Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Added Value of Combining Value and Momentum Indicators in the Swiss Stock Market

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the added value of combining value and momentum indicators in the Swiss stock exchange. Value indicators employed are P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/CF, P/B ja P/S. Momentum indicators examined are 52-week high, acceleration rate, 12-month past return and 6-month past return. The thesis examines whether the composite value measures based on the above mentioned ratios can add value and whether the inclusion of momentum can further improve the risk return profile of the value portfolios. The data is gathered from the Swiss equity market during the sample period from May 2001 to May 2011. Previous studies have shown that composite value measures can somewhat add value to the value portfolio strategy. Similarly, recent academic literature have found evidence that momentum works well as a timing indicator for time to entry to value stocks. This study indicates that the added value of composite value measures exists. It also shows that momentum combined to acceleration rate can significantly improve the risk adjusted performance of value-only portfolios.

Effectiveness of Pilotage

The objective of the pilotage effectiveness study was to come up with a process descrip-tion of the pilotage procedure, to design performance indicators based on this process description, to be used by Finnpilot, and to work out a preliminary plan for the imple-mentation of the indicators within the Finnpilot organisation. The theoretical aspects of pilotage as well as the guidelines and standards used were determined through a literature review. Based on the literature review, a process flow model with the following phases was created: the planning of pilotage, the start of pilo-tage, the act of pilotage, the end of pilotage and the closing of pilotage. The model based on the literature review was tested through interviews and observation of pilotage. At the same time an e-mail survey directed at foreign pilotage organisations, which included a questionnaire concerning their standards and management systems, operations procedures, measurement tools and their attitude to the passage planning, was conducted. The main issues in the observations and interviews were the passage plan and the bridge team co-operation. The phases of the pilotage process model emerged in both the pilotage activities and the interviews whereas bridge team co-operation was relatively marginal. Most of the pilotage organisations, who responded to the query, also use some standard-based management system. All organisations who answered the survey use some sort of a pilotage process model. According to the query, the main measuring tools for pilotage are statistical information concerning pilotage and the organisations, the customer feedback surveys, and financial results. Attitudes to-wards passage planning were mostly positive among the organisations. A workshop with pilotage experts was arranged where the process model constructed on the basis of the literature review was tuned to match practical pilotage. In the workshop it was determined that certain phases and the corresponding tasks, through which pilo-tage can be described as a process, were identifiable in all pilotage. The result of the workshop was a complemented process model, which separates incoming and outgoing traffic, as well as the fairway pilotage and harbour pilotage from each other. Addition-ally indicators divided according to the data gathering method were defined. Data con-cerning safety and traffic flow is gathered in the form of customer feedback. The pilot's own perceptions of the pilotage process are gathered through self-assessment. The measurement data which is connected to the phases of the pilotage process is generated e.g. by gathering statistics of the success of the pilot dispatches, the accuracy of the pi-lotage and the incidents that occurred during the pilotage, near misses, deviations and accidents. The measurement data is collected via the PilotWeb at the closing of the pilo-tage. A separate project and a project group with pilots also participating will be established for the deployment of the performance indicators. The phases of the project are: the definition phase, the implementation phase and the deployment phase. The purpose of the definition phase is to prepare questions for ship commanders concerning the cus-tomer feedback questionnaire and also to work out the self-assessment queries and the queries concerning the process indicators.

Test of a microlysimeter for measurement of soil evaporation

Quantifying soil evaporation is required on studies of soil water balance and applications aiming to improve water use efficiency by crops. The performance of a microlysimeter (ML) to measure soil evaporation under irrigation and non-irrigation was evaluated. The MLs were constructed using PVC tubes, with dimensions of 100 mm inner diameter, 150 mm depth and 2.5 mm wall thickness. Four MLs were uniformly distributed on the soil surface of two weighing lysimeters conducted under bare soil, previously installed at Iapar, in Londrina, PR, Brazil. The lysimeters had 1.4 m width, 1.9 m length and 1.3 m depth and were conducted with and without irrigation. Evaporation measurements by MLs (E ML) were compared with measurements by lysimeters (E L) during four different periods in the year. Differences between E ML and E L were small either for low or high atmospheric demand and also for either irrigated or non-irrigated conditions, which indicates that the ML tested here is suitable for measurement of soil evaporation.

