Efectos de ciclos de precios de metales : estimación de un modelo de equilibrio general con time to build para la economía peruana, 2001-2015

En el presente documento se estudia el desempeño que ha tenido Perú durante la última fase expansiva del ciclo de precios de commodities, específicamente entre los años 2001 y 2015. Para esto, se desarrolla un modelo de equilibrio general estocástico y dinámico, basado en Medina y Soto (2007) y Fornero y Kichner (2014), que incorpora un sector productor de commodities con inversión del tipo time to build. El modelo es estimado de forma lineal y a partir de este se muestra la importancia que tienen los choques de precios commodities sobre el resto de la actividad económica. Asimismo, se analizan distintos tipos de políticas fiscales y monetarias, ante este tipo de choques. También se obtienen políticas monetarias óptimas a partir de la función de pérdida de la autoridad monetaria. Los resultados de la investigación apuntan a que, cuando hay un incremento en el precio de los commodities, se genera una dinámica procíclica en el valor de la producción de todos los sectores, en la inversión, el consumo y el gasto del Gobierno. Además, se encuentra que la incorporación del mecanismo de time to build permite explicar mejor la dinámica observada. Dicho mecanismo ayuda a comprender que el choque en cuestión demora en propagarse, ya que los proyectos mineros toman tiempo en construirse. Este aporte metodológico es de particular relevancia en los ejercicios de modelamiento y predicción que se quieran realizar sobre la economía peruana.

Use of sulfuryl fluoride in the management of strongly phosphine-resistant insect pest populations in bulk grain storages in Australia

Sulfuryl fluoride (SF), an effective structural fumigant, is registered recently as Profume™ for controlling insect pests of stored grains and processed commodities. Information on its effectiveness in disinfestation of bulk grain, however, is limited. The ongoing problem with the strong level of resistance to phosphine has been addressed recently through deployment of SF as a ‘resistance breaker’ in bulk storages in Australia. This paper discusses important results on the efficacy of SF against key phosphine- resistant insect pests, lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominca, red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, rice weevil, Sitophilus oryzae and the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus. We have established CT (g-hm3) profiles for SF against these insect pests at two temperature regimes 25 and 30°C, that showed that both temperature and exposure period (t) has significant influence on the effectiveness of SF than the concentration. Over a seven days fumigation period, CTs of 800 and 400 g-hm3 achieved complete control of all the target pests, including the most strongly phosphine - resistant species, C. ferrugineus at 25 and 30°C, respectively. Results from four industry scale field trials involving currently registered rate of SF (1500 g-hm3) over 2–14 d exposure period, confirmed its effectiveness in achieving complete control of the target pest species. The assessment of postfumigation grain samples across all the test storages indicated that the reinfestation occurs after three months. Monitoring resistance to phosphine in C. ferrugineus over a six year period (2009–2015), showed a significant reduction in resistant populations after the introduction of SF into the fumigation strategy at problematic storage sites. Overall our research concludes that SF is a good candidate to be used as a ‘resistance breaker’ where phosphine resistance is prevalent.

Status of resistance to phosphine in insect pests of stored products in Vietnam

In response to numerous reports of failures to control insect pests of stored products with phosphine in Vietnam, a national survey for resistance to this key fumigant was undertaken in 2009–2011. Data from a more limited survey undertaken by the authors in 2002 in northern Vietnam are also presented. Samples collected in the 2002 survey (Sitophilus oryzae, n=8; Tribolium castaneum, n=8) were tested using a full dose- response assay, while for the 2009–11 survey, F1 generations were tested for resistance with two discriminating dosages of phosphine to detect frequency of weak and strong resistance phenotypes. Compared with a susceptible reference strain, in 2002, resistance to phosphine was indicated in six T. castaneum samples but only two of S. oryzae. Resistance factor, however, did not exceed 2.8-fold in T. castaneum and 1.7 in S. oryzae indicating relatively low frequency and weak expression of resistance. In 2009–11 survey, 176 samples were collected from a range of food and feed storages along the supply chain and from all major regions of Vietnam (125 sites). Rhyzopertha dominica and S. oryzae were the most common species found infesting stored commodities. Resistance was detected at high frequency in all the species. Weak and strong resistance phenotype frequencies were, respectively: Cryptolestes ferrugineus (37 and 58%, n=19), R. dominica (1.5 and 97%, n=65), S. oryzae (34 and 59%, n=82) and T. castaneum (70 and 30%, n=10). Strong resistance phenotype was detected in all the major regions and all parts of the supply chain but frequency was the highest in central storages and animal feed establishments. The increase in frequency and strength of resistance to phosphine in the eight years between the two surveys has been rapid and dramatic. The survey demonstrates the threat of resistance to grain protection in Vietnam and highlights the need for training of fumigators, and the development and adoption of phosphine resistance management tactics nationally.

