Modeling and Forecasting Implied Volatility: Implications for Trading, Pricing, and Risk Management

Modeling and forecasting of implied volatility (IV) is important to both practitioners and academics, especially in trading, pricing, hedging, and risk management activities, all of which require an accurate volatility. However, it has become challenging since the 1987 stock market crash, as implied volatilities (IVs) recovered from stock index options present two patterns: volatility smirk(skew) and volatility term-structure, if the two are examined at the same time, presents a rich implied volatility surface (IVS). This implies that the assumptions behind the Black-Scholes (1973) model do not hold empirically, as asset prices are mostly influenced by many underlying risk factors. This thesis, consists of four essays, is modeling and forecasting implied volatility in the presence of options markets’ empirical regularities. The first essay is modeling the dynamics IVS, it extends the Dumas, Fleming and Whaley (DFW) (1998) framework; for instance, using moneyness in the implied forward price and OTM put-call options on the FTSE100 index, a nonlinear optimization is used to estimate different models and thereby produce rich, smooth IVSs. Here, the constant-volatility model fails to explain the variations in the rich IVS. Next, it is found that three factors can explain about 69-88% of the variance in the IVS. Of this, on average, 56% is explained by the level factor, 15% by the term-structure factor, and the additional 7% by the jump-fear factor. The second essay proposes a quantile regression model for modeling contemporaneous asymmetric return-volatility relationship, which is the generalization of Hibbert et al. (2008) model. The results show strong negative asymmetric return-volatility relationship at various quantiles of IV distributions, it is monotonically increasing when moving from the median quantile to the uppermost quantile (i.e., 95%); therefore, OLS underestimates this relationship at upper quantiles. Additionally, the asymmetric relationship is more pronounced with the smirk (skew) adjusted volatility index measure in comparison to the old volatility index measure. Nonetheless, the volatility indices are ranked in terms of asymmetric volatility as follows: VIX, VSTOXX, VDAX, and VXN. The third essay examines the information content of the new-VDAX volatility index to forecast daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates and compares its VaR forecasts with the forecasts of the Filtered Historical Simulation and RiskMetrics. All daily VaR models are then backtested from 1992-2009 using unconditional, independence, conditional coverage, and quadratic-score tests. It is found that the VDAX subsumes almost all information required for the volatility of daily VaR forecasts for a portfolio of the DAX30 index; implied-VaR models outperform all other VaR models. The fourth essay models the risk factors driving the swaption IVs. It is found that three factors can explain 94-97% of the variation in each of the EUR, USD, and GBP swaption IVs. There are significant linkages across factors, and bi-directional causality is at work between the factors implied by EUR and USD swaption IVs. Furthermore, the factors implied by EUR and USD IVs respond to each others’ shocks; however, surprisingly, GBP does not affect them. Second, the string market model calibration results show it can efficiently reproduce (or forecast) the volatility surface for each of the swaptions markets.

Essays on Risk and Return

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

From cages to wedges and clefts : Design of some novel hosts based on Image , Image , Image -triquinane framework

Annulation of aromatic rings on the folded Image ,Image ,Image -triquinane backbone has led to the design of potential host systems Image and Image whose crystal structures have been determined.

