Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

BACKGROUND Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. METHODS We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. RESULTS The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction. Prostate 75:1467–1474, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Conservative Design Optimization of Laminated Composite Structures Using Genetic Algorithms and Multiple Failure Criteria

This article analyzes the effect of devising a new failure envelope by the combination of the most commonly used failure criteria for the composite laminates, on the design of composite structures. The failure criteria considered for the study are maximum stress and Tsai-Wu criteria. In addition to these popular phenomenological-based failure criteria, a micromechanics-based failure criterion called failure mechanism-based failure criterion is also considered. The failure envelopes obtained by these failure criteria are superimposed over one another and a new failure envelope is constructed based on the lowest absolute values of the strengths predicted by these failure criteria. Thus, the new failure envelope so obtained is named as most conservative failure envelope. A minimum weight design of composite laminates is performed using genetic algorithms. In addition to this, the effect of stacking sequence on the minimum weight of the laminate is also studied. Results are compared for the different failure envelopes and the conservative design is evaluated, with respect to the designs obtained by using only one failure criteria. The design approach is recommended for structures where composites are the key load-carrying members such as helicopter rotor blades.

Mechanism of failure in a free-standing Pt-aluminide bond coat during tensile testing at room temperature

The room temperature (RT) tensile behaviour of a free-standing high activity Pt-aluminide bond coat has been evaluated by microtensile testing technique. The coating had a typical three-layer microstructure. The stress-strain plot for the free-standing coating was linear, indicating the coating to be brittle at RT. Different fracture features were observed across the coating layers, namely quasi-cleavage in the outer layer and inner interdiffusion zone, and cleavage in the intermediate layer. By employing interrupted tensile test and observing the cross-sectional microstructure of the tested specimens, it was determined that failure of the microtensile samples occurred by the initiation of a single crack in the intermediate layer of the coating and its subsequent inside-out propagation. Such a mechanism of failure has been explained in terms of the fracture features observed across the sample thickness. This mechanism of failure is consistent with fracture toughness values of the individual coating layers. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hemodynamics and outcome of septic shock

Septic shock is a common killer in intensive care units (ICU). The most crucial issue concerning the outcome is the early and aggressive start of treatment aimed at normalization of hemodynamics and the early start of antibiotics during the very first hours. The optimal targets of hemodynamic treatment, or impact of hemodynamic treatment on survival after first resuscitation period are less known. The objective of this study was to evaluate different aspects of the hemodynamic pattern in septic shock with special attention to prediction of outcome. In particular components of early treatment and monitoring in the ICU were assessed. A total of 401 patients, 218 with septic shock and 192 with severe sepsis or septic shock were included in the study. The patients were treated in 24 Finnish ICUs during 1999-2005. 295 of the patients were included in the Finnish national epidemiologic Finnsepsis study. We found that the most important hemodynamic variables concerning the outcome were the mean arterial pressures (MAP) and lactate during the first six hours in ICU and the MAP and mixed venous oxygen saturation (SvO2) under 70% during first 48 hours. The MAP levels under 65 mmHg and SvO2 below 70% were the best predictive thresholds. Also the high central venous pressure (CVP) correlated to adverse outcome. We assessed the correlation and agreement of SvO2 and mean central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) in septic shock during first day in ICU. The mean SvO2 was below ScvO2 during early sepsis. Bias of difference was 4.2% (95% limits of agreement 8.1% to 16.5%) by Bland-Altman analysis. The difference between saturation values correlated significantly to cardiac index and oxygen delivery. Thus, the ScvO2 can not be used as a substitute of SvO2 in hemodynamic monitoring in ICU. Several biomarkers have been investigated for their ability to help in diagnosis or outcome prediction in sepsis. We assessed the predictive value of N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) on mortality in severe sepsis or septic shock. The NT-proBNP levels were significantly higher in hospital nonsurvivors. The NT-proBNP 72 hrs after inclusion was independent predictor of hospital mortality. The acute cardiac load contributed to NTproBNP values at admission, but renal failure was the main confounding factor later. The accuracy of NT-proBNP, however, was not sufficient for clinical decision-making concerning the outcome prediction. The delays in start of treatment are associated to poorer prognosis in sepsis. We assessed how the early treatment guidelines were adopted, and what was the impact of early treatment on mortality in septic shock in Finland. We found that the early treatment was not optimal in Finnish hospitals and this reflected to mortality. A delayed initiation of antimicrobial agents was especially associated with unfavorable outcome.

