Drivers of the accuracy of developers' early stage cost estimates in residential construction

Purpose – Preliminary cost estimates for construction projects are often the basis of financial feasibility and budgeting decisions in the early stages of planning and for effective project control, monitoring and execution. The purpose of this paper is to identify and better understand the cost drivers and factors that contribute to the accuracy of estimates in residential construction projects from the developers’ perspective. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a literature review to determine the drivers that affect the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the factors influencing the construction costs of residential construction projects. It used cost variance data and other supporting documentation collected from two case study projects in South East Queensland, Australia, along with semi-structured interviews conducted with the practitioners involved. Findings – It is found that many cost drivers or factors of cost uncertainty identified in the literature for large-scale projects are not as apparent and relevant for developers’ small-scale residential construction projects. Specifically, the certainty and completeness of project-specific information, suitability of historical cost data, contingency allowances, methods of estimating and the estimator’s level of experience significantly affect the accuracy of cost estimates. Developers of small-scale residential projects use pre-established and suitably priced bills of quantities as the prime estimating method, which is considered to be the most efficient and accurate method for standard house designs. However, this method needs to be backed with the expertise and experience of the estimator. Originality/value – There is a lack of research on the accuracy of developers’ early stage cost estimates and the relevance and applicability of cost drivers and factors in the residential construction projects. This research has practical significance for improving the accuracy of such preliminary cost estimates.

Oral Actinomyces Species in Health and Disease: Identification, Occurence and Importance of Early Colonization

The genus Actinomyces consists of a heterogeneous group of gram-positive, mainly facultatively anaerobic or microaerobic rods showing various degrees of branching. In the oral cavity, streptococci and Actinomyces form a fundamental component of the indigenous microbiota, being among initial colonizers in polymicrobial biofilms. The significance of the genus Actinomyces is based on the capability of species to adhere to surfaces such as on teeth and to co-aggregate with other bacteria. Identification of Actinomyces species has mainly been based on only a few biochemical characteristics, such as pigmentation and catalase production, or on the use of a single commercial kit. The limited identification of oral Actinomyces isolates to species level has hampered knowledge of their role both in health and disease. In recent years, Actinomyces and related organisms have attracted the attention of clinical microbiologists because of a growing awareness of their presence in clinical specimens and their association with disease. This series of studies aimed to amplify the identification methods for Actinomyces species. With the newly developed identification scheme, the age-related occurrence of Actinomyces in healthy mouths of infants and their distribution in failed dental implants was investigated. Adhesion of Actinomyces species to titanium surfaces processed in various ways was studied in vitro. The results of phenotypic identification methods indicated a relatively low applicability of commercially available test kits for reliable identification within the genus Actinomyces. However, in the study of conventional phenotypic methods, it was possible to develop an identification scheme that resulted in accurate differentiation of Actinomyces and closely related species, using various different test methods. Genotypic methods based on 16S rRNA sequence analysis of Actinomyces proved to be a useful method for genus level identification and further clarified the species level identification with phenotypic methods. The results of the study of infants showed that the isolation frequency of salivary Actinomyces species increased according to age: thirty-one percent of the infants at 2 months but 97% at 2 years of age were positive for Actinomyces. A. odontolyticus was the most prominent Actinomyces colonizer during the study period followed in frequency by A. naeslundii and A. viscosus. In the study of explanted dental implants, Actinomyces was the most prevalent bacterial genus, colonizing 94% of the fixtures. Also in the implants A. odontolyticus was revealed as the most common Actinomyces species. It was present in 84% of Actinomyces -positive fixtures followed in frequency by A. naeslundii, A. viscosus and A. israelii. In an in vitro study of titanium surfaces, different Actinomyces species showed variation regarding their adhesion to titanium. Surface roughness as well as albumin coating of titanium had significant effects on adhesion. The use of improved phenotypic and molecular diagnostic methods increased the accuracy of the identification of the Actinomyces to species level. This facilitated an investigation of their occurrence and distribution in oral specimens in both health and disease.