Worksite Fitness Policy in an Intellectual Capital Framework

In a framework of Intellectual Capital (IC), the effects and interactions of a Worksite Fitness Program (WFP) policy was studied with a multidisciplinary approach. In a preliminary study, indicators for physical activity (PAI), physical fitness (PFI), activity in WFP on a regular (WFPI) and on a events basis (WFPE) were created in line with positive findings regarding the associations between physical activity and fitness patterns and sick leave, perceived health, and self-assessed work ability. The intensity of physical activity was found to be the most important variable to predict positive associations with the above mentioned wellness parameters. In four case study follow-up settings, the effects and interactions of physical activity and fitness patterns and the company’s WFP-policy on different elements of IC were studied. Qualitative methods were applied in constructing indicators and a descriptive IC measure for each case company. In cross-sectional and follow-up settings, several findings with respect to IC were found regarding physical activity in general and activity in WFP in particular. Findings were relatively strong in health and wellness related indicators in Human Capital, where, as also in Structural Capital indicators such as the company climate and employee-superior relationship, revealed positive associations. Physical activity patterns were found to act in minor role in Relational Capital. Overall, WFP was seen to be an integrated part of Structural Capital. From the viewpoint of Worksite Fitness Program as a phenomenon, this study positioned WFP as an active element of Intellectual Capital. The literature in the field of WFP emphasizes the role of WFP as an instrument to activate employees in physical activity, and thus promote their health and wellbeing. With the wider perspective the active and long range WFP policy can support a company’s Structural and Relational Capital in line with the fundamental role it has on Human Capital.

Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Framework for enabling highly available distributed applications for utility computing

The move towards IT outsourcing is the first step towards an environment where compute infrastructure is treated as a service. In utility computing this IT service has to honor Service Level Agreements (SLA) in order to meet the desired Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees. Such an environment requires reliable services in order to maximize the utilization of the resources and to decrease the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Such reliability cannot come at the cost of resource duplication, since it increases the TCO of the data center and hence the cost per compute unit. We, in this paper, look into aspects of projecting impact of hardware failures on the SLAs and techniques required to take proactive recovery steps in case of a predicted failure. By maintaining health vectors of all hardware and system resources, we predict the failure probability of resources based on observed hardware errors/failure events, at runtime. This inturn influences an availability aware middleware to take proactive action (even before the application is affected in case the system and the application have low recoverability). The proposed framework has been prototyped on a system running HP-UX. Our offline analysis of the prediction system on hardware error logs indicate no more than 10% false positives. This work to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind to perform an end-to-end analysis of the impact of a hardware fault on application SLAs, in a live system.

Integrating strong and weak discontinuities without integration subcells and example applications in an XFEM/GFEM framework

Partition of unity methods, such as the extended finite element method, allows discontinuities to be simulated independently of the mesh (Int. J. Numer. Meth. Engng. 1999; 45:601-620). This eliminates the need for the mesh to be aligned with the discontinuity or cumbersome re-meshing, as the discontinuity evolves. However, to compute the stiffness matrix of the elements intersected by the discontinuity, a subdivision of the elements into quadrature subcells aligned with the discontinuity is commonly adopted. In this paper, we use a simple integration technique, proposed for polygonal domains (Int. J. Nuttier Meth. Engng 2009; 80(1):103-134. DOI: 10.1002/nme.2589) to suppress the need for element subdivision. Numerical results presented for a few benchmark problems in the context of linear elastic fracture mechanics and a multi-material problem show that the proposed method yields accurate results. Owing to its simplicity, the proposed integration technique can be easily integrated in any existing code. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A general thermodynamic framework for understanding the behaviour of absorption chillers

In this article, a general definition of the process average temperature has been developed, and the impact of the various dissipative mechanisms on 1/COP of the chiller evaluated. The present component-by-component black box analysis removes the assumptions regarding the generator outlet temperature(s) and the component effective thermal conductances. Mass transfer resistance is also incorporated into the absorber analysis to arrive at a more realistic upper limit to the cooling capacity. Finally, the theoretical foundation for the absorption chiller T-s diagram is derived. This diagrammatic approach only requires the inlet and outlet conditions of the chiller components and can be employed as a practical tool for system analysis and comparison. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd and IIR. All rights reserved.

A building-up process in open-framework metal carboxylates that involves a progressive increase in dimensionality

Extensive research work has been carried out in the last few years on the synthesis and characterization of several families of open-framework materials, including aluminosilicates,[1] phosphates,[2] and carboxylates.[3] These studies have shown the occurrence of a variety of three dimensional (3D) architectures containing channels and other features.

