Estudo sobre o efeito de variáveis macro econômico e do spread de credit default swap no risco de evento de crédito soberano

Este trabalho explora a realização de default soberano em função da estrutura de spreads de CDS (Credit Default Swap). Pode-se dizer que os spreads revelam a probabilidade de default de um país. Aplicamos a metodologia proposta neste trabalho para Argentina, Coreia, Equador, Indonésia, México, Peru, Turquia, Ucrânia, Venezuela e Rússia. Nós mostramos que um modelo de um único fator seguindo um processo lognormal captura a probabilidade de default. Também mostramos que as variáveis macro econômicas inflação, desemprego e crescimento não explicam a variável dependente do estudo (probabilidade de default). Cada país reage de maneira diferente a crise econômica que a leva a não honrar seus compromissos com as dívidas contraídas.

A política pública de mediação de conflitos no município de São Paulo

Este Artigo tem por objetivo dar conhecimento da política pública de segurança em mediação de conflitos, concebida pela Secretaria Municipal de Segurança Urbana e desempenhada pelo órgão executor em segurança municipal, a Guarda Civil Metropolitana. Trata-se de um programa implementado no ano de 2012, que objetiva, por meio do policiamento preventivo e comunitário, promover transformações sociais através da cultura da paz e de confiança entre Estado e sociedade. Considerando ser recente, faltam dados a respeito do impacto social que a mediação de conflitos vem provocando, no entanto a iniciativa do Governo foi recentemente premiada pela Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU).

Collateral or utility penalties ?

In a two-period economy with incomplete markets and possibility of default we consider the two classical ways to enforce the honor of financial commitments: by using utility penalties and by using collateral requirements that borrowers have to fulfill. Firstly, we prove that any equilibrium in an economy with collateral requirements is also equilibrium in a non-collateralized economy where each agent is penalized (rewarded) in his utility if his delivery rate is lower (greater) than the payment rate of the financial market. Secondly, we prove the converse: any equilibrium in an economy with utility penalties is also equilibrium in a collateralized economy. For this to be true the payoff function and initial endowments of the agents must be modified in a quite natural way. Finally, we prove that the equilibrium in the economy with collateral requirements attains the same welfare as in the new economy with utility penalties.

Inglorious revolution : sovereign debt, tropical credibility, and financial underdevelopment in imperial Brazil

In 1824 the creation of institutions that constrained the monarch’s ability to unilaterally tax, spend, and debase the currency put Brazil on a path toward a revolution in public finance, roughly analogous to the financial consequences of England’s Glorious Revolution. This credible commitment to honor sovereign debt resulted in successful long-term funded borrowing at home and abroad from the 1820s through the 1880s that was unrivalled in Latin America. Some domestic bonds, denominated in the home currency and bearing exchange clauses, eventually circulated in European financial markets. The share of total debt accounted for by long-term funded issues grew, and domestic debt came to dominate foreign debt. Sovereign debt yields fell over time in London and Rio de Janeiro, and the cost of new borrowing declined on average. The market’s assessment of the probability of default tended to decrease. Imperial Brazil enjoyed favorable conditions for borrowing, and escaped the strong form of “original sin” stressed by recent work on sovereign debt. The development of vibrant private financial markets did not, however, follow from the enhanced credibility of government debt. Private finance in Imperial Brazil suffered from politicized market interventions that undermined the development of domestic capital markets. Private interest rates remained high, entry into commercial banking was heavily restricted, and limited-liability joint-stock companies were tightly controlled. The Brazilian case provides a powerful counterexample to the general proposition of North and Weingast that institutional changes that credibly commit the government to honor its obligations necessarily promote the development of private finance. The very institutions that enhanced the credibility of sovereign debt permitted the systematic repression of private financial development. In terms of its consequences for domestic capital markets, the liberal Constitution of 1824 represented an “inglorious” revolution.