Early Childhood Caries and a Community Trial of its Prevention in Tehran, Iran

Varhaislapsuuden karies ja sen ehkäisy kehittyvän terveydenhuollon maassa Varhaislapsuuden karies on merkittävä kansanterveysongelma varsinkin lapsirikkaissa maissa ja väestöissä. Karieksen hoitaminen vie paljon voimavaroja ja aiheuttaa mittavia taloudellisia seuraamuksia. Karies voi ilmaantua lapselle jo vauvaikäisenä, pian ensimmäisten maitohampaiden puhjettua suuhun. Alle 3-vuotiaiden karieksesta on kuitenkin niukasti tilastotietoja. Maailman terveysjärjestökin suosittaa tietojen keräämistä vasta 3-vuotiaiden ikäryhmästä. Heistä kariesta sairastaa Suomessa 16 %, Yhdysvalloissa 25 %, Englannissa 30 %, Iranissa 46 % ja Saudi-Arabiassa 61 %. Tämä väitöstutkimus selvitti karieksen esiintymistä ja sen vaaratekijöitä 1─3-vuotiailla Teheranissa. Lisäksi tutkimus arvioi perusterveydenhuoltoon sisällytetyn karieksen ehkäisyn tuloksellisuutta. Tutkimuskohteiksi arvottiin Teheranista 18 neuvolaa. Jokaisessa oltiin 4 päivää, jolloin kaikkia rokotuksiin tulleita 1─3-vuotiaita äiteineen pyydettiin osallistumaan tutkimukseen. Kahta lukuun ottamatta kaikki äidit suostuivat, ja aineistoon tuli kaikkiaan 504 lasta äiteineen. Kaikki 1-vuotiaat, 242 lasta äiteineen, valittiin karieksen ehkäisykokeiluun. Sitä varten neuvolat jaettiin kolmeen ryhmään, joista kaksi (A ja B) oli koeryhmiä ja yksi (C) oli vertailuryhmä. Tutkimus alkoi äidin haastattelulla. Siinä selvitettiin perheen koulutus- ja tulotaso sekä lapsen ruokinnasta imetyksen kesto, yösyötöt ja päiväaikaan nautitut makeat. Vielä kysyttiin lapsen ja äidin suuhygieniatavoista ja äidin kokemuksista lapsen suun puhdistamisessa. Sitten hammaslääkäri tutki lapsen suun ja kirjasi karieksen ja hammasplakin esiintymät. Suun tutkimuksen jälkeen äiti ja lapsi siirtyivät rokotushuoneeseen. Koeryhmissä (A ja B) äidit saivat terveydenhoitajalta suunterveyttä koskevan esitteen ja kehotuksen lukea se huolellisesti. Lisäksi ryhmässä A terveydenhoitaja kertoi suun ja hampaiden terveydenhoidosta saman esitteen avulla, ja neuvolan henkilökunta muistutti suunhoidon tärkeydestä puhelimitse kahdesti seuraavan puolen vuoden kuluessa. Vertailuryhmässä äideille ei annettu suunhoidon ohjeita. Kaikissa ryhmissä äitejä muistutettiin seuraavan rokotuskerran ajankohdasta, muttei mainittu tulevaa toista hammastarkastusta. Varhaislapsuuden kariesta sairasti ikäryhmästä riippuen 3─26 % tutkituista 1─3-vuotiaista, ja 65─76 %:lla oli hammasplakkia. Äideistä 68 % harjasi hampaansa päivittäin ja 39 % puhdisti lapsensa suun päivittäin. Mitä useammin äiti harjasi omat hampaansa, sitä paremmin hän huolehti lapsen suun puhtaudesta. Rintaruokinta oli yleistä eikä lisännyt kariesvaaraa. Yöllä pullomaitoa saavilla karies oli 5 kertaa yleisempää kuin muilla. Neuvolassa saatu ohjeistus ehkäisi selvästi karieksen syntyä puolen vuoden kokeessa.

