Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

Self-paced Movement Intention Detection from Human Brain Signals: Invasive and Non-invasive EEG

Neural signatures of humans' movement intention can be exploited by future neuroprosthesis. We propose a method for detecting self-paced upper limb movement intention from brain signals acquired with both invasive and noninvasive methods. In the first study with scalp electroencephalograph (EEG) signals from healthy controls, we report single trial detection of movement intention using movement related potentials (MRPs) in a frequency range between 0.1 to 1 Hz. Movement intention can be detected above chance level (p<0.05) on average 460 ms before the movement onset with low detection rate during the on-movement intention period. Using intracranial EEG (iEEG) from one epileptic subject, we detect movement intention as early as 1500 ms before movement onset with accuracy above 90% using electrodes implanted in the bilateral supplementary motor area (SMA). The coherent results obtained with non-invasive and invasive method and its generalization capabilities across different days of recording, strengthened the theory that self-paced movement intention can be detected before movement initiation for the advancement in robot-assisted neurorehabilitation.

Comment to "Weak instruments robust tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips curve" by Frank Kleibergen and Sophocles Mavroeidis

I discuss the identifiability of a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve when it is embedded in a small scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Identification problems emerge because not all the structural parameters are recoverable from the semi-structural ones and because the objective functions I consider are poorly behaved. The solution and the moment mappings are responsible for the problems.

A note on the dual scaling of dominance data and its relationship to correspondence analysis

Dual scaling of a subjects-by-objects table of dominance data (preferences,paired comparisons and successive categories data) has been contrasted with correspondence analysis, as if the two techniques were somehow different. In this note we show that dual scaling of dominance data is equivalent to the correspondence analysis of a table which is doubled with respect to subjects. We also show that the results of both methods can be recovered from a principal components analysis of the undoubled dominance table which is centred with respect to subject means.

Location of multiple server common service centers or public facilities for minimizing general congestion and travel cost functions

We propose a model and solution methods, for locating a fixed number ofmultiple-server, congestible common service centers or congestible publicfacilities. Locations are chosen so to minimize consumers congestion (orqueuing) and travel costs, considering that all the demand must be served.Customers choose the facilities to which they travel in order to receiveservice at minimum travel and congestion cost. As a proxy for thiscriterion, total travel and waiting costs are minimized. The travel costis a general function of the origin and destination of the demand, whilethe congestion cost is a general function of the number of customers inqueue at the facilities.

Cyclododecane exposure in the field of conservation and restoration of art objects

PURPOSE: Recent work practices in the conservation and restoration involve the use of cyclododecane (CDD, CAS 294-62-2) to protect fragile artifacts during their handling or transportation. Little is known about its toxicity, and no previous exposure has been reported. A short field investigation was conducted to characterize the exposure conditions to both CDD vapors and aerosols.METHODS: Measurements were conducted in the laboratory of conservation and restoration of the archeological service in Bern (Switzerland). Three indoor and four outdoor typical work situations, either during brush or spray gun applications, were investigated. Measurements were performed on charcoal adsorbent tube and analyzed by a gas chromatograph equipped with a flame ionization detector.RESULTS: Measurements have been conducted during both brush and spray gun applications. Indoor exposures were of 0.75-15.5 mg/m(3), while outdoors exposures were 19.5-53.9 mg/m(3). Exposures appear to be extremely localized due to both physicochemical properties and application methods of the CDD. Vapor exposure increases dramatically with the confinement of the workplace.CONCLUSION: Preventive measures should be undertaken to limit as much as possible these exposures. Field work in confined areas (ditches, underground) is of particular concern. CDD-coated artifacts or materials should be stored in ventilated areas to avoid delayed exposures. [Authors]

A data-dependent skeleton estimate and a scale-sensitive dimension for classification

The classical binary classification problem is investigatedwhen it is known in advance that the posterior probability function(or regression function) belongs to some class of functions. We introduceand analyze a method which effectively exploits this knowledge. The methodis based on minimizing the empirical risk over a carefully selected``skeleton'' of the class of regression functions. The skeleton is acovering of the class based on a data--dependent metric, especiallyfitted for classification. A new scale--sensitive dimension isintroduced which is more useful for the studied classification problemthan other, previously defined, dimension measures. This fact isdemonstrated by performance bounds for the skeleton estimate in termsof the new dimension.

Design effect and interviewer effects: Evidence from the Spanish ESS3-2006 Data

In 2007 the first Quality Enhancement Meeting on sampling in the European SocialSurvey (ESS) took place. The discussion focused on design effects and inteviewereffects in face-to-face interviews. Following the recomendations of this meeting theSpanish ESS team studied the impact of interviewers as a new element in the designeffect in the response s variance using the information of the correspondent SampleDesign Data Files. Hierarchical multilevel and cross-classified multilevel analysis areconducted in order to estimate the amount of responses variation due to PSU and tointerviewers for different questions in the survey. Factor such as the age of theinterviewer, gender, workload, training and experience and respondent characteristicssuch as age, gender, renuance to participate and their possible interactions are alsoincluded in the analysis of some specific questions like trust in politicians and trustin legal system . Some recomendations related to future sampling designs and thecontents of the briefing sessions are derived from this initial research.

Decision making in uncertain and changing environments

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertainand changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discountsfuture payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm thatperforms almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts orbenchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agentis sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgettingdistant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant pastequally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

Sweet diversity: Colonial goods and the rise of European living standards after 1492

When did overseas trade start to matter for living standards? Traditional real-wage indices suggest that living standards in Europe stagnated before 1800. In this paper, we argue thatwelfare rose substantially, but surreptitiously, because of an influx of new goods as a result ofoverseas trade. Colonial luxuries such as tea, coffee, and sugar transformed European diets afterthe discovery of America and the rounding of the Cape of Good Hope. These goods became household items in many countries by the end of the 18th century. We use three different methodsto calculate welfare gains based on price data and the rate of adoption of these new colonialgoods. Our results suggest that by 1800, the average Englishman would have been willing to forego 10% or more of his income in order to maintain access to sugar and tea alone. These findings are robust to a wide range of alternative assumptions, data series, and valuation methods.

Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Strike outcomes and wage settlements in Spain

This paper analyzes collective bargaining using Spanish firm level data. Centralto the analysis are the joint determination of wage and strike outcomes in adynamic framework and the possibility of segregate wage equation for strike andnon-strike outcomes. Conditional to strikes taking place, we confirm a negativerelationship between strike duration and wage changes in a dynamic context.Furthermore, we find selection in wage equations induced by the strike outcome.In this sense, the possibility of wage determination processes being differentin strike and non-strike samples is not rejected by the data. In particular,wage dynamics are of opposite sing in both strike and non-strike equations.Finally, we find evidence of a 0.33 percentage points wage change strike premium.

Comparing and validating hypothesis test procedures: Graphical and numerical tools

When the behaviour of a specific hypothesis test statistic is studied by aMonte Carlo experiment, the usual way to describe its quality is by givingthe empirical level of the test. As an alternative to this procedure, we usethe empirical distribution of the obtained \emph{p-}values and exploit itsinformation both graphically and numerically.

Correspondence analysis and categorical conjoint measurement

We show the equivalence between the use of correspondence analysis (CA)of concadenated tables and the application of a particular version ofconjoint analysis called categorical conjoint measurement (CCM). Theconnection is established using canonical correlation (CC). The second part introduces the interaction e¤ects in all three variants of theanalysis and shows how to pass between the results of each analysis.