Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

Organisaation päätöksenteko ja tiedon rooli. Case: UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Kaukas

Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää, mihin päätöksenteko perustuu teollisuusyrityksessä. Tutkimuksessa kartoitettiin kohdeorganisaation päätöksentekijöiden näkemyksiä toimintaympäristöstään, itsestään päätöksentekijöinä ja päätöksenteosta sekä tiedosta ja sen käytöstä. Lisäksi sivutaan päätöksenteon sosiaalista luonnetta. Empiirisen tutkimuksen kohdeyksikkönä on UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Kaukas Lappeenrannassa. Tutkimus on toteutettu esimiestasolle suunnattuna lomakekyselynä lokakuussa 2003. Päätöksistä yleisimpiä olivat operatiivisen tason päätökset; taktisen ja strategisen tason päätöksiä tehtiin vähemmän. Päätöstilanteista useimmin kohdattuja olivat puolijäsentyneet ja jäsentyneet tilanteet, kun taas jäsentymättömät päätöstilanteet olivat harvinaisempia. Päätöksentekoprosesseista yleisimmin käytetty oli kirjallisuudessa taktiseen päätöstasoon ja puolijäsentyneisiin päätöstilanteisiin liitetty rajoitetun rationaalisuuden malliin perustuva vaiheittainen malli. Kirjallisuudessa strategiseen päätöksentekotasoon ja jäsentymättömiin päätöstilanteisiin liitetyn ns. iteratiivisesti vaiheittaisen mallin todettiin soveltuvan myös tämänkaltaiseen päätöksentekoon. Esimiehet pitivät toimintaympäristöään teollisuusyrityksessä pääasiallisesti orgaanisena. Tällaisessa ympäristössä vaikutussuhteet ja keinot ohjata ympäristöä perustuvat pitkälti vuorovaikutteisuuteen. Päätöksentekijöiden johtamistyylin todettiin olevan pikemminkin demokraattinen kuin autoritäärinen, mikä tukee edellä mainittuja tuloksia. Tiedon lähteistä päätöksenteon kannalta tärkeimpinä ja luotettavimpina koettiin henkilökohtaiset lähteet. Sisäiset lähteet nähtiin ulkoisia tärkeämpinä ja luotettavampina niin henkilökohtaisten, tekstimuotoisten kuin online-lähteidenkin osalta. Esimiesten todettiin hyödyntävän tosiasiatietoa, kokemusta ja intuitiota eri tavoin erilaisissa päätöstilanteissa, joten myös tehokkaat keinot tukea päätöksentekoa vaihtelevat päätöstyypeittäin. Tutkimuksen tulokset perustuvat kohderyhmän kyselylomakkeella kerättyihin mielipiteisiin. Käytetystä menetelmästä johtuen mielipiteiden taustatekijät ja todellinen toiminta organisaatiossa jäävät vielä avoimiksi. Tutkimustulosten syventäminen ja vahvistaminen sekä lisätiedon saaminen organisaation päätöksenteon todellisuudesta edellyttäisi empiiristä havainnointia tai vähintäänkin haastatteluja.

Secondhand tobacco smoke exposure in open and semi-open settings: a systematic review

Background: Some countries have recently extended smoke-free policies to particular outdoor settings; however, there is controversy regarding whether this is scientifically and ethically justifiable. Objectives: The objective of the present study was to review research on secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure in outdoor settings. Data sources: We conducted different searches in PubMed for the period prior to September 2012. We checked the references of the identified papers, and conducted a similar search in Google Scholar. Study selection: Our search terms included combinations of"secondhand smoke,""environmental tobacco smoke,""passive smoking" OR"tobacco smoke pollution" AND"outdoors" AND"PM" (particulate matter),"PM2.5" (PM with diameter ≤ 2.5 µm),"respirable suspended particles,""particulate matter,""nicotine,""CO" (carbon monoxide),"cotinine,""marker,""biomarker" OR"airborne marker." In total, 18 articles and reports met the inclusion criteria. Results: Almost all studies used PM2.5 concentration as an SHS marker. Mean PM2.5 concentrations reported for outdoor smoking areas when smokers were present ranged from 8.32 to 124 µg/m3 at hospitality venues, and 4.60 to 17.80 µg/m3 at other locations. Mean PM2.5 concentrations in smoke-free indoor settings near outdoor smoking areas ranged from 4 to 120.51 µg/m3. SHS levels increased when smokers were present, and outdoor and indoor SHS levels were related. Most studies reported a positive association between SHS measures and smoker density, enclosure of outdoor locations, wind conditions, and proximity to smokers. Conclusions: The available evidence indicates high SHS levels at some outdoor smoking areas and at adjacent smoke-free indoor areas. Further research and standardization of methodology is needed to determine whether smoke-free legislation should be extended to outdoor settings.

