Első- és másodfajú etikai kudarcok (Type I and type II ethical errors)

A cikkben a szerző a piac és a kormányzat kudarcaiból kiindulva azonosítja a közjó elérését célzó harmadik rendszer, az etikai felelősség kudarcait. Statisztikai analógiát használva elsőfajú kudarcként azonosítja, mikor az etikát nem veszik figyelembe, pedig szükség van rá. Ugyanakkor másodfajú kudarcként kezeli az etika profitnövelést célzó használatát, mely megtéveszti az érintetteteket, így még szélesebb utat enged az opportunista üzleti tevékenységnek. Meglátása szerint a három rendszer egymást nemcsak kiegészíti, de kölcsönösen korrigálja is. Ez az elsőfajú kudarc esetében általánosabb, a másodfajú kudarc megoldásához azonban a gazdasági élet alapvetéseinek átfogalmazására, az önérdek és az egydimenziós teljesítményértékelés helyett egy új, holisztikusabb szemléletű közgazdaságra van szükség. _______ In the article the author identifies the errors of ethical responsibility. That is the third system to attain common good, but have similar failures like the other two: the hands of the market and the government. Using statistical analogy the author identifies Type I error when ethics are not considered but it should be (null hypothesis is rejected however it’s true). She treats the usage of ethics to extend profit as Type II error. This misleads the stakeholders and makes room for opportunistic behaviour in business (null hypothesis is accepted in turn it’s false). In her opinion the three systems: the hand of the market, the government and the ethical management not only amend but interdependently correct each other. In the case of Type I error it is more general. Nevertheless to solve the Type II error we have to redefine the core principles of business. We need a more holistic approach in economics instead of self-interest and one-dimensional interpretation of value.

Hungary and the eurozone crisis: a comedy of errors?

The spill-over of the global fi nancial crisis has uncovered the weaknesses in the governance of the EMU. As one of the most open economies in Europe, Hungary has suff ered from the ups and downs of the global and European crisis and its mismanagement. Domestic policy blunders have complicated the situation. This paper examines how Hungary has withstood the ups and downs of the eurozone crisis. It also addresses the questions of whether the country has converged with or diverged from the EMU membership, whether joining the EMU is still a good idea for Hungary, and whether the measures to ward off the crisis have actually helped to face the challenge of growth.

Az európai uniós tagság mint modernizációs hajtóerő. Gondolatok a kelet-közép-európai országok EU-tagságának 10. évfordulóján = EU membership as a driving force of modernization. Ideas on the 10th anniversary of EU membership of East Central European countries

A szerző az Európai Unióhoz az elmúlt évtizedben csatlakozott országok felzárkózásának összefüggéseit vizsgálja, rámutatva arra, hogy a kelet-közép-európai térség országainak természetes modernizációs központja az Európai Unió. Az európai integrációba történő szerves beépülésnek nem volt és a jövőben sincs reális alternatívája. Annak ellenére, hogy a nemzetközi pénzügyi és gazdasági válság rendkívül kedvezőtlen fordulatot hozott, az új tagországok többségében jelentős ütemű felzárkózási folyamat indult el: egy évtizeden belül relatív pozíciójuk az uniós átlaghoz képest átlagosan 15 százalékpont javult a vásárlóerő-paritáson mért egy főre jutó GDP-t tekintve. A tagság számos előnye közül ki kell emelni, hogy az uniós költségvetésből származó közvetlen transzferek hatására az új tagállamok számottevő külső forráshoz jutottak, aminek révén hosszú távú fejlődésüket és versenyképességüket befolyásoló területeken jelentős beruházásokat hajthattak végre. E transzferek kapcsán a szerző felhívja a figyelmet arra, hogy a szűk látókörűen számított nettó haszonélvezői pozíció valójában kölcsönös előnyöket rejt: az EU fejlettebb országai számára is komoly előnyök származnak a megnövekedett importkeresletből és általában a bővülés kereskedelemteremtő hatásaiból. _____ The author analyses some catch-up aspects of countries joining the EU in 2004 and 2007, pointing out that the EU is an obvious centre of modernization for the countries in East Central Europe. There was no realistic alternative to participating in the European integration process and this applies also to the future. Contrary to the extremely bad general environment caused by the international financial and economic crisis, most new member-states were able to converge on the EU average quite fast: within a decade the relative regional level of development measured in GDP per capita terms and compared with the EU average increased by 15 per cent. It should be stressed that among several advantages of EU membership, direct transfers from the EU-level budget played a crucial role in improving competitiveness through investment. Looking beyond narrow-minded net budgetary positions, the author sees mutual comprehensive benefits: the more developed member-states can enjoy additional demand for their products, and in general benefit from the trade-creating effects of enlargement.

