Assessment of the DIXTAL DX-2710 Automated Oscillometric Device for Blood Pressure Measurement with the Validation Protocols of the British Hypertension Society (BHS) and the Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation (AAMI)

OBJECTIVE: To assess the Dixtal DX2710 automated oscillometric device used for blood pressure measurement according to the protocols of the BHS and the AAMI. METHODS: Three blood pressure measurements were taken in 94 patients (53 females 15 to 80 years). The measurements were taken randomly by 2 observers trained to measure blood pressure with a mercury column device connected with an automated device. The device was classified according to the protocols of the BHS and AAMI. RESULT: The mean of blood pressure levels obtained by the observers was 148±38/93±25 mmHg and that obtained with the device was 148±37/89±26 mmHg. Considering the differences between the measurements obtained by the observer and those obtained with the automated device according to the criteria of the BHS, the following classification was adopted: "A" for systolic pressure (69% of the differences < 5; 90% < 10; and 97% < 15 mmHg); and "B" for diastolic pressure (63% of the differences < 5; 83% < 10; and 93% < 15 mmHg). The mean and standard deviation of the differences were 0±6.27 mmHg for systolic pressure and 3.82±6.21 mmHg for diastolic pressure. CONCLUSION: The Dixtal DX2710 device was approved according to the international recommendations.

Using one-year claim development to chose a large claim reserving technique

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais

The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

Моделирование и прогноз основных гидрофизических полей в Черном море

განხილულია მთელ შავ ზღვასა და ზღვის აუზის საქართველოს სექტორში მიმდინარე დინამიკური პროცესების მოდელირების ზოგიერთი შედეგები შავი ზღვის ზოგადი (4,9 კმ სივრცითი გარჩევისუნარიანობით) და რეგიონალური (1 კმ სივრცითი გარჩევისუნარიანობით) ცირკულაციის ბაროკლინური პროგნოსტიკული მოდელების საფუძველზე, რომლებიც განვითარებულია მ. ნოდიას გეოფიზიკის ინსტიტუტში.

Некоторые примеры численного прогноза гидрофизических полей в грузинском секторе чёрного моря

წარმოდგენილია შავი ზღვის რეგიონალური ცირკულაციის, ტემპერატურისა და მარილიანობის ველების ზოგიერთი პროგნოზის შედეგი შავი ზღვის საქართველოს სექტორისათვის. პროგნოზის გათვლისათვის საჭირო მონაცემები – საწყისი სამგანზომილებიანი ველები და პროგნოზული ველები თხევად საზღვარსა და ზღვის ზედაპირზე მიიღება ოპერატიულად ინტერნეტის საშუალებით ზღვის ჰიდროფიზიკის ინსტიტუტიდან. გათვლილი პროგნოზების შედეგების ანალიზმა აჩვენა რომ მოდელის გარჩევისუნარიანობის მაღალი ხარისხი მნიშვნელოვანი ფაქტორია ზღვის სანაპირო ზოლში ფორმირებული მცირე ზომის გრიგალების იდენტიფიკაციისათვის.

Ivabradine Improves Heart Rate Variability in Patients with Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Background: Ivabradine is a novel specific heart rate (HR)-lowering agent that improves event-free survival in patients with heart failure (HF). Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the effect of ivabradine on time domain indices of heart rate variability (HRV) in patients with HF. Methods: Forty-eight patients with compensated HF of nonischemic origin were included. Ivabradine treatment was initiated according to the latest HF guidelines. For HRV analysis, 24-h Holter recording was obtained from each patient before and after 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine. Results: The mean RR interval, standard deviation of all normal to normal RR intervals (SDNN), the standard deviation of 5-min mean RR intervals (SDANN), the mean of the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals for all 5-min segments (SDNN index), the percentage of successive normal RR intervals exceeding 50 ms (pNN50), and the square root of the mean of the squares of the differences between successive normal to normal RR intervals (RMSSD) were low at baseline before treatment with ivabradine. After 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine, the mean HR (83.6 ± 8.0 and 64.6 ± 5.8, p < 0.0001), mean RR interval (713 ± 74 and 943 ± 101 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN (56.2 ± 15.7 and 87.9 ± 19.4 ms, p < 0.0001), SDANN (49.5 ± 14.7 and 76.4 ± 19.5 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN index (24.7 ± 8.8 and 38.3 ± 13.1 ms, p < 0.0001), pNN50 (2.4 ± 1.6 and 3.2 ± 2.2 %, p < 0.0001), and RMSSD (13.5 ± 4.6 and 17.8 ± 5.4 ms, p < 0.0001) substantially improved, which sustained during both when awake and while asleep. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that treatment with ivabradine improves HRV in nonischemic patients with HF.