Climate changes and mycotoxins: two risk factors associated!

Many species of fungi produce bioactive compounds called mycotoxins. These compounds are produced by filamentous fungi and can contaminate food, feeds and specific indoor environments resulting in high economic losses. Severe health problems and death have been related with mycotoxins exposure through the consumption of several food commodities. There are many factors involved in mycotoxin production by fungi but climate is the most important. Thus, when changes in the weather occur, mycotoxins production will be affected. We looked for articles that were available in scientific databases, written in English and that mention in the title and/or abstract the combined terms fungi and climate change and also mycotoxins and climate change.

Risk assessment of exposure to multiple mycotoxins in food

Moulds may produce a diversity of toxins such as aflatoxins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes, zearalenone, fumonisins and others. Although toxicological, environmental and epidemiological studies have addressed the problem of these toxins one by one, more than one mycotoxin are found usually in the same contaminated food. Risk assessment for humans potentially exposed to multimycotoxins suffers very much from the lack of adequate food consumption data. Furthermore, for a given mycotoxin, synergism and antagonism with other mycotoxins, found in the same food commodities, are not taken into account. Aflatoxin B1 and ochratoxin A belong to the most frequently occurring mycotoxins. This has repeatedly been demonstrated, however, normally, the risk resulting from their simultaneous occurrence is not considered. A descriptive study was developed to monitor air fungal contamination in one hospital food unit.

«Donde se forman las expediciones definitivas» El hombre perdido y las «novelas de la nebulosa» de Ramón Gómez de la Serna

[es] El presente trabajo analiza las «novelas de la nebulosa» de Ramón Gómez de la Serna y especialmente El hombre perdido (1947) como culminación y cierre de la práctica ramoniana del des/hacer, ejemplificada plenamente a partir de los «libros ultravertebrados» como El Rastro (1914). Por tal práctica entendemos, a partir de Fredric Jameson, la expresión estética del ideologema de la circulación de la mercancía, en tanto que Ramón deshace la realidad, las cosas, para ponerlas de nuevo en circulación a través de sus «precipitados nuevos» de cosas, o greguerías. La nebulosa a la que se retira el protagonista anónimo de El hombre perdido al final de la obra es el no-lugar del cese de la circulación de imágenes, de imágenesmercancías. Ese no-espacio es al mismo tiempo el del fin de la creación artística y el lugar donde abrazar la disolución de la existencia. Como consecuencia de esto último, en un giro rehumanizador de su obra, la «nebulosa» es una solución nihilista a la creciente angustia ante la vida y la muerte del Ramón exiliado en Buenos Aires desde 1936. [en] This article analyses the “novelas de la nebulosa” by Ramón Gómez de la Serna and especially El hombre perdido (1947) as the culmination and end of Ramón’s literary practice of the “des/hacer”, implemented in his “libros ultravertebrados”, of which El Rastro (1914) is the first best example. Following Fredric Jameson, we understand that literary practice as the aesthetic expression of the ideologeme of the circulation of the commodity, since Ramón unleashes reality, dissolves its apparent configuration in order to re-circulate reality under the guise of his “greguerías”, or metaphorical “precipitates” of things. The “nebulosa” to which the protagonist of El hombre perdido retires at the end of the novel is the no-place where the circulation of commodities or image-commodities has ceased. That no-space represents at the same time the end of the artistic creativity and the place for embracing the dissolution of existence. As a consequence, his work takes here a re-humanizing turn that transforms the “nebulosa” in a sort of nihilistic solution to the increasing anguish in front of life and death that is tormenting Ramón since his exile in Argentina after 1936.

Occupational exposure to mycotoxins: aspects to consider for the aggregate and cumulative risk assessment

Mycotoxins are an important group of naturally occurring substances known to contaminate a huge variety of agricultural products, feed and food commodities. The main concern is their widespread presence and toxic effects on humans and animals as they have been described as cytotoxic, nephrotoxic, hepatotoxic, teratogenic, immunosuppressive, mutagenic and/or carcinogenic. However, until now, risk assessments and regulations have usually been performed on individual mycotoxins despite humans and animals are being frequently exposed to a multitude of mycotoxins simultaneously. Moreover, even though some exposures through inhalation and dermal contact may potentially occur, only oral ingestion has been considered as the sole route of exposure in all the evaluations. However, more recent studies have also demonstrated airborne exposure to mycotoxins in different occupational settings with emphasis on agricultural professions. In these cases, skin contact with mold-infested substrates and inhalation of spore-borne toxins are the most important sources of exposure. Still, mycotoxins are not normally recongnize as na occupational hazard and exposure is different from the one ocurring by food intake. In this case, exposure is charaterized to be acute and simultaneous to other mycotoxins and also to fungi and dust. All these features increase the challenge implicated in the risk assessment process. Some topics will be presented and discussed in detailed such as: What occupational settings should be consider in this case; possible exposure routes; exposure characterization; how to assess exposure; co-exposure; aggregate exposure and cumulative risk assessment.

