946 resultados para Logical Inference


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Regional metamorphic belts provide important constraints on the plate tectonic architecture of orogens. We report here a detailed petrologic examination of the sapphirine-bearing ultra-high temperature (UHT) granulites from the Jining Complex within the Khondalite Belt of the North China Craton (NCC). These granulites carry diagnostic UHT assemblages and their microstructures provide robust evidence to trace the prograde, peak and retrograde metamorphic evolution. The P–T conditions of the granulites estimated from XMgGrt(Mg/Fe + Mg) − XMgSpr isopleth calculations indicate temperature above 970 °C and pressures close to 7 kbar. We present phase diagrams based on thermodynamic computations to evaluate the mineral assemblages and microstructures and trace the metamorphic trajectory of the rocks. The evolution from Spl–Qtz–Ilm–Crd–Grt–Sil to Spr–Qtz–Crd–Opx–Ilm marks the prograde stage. The Spl–Qtz assemblage appears on the low-pressure side of the P–T space with Spr–Qtz stable at the high-pressure side, possibly representing an increase in pressure corresponding to compression. The spectacular development of sapphirine rims around spinel enclosed in quartz supports this inference. An evaluation of the key UHT assemblages based on model proportion calculation suggests a counterclockwise P–T path. With few exceptions, granulite-facies rocks developed along collisional metamorphic zones have generally been characterized by clockwise exhumation trajectories. Recent evaluation of the P–T paths of metamorphic rocks developed within collisional orogens indicates that in many cases the exhumation trajectories follow the model subduction geotherm, in accordance with a tectonic model in which the metamorphic rocks are subducted and exhumed along a plate boundary. The timing of UHT metamorphism in the NCC (c. 1.92 Ga) coincides with the assembly of the NCC within the Paleoproterozoic Columbia supercontinent, a process that would have involved subduction of passive margins sediments and closure of the intervening ocean. Thus, the counterclockwise P–T path obtained in this study correlates well with a tectonic model involving subduction and final collisional suturing, with the UHT granulites representing the core of the hot or ultra-hot orogen developed during Columbia amalgamation.

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The development of botanical Finnish: Elias Lönnrot as the creator of new terminology In the 19th century the Finnish language was intentionally developed to meet the demands of civilised society and Finnish-language science. The development of the language involved several people from different fields of science. This study examines this enormous project in the field of botany. By which methods were scientific terms formed, and for which reasons were those terms used? Why has a certain word been chosen to represent a particular concept? The material of this study is the terminology of plant morphology in Finnish that Elias Lönnrot developed in the middle of the 19th century. The terms of plant morphology denote and describe the parts of the plant and the relationships between those parts. For instance, the terms emi pistill , hede stamen , terälehti petal and verholehti sepal , which are nowadays familiar in the general language, were used for the first time in Lönnrot s texts. The study integrates the methods of lexicology and terminology. In lexicology, the word and its various meanings serve as the focus, whereas the theory of terminology focuses on the concept and concept systems. A new, consciously developed terminology can be understood through the old, familiar vocabulary and structures as well as through the new, logical term system. Lönnrot s botanical terminology can be divided into three groups depending on their origin: 1) 19% of all terms have been accepted from the existing vocabulary and used in their original meanings, 2) 11% of all terms have been chosen from the existing vocabulary and used in the new, specific botanical meanings, and 3) 70% of all terms have been created on the basis of the existing vocabulary and used in the new, specific botanical meanings. Therefore, the study reveals that domestic materials primarily morphosemantic neologisms form the Finnish terminology of plant morphology. Characteristic of Lönnrot s botanical terms is the utilisation of the vocabulary of various Finnish dialects and particular repeating elements. Repeating elements include, for example, the prefixes that come from botanical Latin or Swedish as well as the particular Finnish derivation types. Such structures form term systems that reflect scientific concept systems. Two thirds of the created new words are formed loosely or precisely according to either Latin or Swedish terms; one third is formed completely differently from its equivalents in the foreign languages. Approximately half of the chosen terms are formed differently from the Latin and Swedish terms. It is worth noting that many loan translations use rare vocabulary from Finnish dialects as equivalents to foreign parts of terms. Lönnrot aimed to inspire scientific terminology with Finland s own language, thus making scientific text accessible to the Finnish agricultural population.