Material embodiment and energy flows as efficiency indicators of soybean (Glycine max) production in Brazil

As the requirement for agriculture to be environmentally suitable there is a necessity to adopt indicators and methodologies approaching sustainability. In Brazil, biodiesel addition into diesel is mandatory and soybean oil is its main source. The material embodiment determines the convergence of inputs into the crop. Moreover, the material flows are necessary for any environmental analysis. This study evaluated distinct production scenarios, and also conventional versus GMO crops, through the material embodiment and energy analysis. GMO crops demanded less indirectly applied inputs. The energy balance showed linearity with yield, whereas for EROI, the increases in input and yield were not affected.

Setting efficiency indicators for center pivots

In this study, it was discussed the efficiency criteria in each of the elements that compose a central pivot, and this analysis was applied to two sets of systems located in regions of Cruz Alta and Santo Augusto, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The methodology used combines water and energy assessment through an indicator called Normalized Specific Consumption in Irrigation (C ENI), allowing thus a comparison between equipment and projects. The C ENI in Cruz Alta region showed 72% of the equipment above the standard (8.68 kWh mm-1 ha-1 100m-1), and in Santo Augusto region 64.28% with consumption above the standard. The mean irrigation efficiency for Cruz Alta region was 29.85%, with standard deviation of 5.41%, and for Santo Augusto region, it was 29.02%, with standard deviation of 5.15%.

Measurement systems of soil water matric potential and evaluation of soil moisture under different irrigation depths

The development of new methodologies and tools that enable to determine the water content in soil is of fundamental importance to the practice of irrigation. The objective of this study was to evaluate soil matric potential using mercury tensiometer and puncture digital tensiometer, and to compare the gravimetric soil moisture values obtained by tensiometric system with gravimetric soil moisture obtained by neutron attenuation technique. Four experimental plots were maintained with different soil moisture by irrigation. Three repetitions of each type of tensiometer were installed at 0.20 m depth. Based on the soil matric potential and the soil water retention curve, the corresponding gravimetric soil moisture was determined. The data was then compared to those obtained by neutron attenuation technique. The results showed that both tensiometric methods showed no difference under soil matric potential higher than -40 kPa. However, under drier soil, when the water was replaced by irrigation, the soil matric potential of the puncture digital tensiometer was less than those of the mercury tensiometer.

Technical and economic indicators of the yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with underground water supply

The research aimed to quantify technical and economic indicators of yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with fractions of irrigation with underground source of water, to generate information that helps farmers in decision making on the implementation of investment in irrigated fruit growing (yellow passion fruit). For this purpose, we used the passion fruit crop irrigated with Microjet type irrigation system, with conducting system in simple espaliers. The treatments consisted of five hours of application of the depth of water required by the crop with irrigation frequency of two days. The results showed that the highest yield (16660kg ha-1) was obtained with the fractionation of irrigation twice a day (50% to 7h and 50% to 21h30), which provided an increase in productivity of 54%, demonstrating the financial viability and being highly profitable to the interest rate of 2% per year, with low sensitivity of financial risk to real interest rates above the prevailing market.

Water quality indicators for environmental and resistance profile of Escherichia coli strains isolated in Rio Cascavel, Paraná, Brazil

In this article it was evaluated the quality of water in the Cascavel river, in the city of Cascavel - Paraná using microbiological indicators, physical and chemical pollution and susceptibility / resistance in strains of Escherichia coli isolated antimicrobial trade. The water sampling was conducted between 2010-July and 2011-June at three points: a) near the source, b) urban area, c) rural area. The samples were analyzed for physical, chemical and microbiological variables: temperature, pH, color, turbidity, electrical conductivity, total nitrogen and total phosphorus, total coliforms (CT), fecal coliform (CTe) and Escherichia coli. Tests were also performed to nine antimicrobial commercial resistances. The variables studied indicated that the Cascavel river water was presented at disagreement with the resolution 357/2005 CONAMA (class I), ranking in the index as regular water quality. The physical, chemical and rainfall did not affect the growth of CT and CTe, with higher counts of E. coli in the urban area. The greatest resistance profiles of the strains of E. coli isolated from Cascavel river water was found in section 2, the urban area as a probable consequence of human influence on water quality.