Early-onset depressive disorders,related mental health disorders and substance use-A prospective : longitudinal study of Finnish twins born 1983-1987

Early-onset psychiatric illnesses effects scatter to academic achievements as well as functioning in familial and social environments. From a public health point of view, depressive disorders are the most significant mental health disorders that begin in adolescence. Using prospective and longitudinal design, this study aimed to increase the understanding of early-onset depressive disorders, related mental health disorders and developing substance use in a large population-derived sample of adolescent Finnish twins. The participants of this study, FinnTwin12, an ongoing longitudinal population-based study, came from Finnish families with twins born in 1983-87 (exhaustive of five birth cohorts, identified from Finland s Central Population Register). With follow-up ongoing at age 20-24, this thesis assessed adolescent mental health in the first three waves, starting from baseline age 11-12 to follow-ups at age 14 and 17½. Some 5600 twins participated in questionnaire assessments of a wide range of health related behaviors. Mental health was further assessed among an intensively studied subsample of 1852 adolescents, who completed also professionally administered interviews at age 14, which provided data for full DSM-IV/III-R (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Health disorders, 4th and 3rd editions) diagnoses. The participation rates of the study were 87-92%. The results of the study suggest, that the diagnostic criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD) may not capture youth with clinically significant early-onset depressive conditions outside clinical settings. Milder cases of depression, namely adolescents fulfilling the diagnostic criteria for minor depressive disorder, a qualitatively similar condition to MDD with fewer symptoms are also associated with marked suicidal thoughts, plans and attempts, recurrences and a high degree of comorbidity. Prospectively and longitudinally, early-onset depressive disorders were of substantial importance in the context of other mental health disorders and substance use behaviors: These data from a large population-derived sample established a substantial overlap between early-onset depressive disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in adolescent females, both of them significantly predictive for development of substance use among girls. Only in females baseline DSM-IV ADHD symptoms were strong predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence and illicit drug use at age 14 and frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use at age 17.½ when conduct disorder and previous substance use were controlled for. Early-onset depressive disorders were also prospectively and longitudinally associated to daily smoking behavior, smokeless tobacco use, frequent alcohol use and illicit drug use and eating disorders. Analysis of discordant twins suggested that these predictive associations were independent of familial confounds, such as family income, structure and parental models. In sum, early-onset depressive disorders predict subsequent involvement of substance use and psychiatric morbidity. A heightened risk for substance use is substantial also among those depressed below categorical diagnosis of MDD. Whether early recognition and interventions among these young people hold potential for substance use prevention further in their lives has potential public health significance and calls for more research. Data from this population-derived sample with balanced representation of boys and girls, suggested that boys and girls with ADHD behaviors may differ from each other in their vulnerability to substance use and depressive disorders: the data suggest more adverse substance use outcome for girls that was not attenuated by conduct disorder or previous substance use. Further, the prospective associations of early-onset depressive disorders and future elevated levels of addictive substance use is not explained by familial factors supporting future substance use, which could have important implications for substance use prevention.

Predictors of disability retirement: From early intentions to retirement

The strong tendency of elderly employees to retire early and the simultaneous aging of the population have been major topics of policy and scientific debate. A key concern has been the financing of future pension schemes and possible labour shortage, especially in social and health services within the public sector. The aging of the population is inevitable, but efforts can be made to prevent or postpone early exit from the labour force, e.g., by identifying and intervening in the factors that contribute to the process of early retirement due to disability. The associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health and different psychosocial factors with the process of disability retirement are still poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of intentions to retire early, poor mental health, work and family related psychosocial factors and experiences of earlier life stages with the process of disability retirement. The data were derived from the Helsinki Health Study (HHS, N=8960) and the Health and Social Support Study (HeSSup, N=25 901). The Helsinki Health Study is an ongoing employee cohort study among middle-aged women and men. The Health and Social Support Study is an ongoing longitudinal study of a working-age sample representative of the Finnish population. The analyses were restricted to respondents 40 years of age or older. Age and gender adjusted prevalence and incidence rates were calculated. Associations were studied by using logistic, multinomial and Cox regression. Strong intentions to retire early were common among employees. Poor mental health, unfavourable working conditions and work-to-family conflicts were clearly associated with increased intentions to retire early. Strong intentions to retire early predicted disability retirement. Risk of disability retirement increased in a dose-response manner with increasing number of childhood adversities. Poor mental and somatic health, life dissatisfaction, heavy alcohol consumption, current smoking, obesity and low socioeconomic status were also predictors of disability retirement. The impact of poor mental health and adverse experiences from earlier life stages, work and family related psychosocial factors, e.g., work-family interface, the subjective experience of well-being and health related risk behaviours on the process of disability retirement should be recognised. Preventive measures against disability retirement should be launched before subjective experience of ill health, work disability and strong intentions to retire early emerge.