Simulationsbasierte Frühwarnsysteme zur Unterstützung der operativen Produktionssteuerung und -planung in der Automobilindustrie

Material flow simulation, Simulation-based Early Warning System, Discrete Event Simulation, Production Planning and Control, Automotive Industry, Forecast of Future System States, Monitoring Systems

Heart Rate and Systolic Blood Pressure Variability on Recently Diagnosed Diabetics

Background:Diabetes affects approximately 250 million people in the world. Cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy is a common complication of diabetes that leads to severe postural hypotension, exercise intolerance, and increased incidence of silent myocardial infarction.Objective:To determine the variability of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) in recently diagnosed diabetic patients.Methods:The study included 30 patients with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes of less than 2 years and 30 healthy controls. We used a Finapres® device to measure during five minutes beat-to-beat HR and blood pressure in three experimental conditions: supine position, standing position, and rhythmic breathing at 0.1 Hz. The results were analyzed in the time and frequency domains.Results:In the HR analysis, statistically significant differences were found in the time domain, specifically on short-term values such as standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN), root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD), and number of pairs of successive NNs that differ by more than 50 ms (pNN50). In the BP analysis, there were no significant differences, but there was a sympathetic dominance in all three conditions. The baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) decreased in patients with early diabetes compared with healthy subjects during the standing maneuver.Conclusions:There is a decrease in HR variability in patients with early type 2 diabetes. No changes were observed in the BP analysis in the supine position, but there were changes in BRS with the standing maneuver, probably due to sympathetic hyperactivity.

Cardiovascular Autonomic Dysfunction in Patients with Morbid Obesity

Abstract Background: Morbid obesity is directly related to deterioration in cardiorespiratory capacity, including changes in cardiovascular autonomic modulation. Objective: This study aimed to assess the cardiovascular autonomic function in morbidly obese individuals. Methods: Cross-sectional study, including two groups of participants: Group I, composed by 50 morbidly obese subjects, and Group II, composed by 30 nonobese subjects. The autonomic function was assessed by heart rate variability in the time domain (standard deviation of all normal RR intervals [SDNN]; standard deviation of the normal R-R intervals [SDNN]; square root of the mean squared differences of successive R-R intervals [RMSSD]; and the percentage of interval differences of successive R-R intervals greater than 50 milliseconds [pNN50] than the adjacent interval), and in the frequency domain (high frequency [HF]; low frequency [LF]: integration of power spectral density function in high frequency and low frequency ranges respectively). Between-group comparisons were performed by the Student’s t-test, with a level of significance of 5%. Results: Obese subjects had lower values of SDNN (40.0 ± 18.0 ms vs. 70.0 ± 27.8 ms; p = 0.0004), RMSSD (23.7 ± 13.0 ms vs. 40.3 ± 22.4 ms; p = 0.0030), pNN50 (14.8 ± 10.4 % vs. 25.9 ± 7.2%; p = 0.0061) and HF (30.0 ± 17.5 Hz vs. 51.7 ± 25.5 Hz; p = 0.0023) than controls. Mean LF/HF ratio was higher in Group I (5.0 ± 2.8 vs. 1.0 ± 0.9; p = 0.0189), indicating changes in the sympathovagal balance. No statistical difference in LF was observed between Group I and Group II (50.1 ± 30.2 Hz vs. 40.9 ± 23.9 Hz; p = 0.9013). Conclusion: morbidly obese individuals have increased sympathetic activity and reduced parasympathetic activity, featuring cardiovascular autonomic dysfunction.