Common past, divided memories: historical memory of the Polish minority members in Lithuania

The Master’s thesis examines historical memory of the Polish minority members in Lithuania with regard to how their interpretation of the common Polish-Lithuanian history reiterates or differs from the official Polish and Lithuanian narratives conveyed by the school textbooks. History teaching in high schools carries a crucial state-supported role of “identity building policies” – it maintains a national narrative of memory, which might be exclusive to minorities and their peculiar understanding of history. Lithuanians Poles, in this regard, represent a national minority, which is exposed to two conflicting national narratives of the common past – Polish and Lithuanian. As members of the Polish nation, their understanding of the common Polish-Lithuanian history is conditioned by the Polish historical narrative, acquired as part of the collective memory of the family and/or different minority organizations. On the other hand, they encounter Lithuanian historical narrative of the Polish-Lithuanian past throughout the secondary school history education, where the curriculum, even if taught in Polish, largely represents the Lithuanian point of view. The concept of collective memory is utilized to refer to collective representations of national memory (i.e. publicly articulated narratives and images of collective past in history textbooks) as well as to socially framed individual memories (i.e. historical memory of minority members, where individual remembering is framed by the social context of their identity). The thesis compares the official national historical narratives in Lithuania and Poland, as conveyed by the Polish and Lithuanian history textbooks. The consequent analysis of qualitative interviews with the Polish minority members in Lithuania offers insights into historical memory of Lithuanian Poles and its relation to the official Polish and Lithuanian national narratives of the common past. Qualitative content analysis is applied in both parts of the analysis. The narratives which emerge from the interview data could be broadly grouped into two segments. First, a more pronounced view on the past combines the following elements: i) emphasis on the value of multicultural and diverse past of Lithuania, ii) contestation of “Lithuanocentricity” of the Lithuanian narrative and iii) rejection of the term “occupation”, based on the cultural presuppositions – the dominant position of Polish culture and language in the Vilnius region, symbolic belonging and “Lithuanianness” of the local Poles. While the opposition to the term of “occupation” is in accord with the official Polish narrative conveyed by the textbooks, the former two elements do not neatly adhere to either Polish or Lithuanian textbook narratives. They should rather be considered as an expression of claims for inclusion of plural pasts into Lithuanian collective memory and hence as claims for symbolic enfranchisement into the Lithuanian “imagined community”. The second strand of views, on the other hand, does not exclude assertions about the historically dominant position of Polish culture in Lithuania, but at the same time places more emphasis on the political and historical continuity of the Lithuanian state and highlights a long-standing symbolic connectedness of Vilnius and Lithuania, thus, striking a middle way between the Polish and Lithuanian interpretations of the past.

Kotitalouden opetustilat osana kehittyvää oppimisympäristöä : asumistoiminnot ja opetussuunnitelma muutoksen määrittäjinä