The drivers of perception: Identifying the driving factors of resident perceptions of municipal service quality in cities of South Florida

The idea of comparative performance assessment is crucial. Recent study findings show that in South Florida the use by most municipalities of external benchmarks for performance comparison is virtually non-existent. On one level this study sought to identify the factors impacting resident perceptions of municipal service quality. On a different and more practical level, this study sought to identify a core set of measures that could serve for multi jurisdictional comparisons of performance. ^ This study empirically tested three groups of hypotheses. Data were collected via custom designed survey instruments from multiple jurisdictions, representing diverse socioeconomic backgrounds, and across two counties. A second layer of analysis was conducted on municipal budget documents for the presence of performance measures. A third layer of analysis was conducted via face-to-face interviews with residents at the point of service delivery. Research questions were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistic methodologies. ^ Results of survey data yielded inconsistent findings. In absolute aggregated terms, the use of sociological determinants to guide inquiry failed to yield conclusive answers regarding the factors impacting resident perceptions of municipal service quality. At disaggregated community levels, however, definite differences emerged but these had weak predictive ability. More useful were the findings of performance measures reporting via municipal budget documents and analyses of interviews with residents at the point of service delivery. Regardless of socio-economic profile, neighborhood characteristics, level of civic engagement or type of community, the same aspects were important to citizens when making assessments of service quality. For parks and recreation, respondents most frequently cited maintenance, facility amenities, and program offerings as important while for garbage collection services timely and consistent service delivery mattered most. Surprisingly municipalities participating in the study track performance data on items indicated as important by citizen assessments but regular feed back from residents or reporting to the same is rarely done. ^ The implications of these findings suggest that endeavors, such as the one undertaken in this study, can assist in determining a core set of measures for cross jurisdictional comparisons of municipal service quality, improving municipal delivery of services, and to communicate with the public. ^

A method for enhancing digital information displayed to computer users with visual refractive errors via spatial and spectral processing

This research pursued the conceptualization, implementation, and verification of a system that enhances digital information displayed on an LCD panel to users with visual refractive errors. The target user groups for this system are individuals who have moderate to severe visual aberrations for which conventional means of compensation, such as glasses or contact lenses, does not improve their vision. This research is based on a priori knowledge of the user's visual aberration, as measured by a wavefront analyzer. With this information it is possible to generate images that, when displayed to this user, will counteract his/her visual aberration. The method described in this dissertation advances the development of techniques for providing such compensation by integrating spatial information in the image as a means to eliminate some of the shortcomings inherent in using display devices such as monitors or LCD panels. Additionally, physiological considerations are discussed and integrated into the method for providing said compensation. In order to provide a realistic sense of the performance of the methods described, they were tested by mathematical simulation in software, as well as by using a single-lens high resolution CCD camera that models an aberrated eye, and finally with human subjects having various forms of visual aberrations. Experiments were conducted on these systems and the data collected from these experiments was evaluated using statistical analysis. The experimental results revealed that the pre-compensation method resulted in a statistically significant improvement in vision for all of the systems. Although significant, the improvement was not as large as expected for the human subject tests. Further analysis suggest that even under the controlled conditions employed for testing with human subjects, the characterization of the eye may be changing. This would require real-time monitoring of relevant variables (e.g. pupil diameter) and continuous adjustment in the pre-compensation process to yield maximum viewing enhancement.

Test of a smock system on CPR primary emergency measures and medical errors during simulated emergencies

