Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Variation in Current Management of Term and Late-preterm Neonates at Risk for Early-onset Sepsis: An International Survey and Review of Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty about the presence of infection results in unnecessary and prolonged empiric antibiotic treatment of newborns at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). This study evaluates the impact of this uncertainty on the diversity in management. METHODS: A web-based survey with questions addressing management of infection risk-adjusted scenarios was performed in Europe, North America, and Australia. Published national guidelines (n = 5) were reviewed and compared with the results of the survey. RESULTS: 439 Clinicians (68% were neonatologists) from 16 countries completed the survey. In the low-risk scenario, 29% would start antibiotic therapy and 26% would not, both groups without laboratory investigations; 45% would start if laboratory markers were abnormal. In the high-risk scenario, 99% would start antibiotic therapy. In the low-risk scenario, 89% would discontinue antibiotic therapy before 72 hours. In the high-risk scenario, 35% would discontinue therapy before 72 hours, 56% would continue therapy for 5-7 days, and 9% for more than 7 days. Laboratory investigations were used in 31% of scenarios for the decision to start, and in 72% for the decision to discontinue antibiotic treatment. National guidelines differ considerably regarding the decision to start in low-risk and regarding the decision to continue therapy in higher risk situations. CONCLUSIONS: There is a broad diversity of clinical practice in management of EOS and a lack of agreement between current guidelines. The results of the survey reflect the diversity of national guidelines. Prospective studies regarding management of neonates at risk of EOS with safety endpoints are needed.

An ABC for decision making

The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.

Magnetic resonance imaging of the vagina: an overview for radiologists with emphasis on clinical decision making

AbstractMagnetic resonance imaging is a method with high contrast resolution widely used in the assessment of pelvic gynecological diseases. However, the potential of such method to diagnose vaginal lesions is still underestimated, probably due to the scarce literature approaching the theme, the poor familiarity of radiologists with vaginal diseases, some of them relatively rare, and to the many peculiarities involved in the assessment of the vagina. Thus, the authors illustrate the role of magnetic resonance imaging in the evaluation of vaginal diseases and the main relevant findings to be considered in the clinical decision making process.

To analyse a trace or not? Evaluating the decision-making process in the criminal investigation

In order to broaden our knowledge and understanding of the decision steps in the criminal investigation process, we started by evaluating the decision to analyse a trace and the factors involved in this decision step. This decision step is embedded in the complete criminal investigation process, involving multiple decision and triaging steps. Considering robbery cases occurring in a geographic region during a 2-year-period, we have studied the factors influencing the decision to submit biological traces, directly sampled on the scene of the robbery or on collected objects, for analysis. The factors were categorised into five knowledge dimensions: strategic, immediate, physical, criminal and utility and decision tree analysis was carried out. Factors in each category played a role in the decision to analyse a biological trace. Interestingly, factors involving information available prior to the analysis are of importance, such as the fact that a positive result (a profile suitable for comparison) is already available in the case, or that a suspect has been identified through traditional police work before analysis. One factor that was taken into account, but was not significant, is the matrix of the trace. Hence, the decision to analyse a trace is not influenced by this variable. The decision to analyse a trace first is very complex and many of the tested variables were taken into account. The decisions are often made on a case-by-case basis.

Towards automated specifications of scenarios in enhanced learning technology

Recent standardization efforts in e-learning technology have resulted in a number of specifications, however, the automation process that is considered essential in a learning management system (LMS) is a lessexplored one. As learning technology becomes more widespread and more heterogeneous, there is a growing need to specify processes that cross the boundaries of a single LMS or learning resource repository. This article proposes to obtain a specification orientated to automation that takes on board the heterogeneity of systems and formats and provides a language for specifying complex and generic interactions. Having this goal in mind, a technique based on three steps is suggested. The semantic conformance profiles, the business process management (BPM) diagram, and its translation into the business process execution language (BPEL) seem to be suitable for achieving it.

An ontology to automated learning scenarios? an approach to its knowledge domain

Automation or semi-automation of learning scenariospecifications is one of the least exploredsubjects in the e-learning research area. There isa need for a catalogue of learning scenarios and atechnique to facilitate automated retrieval of stored specifications. This requires constructing anontology with this goal and is justified inthis paper. This ontology must mainlysupport a specification technique for learning scenarios. This ontology should also be useful in the creation and validation of new scenarios as well as in the personalization of learning scenarios or their monitoring. Thus, after justifying the need for this ontology, a first approach of a possible knowledge domain is presented. An example of a concrete learning scenario illustrates some relevant concepts supported by this ontology in order to define the scenario in such a way that it could be easy to automate.

A catalogue of Primitive Scenario-Types : The First Step to the Automation of Learning Scenarios

Peer-reviewed

Metadata for describing learning scenarios under European Higher Education Area paradigm

In this paper we identify the requirements for creating formal descriptions of learning scenarios designed under the European HigherEducation Area paradigm, using competences and learning activities as the basic pieces of the learning process, instead of contents and learning resources, pursuing personalization. Classical arrangements of content based courses are no longer enough to describe all the richness of this new learning process, where user profiles, competences and complex hierarchical itineraries need to be properly combined. We study the intersection with the current IMS Learning Design specification and theadditional metadata required for describing such learning scenarios. This new approach involves the use of case based learning and collaborativelearning in order to acquire and develop competences, following adaptive learning paths in two structured levels.

Analyzing and supporting interaction in complex scenarios: the case of DS106

DS106 promotes learners to build a digital identity + personal infrastructure, but how can be the global course infrastructure be improved?

Present and future methodology for the implementation of decision support systems for traffic management

Real-time predictions are an indispensable requirement for traffic management in order to be able to evaluate the effects of different available strategies or policies. The combination of predicting the state of the network and the evaluation of different traffic management strategies in the short term future allows system managers to anticipate the effects of traffic control strategies ahead of time in order to mitigate the effect of congestion. This paper presents the current framework of decision support systems for traffic management based on short and medium-term predictions and includes some reflections on their likely evolution, based on current scientific research and the evolution of the availability of new types of data and their associated methodologies.

Externalities of Shipping in the Gulf of Finland until 2015

During the last few years, the discussion on the marginal social costs of transportation has been active. Applying the externalities as a tool to control transport would fulfil the polluter pays principle and simultaneously create a fair control method between the transport modes. This report presents the results of two calculation algorithms developed to estimate the marginal social costs based on the externalities of air pollution. The first algorithm calculates the future scenarios of sea transport traffic externalities until 2015 in the Gulf of Finland. The second algorithm calculates the externalities of Russian passenger car transit traffic via Finland by taking into account both sea and road transport. The algorithm estimates the ship-originated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur oxides (SO_x), particulates (PM) and the externalities for each year from 2007 to 2015. The total NOx emissions in the Gulf of Finland from the six ship types were almost 75.7 kilotons (Table 5.2) in 2007. The ship types are: passenger (including cruisers and ROPAX vessels), tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessels. Due to the increase of traffic, the estimation for NO_x emissions for 2015 is 112 kilotons. The NO_x emission estimation for the whole Baltic Sea shipping is 370 kilotons in 2006 (Stipa & al, 2007). The total marginal social costs due to ship-originated CO₂, NO_x, SO_x and PM emissions in the GOF were calculated to almost 175 million Euros in 2007. The costs will increase to nearly 214 million Euros in 2015 due to the traffic growth. The major part of the externalities is due to CO₂ emissions. If we neglect the CO2 emissions by extracting the CO₂ externalities from the results, we get the total externalities of 57 million Euros in 2007. After eight years (2015), the externalities would be 28 % lower, 41 million Euros (Table 8.1). This is the result of the sulphur emissions reducing regulation of marine fuels. The majority of the new car transit goes through Finland to Russia due to the lack of port capacity in Russia. The amount of cars was 339 620 vehicles (Statistics of Finnish Customs 2008) in 2005. The externalities are calculated for the transportation of passenger vehicles as follows: by ship to a Finnish port and, after that, by trucks to the Russian border checkpoint. The externalities are between 2 – 3 million Euros (year 2000 cost level) for each route. The ports included in the calculations are Hamina, Hanko, Kotka and Turku. With the Euro-3 standard trucks, the port of Hanko would be the best choice to transport the vehicles. This is because of lower emissions by new trucks and the saved transport distance of a ship. If the trucks are more polluting Euro 1 level trucks, the port of Kotka would be the best choice. This indicates that the truck emissions have a considerable effect on the externalities and that the transportation of light cargo, such as passenger cars by ship, produces considerably high emission externalities. The emission externalities approach offers a new insight for valuing the multiple traffic modes. However, the calculation of the marginal social costs based on the air emission externalities should not be regarded as a ready-made calculation system. The system is clearly in the need of some improvement but it can already be considered as a potential tool for political decision making.

Offering planning process development: Bridging the Offering Gaps and Consolidating Top Priority Needs in Product Offering

The aim of this Thesis is to study how to manage the front-end of the offering planning process. This includes actual process development and methods to gather and analyze information to achieve the best outcome in customer oriented product offering. Study is carried out in two parts: theoretical part and company related part. Theoretical framework is created introducing different types of approaches to manage product planning processes. Products are seen as platforms and they are broken down to subsystems to show different parts of the development. With the help of the matrix-based approaches product platform related information is gathered and analyzed. In this kind of analysis business/market drivers and cus-tomer/competitor information are connected with product subsystems. This gives possibilities to study product gaps/needs and possible future ideas/scenarios in different customer segments. Company related part consists of offering planning process development in real company environment. Process formation includes documents and tools that guide planning from the information gathering to the prioritization and decision making.

Expertise and decision making among clinicians in investigations of alleged child sexual abuse

The purpose of the present thesis was to explore different aspects of decision making and expertise in investigations of child sexual abuse (CSA) and subsequently shed some light on the reasons for shortcomings in the investigation processes. Clinicians’ subjective attitudes as well as scientifically based knowledge concerning CSA, CSA investigation and interviewing were explored. Furthermore the clinicians’ own view on their expertise and what enhances this expertise was investigated. Also, the effects of scientific knowledge, experience and attitudes on the decision making in a case of CSA were explored. Finally, the effects of different kinds of feedback as well as experience on the ability to evaluate CSA in the light of children’s behavior and base rates were investigated. Both explorative and experimental methods were used. The purpose of Study I was to investigate whether clinicians investigating child sexual abuse (CSA) rely more on scientific knowledge or on clinical experience when evaluating their own expertise. Another goal was to check what kind of beliefs the clinicians held. The connections between these different factors were investigated. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, experience, knowledge about CSA, selfevaluated expertise and beliefs about CSA was given to social workers, child psychiatrists and psychologists working with children. The results showed that the clinicians relied more on their clinical experience than on scientific knowledge when evaluating their expertise as investigators of CSA. Furthermore, social workers possessed stronger attitudes in favor of children than the other groups, while child psychiatrists had more negative attitudes towards the criminal justice system. Male participants held less strong beliefs than female participants. The findings indicate that the education of CSA investigators should focus more on theoretical knowledge and decision making processes as well as the role of beliefs In Study II school and family counseling psychologists completed a Child Sexual Abuse Attitude and Belief Scale. Four CSA related attitude and belief subscales were identified: 1. The Disclosure subscale reflecting favoring a disclosure at any cost, 2. The Pro-Child subscale reflecting unconditional belief in children's reports, 3. The Intuition subscale reflecting favoring an intuitive approach to CSA investigations, and 4. The Anti Criminal Justice System subscale reflecting negative attitudes towards the legal system. Beliefs that were erroneous according to empirical research were analyzed separately. The results suggest that some psychologists hold extreme attitudes and many erroneous beliefs related to CSA. Some misconceptions are common. Female participants tended to hold stronger attitudes than male participants. The more training in interviewing children the participants have, the more erroneous beliefs and stronger attitudes they hold. Experience did not affect attitudes and beliefs. In Study III mental health professionals’ sensitivity to suggestive interviewing in CSA cases was explored. Furthermore, the effects of attitudes and beliefs related to CSA and experience with CSA investigations on the sensitivity to suggestive influences in the interview were investigated. Also, the effect of base rate estimates of CSA on decisions was examined. A questionnaire covering items concerning demographic data, different aspects of clinical experience, self-evaluated expertise, beliefs and knowledge about CSA and a set of ambiguous material based on real trial documents concerning an alleged CSA case was given to child mental health professionals. The experiment was based on a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (leading questions: yes vs no) x (stereotype induction: yes vs no) x (emotional tone: pressure to respond vs no pressure to respond) x (threats and rewards: yes vs no) between-subjects factorial design, in which the suggestiveness of the methods with which the responses of the child were obtained were varied. There was an additional condition in which the material did not contain any interview transcripts. The results showed that clinicians are sensitive only to the presence of leading questions but not to the presence of other suggestive techniques. Furthermore, the clinicians were not sensitive to the possibility that suggestive techniques could have been used when no interview transcripts had been included in the trial material. Experience had an effect on the sensitivity of the clinicians only regarding leading questions. Strong beliefs related to CSA lessened the sensitivity to leading questions. Those showing strong beliefs on the belief scales used in this study were even more prone to prosecute than other participants when other suggestive influences than leading questions were present. Controversy exists regarding effects of experience and feedback on clinical decision making. In Study IV the impact of the number of handled cases and of feedback on the decisions in cases of alleged CSA was investigated. One-hundred vignettes describing cases of suspected CSA were given to students with no experience with investigating CSA. The vignettes were based on statistical data about symptoms and prevalence of CSA. According to the theoretical likelihood of CSA the children described were categorized as abused or not abused. The participants were asked to decide whether abuse had occurred. They were divided into 4 groups: one received feedback on whether their decision was right or wrong, one received information about cognitive processes involved in decision making, one received both, and one did not receive feedback at all. The results showed that participants who received feedback on their performance made more correct positive decisions and participants who got information about decision making processes made more correct negative decisions. Feedback and information combined decreased the number of correct positive decisions but increased the number of correct negative decisions. The number of read cases had in itself a positive effect on correct positive decision.