The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

The appraisal of anaerobic digestion in Ireland to develop improved designs and operational practice

Mesophilic Anaerobic Digestion treating sewage sludge was investigated at five full-scale sewage treatment plants in Ireland. The anaerobic digestion plants are compared and evaluated in terms of design, equipment, operation, monitoring and management. All digesters are cylindrical, gas mixed and heated Continuously Stirred Tank Reactors (CSTR), varying in size from 130m3 to 800m3. Heat exchanger systems heat all digesters. Three plants reported difficulties with the heating systems ranging from blockages to insufficient insulation and design. Exchangers were modified and replaced within one year of operation at two plants. All but one plant had Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems installed. Parameter monitoring is a problem at all plants mainly due to a lack of staff and knowledge. The plant operators consider pH and temperature the most important parameters to be measured in terms of successful monitoring of an anaerobic digester. The short time taken and the ease at which pH and temperature can be measured may favour these parameters. Three laboratory scale pilot anaerobic digesters were operated using a variety of feeds over at 144-day period. Two of the pilots were unmixed and the third was mechanically mixed. As expected the unmixed reactors removed more COD by retention of solids in the digesters but also produced greater quantities of biogas than the mixed digester, especially when low solids feed such as whey was used. The mixed digester broke down more solids due to the superior contact between the substrate and the biomass. All three reactors showed good performance results for whey and sewage solids. Scum formation occurred giving operational problems for mixed and unmixed reactors when cattle slurry was used as the main feed source. The pilot test was also used to investigate which parameters were the best indicators of process instability. These trials clearly indicated that total Volatile Fatty Acid (VFA) concentrations was the best parameter to show signs of early process imbalance, while methane composition in the biogas was good to indicate possible nutrient deficiencies in the feed and oxygen shocks. pH was found to be a good process parameter only if the wastewater being treated produced low bicarbonate alkalinities during treatment.

Femoral versus Radial Access in Primary Angioplasty. Analysis of the ACCEPT Registry

Background:The radial access provides a lower risk of bleeding and vascular complications related to the puncture site in comparison to the femoral access. Recent studies have suggested a reduction in mortality associated with the radial access in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.Objective:To compare the occurrence of adverse cardiovascular ischemic and hemorrhagic events in patients undergoing primary angioplasty according to the type of arterial access route.Methods:From August 2010 to December 2011, 588 patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention during acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were assessed; they were recruited from 47 centers participating in the ACCEPT registry. Patients were grouped and compared according to the arterial access used for the procedure.Results:The mean age was 61.8 years; 75% were males and 24% had diabetes mellitus. There was no difference between groups as regards the procedure success rate, as well as regards the occurrence of death, reinfarction, or stroke at six months of follow-up. Severe bleeding was reported in 1.1% of the sample analyzed, with no statistical difference related to the access used.Conclusions:The femoral and radial accesses are equally safe and effective for the performance of primary percutaneous coronary intervention. The low rate of cardiovascular events and of hemorrhagic complications reflects the quality of the participating centers and the operators expertise with the use of both techniques.

Effiziente Behandlung von Integraloperatoren bei populationsdynamischen Modellen

Fast methods, H-matrices, FFT, integral operators, Volterra operators

Corrigendum stable matchings and preferences of couples

We correct an omission in the definition of our domain of weakly responsive preferences introduced in Klaus and Klijn (2005) or KK05 for short. The proof of the existence of stable matchings (KK05, Theorem 3.3) and a maximal domain result (KK05, Theorem 3.5) are adjusted accordingly.

Paths to stability for matching markets with couples

We study two-sided matching markets with couples and show that for a natural preference domain for couples, the domain of weakly responsive preferences, stable outcomes can always be reached by means of decentralized decision making. Starting from an arbitrary matching, we construct a path of matchings obtained from `satisfying' blocking coalitions that yields a stable matching. Hence, we establish a generalization of Roth and Vande Vate's (1990) result on path convergence to stability for decentralized singles markets. Furthermore, we show that when stable matchings exist, but preferences are not weakly responsive, for some initial matchings there may not exist any path obtained from `satisfying' blocking coalitions that yields a stable matching.