Renegociação de dívidas e moral hazard: uma análise do efeito da política de descontos no pagamento de dívidas de cartões de crédito

O Brasil vem vivenciando um aumento na demanda por cartões de crédito, principalmente nas classes baixas. Entretanto, a população de menor renda e menor qualificação representa maior riscos para a operação. Este fato é evidenciado pelas altas taxas de inadimplência. Exposto isso, empresas se utilizam de estratégias de renegociação de dívida na tentativa de recuperar parte do investimento realizado. Entretanto, poucos foram os estudos acerca da consequência no longo prazo destas estratégias. Utilizando os experimentos realizados por uma empresa de cartão de crédito, cujas campanhas de renegociação variavam mês a mês, este estudo, procurou evidências de que as ofertas de renegociação de dívidas podem afetar a reputação da firma, fazendo com que clientes da rede mesma rede social deste que recebeu a oferta de renegociação também fiquem inadimplentes. Concluímos que o aumento do desconto nas negociações tem um efeito significativo sobre o incentivo do cliente em honrar suas obrigações junto a empresa, ou seja, o aumento de 0,01 p.p. no desconto dado aos clientes aumenta em 0,05 sua probabilidade em atrasar sua fatura no próximo período.

Do lixo à solidariedade : avanços e perspectivas na busca de uma nova realidade

The dissertating study about the solidarity economy has the objective to analyze the four unions responsible for the selective municipal garbage collection in Natal. It aims at verifying the consolidation of these unions as solidarity economic undertakings, revealing which progresses they have made, as well as the social and economic insertion of the garbage collectors and their process of conquering citizenship. The referred four unions had been founded and are constituted, in their majority, by collectors coming from the Cidade Nova lixão (big garbage). As it was closed in August 2004, they decided to make a union in order to collecting garbage. As what concerns the methodic and theoretic proceedings, our research has been developed with a critical perspective and a qualitative approach without discarding and quantitative one. The central analytical categories of this paper are: association, work, social exclusion and citizenship. Our research has had three articulated axis which aim was to apprehend the subject, disclosing it. The exposition of the investigative results is subdivided in four chapters. The first one approaches the main aspects of the crisis of the capital and its reflexes in the world of work. Here we deal with the question the structural unemployment coming as a result of the present economic model, the mains changes verified in the Brazilian work market, as well as levels of unemployment affecting the work market in Natal s metropolitan region. The second chapter treats of the origin, concept and revival in Brazil concerning the tradition of thought and cooperative economic organization, which has recovered the central elements of the associative thought and is nowadays studied in Latin America under the name of solidarity economy. The third chapter deals with embodiment of the collectors unions, its history, appearing and development of each union. The fourth chapter presents the relative dimensions of the analysis categories supported in the reports of institutional actors as well as the perception collectors have about the recyclable stuffs, the way they face the daily life and so on, what brings about the contradictions present in their reality. The final comments sum up the main trends and particularities of the unions researched under the light of the solidarity economy and disclose the real perspectives of social and economic insertion of these collectors and the process they follow to conquest social recognition

Dos atos confessos aos afetos não-ditos: Um olhar sob as múltiplas experiências femininas a partir da análise dos discursos jurídicos, jornalísticos e orais

Women, subjectiveness, experimentations. This paper walks through gender, sexuality, body and subjectivity, bounding as the focus denaturalize the representations of womanlinessstaff and manliness and the modeled subjectivity by normative discusses that shows the transcendency based on multiplicities of experiences, wishes and life way wattled by men and women from the Caicó City s society in the decades from 1900 to 1945. For this, it was adopted a dialogic methodology inlcluding bibliographic and theorist references as well as sources like articles from Jornal das Moças (Lady s Journal); defloration s crime processes, abortion, infanticide and body lesions; iconographic sources and Caicó citizen memories in the period commented. Based on that sources, this work analyze the discursive construction of feminine through Justice and Jornal das Moças that paved by sanitarian, normalizing and moralizing discourses has spread clichés and stereotypes of womanlinessstaff and manliness, which has resulted by to universalize the experiences feminines in polarities and binary oppositions regarding to manliness, it has delineated them as asexual, irrational, anesthesiaed for pleasure and biologically meant to home activities modeling subjectivities that did not create ways for the singularization processes. This polarities, effects of sexual regulatory practices and gender legitimate the representations of courtship, maternity and honor, that although it has been incorporated not passivant on the building of the poor men and women subjectivity, it did not support itself in view of socio-cultural and economic reality of the poorest society side. Therefore, on this work emerge a plurality of women who has transited past the public sphere, who interlaced amorous informal relationships, who has kept relationships before the marriage, who hás established multiples familiar arrangements and helpful networks, who was single mothers without being considered dishonored women by social groups, who made matrimonial agreements without the rules of a formal civil marriage, who made use of beverageey to provoke the menstruation constituting multiples ways to experiment the life. This subjective feminine experimentations turned it possible to notice that representations concerning about the body, sexuality, date, maternity and honor of this women has constituted itself while molecularies and particulares . It was the affection not commented of the feminine sexuality that turned it possible to analyze the construction of singular subjectivities as a opened process, continuous, active, begetting new lands, life ways and wishes cartographies

O compromisso político do serviço prestado pela Fundação Bradesco na cidade de João Pessoa

In this work we have analyzed the political commitment of the social assistance sponsored by the Bradesco Foundation in João Pessoa. This Foundation is a private institution of public interest that provides social assistance to low income populations all over Brazil. This kind of work is one of the oldest management initiatives in what is actually referred to as managers` social responsibility. This thesis assumes that managers who are in fact socially responsible should guide their actions by the principles of social democracy, so that everyone can enjoy citizens` social freedom, and guarantee their rights as well as the political awareness of social actors. Analysis of documents and a qualitative approach have been applied to the pedagogical Project of the Foundation, as well as phenomenology to study the social profile of their students. The analysis of the pedagogical project as well as the students` standpoint towards life reveals that the Bradesco Foundation is indeed committed to the social efficacy of its students. The educational proposal of the organization includes those elements that are required for teenagers` education envisaging participative citizenship. The teenagers` speech reveals that they have developed the project identity, being therefore able to take part in the process of political transformation of our time. The results indicate that the Bradesco Foundation not only guarantees some of the basic social rights for the healthy development of those who attend their courses, but also sponsors a high level education providing both a technical and a political formation

Caminho possível para o desenvolvimento do RN: a utopia do Polo Gás Sal

La présente étude sur la modernisation économique qui s est opérée dans le Rio Grande do Norte, constitue un débat concernant les tentatives de faire aboutir un projet de développement industriel fondé sur l exploitation des matières premières locales telles que le sel, le calcaire, les eaux mères et le pétrole, entre les années 70 et 90 du XXe siècle. Elle cherche à montrer, à partir de l observation de l action planifiée de l État national et régional, soutenu par le capital international et par les groupes économiques et politiques locaux, comment on a tenté d implanter, dans des conjonctures économiques distinctes, une industrie d intrants de base moyennant la création de deux pôles de développement : le Pólo Químico Industrial (1974) et le Pólo Gás Sal (1996). Elle est centrée sur l analyse des actions orientées vers la concrétisation de ces pôles, et prendra pour objet les politiques de développement émanant de l État national, en particulier celles qui relevaient du II PND et qui visaient, au cours des années 70, à l implantation d une industrie décentralisée dans la région Nordeste ; les règles fixées par le Plano Nacional de Desestatizações, destinées à promouvoir les privatisations des entreprises publiques brésiliennes, lesquelles ont rendu possible la vente d Alcanorte au groupe industriel commandé par Fragoso Pires, et les politiques définies par l État national et régional, rassemblées sous le titre de « guerre fiscale » afin d attirer des capitaux internationaux susceptibles de rendre viable le Pólo Gás Sal. Il y est démontré que l État a coordonné un ensemble d actions dans les domaines de l infrastructure et des exonérations fiscales et financières, dans le but d accélérer la transition d une économie primaire et exportatrice vers une économie moderne, industrialisée. Et que le concours simultané de forces économiques et sociales particulièrement expressives le capital national et international, les élites locales n a pas suffi pour promouvoir la modernisation industrielle escomptée des secteurs chimique et pétrochimique. Parmi les différentes raisons qui ont contribué à un tel échec, on peut mentionner : l absence d une accumulation interne préalable de capital ; la dépendance de l économie locale par rapport à la technologie et au capital des groupes économiques internationaux ; l inconsistance des stratégies de développement relevant de la politique qui caractérisait la « guerre fiscale », et la fragilité de la représentation politique locale