Organisatorinen oppiminen - tapaustutkimus oppimisprosessien jännitteistä teollisuusyrityksessä

Organisatorinen oppiminen nähdään avainasemassa yrityksen kilpailukyvyn kehittämisessä. Aihepiiristä onkin tehty runsaasti tutkimusta, mutta edelleen näkemykset organisaation oppimisesta, oppimisprosessin luonteesta, tuloksista ja näihin vaikuttavista tekijöistä ovat moninaiset. Dialektisuus kuvaa sekä organisatorisesta oppimisesta käytyä keskustelua että oppimisprosessien luonnetta dynaamisina vastavoimien sävyttäminä organisaation kehitysprosesseina. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on lisätä ymmärrystä organisatorisesta oppimisesta tutkimalla oppimisprosesseihin sisältyviä jännitteitä. Mielenkiinnon kohteena on jännitteiden osallistuminen niin innovatiivista uudistumista ja sopeutuvaa kehittymistä kuin toiminnan vakiinnuttamista tavoittelevaan oppimiseen. Tutkimuksen kohteena on kaksi teollisuusyritystä, joista tiedonkeruu tehtiin teemahaastatteluin. Tutkimuksessa painottui suorittavan tason työntekijän näkökulma. Empiirisestä aineistosta konstruoitiin organisatorisia oppimisprosesseja tulkitsemalla yksilöiden ja organisaation oppimisen välistä vuorovaikutusta. Yrityksittäin konstruoidut oppimisprosessit rinnastettiin yritysten tavoiterakenteen kautta ja analysoitiin jännitteiden osallistumista oppimisprosessien etenemiseen organisaatioissa. Organisatoriset oppimisprosessit - sekä organisaatiota uudistava innovatiivinen ja kehittävä sopeutuva oppiminen että vakiinnuttava mukautuva oppiminen - näyttäytyvät tutkimuksen tulosten valossa erilaisten jännitteiden sävyttäminä. Tulokset osoittavat, että perinteisessä mekaanisessa organisaatiossa aikaisempien tutkimusten luontaisena pitämä vakiinnuttava ja mukautuva oppiminen ei ole ongelmatonta ja itsestään sujuvaa. Myös se on jännitteiden sävyttämä. Organisaation viralliset ja sosiaaliset rakenteet voivat mukauttaa yksilöiden toiminnan. Vakiinnuttavan oppimisprosessin etenemiseen osallistuu kuitenkin jännitteitä, joita syntyy ennen kaikkea työntekijöiden toiminnan ja asenteiden sekä yrityksen tuotanto- ja oppimistavoitteiden välisistä ristiriidoista. Tulokset antavat aihetta pohtia vakiinnuttavan oppimisen asemaa suhteessa uudistavaan ja kehittävään oppimiseen. Vakiinnuttavan oppimisen toteutuminen organisaatiossa pelkästään rakenteiden mukauttavalla voimalla voi heikentää organisaation mahdollisuuksia kehittyä ja uudistua. Työntekijöiden toimimista organisaation oppimisen agentteina ja uudistavan oppimisen käynnistäjinä voisi edesauttaa oppimista tukevin organisatorisin mekanismein, jotka edistävät työntekijöiden käsitteellistä oppimista ja jännitteiden hyödyntämistä vakiinnuttavassa oppimisprosessissa.

Impact of round-the-clock CSF Gram stain on empirical therapy for suspected central nervous system infections.

The impact of round-the-clock cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Gram stain on overnight empirical therapy for suspected central nervous system (CNS) infections was investigated. All consecutive overnight CSF Gram stains between 2006 and 2011 were included. The impact of a positive or a negative test on empirical therapy was evaluated and compared to other clinical and biological indications based on institutional guidelines. Bacterial CNS infection was documented in 51/241 suspected cases. Overnight CSF Gram stain was positive in 24/51. Upon validation, there were two false-positive and one false-negative results. The sensitivity and specificity were 41 and 99 %, respectively. All patients but one had other indications for empirical therapy than Gram stain alone. Upon obtaining the Gram result, empirical therapy was modified in 7/24, including the addition of an appropriate agent (1), addition of unnecessary agents (3) and simplification of unnecessary combination therapy (3/11). Among 74 cases with a negative CSF Gram stain and without formal indication for empirical therapy, antibiotics were withheld in only 29. Round-the-clock CSF Gram stain had a low impact on overnight empirical therapy for suspected CNS infections and was associated with several misinterpretation errors. Clinicians showed little confidence in CSF direct examination for simplifying or withholding therapy before definite microbiological results.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

