Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.

Modernizando a administra????o p??blica na Am??rica Latina: problemas comuns sem solu????es f??ceis

A inten????o dos autores ?? fornecer subs??dios para o debate sobre a reforma da administra????o p??blica na Am??rica Latina. O artigo come??a pela caracteriza????o dos desafios colocados para a burocracia pelos problemas do monop??lio e do controle pol??tico. Em seguida, s??o analisados os modelos de administra????o p??blica adotados pelos pa??ses desenvolvidos, dado que estes constituem os principais pontos de refer??ncia para as iniciativas de reforma nos pa??ses em desenvolvimento. E, finalmente, os autores identificam as causas e os efeitos das disfun????es da administra????o p??blica na Am??rica Latina, sugerindo que as experi??ncias e o debate acad??mico relativos aos pa??ses desenvolvidos podem fornecer li????es aos pa??ses em desenvolvimento desde que n??o se perca de vista as especificidades do contexto latino-americano. Os autores sustentam que nestes pa??ses as iniciativas de reforma administrativa s??o dificultadas pelo baixo n??vel de desenvolvimento pol??tico e pela vig??ncia de padr??es informais de comportamento no ??mbito da burocracia p??blica.

Transformando organiza????es p??blicas: a tecnologia da informa????o como fator propulsor de mudan??as

A redefini????o do papel do Estado na sociedade e a conseq??ente transforma????o das Organiza????es P??blicas (OPs) implementadoras deste novo papel t??m sido t??picos-alvo constantes de discuss??o e a????o de governos, tanto em pa??ses desenvolvidos, quanto nos em desenvolvimento. Neste artigo ?? apresentada uma proposta metodol??gica para a transforma????o de OPs, utilizando-se de tecnologia da informa????o (TI) como fator propulsor deste processo de transforma????o. O arcabou??o metodol??gico proposto est??, basicamente, ancorado em duas for??as de mudan??a: uma for??a externa ?? OP ??? Institutional Accountability, e uma for??a interna ?? OP ??? Equipes de Trabalho, que, sinergicamente, encontram-se nos processos de trabalho executados pela OP transformada. As TIs que viabilizam e prov??em suporte ?? implementa????o das for??as externa e interna s??o, respectivamente: Sistema de Informa????o Executivo e Groupware.

O prêmio INOVES : a sociologia de um sucesso

A litania conhecida relata muito mais sobre maus governos, principalmente, em países em desenvolvimento, do que sobre suas práticas inovadoras. Nas agências brasileiras nos últimos anos assiste-se a presença constante e reiterada da ideia de uma reforma administrativa. A observação mais simples tem mostrado baixos níveis de eficiência, efetividade e transparência nas instituições públicas. O presente estudo visa expor, na contramão do senso comum, um exemplo de bom governo – o Prêmio INOVES. Dessa maneira levantam-se os conceitos de eficiência e efetividade no setor público. Bem como, a exposição de um cenário do estado do Espírito Santo que se mostra aberto as perspectivas de mudança. Por intermédio da sociologia das organizações, busca-se aspectos da realidade das experiências apresentadas pelo prêmio INOVES, para explicar, a partir de conceitos particulares da teoria das relações humanas e na digressão dos modelos da ação concreta de Crozier e Friedberg (1977) a análise da ação/situação das condutas dos atores envolvidos em projetos vencedores. A metodologia utilizada no desenho dessa pesquisa é aquela ligada a Ground Theory de Strauss (1967), o qual enfatiza que a construção do conhecimento sobre determinados objetos deve ser minimamente pensada como articulação de conceitos básicos que iriam nortear o vai e vem entre a observação – seja etnográfica ou de entrevista em profundidade – e a confirmação e reconstrução em um plano mais complexo da teoria a ser aplicada. A conclusão mais imediata aos estudos realizados perpassa as teorias de alcance médio que permitem um contato com o objeto de estudo, cuja proximidade permite um processo de descoberta da relevância dos pontos centrais a observação, bem como um outro pilar teórico das investigações, sobre os atores envolvidos na cooperação interna dos projetos.

Brazilian external sector so far in the 21st century

Although Brazil has traditionally been characterized by a culture of inward-looking policy making, the presence of foreign firms in the Brazilian productive sector has always been significant. The share of foreign-owned firms is one of the highest that can be found among developing countries. This article discusses the main features of the external sector of the Brazilian economy, regarding trade flows, foreign investment, the internationalization of Brazilian entrepreneurial groups and the short-term financial requirements in foreign currencies

Brazilian foreign policy under President Lula (2003-2010): an overview

Foreign Minister of Brazil since 2003, Ambassador Celso Amorim outlines the main guidelines and accomplishments of Brazil's foreign policy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The article provides a full-fledged, although not exhaustive, narrative of a number of diplomatic initiatives championed by Brazil over the last eight years: from the gathering of the group of developing countries in a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting in Cancun to the negotiations that led to the Declaration of Tehran, as well as the challenges the country has been facing as its international weight grows.