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Between-subject and within-subject variability is ubiquitous in biology and physiology and understanding and dealing with this is one of the biggest challenges in medicine. At the same time it is difficult to investigate this variability by experiments alone. A recent modelling and simulation approach, known as population of models (POM), allows this exploration to take place by building a mathematical model consisting of multiple parameter sets calibrated against experimental data. However, finding such sets within a high-dimensional parameter space of complex electrophysiological models is computationally challenging. By placing the POM approach within a statistical framework, we develop a novel and efficient algorithm based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We compare the SMC approach with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a method commonly adopted in the literature for obtaining the POM, in terms of efficiency and output variability in the presence of a drug block through an in-depth investigation via the Beeler-Reuter cardiac electrophysiological model. We show improved efficiency via SMC and that it produces similar responses to LHS when making out-of-sample predictions in the presence of a simulated drug block.

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Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

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Weed management is one of the most important economic and agronomic issues facing farmers in Australia's grain regions. Weed species occurrence and abundance was monitored between 1997 and 2000 on 46 paddocks (sites) across 18 commercial farms located in the Northern Grain Region. The sites generally fell within 4 disjunct regions, from south to north: Liverpool Plains, Moree, Goondiwindi and Kingaroy. While high species richness was found (139 species or species groups), only 8 species occurred in all 4 regions and many (56 species) only occurred at 1 site or region. No species were observed at every site but 7 species (Sonchus spp., Avena spp., Conyza spp., Echinochloa spp., Convolvulus erubescens, Phalaris spp. and Lactuca serriola) were recorded on more than 70% of sites. The average number of species observed within crops after treatment and before harvest was less than 13. Species richness tended to be higher in winter pulse crops, cotton and in fallows, but overall was similar at the different sampling seasons (summer v. winter). Separate species assemblages associated with the Goondiwindi and Kingaroy regions were identified by correspondence analysis but these appeared to form no logical functional group. The species richness and density was generally low, demonstrating that farmers are managing weed populations effectively in both summer and winter cropping phases. Despite the apparent adoption of conservation tillage, an increase in opportunity cropping and the diversity of crops grown (13) there was no obvious effect of management practices on weed species richness or relative abundance. Avena spp. and Sonchus spp. were 2 of the most dominant weeds, particularly in central and southern latitudes of the region; Amaranthus spp. and Raphanus raphanistrum were the most abundant species in the northern part of the region. The ubiquity of these and other species shows that continued vigilance is required to suppress weeds as a management issue.

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Purpose – Psychological and epidemiological literature suggests that the built environment plays both causal and therapeutic roles in schizophrenia, but what are the implications for designers? The purpose of this paper is to focus on the role the built environment plays in psycho‐environmental dynamics, in order that negative effects can be avoided and beneficial effects emphasised in architectural design. Design/methodology/approach – The approach taken is a translational exploration of the dynamics between the built environment and psychotic illness, using primary research from disciplines as diverse as epidemiology, neurology and psychology. Findings – The built environment is conceived as being both an agonist and as an antagonist for the underlying processes that present as psychosis. The built environment is implicated through several means, through the opportunities it provides. These may be physical, narrative, emotional, hedonic or personal. Some opportunities may be negative, and others positive. The built environment is also an important source of unexpected aesthetic stimulation, yet in psychotic illnesses, aesthetic sensibilities characteristically suffer from deterioration. Research limitations/implications – The findings presented are based on research that is largely translated from very different fields of enquiry. Whilst findings are cogent and logical, much of the support is correlational rather than empirical. Social implications – The WHO claims that schizophrenia destroys 24 million lives worldwide, with an exponential effect on human and financial capital. Because evidence implicates the built environment, architectural and urban designers may have a role to play in reducing the human costs wrought by the illness. Originality/value – Never before has architecture been so explicitly implicated as a cause of mental illness. This paper was presented to the Symposium of Mental Health Facility Design, and is essential reading for anyone involved in designing for improved mental health.

