905 resultados para Causal Judgment


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This study investigates the role of social media as a form of organizational knowledge sharing. Social media is investigated in terms of the Web 2.0 technologies that organizations provide their employees as tools of internal communication. This study is anchored in the theoretical understanding of social media as technologies which enable both knowledge collection and knowledge donation. This study investigates the factors influencing employees’ use of social media in their working environment. The study presents the multidisciplinary research tradition concerning knowledge sharing. Social media is analyzed especially in relation to internal communication and knowledge sharing. Based on previous studies, it is assumed that personal, organizational, and technological factors influence employees’ use of social media in their working environment. The research represents a case study focusing on the employees of the Finnish company Wärtsilä. Wärtsilä represents an eligible case organization for this study given that it puts in use several Web 2.0 tools in its intranet. The research is based on quantitative methods. In total 343 answers were obtained with the aid of an online survey which was available in Wärtsilä’s intranet. The associations between the variables are analyzed with the aid of correlations. Finally, with the aid of multiple linear regression analysis the causality between the assumed factors and the use of social media is tested. The analysis demonstrates that personal, organizational and technological factors influence the respondents’ use of social media. As strong predictive variables emerge the benefits that respondents expect to receive from using social media and respondents’ experience in using Web 2.0 in their private lives. Also organizational factors such as managers’ and colleagues’ activeness and organizational guidelines for using social media form a causal relationship with the use of social media. In addition, respondents’ understanding of their responsibilities affects their use of social media. The more social media is considered as a part of individual responsibilities, the more frequently social media is used. Finally, technological factors must be recognized. The more user-friendly social media tools are considered and the better technical skills respondents have, the more frequently social media is used in the working environment. The central references in relation to knowledge sharing include Chun Wei Choo’s (2006) work Knowing Organization, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hirotaka Takeuchi’s (1995) work The Knowledge Creating Company and Linda Argote’s (1999) work Organizational Learning.

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A visual world eye-tracking study investigated the activation and persistence of implicit causality information in spoken language comprehension. We showed that people infer the implicit causality of verbs as soon as they encounter such verbs in discourse, as is predicted by proponents of the immediate focusing account (Greene & McKoon, 1995; Koornneef & Van Berkum, 2006; Van Berkum, Koornneef, Otten, & Nieuwland, 2007). Interestingly, we observed activation of implicit causality information even before people encountered the causal conjunction. However, while implicit causality information was persistent as the discourse unfolded, it did not have a privileged role as a focusing cue immediately at the ambiguous pronoun when people were resolving its antecedent. Instead, our study indicated that implicit causality does not affect all referents to the same extent, rather it interacts with other cues in the discourse, especially when one of the referents is already prominently in focus.

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Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.

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Design creativity involves developing novel and useful solutions to design problems The research in this article is an attempt to understand how novelty of a design resulting from a design process is related to the kind of outcomes. described here as constructs, involved in the design process A model of causality, the SAPPhIRE model, is used as the basis of the analysis The analysis is based on previous research that shows that designing involves development and exploration of the seven basic constructs of the SAPPhIRE model that constitute the causal connection between the various levels of abstraction at which a design can be described The constructs am state change, action, parts. phenomenon. input. organs. and effect The following two questions are asked. Is there a relationship between novelty and the constructs? If them is a relationship, what is the degree of this relationship? A hypothesis is developed to answer the questions an increase in the number and variety of ideas explored while designing should enhance the variety of concept space. leading to an increase in the novelty of the concept space Eight existing observational studies of designing sessions are used to empirically validate the hypothesis Each designing session involves an individual designer. experienced or novice. solving a design problem by producing concepts and following a think-aloud protocol. The results indicate dependence of novelty of concept space on variety of concept space and dependence of variety of concept space on variety of idea space. thereby validating the hypothesis The Jesuits also reveal a strong correlation between novelty and the constructs, correlation value decreases as the abstraction level of the constructs reduces. signifying the importance of using constructs at higher abstraction levels for enhancing novelty