On group strategy-proof mechanisms for a many-to-one matching model

For the many-to-one matching model in which firms have substitutable and quota q-separable preferences over subsets of workers we show that the workers-optimal stable mechanism is group strategy-proof for the workers. In order to prove this result, we also show that under this domain of preferences (which contains the domain of responsive preferences of the college admissions problem) the workers-optimal stable matching is weakly Pareto optimal for the workers and the Blocking Lemma holds as well. We exhibit an example showing that none of these three results remain true if the preferences of firms are substitutable but not quota q-separable.

A maximal domain of preferences for tops-only rules in the division problem

The division problem consists of allocating an amount M of a perfectly divisible good among a group of n agents. Sprumont (1991) showed that if agents have single-peaked preferences over their shares, the uniform rule is the unique strategy-proof, efficient, and anonymous rule. Ching and Serizawa (1998) extended this result by showing that the set of single-plateaued preferences is the largest domain, for all possible values of M, admitting a rule (the extended uniform rule) satisfying strategy-proofness, efficiency and symmetry. We identify, for each M and n, a maximal domain of preferences under which the extended uniform rule also satisfies the properties of strategy-proofness, efficiency, continuity, and "tops-onlyness". These domains (called weakly single-plateaued) are strictly larger than the set of single-plateaued preferences. However, their intersection, when M varies from zero to infinity, coincides with the set of single-plateaued preferences.

Observation on the morphology of Australorbis glabratus

The present morphological study of A. glabratus was based on the observation of shell, radula, renal region and genitalia of 50 specimens having a shell diameter of 18 mm. In this summary we record the data pertaining to the chracteristics that can be used in systematics. The numerals refere to the mean and their standard deviation; no special reference being made, they correspond to length measurements. Shell: 18 mm in diameter, 5.59 ± 0.24 mm in greatest width, 5 to 6 whorls. Right side umbilicated, left one weakly depressed. Last whorl about thrice as tall as the penultimate one at the aperture, the measurements being taken on the right side. Aperture perpendicular or a little oblique. Body, extended: 47.06 ± 3.31 mm. Renal tube: Narrow and elongated, 23.84 ± 1.90 mm, showing a pigmented ridge along its ventral surface. Ovotestis: 12.78 ± 1.50 mm. Mainly trifurcate diverticula attaching in fan-like manner to the collecting canal (this arrangement is seen to best advantage in the cephalic middle of the ovotestis). The collecting canal greatly swells at the cephalic end, narrowing suddenly as it leaves the ovotestis. Ovisperm duct: 13.70 ± 1.68 mm, including the non-unwound seminal vesicle. The latter, situated about 1 mm from the beginning af the ovisperm duct, was 1.14 ± 0.29 mm in greatest diameter, and is beset by numerous short diverticula. Sperm duct: 14.16 ± 1.27 mm, pursuing a sinous course along the oviduct. Prostate: Prostate duct 5.53 ± 0.74 mm, collecting a row of long diverticula, the latter 21.6 ± 3.5 in number. Last diverticulum generally simple or bifurcate, penultimate generally arborescent, bifurcate or simple, antepenultimate nearly always arborescent, the remaining ones arborescent. The arborescent diverticula frequently give off secondary branches. Vas deferens: 17.50 ± 2.05 mm. The ratio vas deferens/vergic sac was 4.7 ± 0.6. Verge: 3.70 ± 0.54 mm long, 0.12 ± 0.03 mm wide. Free end tapering to a point where the sperm canal opens. No penial stylet. Vergic sac: 3.77 ± 0.50 mm long, 0.19 ± 0.01 mm wide. The length ratio vergic sac/preputium was 1 ± 0.02. Preputium: Deeply pigmented, 3.79 ± 0.40 mm long, 0.89 ± 0.12 mm wide in the middle. Muscular diaphragm between it and the vergic sac. Two muscular pilasters along its lateral walls. Oviduct: 10.24 ± 1.29 mm, suddenly swollen at the cephalic end so that it forms a folded pouch capping the beginning of the uterus. Uterus: 10.58 ± 1.18 mm. Vagina: 2.06 ± 0.15 mm long, 0.32 ± 0.05 mm wide, showing a swelling at its caudal portion, just above the opening of the spermathecal duct. Spermatheca: 1.57 ± 0.41 mm long, 0.92 ± 0.23 mm wide. Spermathecal duct 1.15 ± 0.23 mm. Radula: 125 to 163 rows of teeth (mean 141.4 ± 9.8). Radula formula 27-1-27 to 34-1-34 (mean 30.9 ± 1.7).

