Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Improved healing of large segmental defects in the rat femur by reverse dynamization in the presence of bone morphogenetic protein-2

Background Large segmental defects in bone do not heal well and present clinical challenges. This study investigated modulation of the mechanical environment as a means of improving bone healing in the presence of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP)-2. Although the influence of mechanical forces on the healing of fractures is well established, no previous studies, to our knowledge, have described their influence on the healing of large segmental defects. We hypothesized that bone-healing would be improved by initial, low-stiffness fixation of the defect, followed by high-stiffness fixation during the healing process. We call this reverse dynamization. Methods A rat model of a critical-sized femoral defect was used. External fixators were constructed to provide different degrees of stiffness and, importantly, the ability to change stiffness during the healing process in vivo. Healing of the critical-sized defects was initiated by the implantation of 11 mg of recombinant human BMP (rhBMP)-2 on a collagen sponge. Groups of rats receiving BMP-2 were allowed to heal with low, medium, and high-stiffness fixators, as well as under conditions of reverse dynamization, in which the stiffness was changed from low to high at two weeks. Healing was assessed at eight weeks with use of radiographs, histological analysis, microcomputed tomography, dual x-ray absorptiometry, and mechanical testing. Results Under constant stiffness, the low-stiffness fixator produced the best healing after eight weeks. However, reverse dynamization provided considerable improvement, resulting in a marked acceleration of the healing process by all of the criteria of this study. The histological data suggest that this was the result of intramembranous, rather than endochondral, ossification. Conclusions Reverse dynamization accelerated healing in the presence of BMP-2 in the rat femur and is worthy of further investigation as a means of improving the healing of large segmental bone defects. Clinical Relevance These data provide the basis of a novel, simple, and inexpensive way to improve the healing of critical-sized defects in long bones. Reverse dynamization may also be applicable to other circumstances in which bonehealing is problematic.

Design, characterisation and in vivo testing of a new, adjustable stiffness, external fixator for the rat femur

Very little is known about the infl uence of the mechanical environment on the healing of large segmental defects. This partly reflects the lack of standardised, well characterised technologies to enable such studies. Here we report the design, construction and characterisation of a novel external fixator for use in conjunction with rat femoral defects. This device not only imposes a predetermined axial stiffness on the lesion, but also enables the stiffness to be changed during the healing process. The main frame of the fi xator consists of polyethylethylketone with titanium alloy mounting pins. The stiffness of the fi xator is determined by interchangeable connection elements of different thicknesses. Fixators were shown to stabilise 5 mm femoral defects in rats in vivo for at least 8 weeks during unrestricted cage activity. No distortion or infections, including pin infections, were noted. The healing process was simulated in vitro by inserting into a 5 mm femoral defect, materials whose Young’s moduli approximated those of the different tissues present in regenerating bone. These studies confirmed that, although the external fixator is the major determinant of axial stiffness during the early phase of healing, the regenerate within the lesion subsequently dominates this property. There is much clinical interest in altering the mechanics of the defect to enhance bone healing. Our data suggest that, if alteration of the mechanical environment is to be used to modulate the healing of large segmental defects, this needs to be performed before the tissue properties become dominant.

Intermittent Fugu parathyroid hormone 1 (1–34) is an anabolic bone agent in young male rats and osteopenic ovariectomized rats

Human parathyroid hormone (hPTH) is currently the only treatment for osteoporosis that forms new bone. Previously we described a fish equivalent, Fugu parathyroid hormone 1 (fPth1) which has hPTH-like biological activity in vitro despite fPth1(1–34) sharing only 53% identity with hPTH(1–34). Here we demonstrate the in vivo actions of fPth1(1–34) on bone. In study 1, young male rats were injected intermittently for 30 days with fPth1 [30 μg–1000 μg/kg body weight (b.w.), (30fPth1–1000fPth1)] or hPTH [30 μg–100 μg/kg b.w. (30hPTH–100hPTH)]. In proximal tibiae at low doses, the fPth1 was positively correlated with trabecular bone volume/total volume (TbBV/TV) while hPTH increased TbBV/TV, trabecular thickness (TbTh) and trabecular number (TbN). 500fPth1 and 1000fPth1 increased TbBV/TV, TbTh, TbN, mineral apposition rate (MAR) and bone formation rate/bone surface (BFR/BS) with a concomitant decrease in osteoclast surface and number. In study 2 ovariectomized (OVX), osteopenic rats and sham operated (SHAM) rats were injected intermittently with 500 μg/kg b.w. of fPth1 (500fPth1) for 11 weeks. 500fPth1 treatment resulted in increased TbBV/TV (151%) and TbTh (96%) in the proximal tibiae due to increased bone formation as assessed by BFR/BS (490%) and MAR (131%). The effect was restoration of TbBV/TV to SHAM levels without any effect on bone resorption. 500fPth1 also increased TbBV/TV and TbTh in the vertebrae (L6) and cortical thickness in the mid-femora increasing bone strength at these sites. fPth1 was similarly effective in SHAM rats. Notwithstanding the low amino acid sequence homology with hPTH (1–34), we have clearly established the efficacy of fPth1 (1–34) as an anabolic bone agent.

Disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practices

Based on a survey of climate change experts in different stakeholder groups and interviews with corporate climate change managers, this study provides insights into the gap between what information stakeholders expect and what Australian corporations disclose. This paper focuses on annual reports and sustainability reports with specific reference to the disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practices. The findings culminate in the refinement of a best practice index for the disclosure of climate-change-related corporate governance practises. Interview results indicate that the low levels of disclosures made by Australian companies may be due to a number of factors. These include a potential expectations gap, the absence of pressure from powerful stakeholders, a concern for stakeholder information overload, the cost of providing information, limited perceived accountability for climate change, and preferring other media for disclosure.

Non-monotonic Reasoning and the Reversibility of Belief Change

Traditional approaches to nonmonotonic reasoning fail to satisfy a number of plausible axioms for belief revision and suffer from conceptual difficulties as well. Recent work on ranked preferential models (RPMs) promises to overcome some of these difficulties. Here we show that RPMs are not adequate to handle iterated belief change. Specifically, we show that RPMs do not always allow for the reversibility of belief change. This result indicates the need for numerical strengths of belief.

Origins of the observed asymmetry in out-of-field dose from a linac fitted with an external micro-MLC

Objective Recently, Taylor et al. reported that use of the BrainLAB m3 microMLC, for stereotactic radiosurgery, results in a decreased out-of-field dose in the direction of leaf-motion compared to the outof- field dose measured in the direction orthogonal to leaf-motion [1]. It was recommended that, where possible, patients should be treated with their superior–inferior axes aligned with the microMLCs leafmotion direction, to minimise out-of-field doses [1]. This study aimed, therefore, to examine the causes of this asymmetry in outof- field dose and, in particular, to establish that a similar recommendation need not be made for radiotherapy treatments delivered by linear accelerators without external micro-collimation systems. Methods Monte Carlo simulations were used to study out-of-field dose from different linear accelerators (the Varian Clinacs 21iX and 600C and the Elekta Precise) with and without internal MLCs and external microMLCs [2]. Results Simulation results for the Varian Clinac 600C linear accelerator with BrainLAB m3 microMLC confirm Taylor et als [1] published experimental data. The out-of-field dose in the leaf motion direction is deposited by lower energy (more obliquely scattered) photons than the out-of-field dose in the orthogonal direction. Linear accelerators without microMLCs produce no asymmetry in out-offield dose. Conclusions The asymmetry in out-of-field dose previously measured by Taylor et al. [1] results from the shielding characteristics of the BrainLAB m3 microMLC device and is not produced by the linear accelerator to which it is attached.

Dispositional resistance to change : measurement equivalence and the link to personal values across 17 nations

The concept of dispositional resistance to change has been introduced in a series of exploratory and confirmatory analyses through which the validity of the Resistance to Change (RTC) Scale has been established (S. Oreg, 2003). However, the vast majority of participants with whom the scale was validated were from the United States. The purpose of the present work was to examine the meaningfulness of the construct and the validity of the scale across nations. Measurement equivalence analyses of data from 17 countries, representing 13 languages and 4 continents, confirmed the cross-national validity of the scale. Equivalent patterns of relationships between personal values and RTC across samples extend the nomological net of the construct and provide further evidence that dispositional resistance to change holds equivalent meanings across nations.

Team change climate : a group-level analysis of the relationships among change information and change participation, role stressors, and well-being

We explored whether teams develop shared perceptions regarding the quantity and quality of information and the extent of participation in decision making provided in an environment of continuous change. In addition, we examined whether change climate strength moderated relationships between change climate level and team outcomes. We examined relationships among aggregated change information and change participation and aggregated team outcomes, including two role stressors (i.e., role ambiguity and role overload) and two indicators of well-being (i.e., quality of worklife and distress). Questionnaires were distributed in an Australian law enforcement agency and data were used from 178 teams. Structural equation modelling analyses, controlling for a marker variable, were conducted to examine the main effects of aggregated change information and aggregated change participation on aggregated team outcomes. Results provided support for a model that included method effects due to a marker variable. In this model, change information climate was significantly negatively associated with role ambiguity, role overload, and distress, and significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change participation climate was significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change climate strength did not moderate relationships among change climate level and team outcomes.

