Urban Growth Analysis Using Spatial and Temporal Data

Urban growth identification, quantification, knowledge of rate and the trends of growth would help in regional planning for better infrastructure provision in environmentally sound way. This requires analysis of spatial and temporal data, which help in quantifying the trends of growth on spatial scale. Emerging technologies such as Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) along with Global Positioning System (GPS) help in this regard. Remote sensing aids in the collection of temporal data and GIS helps in spatial analysis. This paper focuses on the analysis of urban growth pattern in the form of either radial or linear sprawl along the Bangalore - Mysore highway. Various GIS base layers such as builtup areas along the highway, road network, village boundary etc. were generated using collateral data such as the Survey of India toposheet, etc. Further, this analysis was complemented with the computation of Shannon's entropy, which helped in identifying prevalent sprawl zone, rate of growth and in delineating potential sprawl locations. The computation Shannon's entropy helped in delineating regions with dispersed and compact growth. This study reveals that the Bangalore North and South taluks contributed mainly to the sprawl with 559% increase in built-up area over a period of 28 years and high degree of dispersion. The Mysore and Srirangapatna region showed 128% change in built-up area and a high potential for sprawl with slightly high dispersion. The degree of sprawl was found to be directly proportional to the distances from the cities.

Steepest ascent tariff reform

The policy reform literature is primarily concerned with the construction of reforms that yield welfare gains. By contrast, this paper’s contribution is to develop a theoretical concept for which the focus is upon the sizes of welfare gains accruing from policy reforms rather than upon their signs. In undertaking this task, and by focusing on tariff reforms, we introduce the concept of a steepest ascent policy reform, which is a locally optimal reform in the sense that it achieves the highest marginal gain in utility of any feasible local reform. We argue that this reform presents itself as a natural benchmark for the evaluation of the welfare effectiveness of other popular tariff reforms such as the proportional tariff reduction and the concertina rules, since it provides the maximal welfare gain of all possible local reforms. We derive properties of the steepest ascent tariff reform, construct an index to measure the relative welfare effectiveness of any given tariff reform, determine conditions under which proportional and concertina reforms are locally optimal and provide illustrative examples.

Ecological consequences of genetic modifications - an invasion analysis approach

Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.

Entropy maximization

It is shown that (i) every probability density is the unique maximizer of relative entropy in an appropriate class and (ii) in the class of all pdf f that satisfy ae fh (i) d mu = lambda (i) for i = 1, 2, ...,... kthe maximizer of entropy is an f (0) that is proportional to exp(I c pound (i) h (i) ) for some choice of c (i) . An extension of this to a continuum of constraints and many examples are presented.

A semi-analytical particle filter for identification of nonlinear oscillators

Particle filters find important applications in the problems of state and parameter estimations of dynamical systems of engineering interest. Since a typical filtering algorithm involves Monte Carlo simulations of the process equations, sample variance of the estimator is inversely proportional to the number of particles. The sample variance may be reduced if one uses a Rao-Blackwell marginalization of states and performs analytical computations as much as possible. In this work, we propose a semi-analytical particle filter, requiring no Rao-Blackwell marginalization, for state and parameter estimations of nonlinear dynamical systems with additively Gaussian process/observation noises. Through local linearizations of the nonlinear drift fields in the process/observation equations via explicit Ito-Taylor expansions, the given nonlinear system is transformed into an ensemble of locally linearized systems. Using the most recent observation, conditionally Gaussian posterior density functions of the linearized systems are analytically obtained through the Kalman filter. This information is further exploited within the particle filter algorithm for obtaining samples from the optimal posterior density of the states. The potential of the method in state/parameter estimations is demonstrated through numerical illustrations for a few nonlinear oscillators. The proposed filter is found to yield estimates with reduced sample variance and improved accuracy vis-a-vis results from a form of sequential importance sampling filter.