Therapeutic hypothermia after cardiac arrest : Studies on neurological and cardiological outcome and prediction of outcome in hypothermia-treated patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

The outcome of the successfully resuscitated patient is mainly determined by the extent of hypoxic-ischemic cerebral injury, and hypothermia has multiple mechanisms of action in mitigating such injury. The present study was undertaken from 1997 to 2001 in Helsinki as a part of the European multicenter study Hypothermia after cardiac arrest (HACA) to test the neuroprotective effect of therapeutic hypothermia in patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital ventricular fibrillation (VF) cardiac arrest (CA). The aim of this substudy was to examine the neurological and cardiological outcome of these patients, and especially to study and develop methods for prediction of outcome in the hypothermia-treated patients. A total of 275 patients were randomized to the HACA trial in Europe. In Helsinki, 70 patients were enrolled in the study according to the inclusion criteria. Those randomized to hypothermia were actively cooled externally to a core temperature 33 ± 1ºC for 24 hours with a cooling device. Serum markers of ischemic neuronal injury, NSE and S-100B, were sampled at 24, 36, and 48 hours after CA. Somatosensory and brain stem auditory evoked potentials (SEPs and BAEPs) were recorded 24 to 28 hours after CA; 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography recordings were performed three times during the first two weeks and arrhythmias and heart rate variability (HRV) were analyzed from the tapes. The clinical outcome was assessed 3 and 6 months after CA. Neuropsychological examinations were performed on the conscious survivors 3 months after the CA. Quantitative electroencephalography (Q-EEG) and auditory P300 event-related potentials were studied at the same time-point. Therapeutic hypothermia of 33ºC for 24 hours led to an increased chance of good neurological outcome and survival after out-of-hospital VF CA. In the HACA study, 55% of hypothermia-treated patients and 39% of normothermia-treated patients reached a good neurological outcome (p=0.009) at 6 months after CA. Use of therapeutic hypothermia was not associated with any increase in clinically significant arrhythmias. The levels of serum NSE, but not the levels of S-100B, were lower in hypothermia- than in normothermia-treated patients. A decrease in NSE values between 24 and 48 hours was associated with good outcome at 6 months after CA. Decreasing levels of serum NSE but not of S-100B over time may indicate selective attenuation of delayed neuronal death by therapeutic hypothermia, and the time-course of serum NSE between 24 and 48 hours after CA may help in clinical decision-making. In SEP recordings bilaterally absent N20 responses predicted permanent coma with a specificity of 100% in both treatment arms. Recording of BAEPs provided no additional benefit in outcome prediction. Preserved 24- to 48-hour HRV may be a predictor of favorable outcome in CA patients treated with hypothermia. At 3 months after CA, no differences appeared in any cognitive functions between the two groups: 67% of patients in the hypothermia and 44% patients in the normothermia group were cognitively intact or had only very mild impairment. No significant differences emerged in any of the Q-EEG parameters between the two groups. The amplitude of P300 potential was significantly higher in the hypothermia-treated group. These results give further support to the use of therapeutic hypothermia in patients with sudden out-of-hospital CA.

CAE-based prediction of projectile residual velocity for impact on single and multi-layered metallic armour plates

The present, paper deals with the CAE-based study Of impact of jacketed projectiles on single- and multi-layered metal armour plates using LS-DYNA. The validation of finite element modelling procedure is mainly based on the mesh convergence study using both shell and solid elements for representing single-layered mild steel target plates. It, is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and the strain rate-dependent material properties are essential for all accurate prediction of projectile residual velocity. The modelling requirements are initially arrived at by correlating against test residual velocities for single-layered mild steel plates of different depths at impact velocities in the ran.-c of approximately 800-870 m/s. The efficacy of correlation is adjudged, in terms of a 'correlation index', defined in the paper: for which values close to unity are desirable. The experience gained for single-layered plates is next; used in simulating projectile impacts on multi-layered mild steel target plates and once again a high degree of correlation with experimental residual velocities is observed. The study is repeated for single- and multi-layered aluminium target plates with a similar level of success in test residual velocity prediction. TO the authors' best knowledge, the present comprehensive study shows in particular for the first time that, with a. proper modelling approach, LS-DYNA can be used with a great degree of confidence in designing perforation-resistant single and multi-layered metallic armour plates.

The impact of service failure on brand credibility

Recent studies have examined the consequences of brand credibility, with the majority of works embedded in physical goods. Despite the growing attention service branding receives, little is known about how service failure and recovery efforts impact on brand credibility in service organisations. The purpose of this study is to examine how brand credibility is affected by service failure and an organisations recovery efforts. An online self-completion survey of airline consumers (n=875) was employed to test the relationships between the focal constructs. The results show that a service firm’s effective complaint handling positively impacts satisfaction with complaining, overall satisfaction and service brand credibility. The study also finds that the higher the perceived magnitude of failure, the more difficult it is to satisfy a customer. These results demonstrate that it is possible to maintain service brand credibility during a service failure, provided brand managers develop and implement effective complain handling procedures.