Cloroplast pigments as indicators of lead stress

Plants respond to environmental adversities, becoming an indicator for assessing the environment quality. In this aspect, chlorophyll contents as well, carotenoids are used as a reliable indicator to associate environmental quality and pollution, mainly regarding the toxicity of heavy metals in higher plants. So, we aimed to evaluate the content of chlorophyll a, b, and total chlorophylls and carotenoids in plants vetiver [Vetiveria zizanioides (L.) Nash], maize (Zea mays L.) cv. AG 1051, sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) cv. BRS 122/V-2000, and castor beans (Ricinus communis L. ) cv . Northeastern BRS grown in contaminated soil with lead, with and without correction of soil pH, so they were used as indicators of metal stress by the soil. From the biochemical point of view, the correction of soil pH values caused chlorophyll a, b and total statistically higher for vetiver species and castor beans in the analyzed periods, except for the analysis performed 60 days after transplanting where only the species vetiver benefited from the correction of soil pH on the content of chlorophyll b and total. On the other hand plants without correction of soil pH showed a decrease of all chlorophyll levels. In addition, the largest increase in the synthesis of carotenoids, indicated that under stress the plants have developed alternative routes of dissipation of energy in order to avoid problems of photo-inhibition and photo-oxidation.

Design of Pulsed Electroacoustic Measurement System for Space Charge Characterisation

Pulsed electroacoustic (PEA) method is a commonly used non-destructive technique for investigating space charges. It has been developed since early 1980s. These days there is continuing interest for better understanding of the influence of space charge on the reliability of solid electrical insulation under high electric field. The PEA method is widely used for space charge profiling for its robust and relatively inexpensive features. The PEA technique relies on a voltage impulse used to temporarily disturb the space charge equilibrium in a dielectric. The acoustic wave is generated by charge movement in the sample and detected by means of a piezoelectric film. The spatial distribution of the space charge is contained within the detected signal. The principle of such a system is already well established, and several kinds of setups have been constructed for different measurement needs. This thesis presents the design of a PEA measurement system as a systems engineering project. The operating principle and some recent developments are summarised. The steps of electrical and mechanical design of the instrument are discussed. A common procedure for measuring space charges is explained and applied to verify the functionality of the system. The measurement system is provided as an additional basic research tool for the Corporate Research Centre of ABB (China) Ltd. It can be used to characterise flat samples with thickness of 0.2–0.5 mm under DC stress. The spatial resolution of the measurement is 20 μm.

Katsastuksen teknisen laadun mittaaminen ja johtaminen

Suorituskyvyn mittaamisella on monia myönteisiä vaikutuksia koko organisaation toimintaan. Mittaamisen avulla toimintaa voidaan johtaa haluttuun suuntaan. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia, minkälainen suorituskykymittaristo tarvitaan katsastusyrityksen ylimmän johdon käyttöön, jotta katsastuksen teknisen laadun johtaminen mahdollistuisi. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli rakentaa katsastuksen teknisen laadun suorituskykymittaristo ylimmälle johdolle. Katsastuksen tekninen laatu on keskeinen kysymys katsastusyritysten olemassaololle. Tekninen laatu on koko katsastustoiminnan perusta, jonka päälle liiketoiminta voidaan rakentaa. Ilman tätä perustaa ei ole jatkuvuutta liiketoiminnalle. Teknisen laadun mittaaminen ei kuitenkaan ole tällä hetkellä järjestelmällistä, eikä käytettävissä ole ollut tehtävään soveltuvaa mittaristoa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin A-Katsastus Oy:n vuosien 2008–2011 aikana syntyneitä katsastustilastoja. Tilastollista prosessin valvonta-menetelmää (SPC) soveltamalla määritettiin toimipaikka- ja katsastajakohtaiset valvontarajat hylkäysprosenteille ja vikojen määrille. Valvontarajojen avulla rakennettiin katsastuksen teknisen laadun suorituskykymittaristo toimiala-, yritys-, toimipaikka- ja katsastajatasoille. Mittariston avulla voidaan asettaa tekniselle laadulle tavoitteet, seurata tavoitteiden toteumaa ja käynnistää tarvittaessa korjaavat toimenpiteet.