Influence of surface chemistry of mesoporous alumina with wide pore distribution on controlled drug release

The crucial role of the drug carrier surface chemical moeities on the uptake and in vitro release of drug is discussed here in a systematic manner. Mesoporous alumina with a wide pore size distribution (2-7 nm) functionalized with various hydrophilic and hydrophobic surface chemical groups was employed as the carrier for delivery of the model drug ibuprofen. Surface functionalization with hydrophobic groups resulted in low degree of drug loading (approximately 20%) and fast rate of release (85% over a period of 5 h) whereas hydrophilic groups resulted in a significantly higher drug payloads (21%-45%) and slower rate of release (12%-40% over a period of 5 h). Depending on the chemical moiety, the diffusion controlled (proportional to time(-0.5)) drug release was additionally observed to be dependent on the mode of arrangement of the functional groups on the alumina surface as well as on the pore characteristics of the matrix. For all mesoporous alumina systems the drug dosages were far lower than the maximum recommended therapeutic dosages (MRTD) for oral delivery. We envisage that the present study would aid in the design of delivery systems capable of sustained release of multiple drugs.

Relative electrical distance concept for evaluation of network reactive power and loss contributions in a deregulated system

With the liberalisation of electricity market it has become very important to determine the participants making use of the transmission network.Transmission line usage computation requires information of generator to load contributions and the path used by various generators to meet loads and losses. In this study relative electrical distance (RED) concept is used to compute reactive power contributions from various sources like generators, switchable volt-amperes reactive(VAR) sources and line charging susceptances that are scattered throughout the network, to meet the system demands. The transmission line charge susceptances contribution to the system reactive flows and its aid extended in reducing the reactive generation at the generator buses are discussed in this paper. Reactive power transmission cost evaluation is carried out in this study. The proposed approach is also compared with other approaches viz.,proportional sharing and modified Y-bus.Detailed case studies with base case and optimised results are carried out on a sample 8-bus system. IEEE 39-bus system and a practical 72-bus system, an equivalent of Indian Southern grid are also considered for illustration and results are discussed.

Comparison of the Radar and Seeker Modes of Pursuer Guidance

This paper compares closed-loop performance of seeker-based and radar-based estimators for surface-to-air interception through 6-degree-of-freedom simulation using proportional navigation guidance.Ground radar measurements are evader range, azimuth and elevation angles contaminated by Gaussian noise. Onboard seeker measurements are pursuer-evader relative range, range rate also contaminated by Gaussian noise. The gimbal angles and line-of-sight rates in the gimbal frame,contaminated by time-correlated non-Gaussian noise with realistic numerical values are also available as measurements. In both the applications, extended Kalman filter with Gaussian noise assumption are used for state estimation. For a typical engagement, it is found that,based on Monte Carlo studies, seeker estimator outperforms radar estimator in terms of autopilot demand and reduces the miss distance.Thus, a seeker estimator with white Gaussian assumption is found to be adequate to handle the measurements even in the presence of non-Gaussian correlated noise. This paper uses realistic numerical values of all noise parameters.

Adiabatic quantum computation with a one-dimensional projector Hamiltonian

Adiabatic quantum computation is based on the adiabatic evolution of quantum systems. We analyze a particular class of quantum adiabatic evolutions where either the initial or final Hamiltonian is a one-dimensional projector Hamiltonian on the corresponding ground state. The minimum-energy gap, which governs the time required for a successful evolution, is shown to be proportional to the overlap of the ground states of the initial and final Hamiltonians. We show that such evolutions exhibit a rapid crossover as the ground state changes abruptly near the transition point where the energy gap is minimum. Furthermore, a faster evolution can be obtained by performing a partial adiabatic evolution within a narrow interval around the transition point. These results generalize and quantify earlier works.