Estado desenvolvimentista e o Nordeste :o BNB na busca de um modelo de desenvolvimento regional

This research tried to follow up with the way of intervention that a developing State promotes it regional development, once its action departs from a quantitative conception until its acting focused in maintenance, like the strategy of local development input in the Northeastern of Brazil in the 90 s. particularly, the attention was focused onto Banco do Nordeste which, between 1995 and 2002, achieved a organization changing process to get fit itself to the new conception of development and State, that advocates the maintenance and the participation of the society in its accomplishment, becoming itself the main agent of the Federal Government in the Region. By taking over the strategy of local development, Banco do Nordeste starts, at least in speech, to be less of a bank to become more of a development agent , representing some development and hope to overcome the social and economical inequalities of the Region. The hypothesis that surrounds this essay is that this reorientation experienced at Banco do Nordeste is related to three factors: timing; the Institution of a project of international technical cooperation with PNUD; the unrest of an employees group, who used to fight for the acting increase of the Bank to beyond the credit acting; and, above all, the juncture created in Ceara from the second half of the 80 s, expressed, mainly, for the political rise of a group of businessmen, who took over and modernized the standards of public management in the State, transforming the cearense experience into reference in Brazil and the world. The research was developed from information got through the use of semi-structured interviews and documental research and, as complementary resource, field observation. The interviews were done with BNB managers between 1995 and 2003, some of them current administrators (2003-2006), plus one of CAPEF directors and the present president of AFBNB. The research revealed that strategic place taken by BNB in the period studied did not come to represent a rupture in its organizational culture, being strongly attached to factors that allows its operation. When some of these elements stopped existing, it was observed a retracing in the pattern of state intervention in the Region. This conclusion restates the vision of State that guided this thesis, identified as relationships field, of different interests; space where social conflicts are established; incarnated through the institutions

O piso salarial nacional: a valorização do professor na Constituição de 1988

The paper investigates the legal mechanisms used by the Legislature and the Executive to implement the constitutional principle of the teacher s minimum wage, which is proclaimed in the Constitution as a strategy of professional appreciation for this category. The text demonstrates that the legal mechanisms used to value the teacher were: the 1988 Constitution, the constitutional amendments to this Charter updated and modified the original text in relation to the matter, and finally, the Minimum Wage Law . Article nº 206 of 1988 s Federal Constitution established that basic education teachers, who work in public schools, would be entitled to a national minimum wage. Law nº 11.738/2008 ( Minimum Wage Law ) regulated the matter and made other determinations on the relationship between the State and the teachers such as the establishment of parameters for the distribution of the workload of teachers. Based on this law, since 2009 the minimum wage has been set annually by the Federal Government. However, state governments and municipalities throughout Brazil protested prescriptions contained in the Minimum Wage Law . In this context, some governors and mayors led the Supreme Court regarding the constitutionality of this law. The complainants considered that there was unconstitutional by the following: definition of the teacher s workday, which in the complainants point of view was competence of local governments; ensuring that teachers receive salaries tied to the minimum wage with retroactive effect; transformation of the minimum wage in basic salary, lack of sufficient budget in the states and municipalities to honor with the new values to be paid to teachers and, finally, determining workload for the teacher to perform other activities besides classroom activities. At the trial held at the STF the majority of Ministers rejected the claim and considered that the Minimum Wage Law , taken together, was constitutional. However, this decision did not alter the position of the managers or the interpretation of the ministers who agreed with the unconstitutionality of some aspects of the law. This means that one law can present differences in interpretation between ordinary people and among members of the Judiciary. The search showed the following conclusions: the law is not a definitive parameter of justice, because it is deeply linked to various interests; the development, implementation, and judgment of laws dealing with minimum wage of teaching are linked to historical and cultural aspects of society; the demand for enhancement of teacher and setting a minimum wage has only emerged in the late twentieth century, a fact explained in this work based on data that indicate the recent concern of Brazilian State with schooling a phenomenon typically Republican and with the professionalization of teaching emerging concern from the knowledge society; the Legislative and Executive search mechanism to implement the minimum wage of the teachers because of the contemporary need for professionalization of teaching