The G-77, BASIC, and global climate governance: a new era in multilateral environmental negotiations

The G-77 has historically organized the participation of developing countries in multilateral environmental negotiations. This article analyses the impact of a new coalition of emerging powers - Brazil, China, India, and South Africa as BASIC - on the G-77's role in climate governance. While there are important benefits for both sides in their relationship, I argue that the G-77 is also disadvantaged in several concrete ways by the BASIC countries.

The international implications of the Chinese model of development in the Global South: Asian Consensus as a network power

This paper analyzes People's Republic of China (PRC) economic and political ascendance in the 21st century focusing on the evolution of the sui generis economic development model and its significances of the evolution of relationship between China and the developing countries in the peripheral "Global South." The objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between China and the Global South (Africa and South America) in the 21st century, characterized as a new Center-periphery global network power based on trade and investment that we call as "Asian Consensus."

South-South relations and the English School of International Relations: Chinese and Brazilian ideas and involvement in Sub-Saharan Africa

The rise of large developing countries has led to considerable discussions of re-balancing global relations and giving greater priority to understanding South-South relations. This paper, in exploring the central ideas of Chinese and Brazilian foreign policy and the behavior of these two rising Southern countries toward Sub-Saharan Africa, argues that the English School of International Relations is well suited to understanding the intentions and actions that characterize South-South relations.

Ambivalent implications of health care information systems: a study in the Brazilian public health care system

This article evaluates social implications of the "SIGA" Health Care Information System (HIS) in a public health care organization in the city of São Paulo. The evaluation was performed by means of an in-depth case study with patients and staff of a public health care organization, using qualitative and quantitative data. On the one hand, the system had consequences perceived as positive such as improved convenience and democratization of specialized treatment for patients and improvements in work organization. On the other hand, negative outcomes were reported, like difficulties faced by employees due to little familiarity with IT and an increase in the time needed to schedule appointments. Results show the ambiguity of the implications of HIS in developing countries, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced view of the evaluation of failures and successes and the importance of social contextual factors.

THE INTERNATIONAL GROWTH OF A SOCIAL BUSINESS: A CASE STUDY

ABSTRACTIn developing countries, initiatives have often been undertaken in order to fight social and environmental problems. Since the 1990s, an increase can be seen in corporate social responsibility actions, as well as increasingly strong activities by civil society organizations. Tweenty years ago, companies and civil society organizations stood wide apart from each other, with often conflicting agendas and resistance to mutual collaboration. This reality has changed significantly. Besides the phenomenon of cross-sector partnerships, we can also observe the expansion of a particular organization type, i.e., the social business, which combines two objectives that were previously seen as incompatible: financial sustainability and the generation of social value. This article aims to discuss the factors that influence the results of a social business operating in three countries: Botswana, Brazil and Jordan. The results allow understanding the challenges involved in constructing social businesses in developing countries as well as a better understanding of the very nature of those businesses, considering the social realities where they operate.

A Economia dos Conflitos Violentos em África

Os conflitos armados que, ao longo de décadas, constituem fenómenos integrantes do quotidiano de vários países africanos em desenvolvimento, são potenciados e perpetuados pelas situações de pobreza e de declínio económico que os caracteriza. O nexo de causalidade circular entre as guerras civis e o subdesenvolvimento traduz um ciclo vicioso que mantém os países mais pobres reféns da “armadilha do conflito” que os condiciona e dificulta a implementação de medidasde promoção do desenvolvimento. Este ciclo vicioso constitui uma “inversão do desenvolvimento” e evidencia como legado de uma guerra civil a grande probabilidade de ocorrência de uma outra guerra civil. Não obstante a relação de causa-efeito frequentemente estabelecida entre o fraccionamento étnico-linguístico e a ocorrência de conflitos violentos, são os factores de ordem económica (nomeadamente a sobre-dependência relativamente à exportação de recursos naturais de grande valor) os principais elementos indutores da conflitualidade armada em África. Ademais, a propagação transfronteiriça destes conflitos intra-estatais, através dos fenómenos de “spill over” e “spill into”, é maximizada por um conjunto de redes (militares, económicas, políticas e sociais) que se tendem a estabelecer entre estados contíguos. Deste modo, independentemente dos factores, agentes e acções potencialmente na origem dos conflitos, as suas consequências serão internacionalizadas colocando em causa a estabilidade regional.