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This paper makes explicit the relation between relative part position and kinematic freedom of the parts which is implicitly available in the literature. An extensive set of representative papers in the areas of assembly and kinematic modelling is reviewed to specifically identify how the ideas in the two areas are related and influencing the development of each other. The papers are categorised by the approaches followed in the specification, representation, and solution of the part relations. It is observed that the extent of the part geometry is not respected in modelling schemes and as a result, the causal flow of events (proximity–contact–mobility) during the assembling process is not realised in the existing modelling paradigms, which are focusing on either the relative positioning problem or the relative motion problem. Though an assembly is a static description of part configuration, achievement of this configuration requires availability of relative motion for bringing parts together during the assembly process. On the other hand, the kinematic freedom of a part depends on the nature of contacting regions with other parts in its static configuration. These two problems are thus related through the contact geometry. The chronology of the approaches that significantly contributed to the development of the subject is also included in the paper.

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Causation is still poorly understood in strategy research, and confusion prevails around key concepts such as competitive advantage. In this paper, we define epistemological conditions that help to dispel some of this confusion and to provide a basis for more developed approaches. In particular, we argue that a counterfactual approach – that builds on a systematic analysis of ‘what-if’ questions – can advance our understanding of key causal mechanisms in strategy research. We offer two concrete methodologies – counterfactual history and causal modeling – as useful solutions. We also show that these methodologies open up new avenues in research on competitive advantage. Counterfactual history can add to our understanding of the context-specific construction of resource-based competitive advantage and path dependence, and causal modeling can help to reconceptualize the relationships between resources and performance. In particular, resource properties can be regarded as mediating mechanisms in these causal relationships.

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Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

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In Somalia the central government collapsed in 1991 and since then state failure became a widespread phenomenon and one of the greatest political and humanitarian problems facing the world in this century. Thus, the main objective of this research is to answer the following question: What went wrong? Most of the existing literature on the political economy of conflict starts from the assumption that state in Africa is predatory by nature. Unlike these studies, the present research, although it uses predation theory, starts from the social contract approach of state definition. Therefore, rather than contemplating actions and policies of the rulers alone, this approach allows us to deliberately bring the role of the society – as citizens – and other players into the analyses. In Chapter 1, after introducing the study, a simple principal-agent model will be developed to check the logical consistence of the argument and to make the identification of causal mechanism easier. I also identify three main actors in the process of state failure in Somalia: the Somali state, Somali society and the superpowers. In Chapter 2, so as to understand the incentives, preferences and constraints of each player in the state failure game, I in some depth analyse the evolution and structure of three central informal institutions: identity based patronage system of leadership, political tribalism, and the Cold War. These three institutions are considered as the rules of the game in the Somali state failure. Chapter 3 summarises the successive civilian governments’ achievements and failures (1960-69) concerning the main national goals, national unification and socio-economic development. Chapter 4 shows that the military regime, although it assumed power through extralegal means, served to some extent the developmental interest of the citizens in the first five years of its rule. Chapter 5 shows the process, and the factors involved, of the military regime’s self-transformation from being an agent for the developmental interests of the society to a predatory state that not only undermines the interests of the society but that also destroys the state itself. Chapter 6 addresses the process of disintegration of the post-colonial state of Somalia. The chapter shows how the regime’s merciless reactions to political ventures by power-seeking opposition leaders shattered the entire country and wrecked the state institutions. Chapter 7 concludes the study by summarising the main findings: due to the incentive structures generated by the informal institutions, the formal state institutions fell apart.

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On the one hand this thesis attempts to develop and empirically test an ethically defensible theorization of the relationship between human resource management (HRM) and competitive advantage. The specific empirical evidence indicates that at least part of HRM's causal influence on employee performance may operate indirectly through a social architecture and then through psychological empowerment. However, in particular the evidence concerning a potential influence of HRM on organizational performance seems to put in question some of the rhetorics within the HRM research community. On the other hand, the thesis tries to explicate and defend a certain attitude towards the philosophically oriented debates within organization science. This involves suggestions as to how we should understand meaning, reference, truth, justification and knowledge. In this understanding it is not fruitful to see either the problems or the solutions to the problems of empirical social science as fundamentally philosophical ones. It is argued that the notorious problems of social science, in this thesis exemplified by research on HRM, can be seen as related to dynamic complexity in combination with both the ethical and pragmatic difficulty of ”laboratory-like-experiments”. Solutions … can only be sought by informed trials and errors depending on the perceived familiarity with the object(s) of research. The odds are against anybody who hopes for clearly adequate social scientific answers to more complex questions. Social science is in particular unlikely to arrive at largely accepted knowledge of the kind ”if we do this, then that will happen”, or even ”if we do this, then that is likely to happen”. One of the problems probably facing most of the social scientific research communities is to specify and agree upon the ”this ” and the ”that” and provide convincing evidence of how they are (causally) related. On most more complex questions the role of social science seems largely to remain that of contributing to a (critical) conversation, rather than to arrive at more generally accepted knowledge. This is ultimately what is both argued and, in a sense, demonstrated using research on the relationship between HRM and organizational performance as an example.

