Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Effects of a resistance and stretching training program on forward head and protracted shoulder posture in physical education classes in students aged 15-17 years old

Purpose: This study aimed to characterize the postural alignment of the head and shoulder in the sagittal plane of Portuguese adolescents, 15-17 years old, and to evaluate the effects of a 32-week resistance and stretching training program applied in Physical Education classes on forward head posture and protracted shoulder posture of Portuguese adolescents. After 32-training weeks the detraining effects after a 16-week period were measured. Methods: This randomized and controlled study was conducted in two secondary schools in Portugal for 48 weeks. Prior the study 275 students aged 15-17 years old were evaluated. Sagittal head, cervical and shoulder angle were measured with photogrammetry and Postural Analysis Software. After this assessment 130 adolescents were considered to have forward head and protracted shoulder posture and were randomly assigned to a control group, an experimental group one or experimental group two. The control group (n=46) only did the Physical Education classes whereas the intervention group one (n=42) and two (n=42) performed a 16-week and 32-week stretching and strengthening program in addition to Physical Education classes, respectively. The postural angles were measured before and after the 16-week and 32-week time intervention period for the three groups and after a 16-week detraining period following the 32-week in intervention group two. Results: 68% of the adolescents studied revealed anteriorization of the head whereas 58% of them had protraction of the shoulder. Significant increases were observed in the cervical and shoulder angle in the experimental group (n=84) following the 16-week and in experimental group two (n=42)after the 32 week-intervention period. After the 16-week detraining period no significant differences were observed in the three postural angles in the intervention group two. Conclusions: Forward head and protracted shoulder are common postural disorders in Portuguese adolescents. The exercise intervention was successful ate decreasing forward head and protracted shoulder in adolescents. Detraining period of 16-week didn´t reduce the overall training effects.

A study of employee affective organisational commitment and retention in Pakistan:the roles of psychological contract breach and norms of reciprocity

Social exchange theory and notions of reciprocity have long been assumed to explain the relationship between psychological contract breach and important employee outcomes. To date, however, there has been no explicit testing of these assumptions. This research, therefore, explores the mediating role of negative, generalized, and balanced reciprocity, in the relationships between psychological contract breach and employees’ affective organizational commitment and turnover intentions. A survey of 247 Pakistani employees of a large public university was analyzed using structural equation modeling and bootstrapping techniques, and provided excellent support for our model. As predicted, psychological contract breach was positively related to negative reciprocity norms and negatively related to generalized and balanced reciprocity norms. Negative and generalized (but not balanced) reciprocity were negatively and positively (respectively) related to employees’ affective organizational commitment and fully mediated the relationship between psychological contract breach and affective organizational commitment. Moreover, affective organizational commitment fully mediated the relationship between generalized and negative reciprocity and employees’ turnover intentions. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Bringing forward semantic relations: Issues and proposals

Semantic relations are an important element in the construction of ontologies and models of problem domains. Nevertheless, they remain fuzzy or under-specified. This is a pervasive problem in software engineering and artificial intelligence. Thus, we find semantic links that can have multiple interpretations in wide-coverage ontologies, semantic data models with abstractions that are not enough to capture the relation richness of problem domains, and improperly structured taxonomies. However, if relations are provided with precise semantics, some of these problems can be avoided, and meaningful operations can be performed on them. In this paper we present some insightful issues about the modeling, representation and usage of relations including the available taxonomy structuring methodologies as well as the initiatives aiming to provide relations with precise semantics. Moreover, we explain and propose the control of relations as a key issue for the coherent construction of ontologies.

Review of Program Integrity Operations At Six Managed Care Organizations Delivering Medicaid Services under a Contract with the South Carolina Department of Health & Human Services

The State contracted with six managed care organizations to deliver Medicaid managed care at an annual cost of $2.7 billion, representing 10% of the State’s annual budget, to 750,000 Medicaid beneficiaries in South Carolina. This review’s scope and objectives were: Test the six MCOs’ compliance and effective execution of the SCDHHS’s managed care contract “Section 11 - Program Integrity” focusing on the operational components of pre-payment review and post-payment review. Identify opportunities to improve SCDHHS’s biennial managed care contract, contract monitoring, and MCO compliance and effective execution of the contract.

An Analysis of the Early Prediction of Highway Construction Project Completion using the Contract Status Report

History has shown that projects move in and out of poor status through the life of the project. Predicting the success or failure of a project to complete on time because of its recent history on the contract status report could provide our project managers another tool for monitoring contract progress. In many instances, poor contract progress results in the loss of contract time and late completion of projects. This research evaluates the combinations of work type, point in time physical work begins, recent poor status, and contract bid amount as indicators of late project completion.

