Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga-Bhadra river basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the TungaBhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC-HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear-regression-based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub-basins of the study area. The large-scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 20112040, 20412070, and 20712099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub-basins in the study area.

Impacts of climate change on regional water resources

Water is the most important medium through which climate change influences human life. Rising temperatures together with regional changes in precipitation patterns are some of the impacts of climate change that have implications on water availability, frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, soil moisture, water quality, water supply and water demands for irrigation and hydropower generation. In this article we provide an introduction to the emerging field of hydrologic impacts of climate change with a focus on water availability, water quality and irrigation demands. Climate change estimates on regional or local spatial scales are burdened with a considerable amount of uncertainty, stemming from various sources such as climate models, downscaling and hydrological models used in the impact assessments and uncertainty in the downscaling relationships. The present article summarizes the recent advances on uncertainty modeling and regional impacts of climate change for the Mahanadi and Tunga-Bhadra Rivers in India.

Modeling the vulnerability of an urban groundwater system due to the combined impacts of climate change and management scenarios

Climate change impact on a groundwater-dependent small urban town has been investigated in the semiarid hard rock aquifer in southern India. A distributed groundwater model was used to simulate the groundwater levels in the study region for the projected future rainfall (2012-32) obtained from a general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater system. Management practices were based on the human-induced changes on the urban infrastructure such as reduced recharge from the lakes, reduced recharge from water and wastewater utility due to an operational and functioning underground drainage system, and additional water extracted by the water utility for domestic purposes. An assessment of impacts on the groundwater levels was carried out by calibrating a groundwater model using comprehensive data gathered during the period 2008-11 and then simulating the future groundwater level changes using rainfall from six GCMs Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model, version 3.0 (INM-CM. 3.0); L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 3.2 (MIROC3.2); ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G); Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3); and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1 (HadGEM1)] that were found to show good correlation to the historical rainfall in the study area. The model results for the present condition indicate that the annual average discharge (sum of pumping and natural groundwater outflow) was marginally or moderately higher at various locations than the recharge and further the recharge is aided from the recharge from the lakes. Model simulations showed that groundwater levels were vulnerable to the GCM rainfall and a scenario of moderate reduction in recharge from lakes. Hence, it is important to sustain the induced recharge from lakes by ensuring that sufficient runoff water flows to these lakes.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even-more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of Water Dynamics to Biologically Significant Surfaces of Monomeric Insulin: Role of Topology and Electrostatic Interactions

In addition to the biologically active monomer of the protein insulin circulating in human blood, the molecule also exists in dimeric and hexameric forms that are used as storage. The insulin monomer contains two distinct surfaces, namely, the dimer forming surface (DFS) and the hexamer forming surface (HFS), that are specifically designed to facilitate the formation of the dimer and the hexamer, respectively. In order to characterize the structural and dynamical behavior of interfacial water molecules near these two surfaces (DFS and HFS), we performed atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of insulin with explicit water. Dynamical characterization reveals that the structural relaxation of the hydrogen bonds formed between the residues of DFS and the interfacial water molecules is faster than those formed between water and that of the HFS. Furthermore, the residence times of water molecules in the protein hydration layer for both the DFS and HFS are found to be significantly higher than those for some of the other proteins studied so far, such as HP-36 and lysozyme. In particular, we find that more structured water molecules, with higher residence times (similar to 300-500 ps), are present near HFS than those near DFS. A significant slowing down is observed in the decay of associated rotational auto time correlation functions of O-H bond vector of water in the vicinity of HFS. The surface topography and the arrangement of amino acid residues work together to organize the water molecules in the hydration layer in order to provide them with a preferred orientation. HFS having a large polar solvent accessible surface area and a convex extensive nonpolar region, drives the surrounding water molecules to acquire predominantly an outward H-atoms directed, clathrate-like structure. In contrast, near the DFS, the surrounding water molecules acquire an inward H-atoms directed orientation owing to the flat curvature of hydrophobic surface and the interrupted hydrophilic residual alignment. We have followed escape trajectory of several such quasi-bound water molecules from both the surfaces that reveal the significant differences between the two hydration layers.

Homeostasis of functional maps in active dendrites emerges in the absence of individual channelostasis

The maintenance of ion channel homeostasis, or channelostasis, is a complex puzzle in neurons with extensive dendritic arborization, encompassing a combinatorial diversity of proteins that encode these channels and their auxiliary subunits, their localization profiles, and associated signaling machinery. Despite this, neurons exhibit amazingly stereotypic, topographically continuous maps of several functional properties along their active dendritic arbor. Here, we asked whether the membrane composition of neurons, at the level of individual ion channels, is constrained by this structural requirement of sustaining several functional maps along the same topograph. We performed global sensitivity analysis on morphologically realistic conductance-based models of hippocampal pyramidal neurons that coexpressed six well-characterized functional maps along their trunk. We generated randomized models by varying 32 underlying parameters and constrained these models with quantitative experimental measurements from the soma and dendrites of hippocampal pyramidal neurons. Analyzing valid models that satisfied experimental constraints on all six functional maps, we found topographically analogous functional maps to emerge from disparate model parameters with weak pairwise correlations between parameters. Finally, we derived a methodology to assess the contribution of individual channel conductances to the various functional measurements, using virtual knockout simulations on the valid model population. We found that the virtual knockout of individual channels resulted in variable, measurement and location-specific impacts across the population. Our results suggest collective channelostasis as a mechanism behind the robust emergence of analogous functional maps and have significant ramifications for the localization and targeting of ion channels and enzymes that regulate neural coding and homeostasis.

Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon

The impact of heating by black carbon aerosols on Indian summer monsoon has remained inconclusive. Some investigators have predicted that black carbon aerosols reduce monsoon rainfall while others have argued that it will increase monsoon rainfall. These conclusions have been based on local influence of aerosols on the radiative fluxes. The impact of aerosol-like heating in one region on the rainfall in a remote region has not been examined in detail. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, it has been shown that remote influence of aerosol-like heating can be as important as local influence on Indian summer monsoon. Precipitation in northern Arabian Sea and north-west Indian region increased by 16% in June to July when aerosol-like heating were present globally. The corresponding increase in precipitation due to presence of aerosol-like heating only over South Asia (local impact) and East Asia (remote impact) were 28 and 13%, respectively. This enhancement in precipitation was due to destabilization of the atmosphere in pre-monsoon season that affected subsequent convection. Moreover, pre-monsoon heating of the lower troposphere changed the circulation substantially that enabled influx of more moisture over certain regions and reduced the moist static stability of the atmosphere. It has been shown that regional aerosol heating can have large impact on the phase of upper tropospheric Rossby wave in pre-monsoon season, which acts as a primary mechanism behind teleconnection and leads to the change in precipitation during monsoon season. These results demonstrate that changes in aerosol in one region can influence the precipitation in a remote region through changes in circulation.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

Impacts of modern transitions on thermal comfort in vernacular dwellings in warm-humid climate of Sugganahalli (India)

Sugganahalli, a rural vernacular community in a warm-humid region in South India, is under transition towards adopting modern construction practices. Vernacular local building elements like rubble walls and mud roofs are given way to burnt brick walls and reinforced cement concrete (RCC)/tin roofs. Over 60% of Indian population is rural, and implications of such transitions on thermal comfort and energy in buildings are crucial to understand. Vernacular architecture evolves adopting local resources in response to the local climate adopting passive solar designs. This paper investigates the effectiveness of passive solar elements on the indoor thermal comfort by adopting modern climate-responsive design strategies. Dynamic simulation models validated by measured data have also been adopted to determine the impact of the transition from vernacular to modern material-configurations. Age-old traditional design considerations were found to concur with modern understanding into bio-climatic response and climate-responsiveness. Modern transitions were found to increase the average indoor temperatures in excess of 7 degrees C. Such transformations tend to shift the indoor conditions to a psychrometric zone that is likely to require active air-conditioning. Also, the surveyed thermal sensation votes were found to lie outside the extended thermal comfort boundary for hot developing countries provided by Givoni in the bio-climatic chart.

Explosives Sensing by Using Electron-Rich Supramolecular Polymers: Role of Intermolecular Hydrogen Bonding in Significant Enhancement of Sensitivity

We demonstrate here that supramolecular interactions enhance the sensitivity towards detection of electron-deficient nitro-aromatic compounds (NACs) over discrete analogues. NACs are the most commonly used explosive ingredients and are common constituents of many unexploded landmines used during World WarII. In this study, we have synthesised a series of pyrene-based polycarboxylic acids along with their corresponding discrete esters. Due to the electron richness and the fluorescent behaviour of the pyrene moiety, all the compounds act as sensors for electron-deficient NACs through a fluorescence quenching mechanism. A Stern-Volmer quenching constant determination revealed that the carboxylic acids are more sensitive than the corresponding esters towards NACs in solution. The high sensitivity of the acids was attributed to supramolecular polymer formation through hydrogen bonding in the case of the acids, and the enhancement mechanism is based on an exciton energy migration upon excitation along the hydrogen-bond backbone. The presence of intermolecular hydrogen bonding in the acids in solution was established by solvent-dependent fluorescence studies and dynamic light scattering (DLS) experiments. In addition, the importance of intermolecular hydrogen bonds in solid-state sensing was further explored by scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) experiments at the liquid-solid interface, in which structures of self-assembled monolayer of the acids and the corresponding esters were compared. The sensitivity tests revealed that these supramolecular sensors can even detect picric acid and trinitrotoluene in solution at levels as low as parts per trillion (ppt), which is much below the recommended permissible level of these constituents in drinking water.

Off-site impacts of agricultural composting: role of terrestrially derived organic matter in structuring aquatic microbial communities and their metabolic potential

While considered as sustainable and low-cost agricultural amendments, the impacts of organic fertilizers on downstream aquatic microbial communities remain poorly documented. We investigated the quantity and quality of the dissolved organic matter leaching from agricultural soil amended with compost, vermicompost or biochar and assessed their effects on lake microbial communities, in terms of viral and bacterial abundances, community structure and metabolic potential. The addition of compost and vermicompost significantly increased the amount of dissolved organic carbon in the leachate compared with soil alone. Leachates from these additions, either with or without biochar, were highly bioavailable to aquatic microbial communities, although reducing the metabolic potential of the community and harbouring more specific communities. Although not affecting bacterial richness or taxonomic distributions, the specific addition of biochar affected the original lake bacterial communities, resulting in a strongly different community. This could be partly explained by viral burst and converging bacterial abundances throughout the samples. These results underline the necessity to include off-site impacts of agricultural amendments when considering their cascading effect on downstream aquatic ecosystems.

Efficacious Gene Silencing in Serum and Significant Apoptotic Activity Induction by Survivin Downregulation Mediated by New Cationic Gemini Tocopheryl Lipids

Nonviral gene delivery offers cationic liposomes as promising instruments for the delivery of double-stranded RNA (ds RNA) molecules for successful sequence-specific gene silencing (RNA interference). The efficient delivery of siRNA (small interfering RNA) to cells while avoiding unexpected side effects is an important prerequisite for the exploitation of the power of this excellent tool. We present here six new tocopherol based cationic gemini lipids, which induce substantial gene knockdown without any obvious cytotoxicity. All the efficient coliposomal formulations derived from each of these geminis and a helper lipid, dioleoylphosphatidylethanolamine (DOPE), were well characterized using physical methods such as atomic force microscopy (AFM) and dynamic light scattering (DLS). Zeta potential measurements were conducted to estimate the surface charge of these formulations. Flow cytometric analysis showed that the optimized coliposomal formulations could transfect anti-GFP siRNA efficiently in three different GFP expressing cell lines, viz., HEK 293T, HeLa, and Caco-2, significantly better than a potent commercial standard Lipofectamine 2000 (L2K) both in the absence and in the presence of serum (FBS). Notably, the knockdown activity of coliposomes of gemini lipids was not affected even in the presence of serum (10% and 50% FBS) while it dropped down for L2K significantly. Observations under a fluorescence microscope, RT-PCR, and Western blot analysis substantiated the flow cytometry results. The efficient cellular entry of labeled siRNA in GFP expressing cells as evidenced from confocal microscopy put forward these gemini lipids among the potent lipidic carriers for siRNA. The efficient transfection capabilities were also profiled in a more relevant fashion while performing siRNA transfections against survivin (an anti-apoptotic protein) which induced substantial apoptosis. Furthermore, the survivin downregulation improved the therapeutic efficacy levels of an anticancer drug, doxorubicin, significantly. In short, the new tocopherol based gemini lipids appear to be highly promising for achieving siRNA mediated gene knockdown in various cell lines.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Long-term effects of Macroternies termites, herbivores and annual early fire on woody undergrowth community in Sudanian woodland, Burkina Faso

Termites, herbivores and fire are recognized as major guilds that structure woody plant communities in African savanna and woodland ecosystems. An understanding of their interaction is crucial to design appropriate management regimes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term impacts of herbivore, fire and termite activities on regeneration of trees. Permanent experimental quadrats were established in 1992 in the Sudanian woodland of Burkina Faso subjected to grazing by livestock and annual early fire and the control. Within the treatment quadrats, an inventory of the woody undergrowth community was conducted on termitaria occupied by Macrotermes subhyalinus, extended termitosphere (within 5 m radius from the mound base) and adjacent area (beyond 5 m from the mound base). Hierarchical analysis was performed to determine significant differences in species richness, abundance and diversity indices among vegetation patches within fire and herbivory treatments. Grazed quadrats had significantly (P < 0.001) more species and stem density of woody undergrowth than non-grazed quadrats but maintained similar level of species richness and stem density of woody undergrowth on termitaria. There were not significant differences (P>0.05) in species richness and stem density between burnt and unburnt quadrats. Termitaria supported a highly diverse woody undergrowth with higher stem density than either the extended termitosphere or rest of quadrats. The density of woody undergrowth was significantly related with mature trees of selected species on termitaria (R-2 = 0.593; P<0.001) than that on the extended termitosphere (R-2 = 0.333; P<0.001) and adjacent area (R-2 = 0.197; P<0.001). It can be concluded that termites facilitate the regeneration of woody species while grazing and annual early fire play a minor role in the regeneration of woody species. The current policy that prohibits grazing should be revised to accommodate the interests of livestock herders. (C) 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.