The long run impact of mergers and acquisitions on performance – empirical study in the pulp and paper industry

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have played very important role in restructuring the pulp and paper industry (PPI). The poor performance and fragmented nature of the industry, overcapacity problems, and globalisation have driven companies to consolidate. The objective of this thesis was to examine how PPI acquirers’ have performed subsequent M&As and whether the deal characteristics have had any impact on performance. Based on the results it seems that PPI companies have not been able to enhance their performance in the long run after M&As although the per-formance of acquiring firms has remained above the industry median, and deal characteristics or the amount of premiums paid do not seem to have had any effect. The statistical significance of the results was tested with change model and regression analysis. Performance was assessed with accrual, cash flow, and market based indicators. Results are congruent with behavioural theory: managers and investors seem to be overoptimistic in determining the synergies from M&As.

The empirical assessment of agency accountability: A regime approach and an application to the German Bundesnetzagentur

Regulation has in many cases been delegated to independent agencies, which has led to the question of how democratic accountability of these agencies is ensured. There are few empirical approaches to agency accountability. We offer such an approach, resting upon three propositions. First, we scrutinize agency accountability both de jure (accountability is ensured by formal rights of accountability 'fora' to receive information and impose consequences) and de facto (the capability of fora to use these rights depends on resources and decision costs that affect the credibility of their sanctioning capacity). Second, accountability must be evaluated separately at political, operational and managerial levels. And third, at each level accountability is enacted by a system of several (partially) interdependent fora, forming together an accountability regime. The proposed framework is applied to the case of the German Bundesnetzagentur's accountability regime, which shows its suitability for empirical purposes. Regulatory agencies are often considered as independent, yet accountable. This article provides a realistic framework for the study of accountability 'regimes' in which they are embedded. It emphasizes the need to identify the various actors (accountability fora) to which agencies are formally accountable (parliamentary committees, auditing bodies, courts, and so on) and to consider possible relationships between them. It argues that formal accountability 'on paper', as defined in official documents, does not fully account for de facto accountability, which depends on the resources possessed by the fora (mainly information-processing and decision-making capacities) and the credibility of their sanctioning capacities. The article applies this framework to the German Bundesnetzagentur.

Adjusting for the environment in DEA: a comparison of alternative models based on empirical data

Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. Four alternative models, each user-friendly and easily accessible to practitioners and decision makers, are performed using empirical data of 90 primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Results show that the majority of alternative models deliver divergent results. From a political and a managerial standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially ineffective decisions. As no consensus emerges on the best model to use, practitioners and decision makers may be tempted to select the model that is right for them, in other words, the model that best reflects their own preferences. Further studies should investigate how an appropriate multi-criteria decision analysis method could help decision makers to select the right model.

Differences in seasonal price patterns among second home rentals and hotels: Empirical evidence and practical implications

Hotels and second home rentals are two of the most important tourist accommodation options in Spain. In terms of seasonality, almost all previous studies have analysed tourism demand from the point of view either of total arrivals or the number of tourists lodged in a single accommodation type (hotels, rural accommodation, etc). However, there are no studies focusing on price seasonality orcomparing seasonality among different accommodation types. By using seasonality indicators and a price index constructed by means of hedonic methods, this paper aims to shed some light on seasonal pricing patterns among second home rentals and hotels. The paper relies on a 2004 database of 144 hotels and 1,002 apartments on the Costa Brava (northeast Spain). The results show that prices for second home rentals display a smoother seasonal pattern than hotels due to reduced price differences between shoulder (May and October) and peak periods (August)

The impact of inbound demand on price levels in tourism municipalities : Empirical evidence from Catalonia

It is usually argued that tourism exerts negative economic impacts in host jurisdictions through the increase in prices linked to increasing demand for basic services and goods from tourists. This paper surveys 149 products in 45 tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions in Catalonia (which represent a total of 18,500 prices) in order to test empirically several hypotheses related to differences in price levels in tourism and non-tourism jurisdictions. The main results show that prices in tourism jurisdictions are not significantly higher than those in non-tourism ones. The analysis suggests that tourists are likely to pay higher prices than natives for some products