Elizabeth Krakauer nee Gottschalk in an unknown early Krakauer apartment.

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Serum testosterone levels during the menstrual-cycle and early-pregnancy in the bonnet monkey (macaca-radiata)

Abstract is not available.

Early detection of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese and Indian adult population

Objectives of this study were to determine secular trends of diabetes prevalence in China and develop simple risk assessment algorithms for screening individuals with high-risk for diabetes or with undiagnosed diabetes in Chinese and Indian adults. Two consecutive population based surveys in Chinese and a prospective study in Mauritian Indians were involved in this study. The Chinese surveys were conducted in randomly selected populations aged 20-74 years in 2001-2002 (n=14 592) and 35-74 years in 2006 (n=4416). A two-step screening strategy using fasting capillary plasma glucose (FCG) as first-line screening test followed by standard 2-hour 75g oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was applied to 12 436 individuals in 2001, while OGTTs were administrated to all participants together with FCG in 2006 and to 2156 subjects in 2002. In Mauritius, two consecutive population based surveys were conducted in Mauritian Indians aged 20-65 years in 1987 and 1992; 3094 Indians (1141 men), who were not diagnosed as diabetes at baseline, were reexamined with OGTTs in 1992 and/or 1998. Diabetes and pre-diabetes was defined following 2006 World Health Organization/ International Diabetes Federation Criteria. Age-standardized, as well as age- and sex-specific, prevalence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in adult Chinese was significantly increased from 12.2% and 15.4% in 2001 to 16.0% and 21.2% in 2006, respectively. A simple Chinese diabetes risk score was developed based on the data of Chinese survey 2001-2002 and validated in the population of survey 2006. The risk scores based on β coefficients derived from the final Logistic regression model ranged from 3 – 32. When the score was applied to the population of survey 2006, the area under operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score for screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.65-0.70), which was lower than the AUC of FCG (0.76 [0.74-0.79]), but similar to that of HbA1c (0.68 [0.65-0.71]). At a cut-off point of 14, the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score in screening undiagnosed diabetes was 0.84 (0.81-0.88) and 0.40 (0.38-0.41). In Mauritian Indian, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, family history of diabetes (FH), and glucose was confirmed to be independent risk predictors for developing diabetes. Predicted probabilities for developing diabetes derived from a simple Cox regression model fitted with sex, FH, BMI and waist girth ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, the AUC of the predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64(0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity was 0.72(0.71-0.74) and 0.47(0.45-0.49) in men; and 0.77(0.75-0.78) and 0.50(0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. In conclusion, there was a rapid increase in prevalence of diabetes in Chinese adults from 2001 to 2006. The simple risk assessment algorithms based on age, obesity and family history of diabetes showed a moderate discrimination of diabetes from non-diabetes, which may be used as first line screening tool for diabetes and pre-diabetes, and for health promotion purpose in Chinese and Indians.