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Non-Gaussianity of signals/noise often results in significant performance degradation for systems, which are designed using the Gaussian assumption. So non-Gaussian signals/noise require a different modelling and processing approach. In this paper, we discuss a new Bayesian estimation technique for non-Gaussian signals corrupted by colored non Gaussian noise. The method is based on using zero mean finite Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for signal and noise. The estimation is done using an adaptive non-causal nonlinear filtering technique. The method involves deriving an estimator in terms of the GMM parameters, which are in turn estimated using the EM algorithm. The proposed filter is of finite length and offers computational feasibility. The simulations show that the proposed method gives a significant improvement compared to the linear filter for a wide variety of noise conditions, including impulsive noise. We also claim that the estimation of signal using the correlation with past and future samples leads to reduced mean squared error as compared to signal estimation based on past samples only.

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The recession that hit the Finnish economy at the beginning of the 1990s has been regarded as unusually severe. Organisations’ failure to survive the recession has been researched in their various aspects. However, the reasons for why and how organisations that survived did so have been explored to a somewhat lesser extent. This study concerns organisations that survived rather than those that failed to do so, as studying successful experiences is acknowledged as an important source for learning how to counteract future failure. The thesis examines four knowledge intensive organisations, with the focus on managerial and social aspects of the crisis handling processes. The study deals with managers’ and co-workers’ stories about organisational attempts to survive, rather than seeking to identify causal relationships. Drawing upon a narrative approach and a social constructionist perspective, the crisis handling processes are treated as reconstructions and rationalisations of what happened. A primary assumption of this thesis is that we make sense of experiences in retrospect, and the aim is to describe the handling of crisis situations and the hardships related to economic difficulties, by focusing on the interviewees’ explanations of how those difficulties were dealt with. The stories are about taking control despite the threats induced by an extremely severe economic recession, remaining active, how the managers and their co-workers dealt with the uncertainty experienced, and how the organisations subsequently survived. The analysis also interrogates such issues as trust, authenticity, legitimacy, identity and nostalgia in crisis contexts.

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A Continuation of the Happiness Success Story: Does Happiness Impact Service Quality? The effects of long-term happiness on various outcomes for the individual and society have been studied extensively in psychology but the concept has so far received limited research attention in marketing. Happiness is defined as a summary judgment of one’s life. Previous research has shown that happiness is a relatively stable perception of happiness in one’s life. Thus, happiness in this thesis is long-term and more global as a phenomenon than in the marketing literature, where happiness is commonly conceptualized as an emotion, feeling or momentary state of happiness. Although there is plenty of research on consumer affect and its impact on service responses, there are no studies on the effect of long-term happiness on service evaluation. As empirical evidence suggests that happy people perceive smaller and bigger events in life more positively than less happy people and that happy people are more prone to experience positive feelings and less of negative feelings it was hypothesized that happiness affects service quality directly but also indirectly through mood. Therefore, in this thesis, it was set out to explore if happiness affects customer-perceived service quality. A survey method was adopted to study the relationship between happiness, mood and service quality. Two studies were conducted with a total of 17 investigated services. Out of the 17 different investigated cases, happiness was found to positively affect service quality in only four cases. The results from the two studies also provide weak support for a positive relationship between mood and service quality. Out of the 17 cases, mood was found to positively affect service quality in only three cases and the results provide additional evidence for the stream of literature arguing that affect plays no or only a minimal role in service quality. Based on the collective results in this study, it can be concluded that the evidence for a positive relationship between happiness, mood and service quality is weak. However, in this thesis, it was recognized that the happiness concept is relevant for marketers and serve potential to explain marketing related phenomena. Marketing researchers who are interested in studying happiness are advised to focus research attention on consumer well-being.