Network dynamics in scientific knowledge acquisition: an analysis in three public universities in the state of Bahia

This paper aims to cast some light on the dynamics of knowledge networks in developing countries by analyzing the scientific production of the largest university in the Northeast of Brazil and its influence on some of the remaining regional research institutions in the state of Bahia. Using a methodology test to be employed in a larger project, the Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA) (Federal University of Bahia), the Universidade do Estado da Bahia (Uneb) (State of Bahia University) and the Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (Uesc)'s (Santa Cruz State University) scientific productions are discussed in one of their most traditionally expressive sectors in academic production - namely, the field of chemistry, using social network analysis of co-authorship networks to investigate the existence of small world phenomena and the importance of these phenomena in research performance in these three universities. The results already obtained through this research bring to light data of considerable interest concerning the scientific production in unconsolidated research universities. It shows the important participation of the UFBA network in the composition of the other two public universities research networks, indicating a possible occurrence of small world phenomena in the UFBA and Uesc networks, as well as the importance of individual researchers in consolidating research networks in peripheral universities. The article also hints that the methodology employed appears to be adequate insofar as scientific production may be used as a proxy for scientific knowledge.

O planejamento econômico no Brasil: considerações críticas

In the past thirty years, a series of plans have been developed by successive Brazilian governments in a continuing effort to maximize the nation's resources for economic and social growth. This planning history has been quantitatively rich but qualitatively poor. The disjunction has stimulated Professor Mello e Souza to address himself to the problem of national planning and to offer some criticisms of Brazilian planning experience. Though political instability has obviously been a factor promoting discontinuity, his criticisms are aimed at the attitudes and strategic concepts which have sought to link planning to national goals and administration. He criticizes the fascination with techniques and plans to the exclusion of proper diagnosis of the socio-political reality, developing instruments to coordinate and carry out objectives, and creating an administrative structure centralized enough to make national decisions and decentralized enough to perform on the basis of those decisions. Thus, fixed, quantified objectives abound while the problem of functioning mechanisms for the coordinated, rational use of resources has been left unattended. Although his interest and criticism are focused on the process and experience of national planning, he recognized variation in the level and results of Brazilian planning. National plans have failed due to faulty conception of the function of planning. Sectorial plans, save in the sector of the petroleum industry under government responsibility, ha e not succeeded in overcoming the problems of formulation and execution thereby repeating old technical errors. Planning for the private sector has a somewhat brighter history due to the use of Grupos Executivos which has enabled the planning process to transcend the formalism and tradition-bound attitudes of the regular bureaucracy. Regional planning offers two relatively successful experiences, Sudene and the strategy of the regionally oriented autarchy. Thus, planning history in Brazil is not entirely black but a certain shade of grey. The major part of the article, however, is devoted to a descriptive analysis of the national planning experience. The plans included in this analysis are: The Works and Equipment Plan (POE); The Health, Food, Transportation and Energy Plan (Salte); The Program of Goals; The Trienal Plan of Economic and Social Development; and the Plan of Governmental Economic Action (Paeg). Using these five plans for his historical experience the author sets out a series of errors of formulation and execution by which he analyzes that experience. With respect to formulation, he speaks of a lack of elaboration of programs and projects, of coordination among diverse goals, and of provision of qualified staff and techniques. He mentions the absence of the definition of resources necessary to the financing of the plan and the inadequate quantification of sectorial and national goals due to the lack of reliable statistical information. Finally, he notes the failure to coordinate the annual budget with the multi-year plans. He sees the problems of execution as beginning in the absence of coordination between the various sectors of the public administration, the failure to develop an operative system of decentralization, the absence of any system of financial and fiscal control over execution, the difficulties imposed by the system of public accounting, and the absence of an adequate program of allocation for the liberation of resources. He ends by pointing to the failure to develop and use an integrated system of political economic tools in a mode compatible with the objective of the plans. The body of the article analyzes national planning experience in Brazil using these lists of errors as rough model of criticism. Several conclusions emerge from this analysis with regard to planning in Brazil and in developing countries, in general. Plans have generally been of little avail in Brazil because of the lack of a continuous, bureaucratized (in the Weberian sense) planning organization set in an instrumentally suitable administrative structure and based on thorough diagnoses of socio-economic conditions and problems. Plans have become the justification for planning. Planning has come to be conceived as a rational method of orienting the process of decisions through the establishment of a precise and quantified relation between means and ends. But this conception has led to a planning history rimmed with frustration, and failure, because of its rigidity in the face of flexible and changing reality. Rather, he suggests a conception of planning which understands it "as a rational process of formulating decisions about the policy, economy, and society whose only demand is that of managing the instrumentarium in a harmonious and integrated form in order to reach explicit, but not quantified ends". He calls this "planning without plans": the establishment of broad-scale tendencies through diagnosis whose implementation is carried out through an adjustable, coherent instrumentarium of political-economic tools. Administration according to a plan of multiple, integrated goals is a sound procedure if the nation's administrative machinery contains the technical development needed to control the multiple variables linked to any situation of socio-economic change. Brazil does not possess this level of refinement and any strategy of planning relevant to its problems must recognize this. The reforms which have been attempted fail to make this recognition as is true of the conception of planning informing the Brazilian experience. Therefore, unworkable plans, ill-diagnosed with little or no supportive instrumentarium or flexibility have been Brazil's legacy. This legacy seems likely to continue until the conception of planning comes to live in the reality of Brazil.