Mediação como instrumento de desjudicialização das questões familiares: constitucionalização do Direito de Família

The Liberal Constitutionalism emerged from the late eighteenth century, a period of major revolutions (French and American), fruit of the struggle for libertarian rights. Although the time of the first written constitutions, these were linked to mere political letters, did not provide for fundamental human rights, as it is, so only on the state organization, structure of powers, division of powers of the state and some relations between state and individuals. There was a clear division between the civil codes and constitutions, those governing private relations and acted as barriers to non-state intervention. After the Second World War, the constitutions are no longer Letters political order to establish how the human person, in order to enshrine the fundamental rights, the primacy of constitutional principles and take their normative function against ordinary legislator. Constitutional evolution gave the name of contemporary constitutionalism, based on repersonalization or despatrimonialização of Private Law, ceasing the separation of legislative civil codes and constitutions, in favor of the protection of fundamental rights of the human person. And this tendency to the Brazilian Federal Constitution of 1988 brought higher ground the dignity of the human person, the epicenter axiological legal to govern private relations, including family law. The constitutionalization of family law motivates the adoption of desjudicialização family issues, so as to respect the direio intimacy, privacy, private autonomy and access to justice. Conflictual family relationships require special treatment, given the diversity and dynamism of their new compositions. The break in the family relationship is guided in varied feelings among its members in order to hinder an end harmonic. Thus, the judiciary, through performances impositive, not to honor the power of decision of the parties, as also on the structural problems faced to operate on these cases, the environment is not the most appropriate to offer answers to the end of family quarrels. Situation that causes future demands on the dissatisfaction of the parties with the result. Before the development of the Family Law comes the need to adopt legal institutions, which monitor the socio-cultural, and that promote an effective assistance to people involved in this kind of conflict. In obedience to the private autonomy, before manifestations of volunteers involved in family mediation, among autocompositivos instruments of conflict resolution, is indicated as the most shaped the treatment of family quarrels. Remaining, then the state a minimal intervention to prevent excessive intrusion into private life and personal privacy

Os crimes de mídia no paradigma democrático constitucional

The criminal responsibility of the media is analyzed when the criteria for production of news and events involving public safety are produced without considering the technical, legal and ethical practice of journalism in the media factors. Freedom of speech, expression of thought, necessary for professional qualifications and constitutional limits, reaching criminal constitutional principles and the possibilities of criminal liability for offenses practiced in the media are present as key factors legal dialogue in this work. The judgment of the Supreme Court on the unconstitutionality of Law nº. 5.250/67 called Media Law caused a gap in the national legal system, forcing the use of the criminal code to address issues that involve crimes produced in media professional performance. The presumption of innocence is ignored by the professional media during a police investigation where the information published does not respect, including constitutional guarantees: the right to privacy, honor and image. The right to information and the duty to inform media are worked in its constitutional aspect, considering that the same information should be produced is guided by the quality and guiding principles of truth. The constitutional concept of media is presented as information with the appropriate language of the news media, produced and disseminated through the vehicles of mass media, whether in print or digital platform. The presented model of the legal right to information is outlined from a constitutional hermeneutics, increasing the production of news as a result of the occupation of journalist in different news platforms, guaranteeing the quality of this prolific law. Under the Freedom of professional activity of the journalist, the constitutional limits are addressed in line with the reality of (non) regulation of their profession, considering the constitutional abuses committed in the exercise of that activity linked to communication fences. Jusphilosophic field reaches the limits of the duty of truth in journalism as a tool for spreading news, respect the audience and compatibility with the constitutional state. Using the conceptual and doctrinal aspects, this criminal offense is parsed from the journalistic practice and the publication of news involving public safety, with the hypothetical field consummation of that crime through the eventual intention. As a form of judgment against these crimes produced in honor media presents the court of the jury as a legitimate form of democratic decision