Algebraic extensions in free groups

The aim of this paper is to unify the points of view of three recent and independent papers (Ventura 1997, Margolis, Sapir and Weil 2001 and Kapovich and Miasnikov 2002), where similar modern versions of a 1951 theorem of Takahasi were given. We develop a theory of algebraic extensions for free groups, highlighting the analogies and differences with respect to the corresponding classical fieldt heoretic notions, and we discuss in detail the notion of algebraic closure. We apply that theory to the study and the computation of certain algebraic properties of subgroups (e.g. being malnormal, pure, inert or compressed, being closed in certain profinite topologies) and the corresponding closure operators. We also analyze the closure of a subgroup under the addition of solutions of certain sets of equations.

Real rank zero algebras have the corona factorization property

The purpose of this short note is to prove that a stable separable C*-algebra with real rank zero has the so-called corona factorization property, that is, all the full multiplier projections are properly in finite. Enroute to our result, we consider conditions under which a real rank zero C*-algebra admits an injection of the compact operators (a question already considered in [21]).

Public enterprise reforms and efficiency in regulated environments: the case of the postal sector

Purpose - This paper focuses on analyzing the effect that public reforms have on the efficiency of state-owned enterprises in regulated environments. Design/methodology/approach - The research is focused in the postal sector where public and private companies must obey a legal framework related to provide a universal service. The analysis is carried out using a panel of 7 European postal operators for the period 1997-2003. The activity analyzed was the letter mail division; we take as key variable the unit cost of a letter and use a translog cost function where as independent variables we include traffic levels, labor cost per employee, quality and availability of the service as well as the type of ownership (public or private). Additionally, in a second stage the geographical differences among countries are considered. Findings - Results indicate that postal operators that experienced organizational changes without being privatized, such as the Spanish and Greek operators, do not have higher unit costs than privatized postal operators like the one of Germany and the Netherlands. Moreover, we find that in all cases the operator of Ireland appear to be the most efficient. In this case restructuring process has been carried out giving an important leadership role to workers. This suggests us that labor culture could be a key variable to study when analyzing reform processes in public enterprises. Originality/value - Our findings show that in a regulated environment like in the postal sector, public and private companies can obtain similar efficiency levels in term of unit costs.

Corrigendum: stable matchings and preferences of couples

We correct an omission in the definition of the domain of weakly responsive preferences introduced in Klaus and Klijn (2005) or KK05 for short. The proof of the existence of stable matchings (KK05, Theorem 3.3) and a maximal domain result (KK05, Theorem 3.5) are adjusted accordingly.

North-South trade and directed technical change

In a world where poor countries provide weak protection for intellectual property rights (IPRs), market integration shifts technical change in favor of rich nations. Through this channel, free trade may amplify international income differences. At the same time, integration with countries where IPRs are weakly protected can slow down the world growth rate. An important implication of these results is that protection of intellectual property is most beneficial in open countries. This prediction, which is novel in the literature, is consistent with evidence from a panel of 53 countries observed in the years 1965-1990. The paper also provides empirical support for the mechanism linking North-South trade to the direction of technical change: an increase in import penetration from low-wage, low-IPRs, countries is followed by a sharp fall in R&D investment in a panel of US manufacturing sectors.

Convergence of singular integrals with general measures

We show that L2-bounded singular integrals in metric spaces with respect to general measures and kernels converge weakly. This implies a kind of average convergence almost everywhere. For measures with zero density we prove the almost everywhere existence of principal values.