Early growth and adult health: focus on blood pressure, glucose tolerance status and body composition

Theory of developmental origins of adult health and disease proposes that experiences during critical periods of early development may have consequences on health throughout a lifespan. Thesis studies aimed to characterize associations between early growth and some components of the metabolic syndrome cluster. Participants belong to two epidemiological cohorts with data on birth measurements and, for the younger cohort, on serial recordings of weight and height during childhood. They were born as singletons between 1924-33 and 1934-44 in the Helsinki University Central Hospital, and 500 and 2003 of them, respectively, attended clinical studies at the age of 65-75 and 56-70 years, respectively. In the 65-75 year old men and women, the well-known inverse relationship between birth weight and systolic blood pressure (SBP) was confined to people who had established hypertension. Among them a 1-kg increase in birth weight was associated with a 6.4-mmHg (95% CI: 1.0 to 11.9) decrease in SBP. This relationship was further confined to people with the prevailing Pro12Pro polymorphism of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ2 (PPARγ2) gene. People with low birth weight were more likely to receive angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-receptor blockers (ACEI/ARB, p=0.03), and, again, this relationship was confined to the carriers of the Pro12Pro (p=0.01 for interaction). These results suggest that the inverse association between birth weight and systolic BP becomes focused in hypertensive people because pathological features of BP regulation, associated with slow fetal growth, become self-perpetuating in adult life. Insulin resistance of the Pro12Pro carriers with low birth weight may interact with the renin-angiotensin system leading to raised BP levels. Habitual physical activity protected men and women who were small at birth, and thus at increased risk for the development of type 2 diabetes, against glucose intolerance more strongly. Among subjects with birth weight ≤3000 g, the odds ratio (OR) for glucose intolerance was 5.2 (95% CI: 2.1 to 13) in those who exercised less than 3 times per week compared to regular exercisers; in those who scored their exercise light compared with moderate exercisers (defined as comparable to brisk walking) the OR was 3.5 (1.5 to 8.2). In the 56-70 year old men a 1 kg increase in birth weight corresponded to a 4.1 kg (95% CI: 3.1 to 5.1) and in women to a 2.9 kg (2.1 to 3.6) increase in adult lean mass. Rapid gain in body mass index (BMI), i.e. crossing from an original BMI percentile to a higher one, before the age of 2 years increased adult lean mass index (LMI, lean mass/height squared) without excess fat accumulation whereas rapid gain in BMI during later childhood, despite the concurrent rise in LMI, resulted in a relatively higher increase in adult body fat mass. These findings illustrate how genes, the environment and their interactions, early growth patterns, and adult lifestyle modify adult health risks which originate from early life.

Six novel susceptibility Loci for early-onset androgenetic alopecia and their unexpected association with common diseases

Androgenetic alopecia (AGA) is a highly heritable condition and the most common form of hair loss in humans. Susceptibility loci have been described on the X chromosome and chromosome 20, but these loci explain a minority of its heritable variance. We conducted a large-scale meta-analysis of seven genome-wide association studies for early-onset AGA in 12,806 individuals of European ancestry. While replicating the two AGA loci on the X chromosome and chromosome 20, six novel susceptibility loci reached genome-wide significance (p = 2.62x10(-)(9)-1.01x10(-)(1)(2)). Unexpectedly, we identified a risk allele at 17q21.31 that was recently associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) at a genome-wide significant level. We then tested the association between early-onset AGA and the risk of PD in a cross-sectional analysis of 568 PD cases and 7,664 controls. Early-onset AGA cases had significantly increased odds of subsequent PD (OR = 1.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.55, p = 8.9x10(-)(3)). Further, the AGA susceptibility alleles at the 17q21.31 locus are on the H1 haplotype, which is under negative selection in Europeans and has been linked to decreased fertility. Combining the risk alleles of six novel and two established susceptibility loci, we created a genotype risk score and tested its association with AGA in an additional sample. Individuals in the highest risk quartile of a genotype score had an approximately six-fold increased risk of early-onset AGA [odds ratio (OR) = 5.78, p = 1.4x10(-)(8)(8)]. Our results highlight unexpected associations between early-onset AGA, Parkinson's disease, and decreased fertility, providing important insights into the pathophysiology of these conditions.