Change readiness : a multilevel review

The authors conducted a theoretical review of the change readiness literature and identified two major limitations with this work. First, while there is substantial agreement about the key cognitions that underlie change readiness, researchers have not examined the affective element of this attitude. Second, researchers have not adopted a multilevel perspective when considering change readiness. The authors address these limitations and argue that it is important to incorporate affect into definitions of the change readiness construct and also when measuring this construct. They then develop a multilevel framework that identifies the antecedents and consequences of individual, work group, and organizational change readiness. Next, the authors outline the theoretical processes that lead to the development of individual and collective change readiness. They then review theoretical and empirical evidence to identify the antecedents of change readiness at the three levels of analysis. Finally, the authors identify a number of suggestions to guide future research seeking to adopt a multilevel approach to change readiness.

Measuring and influencing physical activity with Smartphone technology : a systematic review

Background Rapid developments in technology have encouraged the use of smartphones in physical activity research, although little is known regarding their effectiveness as measurement and intervention tools. Objective This study systematically reviewed evidence on smartphones and their viability for measuring and influencing physical activity. Data Sources Research articles were identified in September 2013 by literature searches in Web of Knowledge, PubMed, PsycINFO, EBSCO, and ScienceDirect. Study Selection The search was restricted using the terms (physical activity OR exercise OR fitness) AND (smartphone* OR mobile phone* OR cell phone*) AND (measurement OR intervention). Reviewed articles were required to be published in international academic peer-reviewed journals, or in full text from international scientific conferences, and focused on measuring physical activity through smartphone processing data and influencing people to be more active through smartphone applications. Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods Two reviewers independently performed the selection of articles and examined titles and abstracts to exclude those out of scope. Data on study characteristics, technologies used to objectively measure physical activity, strategies applied to influence activity; and the main study findings were extracted and reported. Results A total of 26 articles (with the first published in 2007) met inclusion criteria. All studies were conducted in highly economically advantaged countries; 12 articles focused on special populations (e.g. obese patients). Studies measured physical activity using native mobile features, and/or an external device linked to an application. Measurement accuracy ranged from 52 to 100 % (n = 10 studies). A total of 17 articles implemented and evaluated an intervention. Smartphone strategies to influence physical activity tended to be ad hoc, rather than theory-based approaches; physical activity profiles, goal setting, real-time feedback, social support networking, and online expert consultation were identified as the most useful strategies to encourage physical activity change. Only five studies assessed physical activity intervention effects; all used step counts as the outcome measure. Four studies (three pre–post and one comparative) reported physical activity increases (12–42 participants, 800–1,104 steps/day, 2 weeks–6 months), and one case-control study reported physical activity maintenance (n = 200 participants; >10,000 steps/day) over 3 months. Limitations Smartphone use is a relatively new field of study in physical activity research, and consequently the evidence base is emerging. Conclusions Few studies identified in this review considered the validity of phone-based assessment of physical activity. Those that did report on measurement properties found average-to-excellent levels of accuracy for different behaviors. The range of novel and engaging intervention strategies used by smartphones, and user perceptions on their usefulness and viability, highlights the potential such technology has for physical activity promotion. However, intervention effects reported in the extant literature are modest at best, and future studies need to utilize randomized controlled trial research designs, larger sample sizes, and longer study periods to better explore the physical activity measurement and intervention capabilities of smartphones.

Measurement equivalence of the dispositional resistance to change scale

Intended to bridge the gap between the latest methodological developments and cross-cultural research, this interdisciplinary resource presents the latest strategies for analyzing cross-cultural data. Techniques are demonstrated through the use of applications that employ cross national data sets such as the latest European Social Survey. With an emphasis on the generalized latent variable approach, internationally?prominent researchers from a variety of fields explain how the methods work, how to apply them, and how they relate to other methods presented in the book. Syntax and graphical and verbal explanations of the techniques are included. [from publisher's website]

When leadership meets organizational change : the influence of the top management team and supervisory leaders on change appraisals, change attitudes, and adjustment to change

Despite the importance of adaption and change for firm survival, the failure rate of organizational change efforts remains alarmingly high (Beer and Nohria, 2000; Kotter, 1995). In a recent global survey of over 3,000 executives,Meaney and Pung (2008) reported that two-thirds of executives indicated that their firm had failed to successfully implement organizational changes. Similarly, academic researchers have also concluded that difficulties in implementing and managing organizational change efforts often precipitate organizational crises (Probst and Raisch, 2005). As a result, attention has been directed to identify the factors that improve the likelihood of successfully implementing organizational change efforts. While there has been practitioner-oriented discussion around the pivotal role of workplace leaders in reducing resistance to change, only a limited number of empirical studies have examined relationships between leader behavior and employee change attitudes (e.g., Bommer, Rich, and Rubin, 2005; Herold, Caldwell, and Liu, 2008; Nemanich and Keller, 2007; Oreg and Berson, 2011). However...