Contratos futuros sobre o petróleo: um estudo sobre a assimetria na volatilidade

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Predicción de volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del mercado del azúcar y su aplicación en la razón de cobertura

Este trabajo predice la volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del precio del azúcar, en el período compren­dido entre 1 de junio de 2011 y el 24 de octubre de 2013. Los datos diarios utilizados fueron los precios del azúcar, del etanol y la tasa de cambio de la moneda de Brasil (Real) en dólares. Se usaron modelos multivariados de volatilidad autoregresiva condicional generalizada. A partir de la predicción de los precios del azúcar se calcula la razón de cobertura de mínima varianza. Los resultados muestran, que la razón de cobertura es 0.37, esto significa que, si un productor adverso al riesgo, que tiene la intención de eliminar un porcentaje de la volatilidad de la rentabilidad diaria del mercado mundial del azúcar, y espera vender 25 contratos de azúcar, cada uno de ellos de 50,84 toneladas (1.271 toneladas), el número de contratos optimo tomando cobertura a futuro será 9 y el número de contratos sin tomar cobertura (de contado) será 16.

La cadena de valor del cacao en Perú y su oportunidad en el mercado mundial

El objetivo de este trabajo es describir las características de la cadena de valor del cacao en Perú. Para ello se realiza un estudio de tipo documental que relata el desempeño de los mercados de comodities agrarios, la comercialización de estos, el funcionamiento de la cadena en el País y la explicación de la estrategia nacional para este producto. Como resultado se plantea que el contexto en que se desarrolla el cacao peruano presenta ventajas debido a los problemas que tienen los productores en África, el potencial del mercado internacional con la inclusión de China e India, y el apoyo que el Estado está brindando a los pequeños produc­tores, lo que debe ser aprovechado a través de la formación de cadenas de valor

Glimpses of British Guiana at the Colonial and Indian Exhibition, 1886

This paper uses the example of the British Guiana Court at the Colonial and Indian Exhibition of 1886 as a case study to demonstrate how British Guiana (now Guyana) was represented in Britain at the time, by cross-referencing different materials (e.g. objects, correspondence, reports, and newspapers from that period). This exhibition also shows which raw materials from the British Guiana were of interest to Britain and the involvement of Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew in this matter. Nevertheless, the exhibition not only displayed objects and commodities, such as the case of sugar, but also displayed people. Here, particular attention is paid to the Amerindians who were portrayed as living ethnological exhibits at the exhibition. This paper aims to understand how British Guiana was seen and administered by its mother country and also how Everard im Thurn (1852-1932), the explorer, sought to manoeuvre that representation, as well as his relation with RBG, Kew. Taking into consideration that this colony was a neglected area of the British Empire, even in im Thurn’s time, this exhibition was an opportunity not only to display the empire but also for advertising the potential of the neglected colony and to ensure that it would not be forgotten.

From the field to the table: ionizing radiation as a feasible postharvest treatment for fresh and dried plant foods

Food irradiation is a treatment that involves subjecting in-bulk or packaged food to a controlled dose of ionizing radiation, with a clearly defined goal. It has been used for disinfestation and sanitization of food commodities and to retard postharvest ripening and senescence processes, being a sustainable alternative to chemical agents 1 . Doses up to 10 kGy are approved by several international authorities for not offering negative effects to food from a nutrition and toxicology point of view 2 . However, the adoption of this technology for food applications has been a slow process due to some misunderstandings by the consumer who often chooses non-irradiated foods. In this study, the effects of the ionizing radiation treatment on physical, chemical and bioactive properties of dried herbs and its suitability for preserving quality attributes of fresh vegetables during cold storage were evaluated. The studied herbs, perennial spotted rockrose (Tuberaria lignosa (Sweet) Samp.) and common mallow (Malva neglecta Wallr.) were freeze-dried and then irradiated up to 10 kGy in a Cobalt-60 chamber. The selected vegetables, watercress (Nasturtium officinale R. Br.) and buckler sorrel (Rumex induratus Boiss. Reut.) were rinsed in tap water, packaged in polyethylene bags, submitted to irradiation doses up to 6 kGy and then were stored at 4 C for a period of up to 12 days. Physical, chemical and bioactive parameters of irradiated and non-irradiated samples were evaluated using different methodologies the colour was measured with a colorimeter, individual chemical compounds were analyzed by chromatographic techniques, antioxidant properties were evaluated using in vitro assays based on different reaction mechanisms, and other quality analyses were performed following official methods of analysis. The irradiation treatment did not significantly affect the colour of the perennial spotted rockrose samples, or its phenolic composition and antioxidant activity 3 . Medium doses preserved the colour of common mallow and a low dose did not induce any adverse effect in the organic acids profile. The green colour of the irradiated vegetables was maintained during cold storage but the treatment had pros and cons in other quality attributes. The 2 kGy dose preserved free sugars and favoured polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) while the 5 kGy dose favoured tocopherols and preserved the antioxidant properties in watercress samples. The 6 kGy dose was a suitable option for preserving PUFA and the ω-6 ω-3 fatty acids ratio in buckler sorrel samples. This comprehensive experimental work allowed selecting appropriate processing doses for the studied plant foods in order to preserve its quality attributes and edibility.