Hormone therapy in elderly women; a comparative study with alendronate of the effects on bone, cardiovascular risk factors, periodontal conditions and quality of life

Thirty percent of 70-year-old women have osteoporosis; after age of 80 its prevalence is up to 70%. Postmenopausal women with osteoporosis seem to be at an increased risk for cardiovascular events, and deterioration of oral health, as shown by attachment loss of teeth, which is proportional to the severity of osteoporosis. Osteoporosis can be treated with many different medication, e.g. estrogen and alendronate. We randomized 90 elderly osteoporotic women (65-80 years of age) to receive hormone therapy (HT)(2mg E2+NETA), 10mg alendronate, and their combination for two years and compared their effects on bone mineral density (BMD) and turnover, two surrogate markers of the risk of cardiovascular diseases, C-reactive protein (CRP) and E-selectin, as well as oral health. The effect of HT on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was studied in the population-based cohort of 1663 postmenopausal women (mean age 68 yr) (585 estrogen users and 1078 non-users). BMD was measured with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at 0, 12 and 24 months. Urinary N-telopeptide (NTX) of type I collagen, a marker of bone resorption, and serum aminoterminal propeptide of human type I procollagen (PINP), a marker of bone formation, were measured every six months of treatment. Serum CRP and E-selectin, were measured at 0, 6, and 12 months. Dental, and periodontal conditions, and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF) matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-8 levels were studied to evaluate the oral health status and for the mouth symptoms a structured questionnaire was used. The HRQoL was measured with 15D questionnaire. Lumbar spine BMD increased similarly in all treatment groups (6.8-8.4% and 9.1-11.2%). Only HT increased femoral neck BMD at both 12 (4.9%) and 24 months (5.8%), at the latter time point the HT group differed significantly from the other groups. HT reduced bone marker levels of NTX and PINP significantly less than other two groups.Oral HT significantly increased serum CRP level by 76.5% at 6 and by 47.1% (NS) at 12 months, and decreased serum E-selectin level by 24.3% and 30.0%. Alendronate had no effect on these surrogate markers. Alendronate caused a decrease in the resting salivary flow rate and tended to increase GCF MMP-8 levels. Otherwise, there was no effect on the parameters of oral health. HT improved the HRQoL of elderly women significantly on the dimensions of usual activities, vitality and sexual activity, but the overall improvement in HRQoL was neither statistically significant nor clinically important. In conclusion, bisphosphonates might be the first option to start the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis in the old age.

A numerical study of the effect of loading conditions on tubular hydroforming

In this work, the mechanics of tubular hydroforming under various types of loading conditions is investigated. The main objective is to contrast the effects of prescribing fluid pressure or volume flow rate, in conjunction with axial displacement, on the stress and strain histories experienced by the tube and the process of bulging. To this end, axisymmetric finite element simulations of free hydroforming (without external die contact) of aluminium alloy tubes are carried out. Hill’s normally anisotropic yield theory along with material properties determined in a previous experimental study [A. Kulkarni, P. Biswas, R. Narasimhan, A. Luo, T. Stoughton, R. Mishra, A.K. Sachdev, An experimental and numerical study of necking initiation in aluminium alloy tubes during hydroforming, Int. J. Mech. Sci. 46 (2004) 1727–1746] are employed in the computations. It is found that while prescribed fluid pressure leads to highly non-proportional strain paths, specified fluid volume flow rate may result in almost proportional ones for the predominant portion of loading. The peak pressure increases with axial compression for the former, while the reverse trend applies under the latter. The implication of these results on failure by localized necking of the tube wall is addressed in a subsequent investigation.

Helicobacter pylori: resistance and treatment results in Finland

Background: Helicobacter pylori infection is usually acquired in early childhood and is rarely resolved spontaneously. Eradication therapy is currently recommended virtually to all patients. While the first and second therapies are prescribed without knowing the antibiotic resistance of the bacteria, it is important to know the primary resistance in the population. Aim: This study evaluates the primary resistance of H. pylori among patients in primary health care throughout Finland, the efficacy of three eradication regimens, the symptomatic response to successful therapy, and the effect of smoking on gastric histology and humoral response in H. pylori-positive patients. Patients and methods: A total of 23 endoscopy referral centres located throughout Finland recruited 342 adult patients with positive rapid urease test results, who were referred to upper gastrointestinal endoscopy from primary health care. Gastric histology, H. pylori resistance and H. pylori serology were evaluated. The patients were randomized to receive a seven-day regimen, comprising 1) lansoprazole 30 mg b.d., amoxicillin 1 g b.d. and metronidazole 400 mg t.d. (LAM), 2) lansoprazole 30 mg b.d., amoxicillin 1 g b.d. and clarithromycin 500 mg b.d. (LAC) or 3) ranitidine bismuth citrate 400 mg b.d., metronidazole 400 mg t.d. and tetracycline 500 mg q.d. (RMT). The eradication results were assessed, using the 13C-urea breath test 4 weeks after therapy. The patients completed a symptom questionnaire before and a year after the therapy. Results: Primary resistance of H. pylori to metronidazole was 48% among women and 25% among men. In women, metronidazole resistance correlated with previous use of antibiotics for gynaecologic infections and alcohol consumption. Resistance rate to clarithromycin was only 2%. Intention-to-treat cure rates of LAM, LAC, and RMT were 78%, 91% and 81%. While in metronidazole-sensitive cases the cure rates with LAM, LAC and RMT were similar, in metronidazole resistance LAM and RMT were inferior to LAC (53%, 67% and 84%). Previous antibiotic therapies reduced the efficacy of LAC, to the level of RMT. Dyspeptic symptoms in the Gastrointestinal Symptoms Rating Scale (GSRS) were decreased by 30.5%. In logistic regression analysis, duodenal ulcer, gastric antral neutrophilic inflammation and age from 50 to 59 years independently predicted greater decrease in dyspeptic symptoms. In the gastric body, smokers had milder inflammation and less atrophy and in the antrum denser H. pylori load. Smokers also had lower IgG antibody titres against H. pylori and a smaller proportional decrease in antibodies after successful eradication. Smoking tripled the risk of duodenal ulcers. Conclusions: in Finland H. pylori resistance to clarithromycin is low, but metronidazole resistance among women is high making metronidazole-based therapies unfavourable. Thus, LAC is the best choice for first-line eradication therapy. The effect of eradication on dyspeptic symptoms was only modest. Smoking slows the progression of atrophy in the gastric body.

Thrombophilia and direct thrombin inhibitor lepirudin clinical and monitoring aspects

