Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Shared autonomy for close-quarters navigation and control of a VTOL platform

This thesis presents an approach for a vertical infrastructure inspection using a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) unmanned aerial vehicle and shared autonomy. Inspecting vertical structure such as light and power distribution poles is a difficult task. There are challenges involved with developing such an inspection system, such as flying in close proximity to a target while maintaining a fixed stand-off distance from it. The contributions of this thesis fall into three main areas. Firstly, an approach to vehicle dynamic modeling is evaluated in simulation and experiments. Secondly, EKF-based state estimators are demonstrated, as well as estimator-free approaches such as image based visual servoing (IBVS) validated with motion capture ground truth data. Thirdly, an integrated pole inspection system comprising a VTOL platform with human-in-the-loop control, (shared autonomy) is demonstrated. These contributions are comprehensively explained through a series of published papers.

Trait resilience fosters adaptive coping when control opportunities are high : implications for the motivating potential of active work

Purpose: We examine the interaction between trait resilience and control in predicting coping and performance. Drawing on a person–environment fit perspective, we hypothesized resilient individuals would cope and perform better in demanding work situations when control was high. In contrast, those low in resilience would cope and perform better when control was low. Recognizing the relationship between trait resilience and performance also could be indirect, adaptive coping was examined as a mediating mechanism through which high control enables resilient individuals to demonstrate better performance. Methodology: In Study 1 (N = 78) and Study 2 (N = 94), participants completed a demanding inbox task in which trait resilience was measured and high and low control was manipulated. Study 3 involved surveying 368 employees on their trait resilience, control, and demand at work (at Time 1), and coping and performance 1 month later at Time 2. Findings: For more resilient individuals, high control facilitated problem-focused coping (Study 1, 2, and 3), which was indirectly associated with higher subjective performance (Study 1), mastery (Study 2), adaptive, and proficient performance (Study 3). For more resilient individuals, high control also facilitated positive reappraisal (Study 2 and 3), which was indirectly associated with higher adaptive and proficient performance (Study 3). Implications: Individuals higher in resilience benefit from high control because it enables adaptive coping. Originality/value: This research makes two contributions: (1) an experimental investigation into the interaction of trait resilience and control, and (2) investigation of coping as the mechanism explaining better performance.

Investigating the link between transit oriented development and sustainable travel behavior in Brisbane : a case-control study

The purpose of this research is to empirically test the prevailing view that transit oriented development enhances the use of more sustainable modes of transport using Brisbane, Australia as a case. Transit oriented development has been adopted as a new policy tool to reduce car-based travel worldwide. Despite being a billion dollar investment, the impacts of transit oriented development on promoting sustainable travel behavior is not conclusive. The research uses a case-control approach to empirically investigate this relationship based on travel behavior data collected from 88 individuals living in two contrasting neighborhoods in Brisbane: Kelvin Grove Urban Village – a transit oriented development, and Annerley – a traditional suburb (non-transit oriented development). A comparative investigation of travel behavior was subsequently conducted using distance travelled by modes and purposes between the neighborhoods. Results show that the availability of opportunity and services located within the transit oriented development reduces the car use by 5% and increases the use of active transport by 4%. The findings in this research support the implementation of TOD policies in Brisbane.

Stepping accuracy and visuomotor control among older adults : effect of target contrast and refractive blur

Purpose: Older adults have increased visual impairment, including refractive blur from presbyopic multifocal spectacle corrections, and are less able to extract visual information from the environment to plan and execute appropriate stepping actions; these factors may collectively contribute to their higher risk of falls. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of refractive blur and target visibility on the stepping accuracy and visuomotor stepping strategies of older adults during a precision stepping task. Methods: Ten healthy, visually normal older adults (mean age 69.4 ± 5.2 years) walked up and down a 20 m indoor corridor stepping onto selected high and low-contrast targets while viewing under three visual conditions: best-corrected vision, +2.00 DS and +3.00 DS blur; the order of blur conditions was randomised between participants. Stepping accuracy and gaze behaviours were recorded using an eyetracker and a secondary hand-held camera. Results: Older adults made significantly more stepping errors with increasing levels of blur, particularly exhibiting under-stepping (stepping more posteriorly) onto the targets (p<0.05), while visuomotor stepping strategies did not significantly alter. Stepping errors were also significantly greater for the low compared to the high contrast targets and differences in visuomotor stepping strategies were found, including increased duration of gaze and increased interval between gaze onset and initiation of the leg swing when stepping onto the low contrast targets. Conclusions: These findings highlight that stepping accuracy is reduced for low visibility targets, and for high levels of refractive blur at levels typically present in multifocal spectacle corrections, despite significant changes in some of the visuomotor stepping strategies. These findings highlight the importance of maximising the contrast of objects in the environment, and may help explain why older adults wearing multifocal spectacle corrections exhibit an increased risk of falling.

Frequency-motivated observer design for the prediction of parametric roll resonance control applications in marine systems

This work deals with estimators for predicting when parametric roll resonance is going to occur in surface vessels. The roll angle of the vessel is modeled as a second-order linear oscillatory system with unknown parameters. Several algorithms are used to estimate the parameters and eigenvalues of the system based on data gathered experimentally on a 1:45 scale model of a tanker. Based on the estimated eigenvalues, the system predicts whether or not parametric roll occurred. A prediction accuracy of 100% is achieved for regular waves, and up to 87.5% for irregular waves.

Stochastic output feedback model predictive control

This paper addresses the issue of output feedback model predictive control for linear systems with input constraints and stochastic disturbances. We show that the optimal policy uses the Kalman filter for state estimation, but the resultant state estimates are not utilized in a certainty equivalence control law

Influence of semiconducting properties of nanoparticle coating on the electrochemical actuation of liquid metal marble

Semiconducting properties of nanoparticle coating on liquid metal marbles can present opportunities for an additional dimension of control on these soft objects with functional surfaces in aqueous environments. We show the unique differences in the electrochemical actuation mechanisms of liquid metal marbles with n- and p-type semiconducting nanomaterial coating. A systematic study on such liquid metal marbles shows voltage dependent nanoparticle cluster formation and morphological changes of the liquid metal core during electrochemical actuations and these observations are unique to p-type nanomaterial coated liquid metal marbles.