Effects of gamma radiation in mycotoxin descontamination of Aloysia citrodora Paláu

The interest and demand for aromatic and medicinal plants have been growing due to their combined organoleptic and bioactive properties. However, in general these plants suffer natural contamination by fungi and associated toxins during growth as also in harvesting, storage and drying processes, which represents a threat to public health. The rigorous standards required by the industrial sector in terms of good quality of raw materials demand efficient decontamination procedures (1-3). Gamma radiation is assumed as an accredited methodology for the decontamination of medicinal and aromatic plants, with numerous advantages not only to the product itself but also to the consumer and the environment (4). In this study, efficient methods for detecting aflatoxins (AFB" AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2) and ocratoxin A (OTA), were optimized and validated, and afterwards, applied to spiked samples of Aloysia citrodora Pahiu submitted to gamma radiation treatment at different doses (I , 5 and I 0 kGy ), to evaluate the effectiveness of irradiation as a decontamination technique for dry plants. Mycotoxin levels were determined by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with fluorescence detection, after immunoaffinity column (lAC) cleanup. All the applied gamma radiation doses conducted to a degradation of the studied mycotoxins. In relation to the control sample (0 kGy), the reduction rates in the irradiated samples ranged from 4.9 and 5.2% in OTA, 5.3 and 9.6% in AFBt. 12.3 and 13.5 in AFB2, 16.4 and 23.6 in AFG1 and, finally, 52.6 and 62.7% in AFG2. The gamma radiation dose of 5 kGy stood out as the best decontamination dose for AFB1 and AFG1, which are the most significant aflatoxins naturally found in food commodities. For OTA, AFG2 and AFB2 there was no significant difference in decontamination between doses. In conclusion, the extraction and analysis methods proved to be suitable for detection of aflatoxins and ocratoxin A in A. citrodora. Gamma radiation seems to be an effective technique for reducing aflatoxins G in A. citrodora, and eventually oth~r medicinal and aromatic plants. On the other hand, aflatoxins B and OTA are less affected by this treatment.

Active site engineering for heterogeneous catalysis using emerging nano-structured materials

The growing concern about the depletion of oil has spurred worldwide interest in finding alternative feedstocks for important petrochemical commodities and fuels. On the one hand, the enormous re-serves found (208 trillion cubic feet proven1), environmental sustainability and lower overall costs point to natural gas as the primary source for energy and chemicals in the near future.2 Nowadays the transformation of methane into useful chemicals and liquid fuels is only feasible via synthesis gas, a mixture of molecular hydrogen and carbon monoxide, that is further transformed to methanol or to hydrocarbons under moderate reaction conditions (150-350 °C and 10-100 bar).3 For a major cost reduction and in order to valorize small natural gas sources, either more efficient "syngas to products" catalysts should be produced or the manner in which methane is initially activated should be changed, ideally by developing catalysts able to directly oxidize methane to interesting products such as methanol. On the other hand, from the point of view of CO2 emissions, the use of the re-maining fossil resources will further contribute to global warming. In this scenario, the development of efficient routes for the transformation of CO2 into useful chemicals and fuels would represent a considerable step forward towards sustainability. Indeed, the environmental and economic incen-tives to develop processes for the conversion of CO2 into fuels and chemicals are great. However, for such conversions to become economically feasible, considerable research is necessary. In this lecture we will summarize our recent efforts into the design of new catalytic systems, based on MOFs and COFs, to address these challenges. Examples include the development of new Fe based FTS catalysts, electrocatalysts for the selective conversion of CO2 into syngas, the development of efficient catalysts for the utilization of formic acid as hydrogen storage vector and the development of new enzyme inspired systems for the direct transformation of methane to methanol under mild reaction conditions. References (1) http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=public:natural_gas_reserves. (2) Derouane, E. G.; Parmon, V.; Lemos, F.; Ribeiro, F. R. Sustainable Strategies for the Up-grading of Natural Gas: Fundamentals, Challenges, and Opportunities; Springer, 2005. (3) Rofer-DePoorter, C. K. Chemical Reviews. ACS Publications 1981, pp 447–474.

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop