867 resultados para global warming potential


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Since 2000 long-term measurements of vertical particle flux have been performed with moored sediment traps at the long-term observatory HAUSGARTEN in the eastern Fram Strait (79°N/4°E). The study area, which is seasonally covered with ice, is located in the confluence zone of the northward flowing warm saline Atlantic water with cold, low salinity water masses of Arctic origin. Current projections suggest that this area is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Total matter fluxes and components thereof (carbonate, particulate organic carbon and nitrogen, biogenic silica, biomarkers) revealed a bimodal seasonal pattern showing elevated sedimentation rates during May/June and August/September. Annual total matter flux (dry weight, DW) at ~ 300 m depth varied between 13 and 32 g/m**2/a during 2000 and 2005. Of this total flux 6-13 % was due to CaCO3, 4-21 % to refractory particulate organic carbon (POC), and 3-8 % to biogenic particulate silica (bPSi). The annual flux of all biogenic components together was almost constant during the period studied (8.5-8.8 g/m**2/a), although this varied from 27 to 67 % of the total annual flux. The fraction was lowest in a year characterized by the longest duration of ice coverage (91 and 70 days for the calendar year and summer season, May-September, respectively). Biomarker analyses revealed that organic matter originating from marine sources was present in excess of terrigenious material in the sedimented matter throughout most of the study period. Fluxes of recognizable phyto- and protozooplankton cells amounted up to 60x106 m**2/d. Diatoms and coccolithophorids were the most abundant organisms. Diatoms, mainly pennate species, dominated during the first years of the investigation. A shift in the composition occurred during the last year when numbers of diatoms declined considerably, leading to a dominance of coccolithoporids. This was also reflected in a decrease in the sedimentation of bPSi. The sedimentation of biogenic matter, however, did not differ from the amount observed during the previous years. Among the larger organisms, pteropods at times contributed significantly to both the total matter and CaCO3, fluxes.

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Global warming is expected to be most pronounced in the Arctic where permafrost thaw and release of old carbon may provide an important feedback mechanism to the climate system. To better understand and predict climate effects and feedbacks on the cycling of elements within and between ecosystems in northern latitude landscapes, a thorough understanding of the processes related to transport and cycling of elements is required. A fundamental requirement to reach a better process understanding is to have access to high-quality empirical data on chemical concentrations and biotic properties for a wide range of ecosystem domains and functional units (abiotic and biotic pools). The aim of this study is therefore to make one of the most extensive field data sets from a periglacial catchment readily available that can be used both to describe present-day periglacial processes and to improve predictions of the future. Here we present the sampling and analytical methods, field and laboratory equipment and the resulting biogeochemical data from a state-of-the-art whole-ecosystem investigation of the terrestrial and aquatic parts of a lake catchment in the Kangerlussuaq region, West Greenland. This data set allows for the calculation of whole-ecosystem mass balance budgets for a long list of elements, including carbon, nutrients and major and trace metals.

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Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change with estimates of rapid rates of changing species distribution limits that are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations have yielded new insight into continental vegetation histories, challenging traditional interpretations that had been based on pollen data. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe Methods: We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting change in distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000 years. Results: Our analyses confirm high rates of postglacial spread with at least 1000 metres per year for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400 metres per year for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions: The calculated rates of postglacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with the common tree species rapidly tracking early Holocene climate change and contribute to the debate on the consequences of global warming for plant distributions.

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Methane hydrate is an ice-like substance that is stable at high-pressure and low temperature in continental margin sediments. Since the discovery of a large number of gas flares at the landward termination of the gas hydrate stability zone off Svalbard, there has been concern that warming bottom waters have started to dissociate large amounts of gas hydrate and that the resulting methane release may possibly accelerate global warming. Here, we can corroborate that hydrates play a role in the observed seepage of gas, but we present evidence that seepage off Svalbard has been ongoing for at least three thousand years and that seasonal fluctuations of 1-2°C in the bottom-water temperature cause periodic gas hydrate formation and dissociation, which focus seepage at the observed sites.

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Future scenarios for the oceans project combined developments of CO2 accumulation and global warming and their impact on marine ecosystems. The synergistic impact of both factors was addressed by studying the effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on thermal tolerance of the cold-eurythermal spider crab Hyas araneus from the population around Helgoland. Here ambient temperatures characterize the southernmost distribution limit of this species. Animals were exposed to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2), CO2 levels expected towards 2100 (710 ppm) and beyond (3000 ppm). Heart rate and haemolymph PO2 (PeO2) were measured during progressive short term cooling from 10 to 0°C and during warming from 10 to 25°C. An increase of PeO2 occurred during cooling, the highest values being reached at 0°C under all three CO2 levels. Heart rate increased during warming until a critical temperature (Tc) was reached. The putative Tc under normocapnia was presumably >25°C, from where it fell to 23.5°C under 710 ppm and then 21.1°C under 3000 ppm. At the same time, thermal sensitivity, as seen in the Q10 values of heart rate, rose with increasing CO2concentration in the warmth. Our results suggest a narrowing of the thermal window of Hyas araneus under moderate increases in CO2 levels by exacerbation of the heat or cold induced oxygen and capacity limitation of thermal tolerance.

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During the early Eocene, a series of short-term global warming events ("hyperthermals") occurred in response to the rapid release of carbon into the oceans and atmosphere. In order to investigate the response of ocean redox to global warming, we have determined the molybdenum isotope compositions (d98/95Mo) of samples spanning one such hyperthermal (Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2, 54.1 Ma)), from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 302 Site M0004A in the Arctic Ocean. The highest d98/95Mo in our sample set (2.00 ± 0.11 per mil) corresponds to the development of local euxinia at Site M0004A during the peak of ETM-2, which we interpret as recording the global seawater d98/95Mo at that time. The ETM-2 seawater d98/95Mo is indistinguishable from a recent estimate of seawater d98/95Mo from an earlier hyperthermal (Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.9 Ma), d98/95Mo = 2.08 ± 0.11 per mil). We argue that the similarity in seawater d98/95Mo during ETM-2 and the PETM was caused by the development of transient euxinia in the Arctic Ocean during each hyperthermal that allowed sediments accumulating in this basin to capture the long-term d98/95Mo of early Eocene seawater. Our new data therefore place a minimum constraint on the magnitude of transient global seafloor deoxygenation during early Eocene hyperthermals.

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Although anthropogenic infuences such as global warming, overfishing, and eutrophication may contribute to jellyfish blooms, little is known about the effects of ocean acidification on jellyfish. Most medusae form statoliths of calcium sulfate hemihydrate that are components of their balance organs (statocysts). This study was designed to test the effects of pH (7.9, within the average current range, 7.5, expected by 2100, and 7.2, expected by 2300) combined with two temperatures (9 and 15°C) on asexual reproduction and statolith formation of the moon jellyfish, Aurelia labiata. Polyp survival was 100% after 122 d in seawater in all six temperature and pH combinations. Because few polyps at 9°C strobilated, and temperature effects on budding were consistent with published results, we did not analyze data from those three treatments further. At 15°C, there were no significant effects of pH on the numbers of ephyrae or buds produced per polyp or on the numbers of statoliths per statocyst; however, statolith size was signi?cantly smaller in ephyrae released from polyps reared at low pH. Our results indicate that A. labiata polyps are quite tolerant of low pH, surviving and reproducing asexually even at the lowest tested pH; however, the effects of small statoliths on ephyra fitness are unknown. Future research on the behavior of ephyrae with small statoliths would further our understanding of how ocean acidi?cation may affect jellyfish survival in nature.

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There are serious concerns that ocean acidification will combine with the effects of global warming to cause major shifts in marine ecosystems, but there is a lack of field data on the combined ecological effects of these changes due to the difficulty of creating large-scale, long-term exposures to elevated CO2 and temperature. Here we report the first coastal transplant experiment designed to investigate the effects of naturally acidified seawater on the rates of net calcification and dissolution of the branched calcitic bryozoan Myriapora truncata (Pallas, 1766). Colonies were transplanted to normal (pH 8.1), high (mean pH 7.66, minimum value 7.33) and extremely high CO2 conditions (mean pH 7.43, minimum value 6.83) at gas vents off Ischia Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy). The net calcification rates of live colonies and the dissolution rates of dead colonies were estimated by weighing after 45 days (May-June 2008) and after 128 days (July-October) to examine the hypothesis that high CO2 levels affect bryozoan growth and survival differently during moderate and warm water conditions. In the first observation period, seawater temperatures ranged from 19 to 24 °C; dead M. truncata colonies dissolved at high CO2 levels (pH 7.66), whereas live specimens maintained the same net calcification rate as those growing at normal pH. In extremely high CO2 conditions (mean pH 7.43), the live bryozoans calcified significantly less than those at normal pH. Therefore, established colonies of M. truncata seem well able to withstand the levels of ocean acidification predicted in the next 200 years, possibly because the soft tissues protect the skeleton from an external decrease in pH. However, during the second period of observation a prolonged period of high seawater temperatures (25-28 °C) halted calcification both in controls and at high CO2, and all transplants died when high temperatures were combined with extremely high CO2 levels. Clearly, attempts to predict the future response of organisms to ocean acidification need to consider the effects of concurrent changes such as the Mediterranean trend for increased summer temperatures in surface waters. Although M. truncata was resilient to short-term exposure to high levels of ocean acidification at normal temperatures, our field transplants showed that its ability to calcify at higher temperatures was compromised, adding it to the growing list of species now potentially threatened by global warming.

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Global warming is real and has been with us for at least two decades. Questions arise regarding the response of the ocean to greenhouse forcing, including expectations for changes in ocean circulation, in uptake of excess carbon dioxide, and in upwelling activity. The large climate variations of the ice ages, within the last million years, offer the opportunity to study responses of the ocean to climate change. A histogram of sealevel positions for the last 700,000 years (based on a new d/sup 18/O stratigraphy here compiled) shows that the present is near the margin of the range of fluctuations, with only 6 percent of positions indicating a warmer climate. Thus, the future will be largely outside of experience with regard to fluctuations of the recent geologic past. The same is true for greenhouse forcing. Our inability to explain sudden climate change in the past, including the rapid rise of carbon dioxide during deglaciation, and differences in ocean productivity between glacial and interglacial conditions, demonstrates a lack of understanding that makes predictions suspect. This is the lesson from ice age studies.

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The Arctic is responding more rapidly to global warming than most other areas on our planet. Northward flowing Atlantic Water is the major means of heat advection towards the Arctic and strongly affects the sea ice distribution. Records of its natural variability are critical for the understanding of feedback mechanisms and the future of the Arctic climate system, but continuous historical records reach back only ~150 years. Here, we present a multidecadal scale record of ocean temperature variations during the last 2000 years, derived from marine sediments off Western Svalbard (79°N). We find that early-21st-century temperatures of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic Amplification of global warming.

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Morphological, anatomical and physiological plant and leaf traits of A. distorta, an endemic species of the Central Apennines on the Majella Massif, growing at 2,675 m a.s.l, were analyzed. The length of the phenological cycle starts immediately after the snowmelt at the end of May, lasting 128 ± 10 days. The low A. distorta height  (Hmax= 64 ± 4 mm) and total leaf area (TLA= 38 ± 9 cm2) associated to a high leaf mass area (LMA =11.8±0.6 mg cm−2) and a relatively high leaf tissue density (LTD = 124.6±14.3 mg cm−3) seem to be adaptive traits to the stress factors of the environment where it grows. From a physiological point of view, the high A. distorta photosynthetic rates (PN =19.6 ± 2.3 µmol m−2 s−1) and total chlorophyll content (Chla+b = 0.88 ± 0.13 mg g−1) in July are justified by the favorable temperature. PN decreases by 87% in September at the beginning of plant senescence. Photosynthesis and leaf respiration (RD) variations allow A. distorta to maintain a positive carbon balance during the growing season becoming indicative of the efficiency of plant carbon use. The results could be an important tool for conservation programmes of the A. distorta wild populations.

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A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollutionand fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.

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A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollutionand fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.

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Calcifying marine phytoplankton - coccolithophores - are some of the most successful yet enigmatic organisms in the ocean, and are at risk from global change. In order to better understand how they will be affected we need to know 'why' coccolithophores calcify. Here we review coccolithophorid evolutionary history, cell biology, and insights from recent experiments to provide a critical assessment of the costs and benefits of calcification. We conclude that calcification has high energy demands, and that coccolithophores might have calcified initially to reduce grazing pressure, but that additional benefits such as protection from photo-damage and viral-bacterial attack further explain their high diversity and broad spectrum ecology. The cost-versus-benefit of these traits is illustrated by novel ecosystem modeling, although conclusive observations are still limited. In the future ocean, the trade-off between changing ecological and physiological costs of calcification and their benefits will ultimately decide how this important group is affected by ocean acidification and global warming.

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Calcifying marine phytoplankton - coccolithophores - are some of the most successful yet enigmatic organisms in the ocean, and are at risk from global change. In order to better understand how they will be affected we need to know 'why' coccolithophores calcify. Here we review coccolithophorid evolutionary history, cell biology, and insights from recent experiments to provide a critical assessment of the costs and benefits of calcification. We conclude that calcification has high energy demands, and that coccolithophores might have calcified initially to reduce grazing pressure, but that additional benefits such as protection from photo-damage and viral-bacterial attack further explain their high diversity and broad spectrum ecology. The cost-versus-benefit of these traits is illustrated by novel ecosystem modeling, although conclusive observations are still limited. In the future ocean, the trade-off between changing ecological and physiological costs of calcification and their benefits will ultimately decide how this important group is affected by ocean acidification and global warming.