Allegation of a Violation of the State Procurement Code and Other Issues Related to a Statewide Term Contract Involving the Department of Revenue and the Department of Health and Environmental Control

A complainant alleged the Department of Revenue violated the South Carolina Procurement Code. This paper examines that complaint.

Implications of Blockchain-Based Smart Contracts on Contract Law

Smart contracts are the most advanced blockchain applications. They can also be used in the contractual domain for the encoding and automatic execution of contract terms. Smart contracts already existed before the blockchain, but they take advantage of the characteristics of that technology. Namely, the decentralised and immutable characters of the blockchain determine that no single contracting party can control, modify, or interrupt the execution of smart contracts. As every new phenomenon, blockchain-based smart contracts have attracted the attention of institutions. For example, in its Resolution of 3 October 2018 on distributed ledger technologies and blockchain, the European Parliament has stressed the need to undertake an in-depth assessment of the legal implications,starting from the analysis of existing legal frameworks. Indeed, the present research thesis aims to verify how blockchain-based smart contracts fit into contract law. To this end, the analysis starts from the most discussed and relevant aspects and develops further considerations. Before that, it provides a detailed description and clarifications about the characteristics, the functioning, and the development of the technology, which is an essential starting point for a high-level quality legal analysis. It takes into considerations already existing rules concerning the use of technology in the life cycle of contracts, from vending machines to computable contracts, and verifies its applicability to blockchain-based smart contracts. The work does not limit to consider the mere technology, but some concrete scenarios of adoption of blockchain-based smart contracts in the contractual domain. Starting from the latter, it focuses on the implications of blockchain-based smart contracts on contract formation, contract performance, and applicable law and jurisdiction.

Reasonableness in European and Chinese Contract Law. A Comparative Law Study

Contemporary private law, in teh last few decades, TEMPhas been increasingly characterized by teh spread of general clauses and standards and by teh growing role of interpreters in teh framework of teh sources of law. dis process TEMPhas also consistently effected those systems dat are not typically centered on judge-made law. In particular in contract law general clauses and standards has assumed a leading role and has become protagonists of processes of integration and harmonization of teh law. Wifin dis context, teh reasonableness clause TEMPhas come to teh attention of scholars, emerging as a new element of connection between different legal systems -first of all between common law and civil law – and even between different legal traditions. dis research aims at reconstructing teh patterns of emersion and evolution of teh TEMPprincipal of reasonableness in contract law both wifin European Union Law and in teh Chinese legal system, in order to identify evolutionary trends, processes of emersion and circulation of legal models and teh scope of operation of teh TEMPprincipal in teh two contexts. In view of teh increasingly intense economic relations between Europe and China, wifin teh framework of teh new project called Belt and Road Initiative, a comparative survey of dis type can foster mutual understanding and make communications more TEMPeffective, at teh level of legal culture and commercial relations, and to support teh processes of supranational harmonization of contract law rules.

Physical activity and osseointegration: "step forward" to improve the quality of life of a trans-femoral amputee person

Lower limb amputation is an event that inevitably changes the lifestyle of the person with a significant impact on quality of life. The socket-type prosthesis entails that the residual limb is in direct contact with the socket which often implies numerous disadvantages. Osseointegrated prosthesis is a solution that avoids skin problems because not include the presence of the socket. In this type of prosthesis, a stem is surgically inserted inside the medullary canal and connected with the external prosthetic limb. Therefore, this thesis aims to highlight and explore the main strengths and problems of osseointegrated prostheses and to examine the role of physical activity, with attention to functional capacity and bone quality. The objectives of the thesis will be developed through 5 studies: (I) A gait analysis of a 44 years-old male patient who underwent surgery for the implantation of an osseointegrated prosthesis; (II) A systematic review to investigate the state of stump bone quality in patients with limb amputations; (III) A systematic review of the technologies involved in such devices has been carried out to identify the most fruitful ones in improving bone quality; (IV) A systematic review investigating the topic of physical activity and bone turnover biomarkers; (V) A systematic review to investigate the effects of physical activity interventions combined with drug treatments on bone biomarkers in people with osteopenia and osteoporosis. The integrated prosthesis is a good solution for people with lower limb amputation who cannot use their traditional socket-type prosthesis. Although many objectives have already been achieved, there are still many aspects that we can improve. These include the creation of a multidisciplinary path that support patients along their path, with particular attention to the pre-surgery and the post-rehabilitation phase that is still lacking even if of fundamental impact in determining the quality of life.

Beyond pollinator reward: steps forward and knowledge gaps on the role of floral nectar in plant-animal interactions.

The work done within the framework of my PhD project has been carried out between November 2019 and January 2023 at the Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences of the University of Bologna, under the supervision of Prof. Marta Galloni and PhD Gherardo Bogo. A period of three months was spent at the Natural History Museum of Rijeka, under the supervision of Prof. Boštjan Surina. The main aim of the thesis was to investigate further the so-called pollinator manipulation hypothesis, which states that when a floral visitor gets in contact with a specific nectar chemistry, the latter affects its behavior of visit on flowers, with potential repercussions on the plant reproductive fitness. To the purpose, the topic was tackled by means of three main approaches: field studies, laboratory assessments, and bibliographic reviews. This research project contributes to two main aspects. First, when insects encounter nectar-like concentrations of a plethora of secondary metabolites in their food-environment, various aspects of their behavior relevant to flower visitation can be affected. In addition, the results I gained confirm that the combination of field studies and laboratory assessments allows to get more realistic pictures of a given phenomenon than the single approaches. Second, reviewing the existent literature in the field of nectar ecology has highlighted how crucial is to establish the origin of nectar biogenic amines to either confirm or reject the multiple speculations made on the role of nectar microbes in shaping plant-animal interactions.

Gestione della disponibilità nella catena di distribuzione del sangue con Smart Contract in Ethereum

All’inizio di questa tesi viene discusso il funzionamento delle tecnologie visionate, Bitcoin ed Ethereum, cercando di identificarne i punti principali e salienti: la gestione delle transazioni, le tipologie di Blockchain adottate oggi e l’introduzione degli Smart Contract per sviluppare applicazioni decentralizzate. Successivamente viene considerato il caso di studio, il quale sottolinea la distribuzione delle sacche di sangue tra un centro trasfusionale e un’azienda sanitaria, con lo scopo di mettere in evidenza le interazioni tra queste, concentrandosi sulla disponibilità. Infine, dopo un’analisi del linguaggio Solidity e dopo la descrizione della modalità di sviluppo adottata accompagnata da una fase di testing, viene esposta l’implementazione realizzata concentrandosi sui dettagli delle funzionalità proposte.

Un modello forward-backward per i certificati verdi nel mercato EU ETS

In questa tesi viene presentato un modello stocastico forward-backward per la valutazione dei certificati verdi nel mercato EU ETS (European Union Emissions Trading Scheme). Anzitutto si spiega l’origine di tale mercato, per poi descriverne il funzionamento e lo scopo. Vengono, quindi, introdotte le equazioni differenziali stocastiche backward lineari, per le quali si mostra un risultato di esistenza e unicità della soluzione. Conseguentemente vengono inquadrati matematicamente i sistemi differenziali stocastici forward-backward, mostrando una loro applicazione nell’ambito del option pricing. Viene quindi derivato il modello forward-backward per la valutazione delle quote di emissione. Il prezzo dei certificati verdi è trovato come soluzione di un’equazione differenziale alle derivate parziali semilineare. L'ultima parte è dedicata all’analisi numerica di tale PDE. Infine viene trattata la valutazione di opzioni europee scritte sulle quote di emissione.

Proof of Location through a Blockchain Agnostic Smart Contract Language: Design and Evaluation over Algorand and Ethereum

Le applicazioni che offrono servizi sulla base della posizione degli utenti sono sempre più utilizzate, a partire dal navigatore fino ad arrivare ai sistemi di trasporto intelligenti (ITS) i quali permetteranno ai veicoli di comunicare tra loro. Alcune di questi servizi permettono perfino di ottenere qualche incentivo se l'utente visita o passa per determinate zone. Per esempio un negozio potrebbe offrire dei coupon alle persone che si trovano nei paraggi. Tuttavia, la posizione degli utenti è facilmente falsificabile, ed in quest'ultima tipologia di servizi, essi potrebbero ottenere gli incentivi in modo illecito, raggirando il sistema. Diviene quindi necessario implementare un'architettura in grado di impedire alle persone di falsificare la loro posizione. A tal fine, numerosi lavori sono stati proposti, i quali delegherebbero la realizzazione di "prove di luogo" a dei server centralizzati oppure collocherebbero degli access point in grado di rilasciare prove o certificati a quegli utenti che si trovano vicino. In questo lavoro di tesi abbiamo ideato un'architettura diversa da quelle dei lavori correlati, cercando di utilizzare le funzionalità offerte dalla tecnologia blockchain e dalla memorizzazione distribuita. In questo modo è stato possibile progettare una soluzione che fosse decentralizzata e trasparente, assicurando l'immutabilità dei dati mediante l'utilizzo della blockchain. Inoltre, verrà dettagliato un'idea di caso d'uso da realizzare utilizzando l'architettura da noi proposta, andando ad evidenziare i vantaggi che, potenzialmente, si potrebbero trarre da essa. Infine, abbiamo implementato parte del sistema in questione, misurando i tempi ed i costi richiesti dalle transazioni su alcune delle blockchain disponibili al giorno d'oggi, utilizzando le infrastrutture messe a disposizione da Ethereum, Polygon e Algorand.