Thrombophilia (TF) predisposes both to venous and arterial thrombosis at a young age. TF may also impact the thrombosis or stenosis of hemodialysis (HD) vascular access in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). When involved in severe thrombosis TF may associate with inappropriate response to anticoagulation. Lepirudin, a potent direct thrombin inhibitor (DTI), indicated for heparin-induced thrombocytopenia-related thrombosis, could offer a treatment alternative in TF. Monitoring of narrow-ranged lepirudin demands new insights also in laboratory. The above issues constitute the targets in this thesis. We evaluated the prevalence of TF in patients with ESRD and its impact upon thrombosis- or stenosis-free survival of the vascular access. Altogether 237 ESRD patients were prospectively screened for TF and thrombogenic risk factors prior to HD access surgery in 2002-2004 (mean follow-up of 3.6 years). TF was evident in 43 (18%) of the ESRD patients, more often in males (23 vs. 9%, p=0.009). Known gene mutations of FV Leiden and FII G20210A occurred in 4%. Vascular access sufficiently matured in 226 (95%). The 1-year thrombosis- and stenosis-free access survival was 72%. Female gender (hazards ratio, HR, 2.5; 95% CI 1.6-3.9) and TF (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.3) were independent risk factors for the shortened thrombosis- and stenosis-free survival. Additionally, TF or thrombogenic background was found in relatively young patients having severe thrombosis either in hepatic veins (Budd-Chiari syndrome, BCS, one patient) or inoperable critical limb ischemia (CLI, six patients). Lepirudin was evaluated in an off-label setting in the severe thrombosis after inefficacious traditional anticoagulation without other treatment options except severe invasive procedures, such as lower extremity amputation. Lepirudin treatments were repeatedly monitored clinically and with laboratory assessments (e.g. activated partial thromboplastin time, APTT). Our preliminary studies with lepirudin in thrombotic calamities appeared safe, and no bleeds occurred. An effective DTI lepirudin calmed thrombosis as all patients gradually recovered. Only one limb amputation was performed 3 years later during the follow-up (mean 4 years). Furthermore, we aimed to overcome the limitations of APTT and confounding effects of warfarin (INR of 1.5-3.9) and lupus anticoagulant (LA). Lepirudin responses were assessed in vitro by five specific laboratory methods. Ecarin chromogenic assay (ECA) or anti-Factor IIa (anti-FIIa) correlated precisely (r=0.99) with each other and with spiked lepirudin in all plasma pools: normal, warfarin, and LA-containing plasma. In contrast, in the presence of warfarin and LA both APTT and prothrombinase-induced clotting time (PiCT®) were limited by non-linear and imprecise dose responses. As a global coagulation test APTT is useful in parallel to the precise chromogenic methods ECA or Anti-FIIa in challenging clinical situations. Lepirudin treatment requires multidisciplinary approach to ensure appropriate patient selection, interpretation of laboratory monitoring, and treatment safety. TF seemed to be associated with complicated thrombotic events, in venous (BCS), arterial (CLI), and vascular access systems. TF screening should be aimed to patients with repeated access complications or prior unprovoked thromboembolic events. Lepirudin inhibits free and clot-bound thrombin which heparin fails to inhibit. Lepirudin seems to offer a potent and safe option for treatment of severe thrombosis. Multi-centered randomized trials are necessary to assess the possible management of complicated thrombotic events with DTIs like lepirudin and seek prevention options against access complications.

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives In China, “serious road traffic crashes” (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10-30 fatalities, 50-100 serious injuries or a total cost of 50-100 million RMB ($US8-16m), and “particularly serious road traffic crashes” (PSRTCs) are those which are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become great concerns to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number. Methods 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth Investigation and Analysis System for Major Road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors. Results Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3% and 32.6% of accidents respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road-related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure, and slippery roads due to rain, snow or ice. Conclusions The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole, to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating of a driver training program and publicisation of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings and vehicle-mounted GPS are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff, and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure, and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.

Mapping of Average Shear Wave Velocity for Bangalore Region: A Case Study

Mapping the shear wave velocity profile is an important part in seismic hazard and microzonation studies. The shear wave velocity of soil in the city of Bangalore was mapped using the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) technique. An empirical relationship was found between the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) corrected N value ((N1)60cs) and measured shear wave velocity (Vs). The survey points were selected in such a way that the results represent the entire Bangalore region, covering an area of 220 km2. Fifty-eight 1-D and 20 2-D MASW surveys were performed and their velocity profiles determined. The average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soils was evaluated for depths of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, 20 m, 25 m and 30 m. The sub-soil classification was made for seismic local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30-m depth (Vs30) of sites using the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and International Building Code (IBC) classification. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW closely matches with the soil layers identified in SPT bore holes. Estimation of local site effects for an earthquake requires knowledge of the dynamic properties of soil, which is usually expressed in terms of shear wave velocity. Hence, to make use of abundant SPT data available on many geotechnical projects in Bangalore, an attempt was made to develop a relationship between Vs (m/s) and (N1)60cs. The measured shear wave velocity at 38 locations close to SPT boreholes was used to generate the correlation between the corrected N values and shear wave velocity. A power fit model correlation was developed with a regression coefficient (R2) of 0.84. This relationship between shear wave velocity and corrected SPT N values correlates well with the Japan Road Association equations.