Testate amoebae (thecamoebians) as indicators of aquatic mine impact

The environmental impacts of a single mine often remain local, but acidic and metal-rich acid mine drainage (AMD) from the waste materials may pose a serious threat to adjacent surface waters and their ecosystems. Testate amoebae (thecamoebian) analysis was used together with lake sediment geochemistry to study and evaluate the ecological effects of sulphidic metal mines on aquatic environments. Three different mines were included in the study: Luikonlahti Cu-mine in Kaavi, eastern Finland, Haveri Cu-Au mine in Ylöjärvi, southern Finland and Pyhäsalmi Zn-Cu-S mine in Pyhäjärvi, central Finland. Luikonlahti and Haveri are closed mines, but Pyhäsalmi is still operating. The sampling strategy was case specific, and planned to provide a representative sediment sample series to define natural background conditions, to detect spatial and temporal variations in mine impacts, to evaluate the possible recovery after the peak contamination, and to distinguish the effects of other environmental factors from the mining impacts. In the Haveri case, diatom analyses were performed alongside thecamoebian analysis to evaluate the similarities and differences between the two proxies. The results of the analyses were investigated with multivariate methods (direct and indirect ordinations, diversity and distance measure indices). Finally, the results of each case study were harmonized, pooled, and jointly analyzed to summarize the results for this dissertation. Geochemical results showed broadly similar temporal patterns in each case. Concentrations of ions in the pre-disturbance samples defined the natural baseline against which other results were compared. The beginning of the mining activities had only minor impacts on sediment geochemistry, mainly appearing as an increased clastic input into the lakes at Haveri and Pyhäsalmi. The active mining phase was followed by the metallic contamination and, subsequently, by the most recent change towards decreased but still elevated metal concentrations in the sediments. Because of the delay in the oxidation of waste material and formation of AMD, the most intense, but transient metal contamination phase occurred in the post-mining period at Luikonlahti and Haveri. At Pyhäsalmi, the highest metal contamination preceded effluent mitigation actions. Spatial gradients were observed besides the temporal evolution in both the pre-disturbance and mine-impacted samples from Luikonlahti and Pyhäsalmi. The geochemical gradients varied with distance from the main source of contaminants (dispersion and dilution) and with water depth (redox and pH). The spatial extent of the highest metal contamination associated with these mines remained rather limited. At Haveri, the metallic impact was widespread, with the upstream site in another lake basin found to be contaminated. Changes in thecamoebian assemblages corresponded well with the geochemical results. Despite some differences, the general features and ecological responses of the faunal assemblages were rather similar in each lake. Constantly abundant strains of Difflugia oblonga, Difflugia protaeiformis and centropyxids formed the core of these assemblages. Increasing proportions of Cucurbitella tricuspis towards the surface samples were found in all of the cases. The results affirmed the indicator value of some already known indicator forms, but such as C. tricuspis and higher nutrient levels, but also elicited possible new ones such as D. oblonga ‘spinosa’ and clayey substrate, high conductivity and/or alkalinity, D. protaeiformis ‘multicornis’ and pH, water hardness and the amount of clastic material and Centropyxis constricta ‘aerophila’ and high metal and S concentrations. In each case, eutrophication appeared to be the most important environmental factor, masking the effects of other variables. Faunal responses to high metal inputs in sediments remained minor, but were nevertheless detectable. Besides the trophic state of the lake, numerical methods suggested overall geochemical conditions (pH, redox) to be the most important factor at Luikonlahti, whereas the Haveri results showed the clearest connection between metals and amoebae. At Pyhäsalmi, the strongest relationships were found between Ca- and S-rich present loading, redox conditions and substrate composition. Sediment geochemistry and testate amoeba analysis proved to be a suitable combination of methods to detect and describe the aquatic mine impacts in each specific case, to evaluate recovery and to differentiate between the effects of different anthropogenic and natural environmental factors. It was also suggested that aquatic mine impacts can be significantly mitigated by careful design and after-care of the waste facilities, especially by reducing and preventing AMD. The case-specific approach is nevertheless necessary because of the unique characteristics of each mine and variations in the environmental background conditions.

Design of Instrument for Knee Joint Kinematics Measurement

This thesis describes the process of design and modeling of instrument for knee joint kinematics measurement that can work for both in-vivo and in-vitro subjects. It is designed to be compatible with imaging machine in a sagittal plane. Due to the invasiveness of the imaging machine, the instrument is designed to be able to function independently. The flexibility of this instrument allows to measure anthropometrically different subject. Among the sixth degree of freedom of a knee, three rotational and one translational degree of freedom can be measured for both type of subject. The translational, proximal-distal, motion is stimulated by external force directly applied along its axis. These angular and linear displacements are measured by magnetic sensors and high precision potentiometers respectively