Home Economics Classrooms as Part of Developing the Environment Housing Activities and Curriculums Defining Change --- The aim of the research project was to develop home economics classrooms to be flexible and versatile learning environments where household activities might be practiced according to the curriculum in different social networking situations. The research is based on the socio-cultural approach, where the functionality of the learning environment is studied specifically from an interactive learning viewpoint. The social framework is a natural starting point in home economics teaching because of the group work in classrooms. The social nature of learning thus becomes a significant part of the learning process. The study considers learning as experience based, holistic and context bound. The learning environment, i.e. home economics classrooms and the material tools there, plays a significant role in developing students skills to manage everyday life. --- The first research task was to analyze the historical development of household activities. The second research task was to develop and test criteria for functional home economics classrooms in planning both the learning environment and the students activities during lessons. The third research task was to evaluate how different professionals (commissioners, planners and teachers) use the criteria as a tool. The research consists of three parts. The first contains a historical analysis of how social changes have created tension between traditional household classrooms and new activities in homes. The historical analysis is based on housing research, regulations and instructions. For this purpose a new theoretical concept, the tension arch, was introduced. This helped in recognizing and solving problems in students activities and in developing innovations. The functionality criteria for home economics classrooms were developed based on this concept. These include technical (health, safety and technical factors), functional (ergonomic, ecological, aesthetic and economic factors) and behavioural (cooperation and interaction skills and communication technologies) criteria. --- The second part discusses how the criteria were used in renovating school buildings. Empirical data was collected from two separate schools where the activities during lessons were recorded both before and after classrooms were renovated. An analysis of both environments based on video recordings was conducted. The previously created criteria were made use of, and problematic points in functionality looked for particularly from a social interactive viewpoint. The results show that the criteria were used as a planning tool. The criteria facilitated layout and equipment solutions that support both curriculum and learning in home economics classrooms taking into consideration cooperation and interaction in the classroom. With the help of the criteria the home economics classrooms changed from closed and complicated space into integrated and open spaces where the flexibility and versatility of the learning environment was emphasized. The teacher became a facilitator and counselor instead a classroom controller. --- The third part analyses the discussions in planning meetings. These were recorded and an analysis was conducted of how the criteria and research results were used in the planning process of new home economics classrooms. The planning process was multivoiced, i.e. actors from different interest groups took part. All the previously created criteria (technical, functional and behavioural) emerged in the discussions and some of them were used as planning tools. Planning meetings turned into planning studios where boundaries between organizations were ignored and the physical learning environments were developed together with experts. The planning studios resulted in multivoiced planning which showed characteristics of collaborative and participating planning as well as producing common knowledge and shared expertise. --- KEY WORDS: physical learning environment, socio-cultural approach, tension arch, boundary crossing, collaborative planning.

Paganism, Traditionalism, Nationalism : Narratives of Russian Rodnoverie

The topic of this dissertation is Rodnoverie, a religion that revives pre-Christian Slavic spirituality. Rodnoverie has been noted to be one of the fastest growing new religions in Russia and the aim of the study is to analyse why and how the movement has attained its popularity. First, the analysis asks how Rodnovers themselves explain the revival of ancient Paganism at this particular historical moment. Secondly, these interpretations are reflected in the framework of sociological discussions about contemporary religiosity. The analysis discusses how the Rodnoverie movement corresponds to some tendencies that are considered to characterise late modern religiosity. The primary material of the research is Rodnoverie texts: books, newspapers and electronic articles. The published literature is supplemented by fieldwork material which includes interviews with some Rodnoverie leaders and the author s participant observation of rituals and gatherings. Methodologically, the study draws on a sociological narrative approach that is focused on examining how individuals and groups use narratives to construct their identities and to challenge mainstream discussions and interpretations. The analysis discerns three narratives. The first one of these portrays Rodnoverie as a revival of the native Russian or Slavic religion. The narrative provides a new version of the old Slavophile idea, according to which imitation of the West has misguided Russia and, therefore, Russians should turn to their own tradition. In the second narrative, Rodnoverie is presented as a nature religion that features tolerance and pluralistic values. According to these perceptions, the emergence of Rodnoverie marks the dead-end of the earlier hegemonic universalistic world-views, the mono-ideologies . While the nationalist narrative focuses on Russia s national heritage, the third narrative interprets the tradition in more universal terms as an alternative to modern values and way of life. The main argument of this narrative is that contemporary people have become alienated from nature, their roots and their community. The themes that are discussed in the theoretical literature on late modern religiosity often configure in Rodnovers interpretations either directly or when looked at through an analytical framework. Of the various themes that are addressed in a sociological study of religion the ones that have most relevance for Rodnoverie are the discussions on individualisation, globalisation and secularisation. Rodnoverie reflects such tendencies as the subjectivisation of religion and the modern crisis of authority. The movement also both exemplifies and actively promotes religious pluralisation in Russia.