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In the case of an ac cable, power transmission is limited by the length of the cable due to the capacitive reactive current component. It is well known that high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables do not have such limitations. However, insulation-related thermal problems pose a limitation on the power capability of HVDC cables. The author presents a viable theoretical development, a logical extension to Whitehead's theory on thermal limitations of the insulation. The computation of the maximum power-carrying capability of HVDC cables subject to limits on the maximum operable temperature of the insulation is presented. The limitation on the power-carrying capability is closely associated with the electrothermal insulation failure. The effect of environmental interaction by way of external thermal resistance, an important aspect, is also considered in the formulations. The Lagrange multiplier method has been used to handle the ensuing optimization problem. The theory is based on an accepted theory of thermal breakdown in insulation and is an important and a coherent extension of great significance.

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The purpose of the study was to develop a functional web-based learning material for the learning of the nålbinding technique. The study of the research topic was already begun in my pedagogical thesis in 2008 by considering the demands on pedagogic material for the teaching of the technique. This study falls into the field of qualitative design research which was carried out through three stages. In the study three methods of usability testing, i.e. expert analysis, the informants’ thinking aloud and interviews, were used as research methods. At the first stage of the study the first version of the learning material was created. This was done on the basis of theoretical knowledge, the demands set on learning materials as clarified in previous studies, on the basis of previously created learning materials for the learning of the nålbinding technique as well as with the help of two experts on the technique. At the second stage, the learning material was developed on the basis of expert analysis and another version of the material was created. At the third stage, usability testing was carried out on the material. At this stage two informants used the material, practiced stitching with the nålbinding needle and thought aloud while doing so. In the usability testing the Morae –programme was used to record the events on the screen, the actions of the informants and their spoken out thoughts. The Morae –programme was also used when analysing the recordings. After the testing, the informants practised stitching independently and in a few weeks time they were interviewed. The interviews were aimed at finding out the informants’ opinions on the future development of the material. On the basis of the informants’ independent attempts at using the nålbinding technique, the development of their skills after the testing was also discussed at the interviews. The development of the learning material will continue after this study on the basis of the usability testing and the interviews. The web-based learning material was created for the website Käspaikka in the address www.kaspaikka.fi/kinnasneula. By creating a multimodal learning material the dual-coding theory by Paivio was taken into consideration. According to the theory, several methods of presentation help a learner to restore information in his/her memory. The independent construction of the learner’s knowledge, i.e. learning according to the principles of the constructivist learning theory, was also supported by creating a logical navigation system, by linking interrelated topics to one another and by presenting the topics in several different forms. In the test situations the learning material was judged to work well when practising stitching with the nålbinding needle. Both informants learned the basics of the nålbinding technique even though their respective learning strategies were quite different. In the usability testing illogicalities and shortcomings were still noticed in the learning material which will still be further developed in the future.

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Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