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We recently introduced the dynamical cluster approximation (DCA), a technique that includes short-ranged dynamical correlations in addition to the local dynamics of the dynamical mean-field approximation while preserving causality. The technique is based on an iterative self-consistency scheme on a finite-size periodic cluster. The dynamical mean-field approximation (exact result) is obtained by taking the cluster to a single site (the thermodynamic limit). Here, we provide details of our method, explicitly show that it is causal, systematic, Phi derivable, and that it becomes conserving as the cluster size increases. We demonstrate the DCA by applying it to a quantum Monte Carlo and exact enumeration study of the two-dimensional Falicov-Kimball model. The resulting spectral functions preserve causality, and the spectra and the charge-density-wave transition temperature converge quickly and systematically to the thermodynamic limit as the cluster size increases.

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Cosmopolitan ideals have been on the philosophical agenda for several millennia but the end of the Cold War started a new discussion on state sovereignty, global democracy, the role of international law and global institutions. The Westphalian state system in practice since the 17th century is transforming and the democracy deficit needs new solutions. An impetus has been the fact that in the present world, an international body representing global citizens does not exist. In this Master’s thesis, the possibility of establishing a world parliament is examined. In a case analysis, 17 models on world parliament from two journals, a volume of essays and two other publications are discussed. Based on general observations, the models are divided into four thematic groups. The models are analyzed with an emphasis on feasible and probable elements. Further, a new scenario with a time frame of thirty years is proposed based on the methodology of normative futures studies, taking special interest in causal relationships and actions leading to change. The scenario presents three gradual steps that each need to be realized before a sustainable world parliament is established. The theoretical framework is based on social constructivism, and changes in international and multi-level governance are examined with the concepts of globalization, democracy and sovereignty. A feasible, desirable and credible world parliament is constituted gradually by implying electoral, democratic and legal measures for members initially from exclusively democratic states, parliamentarians, non-governmental organizations and other groups. The parliament should be located outside the United Nations context, since a new body avoids the problem of inefficiency currently prevailing in the UN. The main objectives of the world parliament are to safeguard peace and international law and to offer legal advice in cases when international law has been violated. A feasible world parliament is advisory in the beginning but it is granted legislative powers in the future. The number of members in the world parliament could also be extended following the example of the EU enlargement process.

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This thesis is composed of an introductory chapter and four applications each of them constituting an own chapter. The common element underlying each of the chapters is the econometric methodology. The applications rely mostly on the leading econometric techniques related to estimation of causal effects. The first chapter introduces the econometric techniques that are employed in the remaining chapters. Chapter 2 studies the effects of shocking news on student performance. It exploits the fact that the school shooting in Kauhajoki in 2008 coincided with the matriculation examination period of that fall. It shows that the performance of men declined due to the news of the school shooting. For women the similar pattern remains unobserved. Chapter 3 studies the effects of minimum wage on employment by employing the original Card and Krueger (1994; CK) and Neumark and Wascher (2000; NW) data together with the changes-in-changes (CIC) estimator. As the main result it shows that the employment effect of an increase in the minimum wage is positive for small fast-food restaurants and negative for big fast-food restaurants. Therefore, it shows that the controversial positive employment effect reported by CK is overturned for big fast-food restaurants and that the NW data are shown, in contrast to their original results, to provide support for the positive employment effect. Chapter 4 employs the state-specific U.S. data (collected by Cohen and Einav [2003; CE]) on traffic fatalities to re-evaluate the effects of seat belt laws on the traffic fatalities by using the CIC estimator. It confirms the CE results that on the average an implementation of a mandatory seat belt law results in an increase in the seat belt usage rate and a decrease in the total fatality rate. In contrast to CE, it also finds evidence on compensating-behavior theory, which is observed especially in the states by the border of the U.S. Chapter 5 studies the life cycle consumption in Finland, with the special interest laid on the baby boomers and the older households. It shows that the baby boomers smooth their consumption over the life cycle more than other generations. It also shows that the old households smoothed their life cycle consumption more as a result of the recession in the 1990s, compared to young households.