Characterization of Failure Modes in CFRP Composites - An ANN Approach

Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite specimens with different thickness, geometry, and stacking sequences were subjected to fatigue spectrum loading in stages. Another set of specimens was subjected to static compression load. On-line acoustic Emission (AE) monitoring was carried out during these tests. Two artificial neural networks, Kohonen-self organizing feature map (KSOM), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) have been developed for AE signal analysis. AE signals from specimens were clustered using the unsupervised learning KSOM. These clusters were correlated to the failure modes using available a priori information such as AE signal amplitude distributions, time of occurrence of signals, ultrasonic imaging, design of the laminates (stacking sequences, orientation of fibers), and AE parametric plots. Thereafter, AE signals generated from the rest of the specimens were classified by supervised learning MLP. The network developed is made suitable for on-line monitoring of AE signals in the presence of noise, which can be used for detection and identification of failure modes and their growth. The results indicate that the characteristics of AE signals from different failure modes in CFRP remain largely unaffected by the type of load, fiber orientation, and stacking sequences, they being representatives of the type of failure phenomena. The type of loading can have effect only on the extent of damage allowed before the specimens fail and hence on the number of AE signals during the test. The artificial neural networks (ANN) developed and the methods and procedures adopted show significant success in AE signal characterization under noisy environment (detection and identification of failure modes and their growth).

Fuzzy-logic-based health monitoring and residual-life prediction for composite helicopter rotor

A health-monitoring and life-estimation strategy for composite rotor blades is developed in this work. The cross-sectional stiffness reduction obtained by physics-based models is expressed as a function of the life of the structure using a recent phenomenological damage model. This stiffness reduction is further used to study the behavior of measurable system parameters such as blade deflections, loads, and strains of a composite rotor blade in static analysis and forward flight. The simulated measurements are obtained using an aeroelastic analysis of the composite rotor blade based on the finite element in space and time with physics-based damage modes that are then linked to the life consumption of the blade. The model-based measurements are contaminated with noise to simulate real data. Genetic fuzzy systems are developed for global online prediction of physical damage and life consumption using displacement- and force-based measurement deviations between damaged and undamaged conditions. Furthermore, local online prediction of physical damage and life consumption is done using strains measured along the blade length. It is observed that the life consumption in the matrix-cracking zone is about 12-15% and life consumption in debonding/delamination zone is about 45-55% of the total life of the blade. It is also observed that the success rate of the genetic fuzzy systems depends upon the number of measurements, type of measurements and training, and the testing noise level. The genetic fuzzy systems work quite well with noisy data and are recommended for online structural health monitoring of composite helicopter rotor blades.

Evaluation of the AlgerBrush II rotating burr as a tool for inducing ocular surface failure in the New Zealand White rabbit

The New Zealand White rabbit has been widely used as a model of limbal stem cell deficiency (LSCD). Current techniques for experimental induction of LSCD utilize caustic chemicals, or organic solvents applied in conjunction with a surgical limbectomy. While generally successful in depleting epithelial progenitors, the depth and severity of injury is difficult to control using chemical-based methods. Moreover, the anterior chamber can be easily perforated while surgically excising the corneal limbus. In the interest of creating a safer and more defined LSCD model, we have therefore evaluated a mechanical debridement technique based upon use of the AlgerBrush II rotating burr. An initial comparison of debridement techniques was conducted in situ using 24 eyes in freshly acquired New Zealand White rabbit cadavers. Techniques for comparison (4 eyes each) included: (1) non-wounded control, (2) surgical limbectomy followed by treatment with 100% (v/v) n-heptanol to remove the corneal epithelium (1-2 minutes), (3) treatment of both limbus and cornea with n-heptanol alone, (4) treatment of both limbus and cornea with 20% (v/v) ethanol (2-3 minutes), (5) a 2.5-mm rounded burr applied to both the limbus and cornea, and (6) a 1-mm pointed burr applied to the limbus, followed by the 2.5-mm rounded burr applied to the cornea. All corneas were excised and processed for histology immediately following debridement. A panel of four assessors subsequently scored the degree of epithelial debridement within the cornea and limbus using masked slides. The 2.5-mm burr most consistently removed the corneal and limbal epithelia. Islands of limbal epithelial cells were occasionally retained following surgical limbectomy/heptanol treatment, or use of the 1-mm burr. Limbal epithelial cells were consistently retained following treatment with either ethanol or n-heptanol alone, with ethanol being the least effective treatment overall. The 2.5-mm burr method was subsequently evaluated in the right eye of 3 live rabbits by weekly clinical assessments (photography and slit lamp examination) for up to 5 weeks, followed by histological analyses (hematoxylin & eosin stain, periodic acid-Schiff stain and immunohistochemistry for keratin 3 and 13). All 3 eyes that had been completely debrided using the 2.5-mm burr displayed symptoms of ocular surface failure as defined by retention of a prominent epithelial defect (~40% of corneal surface at 5 weeks), corneal neovascularization (2 to 3 quadrants), reduced corneal transparency and conjunctivalization of the corneal surface (demonstrated by the presence of goblet cells and/or staining for keratin 13). In conclusion, our findings indicate that the AlgerBrush II rotating burr is an effective method for the establishment of ocular surface failure in New Zealand White rabbits. In particular, we recommend use of the 2.5-mm rotating burr for improved efficiency of epithelial debridement and safety compared to surgical limbectomy.