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The aim of the present research was to examine the validity of the RAND-36 measure of health-related quality of life among the working age rehabilitation clients. The research included two cross-sectional studies and one follow-up study. The subjects of the first study (n = 794) participated in the first period of the five following types of rehabilitation: occupationally oriented medical rehabilitation, musculoskeletal rehabilitation, medical rehabilitation for job burnout, rehabilitation for supporting the work ability and capacity of disabled subjects (vocational rehabilitation) and individualized rehabilitation between October 2000 and October 2001. The subjects of the second study (n = 990) participated in the same rehabilitation during their first rehabilitation period between May 2007 and May 2008. The first subjects participated in a follow-up period no later than May 2003 with the exception of the individual rehabilitation clients (n = 588). Based on the ICF classification, the RAND-36 provides a diverse measure of the health-related quality of life and of the capacity for subjective, perceived physical and psycho-social functioning. The construct properties of the RAND-36 measure proved to be very consistent on the basis of both the cluster and confirmatory factor analyses. At the group level, the RAND-36 measure was shown to be illustrative and sensitive in differentiating the clients’ rehabilitation needs. The results of cluster analyses with the two cross-sectional data indicated a consistent five-cluster solution of rehabilitation groups on the basis of the eight subscales of health-related quality of life. Each of these clusters represented a clear difference in their need for rehabilitation. The RAND-36 measure proved to be sensitive to change. The changes observed in the pre- and post-conditions in relation to all the subscales of quality of life were statistically significant. Depending on the rehabilitation type, different changes in the subscales of the measure were observed, and these changes corresponded to the different emphasis and goals of the specific type of rehabilitation intervention. Similarly, changes in the subscales of the measure were observed in relation to the RAND groups formed by cluster analysis, which were logical and corresponded to the problem profiles of these groups. The confirmatory factor analysis indicated a two-factor solution: an index of the capacity for physical functioning (self-rated general health, bodily pain, physical functioning, physical role functioning) and an index of the capacity for psycho-social functioning (psychological well-being, social functioning, psychological role functioning and energy). These two indices describing functional capacity proved also to be sensitive to change. This two-factor solution seems to be usable for group level analyses when assessing the effects of rehabilitation. The moderately strong correlation between the RAND-36 and work ability index suggests that they partly measure the same phenomenon: perceived health-related quality of life, subjective capacity for activity and perceived work ability have strong links. As expected, the capacity for physical functioning had a stronger correlation with work ability index than with the capacity for psycho-social functioning. According to the present research, the RAND-36 measure can be considered as a screening method for rehabilitation orientation in relation to rehabilitation needs and as a follow-up measure for the health-related quality of life among the working age clients. The RAND-36 measure is also shown to be a useful instrument in estimating the benefits of rehabilitation as well as in effectiveness research.

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In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