Implications of co-twin dependence for twins' social interactions, mental health and alcohol use : A follow-up study of Finnish twins from adolescence to early adulthood

Objective: The aim of the present study was to examine co-twin dependence and its impact on twins' social contacts, leisure-time activities and psycho-emotional well-being. The role of co-twin dependence was also examined as a moderator of genetic and environmental influences on alcohol use in adolescence and in early adulthood. Methods: The present report is based on the Finnish Twin Cohort Study (FinnTwin16), a population-based study of five consecutive birth cohorts of Finnish twins born in the years 1975-1979. Baseline assessments were collected through mailed questionnaires, within two months of the twins' sixteenth birthday yielding replies from 5563 twin individuals. All respondent twins were sent follow-up questionnaires at ages of 17, 18½, and in early adulthood, when twins were 22-27 years old. Measures: The questionnaires included a survey of health habits and attitudes, a symptom checklist and questions about twins' relationships with parents, peers and co-twin. Measures used were twins' self-reports of their own dependence and their co-twin's dependence at age 16, reports of twins' leisure-time activities and social contacts, alcohol use, psychological distress and somatic symptoms both in adolescence and in early adulthood. Results: In the present study 25.6% of twins reported dependence on their co-twin. There were gender and zygosity differences in dependence, females and MZ twins were more likely to report dependence than males and DZ twins. Co-twin dependence can be viewed on one hand as an individual characteristic, but on the other hand as a pattern of dyadic interaction that is mutually regulated and reciprocal. Most of the twins (80.7%) were either concordantly co-twin dependent or concordantly co-twin independent. The associations of co-twin dependence with twins' social interactions and psycho-emotional characteristics were relatively consistent both in adolescence and in early adulthood. Dependence was related to higher contact frequency and a higher proportion of shared leisure-time activities between twin siblings at the baseline and the follow-up. Additionally co-twin dependence was associated with elevated levels of psycho-emotional distress and somatic complaints, especially in adolescence. In the framework of gene-environment interaction, these results suggest that the genetic contribution to individual differences in drinking patterns is dependent on the nature of the pair-wise relationship of twin siblings. Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that co-twin dependence is a genuine feature of the co-twin relationship and shows the importance of studying the impact of various features of co-twin relationships on individual twins' social and psycho-emotional life and well-being. Our study also offers evidence that differences in inter-personal relationships contribute to the effects of genetic propensities.

Pre-service early childhood teachers and designers partnering for change at The Lone Pine Koala Sanctuary: An interdisciplinary education and design for sustainability project

This presentation discusses and critiques a current case study of a project in which Early Childhood preservice teachers are working in partnership with Design students to develop principles and concepts for the design and construction of an early childhood centre. This centre, to be built on the grounds of the iconic Lone Pine Koala Sanctuary in Brisbane , focuses on Education for Sustainability (EfS), sustainable design and sustainable business. Interdisciplinary initiatives between QUT staff and students from two Faculties (Education and Creative Industries) have been situated in the real –world context of this project. This practical, authentic project has seen stakeholders take an interdisciplinary approach to sustainability, opening up new ways of thinking about early childhood centre design, particularly with respect to operation and function. Interdisciplinarity and a commitment to genuine partnerships have created intellectual spaces to re-think the potential of the disciplines to be interwoven so that future professionals from different fields might come together to learn from each other and to address the sustainability imperative. The case study documents and explores the possibilities that the Lone Pine project offers for academics and students from Early Childhood and Design to collaboratively inform the Sanctuary’s vision for the Centre. The research examines how students benefit from practical, real world, community-integrated learning; how academic staff across two disciplines are able to work collaboratively within a real-world context; and how external stakeholders experience and benefit from the partnership with university staff and students. Data were collected via a series of focus group and individual interviews designed to explore how the various stakeholders (staff, students, business partners) experienced their involvement in the interdisciplinary project. Inductive and deductive thematic analysis of these data suggest many benefits for participants as well as a number of challenges. Findings suggest that the project has provided students with ‘real world’ partnerships that reposition early childhood students’ identities from ‘novice’ to ‘professional’, where their knowledge, expertise and perspectives are simultaneously validated and challenged in their work with designers. These partnerships are enabling preservice teachers to practice a new model of early childhood leadership in sustainability, one that is vital for leading for change in an increasingly complex world. This presentation celebrates, critiques and problematises this project, exploring wider implications for other contexts in which university staff and students may seek to work across traditional boundaries, thus building partnerships for change.