Nota sôbre um possível fator sub-letal em gado Holstein-Friesian

In this note the A. A. relate the occurrence of a possible sub-lethal factor, on the Holstein-Friesian herd of Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz", Piracicaba. The sire Horto was mated with his own mother, Brisa, and so, were obtained two calves, a male and a female, consecutively. Both the calves presented flexion and deviation of the fore legs. The sire's death has not alloved further observations. The study of these history cases excludes the mother's nutritional deficiency, as the cause of related phenomenon. In the consulted literature, VEIGA and MEAD et al. relate similar cases, although these are observed in other breeds of cattle The A. A. admit that cause of occurrence is a possible sublethal recessive factor, put in evidence by inbreeding.

Estudo comparativo entre métodos de contrôle quantitativo da produção leiteira

This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.

Comparative Analysis of Signals Restoration by Different Kinds of Approximation

The comparative analysis of continuous signals restoration by different kinds of approximation is performed. The software product, allowing to define optimal method of different original signals restoration by Lagrange polynomial, Kotelnikov interpolation series, linear and cubic splines, Haar wavelet and Kotelnikov-Shannon wavelet based on criterion of minimum value of mean-square deviation is proposed. Practical recommendations on the selection of approximation function for different class of signals are obtained.

Long-term Forecasting of Frame Alignment Losses for Circuit Emulation Implementation

The article provides a method for long-term forecast of frame alignment losses based on the bit-error rate monitoring for structure-agnostic circuit emulation service over Ethernet in a mobile backhaul network. The developed method with corresponding algorithm allows to detect instants of probable frame alignment losses in a long term perspective in order to give engineering personnel extra time to take some measures aimed at losses prevention. Moreover, long-term forecast of frame alignment losses allows to make a decision about the volume of TDM data encapsulated into a circuit emulation frame in order to increase utilization of the emulated circuit. The developed long-term forecast method formalized with the corresponding algorithm is recognized as cognitive and can act as a part of network predictive monitoring system.

Population biology of the crab Armases angustipes (Crustacea, Decapoda, Sesarmidae) at Brazilian tropical coast

The semi terrestrial crabs are important elements of the fauna of coastal regions. The aim of this study was to analyze the population structure of Armases angustipes (Dana, 1852) at estuaries of the Ariquindá River, considered a non impacted area, and Mamucabas River, considered a few impacted area, on the south coast of state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The species occurred in all months of the year. The number of individuals per month varied, being higher in the months of transition between the seasons. This is probably due to significant seasonal variations of air and burrow temperature and burrow salinity. There was no sexual dimorphism in size of A. angustipes in the mangrove of Ariquindá River, but males were larger than females in the mangrove of Mamucabas River. In both estuaries, the sex ratio did not differ from Mendelian proportion, but showed a deviation for females. The analysis of temporal variation in sex ratio showed significant differences in some months of the year. These variations are due to cyclical events that act distinctly on each sex. In both estuaries, size classes of carapace width were equally represented by both sexes. The ovigerous females of A. angustipes occurred only in some months of the year, especially in summer, in both estuaries. Probably the high phytoplankton productivity observed in summer favors the reproductive activity, since these algae serve as food for the larvae. Specimens of the population of Rio Ariquindá are largest and wider than those of Mamucabas River. This fact, associated with the low abundance of crabs and the lower frequency of ovigerous females observed in Mamucabas River, is an indication that this population may be influenced by the environmental impacts that this estuary has received.

Collusion in growing and shrinking markets: empirical evidence from experimental duopolies

We study collusive behaviour in experimental duopolies that compete in prices under dynamic demand conditions. In one treatment the demand grows at a constant rate. In the other treatment the demand declines at another constant rate. The rates are chosen so that the evolution of the demand in one case is just the reverse in time than the one for the other case. We use a box-design demand function so that there are no issues of finding and co-ordinating on the collusive price. Contrary to game-theoretic reasoning, our results show that collusion is significantly larger when the demand shrinks than when it grows. We conjecture that the prospect of rapidly declining profit opportunities exerts a disciplining effect on firms that facilitates collusion and discourages deviation.