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Preputial prolapse is an obvious condition affecting bulls from many breeds. Unfortunately, the losses in production and welfare concerns associated with preputial prolapse can remain undetected for long periods of time in the extensive beef areas of northern Australia where the bulls are not inspected regularly. Thus, there is a critical need to identify the structural factors predisposing to preputial prolapse in young bulls so that they can be culled early. Despite there being no firm scientific evidence of an association between preputial eversion and preputial prolapse, it seems logical that the increased exposure of the sensitive prepuce as a consequence of preputial eversion may increase the risk of bulls developing preputial pathology, in particular preputial prolapse. This may be particularly relevant in Bos indicus bulls as they have a more pendulous sheath and thus eversion of the prepuce may be associated with a greater risk of injury to the prepuce compared to that in Bos taurus bulls. Further, studies of preputial eversion in Bos taurus bulls have concluded that there is an association between polledness and increased prevalence and severity (length of everted prepuce and duration of eversion) of preputial eversion due primarily to the absence or poor development of the caudal preputial muscles. No similar definitive work in Bos indicus bulls has been conducted and thus anatomical studies reported in this thesis were conducted to determine if a similar association occurred in Bos indicus bulls. A survey of a sample of large beef breeding herds in northern Australia found that preputial prolapse is a significant problem in Bos indicus and Bos indicus derived bulls and affected both young and older bulls. The importance of preputial prolapse confirmed the value of further research into the causes of this problem. A series of anatomical studies confirmed that preputial eversion in Bos indicus derived bulls was not more prevalent in polled bulls than horned bulls and was not associated with deficiency of the caudal preputial muscles as was established in Bos taurus bulls. An anatomical study of Bos indicus derived bulls with preputial prolapse found that preputial prolapse occurred in horned bulls of varying ages and these bulls did not have any evidence of deficiency in the caudal preputial muscles. However, preputial prolapse was observed in young polled bulls that had poorly developed or absent caudal preputial muscles. It was concluded that deficiency of the caudal preputial muscles in polled Bos indicus derived bulls may predispose to preputial prolapse at an early age, but no predisposing anatomical factors were found for horned Bos indicus derived bulls. In these studies, preputial eversion and preputial prolapse were found in horned Bos indicus derived bulls that did not have any preputial muscle deficiency and it was noted that preputial eversion was not related to the length of the prepuce. Further studies confirmed that preputial eversion was linearly and consistently associated with position of the glans penis within the sheath in Bos indicus derived bulls, and movement of the glans penis towards the preputial orifice consistently resulted in preputial eversion in these bulls. A method to objectively measure the relationship between movement of the glans penis within the sheath and preputial eversion was developed. Studies in humans have linked function of some abdominal muscles to function of the pelvic organs. This relationship was investigated in Bos indicus derived bulls to determine whether the function of specific abdominal muscles affected position of the penis in the sheath. Using the method developed to objectively measure the relationship between penis movement and preputial eversion, the abdominal muscles that potentially were associated with movement of the glans penis or preputial eversion were examined but no significant relationships were observed. In the anatomical study of Bos indicus derived bulls not affected with preputial prolapse a more pendulous sheath was associated with increased prevalence of preputial eversion. This relationship was confirmed for horned and polled bulls in the penis movement studies. Bos indicus derived bulls with more pendulous sheaths evert their prepuces more than bulls with less pendulous sheaths thus increasing the risk of damage to the prepuce either from the environment, other bulls, or from them inadvertently stepping on the everted prepuce when they get to their feet. Culling Bos indicus derived bulls with more pendulous sheaths should reduce the incidence of preputial eversion and possibly preputial prolapse. The anatomical study of Bos indicus derived bulls that did not have preputial prolapse demonstrates that there are herds of bulls where the polled bulls do not have any evidence of deficiency of the caudal preputial iv muscles. There is a need to develop a practical and cost effective test to identify polled Bos indicus bulls that have a deficiency in their caudal preputial muscles.

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In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

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Globalisation leads people getting a chance to move to a different place, to dine in a different context and to experience a different lifestyle. This paper evaluates the designs which offer dining experience in elsewhere, a changed context. A logical narrative review of literature has been conducted to clarify the patterns that restaurant practitioners, designers and social science researchers used for developing dining experience in elsewhere. The paper defines two hourglass balance pattern via food between diner and dining experience providers, as well as a set of interactive strategies in dining experience design. The former can be regarded as an example of the latter pattern. The findings indicate an empathetic setting design framework is needed in future research. This is the first paper that examines the dining experience in light of the atmosphere caused by people’s physical and psychological mobility flow in modern society. The findings provide an access to establish dining experience design framework in future research, that is, achieve various levels of diners’ needs in dining setting design by distributing the multisensory effects to activate diners’ involvement in the dining experience.

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For the purposes of obtaining a number of components with nearly identical thickness distributions over the substrate area and of minimizing the inhomogeneities of the film, it is logical to presume that a substrate rotating on its own axis and revolving around another axis will give more uniformity in film thickness than a substrate only revolving around one axis. In relation to the practical applications, an investigation has been undertaken to study the refinement that can be achieved by using a planar planetary substrate holder. It is shown theoretically that the use of the planetary substrate holder under ideal conditions of source and geometry does not offer any further improvement in uniformity of thickness over the conventional rotary work-holder. It is also shown that the geometrical parameters alone have little influence over the uniformity achieved on a planetary substrate, because of the complex cyclidal motion of any point on it. However, for any given geometry, a non-integral speed ratio of the planetary substrate and the work-holder shows considerably less variation in thickness over the substrate area.