores potentes está llevando a tratar problemas cada vez más complejos con numerosas fuentes de incertidumbre multidimensionales; varios objetivos conflictivos; preferencias, metas y creencias cambiantes en el tiempo y distintos grupos afectados por las decisiones. Estos factores, a su vez, exigen mejores herramientas de representación de problemas; imponen fuertes restricciones cognitivas sobre los decisores y conllevan difíciles problemas computacionales. Esta tesis tratará estos tres aspectos. En el Capítulo 1, proporcionamos una revisión crítica de los principales métodos gráficos de representación y resolución de problemas, concluyendo con algunas recomendaciones fundamentales y generalizaciones. Nuestro segundo comentario nos lleva a estudiar tales métodos cuando sólo disponemos de información parcial sobre las preferencias y creencias del decisor. En el Capítulo 2, estudiamos este problema cuando empleamos diagramas de influencia (DI). Damos un algoritmo para calcular las soluciones no dominadas en un DI y analizamos varios conceptos de solución ad hoc. El último aspecto se estudia en los Capítulos 3 y 4. Motivado por una aplicación de gestión de embalses, introducimos un método heurístico para resolver problemas de decisión secuenciales. Como muestra resultados muy buenos, extendemos la idea a problemas secuenciales generales y cuantificamos su bondad. Exploramos después en varias direcciones la aplicación de métodos de simulación al Análisis de Decisiones. Introducimos primero métodos de Monte Cario para aproximar el conjunto no dominado en problemas continuos. Después, proporcionamos un método de Monte Cario basado en cadenas de Markov para problemas con información completa con estructura general: las decisiones y las variables aleatorias pueden ser continuas, y la función de utilidad puede ser arbitraria. Nuestro esquema es aplicable a muchos problemas modelizados como DI. Finalizamos con un capítulo de conclusiones y problemas abiertos.---ABSTRACT---The foundations of Bayesian Decisión Theory provide a coherent framework in which decisión making problems may be solved. With the advent of powerful computers and given the many challenging problems we face, we are gradually attempting to solve more and more complex decisión making problems with high and multidimensional uncertainty, múltiple objectives, influence of time over decisión tasks and influence over many groups. These complexity factors demand better representation tools for decisión making problems; place strong cognitive demands on the decison maker judgements; and lead to involved computational problems. This thesis will deal with these three topics. In recent years, many representation tools have been developed for decisión making problems. In Chapter 1, we provide a critical review of most of them and conclude with recommendations and generalisations. Given our second query, we could wonder how may we deal with those representation tools when there is only partial information. In Chapter 2, we find out how to deal with such a problem when it is structured as an influence diagram (ID). We give an algorithm to compute nondominated solutions in ID's and analyse several ad hoc solution concepts.- The last issue is studied in Chapters 3 and 4. In a reservoir management case study, we have introduced a heuristic method for solving sequential decisión making problems. Since it shows very good performance, we extend the idea to general problems and quantify its goodness. We explore then in several directions the application of simulation based methods to Decisión Analysis. We first introduce Monte Cario methods to approximate the nondominated set in continuous problems. Then, we provide a Monte Cario Markov Chain method for problems under total information with general structure: decisions and random variables may be continuous, and the utility function may be arbitrary. Our scheme is applicable to many problems modeled as IDs. We conclude with discussions and several open problems.

Time-multiscale methods for the simulation of slow transport problems in atomistic systems

En esta tesis presentamos una teoría adaptada a la simulación de fenómenos lentos de transporte en sistemas atomísticos. En primer lugar, desarrollamos el marco teórico para modelizar colectividades estadísticas de equilibrio. A continuación, lo adaptamos para construir modelos de colectividades estadísticas fuera de equilibrio. Esta teoría reposa sobre los principios de la mecánica estadística, en particular el principio de máxima entropía de Jaynes, utilizado tanto para sistemas en equilibrio como fuera de equilibrio, y la teoría de las aproximaciones del campo medio. Expresamos matemáticamente el problema como un principio variacional en el que maximizamos una entropía libre, en lugar de una energía libre. La formulación propuesta permite definir equivalentes atomísticos de variables macroscópicas como la temperatura y la fracción molar. De esta forma podemos considerar campos macroscópicos no uniformes. Completamos el marco teórico con reglas de cuadratura de Monte Carlo, gracias a las cuales obtenemos modelos computables. A continuación, desarrollamos el conjunto completo de ecuaciones que gobiernan procesos de transporte. Deducimos la desigualdad de disipación entrópica a partir de fuerzas y flujos termodinámicos discretos. Esta desigualdad nos permite identificar la estructura que deben cumplir los potenciales cinéticos discretos. Dichos potenciales acoplan las tasas de variación en el tiempo de las variables microscópicas con las fuerzas correspondientes. Estos potenciales cinéticos deben ser completados con una relación fenomenológica, del tipo definido por la teoría de Onsanger. Por último, aportamos validaciones numéricas. Con ellas ilustramos la capacidad de la teoría presentada para simular propiedades de equilibrio y segregación superficial en aleaciones metálicas. Primero, simulamos propiedades termodinámicas de equilibrio en el sistema atomístico. A continuación evaluamos la habilidad del modelo para reproducir procesos de transporte en sistemas complejos que duran tiempos largos con respecto a los tiempos característicos a escala atómica. ABSTRACT In this work, we formulate a theory to address simulations of slow time transport effects in atomic systems. We first develop this theoretical framework in the context of equilibrium of atomic ensembles, based on statistical mechanics. We then adapt it to model ensembles away from equilibrium. The theory stands on Jaynes' maximum entropy principle, valid for the treatment of both, systems in equilibrium and away from equilibrium and on meanfield approximation theory. It is expressed in the entropy formulation as a variational principle. We interpret atomistic equivalents of macroscopic variables such as the temperature and the molar fractions, wich are not required to be uniform, but can vary from particle to particle. We complement this theory with Monte Carlo summation rules for further approximation. In addition, we provide a framework for studying transport processes with the full set of equations driving the evolution of the system. We first derive a dissipation inequality for the entropic production involving discrete thermodynamic forces and fluxes. This discrete dissipation inequality identifies the adequate structure for discrete kinetic potentials which couple the microscopic field rates to the corresponding driving forces. Those kinetic potentials must finally be expressed as a phenomenological rule of the Onsanger Type. We present several validation cases, illustrating equilibrium properties and surface segregation of metallic alloys. We first assess the ability of a simple meanfield model to reproduce thermodynamic equilibrium properties in systems with atomic resolution. Then, we evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce a long-term transport process in complex systems.

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.