Rates of survival of victims of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) using cardio pulmonary resuscitation (CPR) have shown little improvement over the past three decades. Since registered nurses (RNs) comprise the largest group of healthcare providers in U.S. hospitals, it is essential that they are competent in performing the four primary measures (compression, ventilation, medication administration, and defibrillation) of CPR in order to improve survival rates of SCA patients. The purpose of this experimental study was to test a color-coded SMOCK system on: 1) time to implement emergency patient care measures 2) technical skills performance 3) number of medical errors, and 4) team performance during simulated CPR exercises. The study sample was 260 RNs (M 40 years, SD=11.6) with work experience as an RN (M 7.25 years, SD=9.42).Nurses were allocated to a control or intervention arm consisting of 20 groups of 5-8 RNs per arm for a total of 130 RNs in each arm. Nurses in each study arm were given clinical scenarios requiring emergency CPR. Nurses in the intervention group wore different color labeled aprons (smocks) indicating their role assignment (medications, ventilation, compression, defibrillation, etc) on the code team during CPR. Findings indicated that the intervention using color-labeled smocks for pre-assigned roles had a significant effect on the time nurses started compressions (t=3.03, p=0.005), ventilations (t=2.86, p=0.004) and defibrillations (t=2.00, p=.05) when compared to the controls using the standard of care. In performing technical skills, nurses in the intervention groups performed compressions and ventilations significantly better than those in the control groups. The control groups made significantly (t=-2.61, p=0.013) more total errors (7.55 SD 1.54) than the intervention group (5.60, SD 1.90). There were no significant differences in team performance measures between the groups. Study findings indicate use of colored labeled smocks during CPR emergencies resulted in: shorter times to start emergency CPR; reduced errors; more technical skills completed successfully; and no differences in team performance.

A method for enhancing digital information displayed to computer users with visual refractive errors via spatial and spectral processing

This research pursued the conceptualization, implementation, and verification of a system that enhances digital information displayed on an LCD panel to users with visual refractive errors. The target user groups for this system are individuals who have moderate to severe visual aberrations for which conventional means of compensation, such as glasses or contact lenses, does not improve their vision. This research is based on a priori knowledge of the user's visual aberration, as measured by a wavefront analyzer. With this information it is possible to generate images that, when displayed to this user, will counteract his/her visual aberration. The method described in this dissertation advances the development of techniques for providing such compensation by integrating spatial information in the image as a means to eliminate some of the shortcomings inherent in using display devices such as monitors or LCD panels. Additionally, physiological considerations are discussed and integrated into the method for providing said compensation. In order to provide a realistic sense of the performance of the methods described, they were tested by mathematical simulation in software, as well as by using a single-lens high resolution CCD camera that models an aberrated eye, and finally with human subjects having various forms of visual aberrations. Experiments were conducted on these systems and the data collected from these experiments was evaluated using statistical analysis. The experimental results revealed that the pre-compensation method resulted in a statistically significant improvement in vision for all of the systems. Although significant, the improvement was not as large as expected for the human subject tests. Further analysis suggest that even under the controlled conditions employed for testing with human subjects, the characterization of the eye may be changing. This would require real-time monitoring of relevant variables (e.g. pupil diameter) and continuous adjustment in the pre-compensation process to yield maximum viewing enhancement.

Last Interglacial synthesis of high-latitude temperature: temperature anomalies and associated errors for 4 time slices

The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.

Far field of binary phase gratings with errors in the height of the strips

Diffraction gratings are not always ideal but, due to the fabrication process, several errors can be produced. In this work we show that when the strips of a binary phase diffraction grating present certain randomness in their height, the intensity of the diffraction orders varies with respect to that obtained with a perfect grating. To show this, we perform an analysis of the mutual coherence function and then, the intensity distribution at the far field is obtained. In addition to the far field diffraction orders, a "halo" that surrounds the diffraction order is found, which is due to the randomness of the strips height.

Error tolerance of topological codes with independent bit-flip and measurement errors

Topological quantum error correction codes are currently among the most promising candidates for efficiently dealing with the decoherence effects inherently present in quantum devices. Numerically, their theoretical error threshold can be calculated by mapping the underlying quantum problem to a related classical statistical-mechanical spin system with quenched disorder. Here, we present results for the general fault-tolerant regime, where we consider both qubit and measurement errors. However, unlike in previous studies, here we vary the strength of the different error sources independently. Our results highlight peculiar differences between toric and color codes. This study complements previous results published in New J. Phys. 13, 083006 (2011).

Factors driving territory size and breeding success in a threatened migratory songbird, the Canada Warbler

Successful conservation of migratory birds demands we understand how habitat factors on the breeding grounds influences breeding success. Multiple factors are known to directly influence breeding success in territorial songbirds. For example, greater food availability and fewer predators can have direct effects on breeding success. However, many of these same habitat factors can also result in higher conspecific density that may ultimately reduce breeding success through density dependence. In this case, there is a negative indirect effect of habitat on breeding success through its effects on conspecific density and territory size. Therefore, a key uncertainty facing land managers is whether important habitat attributes directly influence breeding success or indirectly influence breeding success through territory size. We used radio-telemetry, point-counts, vegetation sampling, predator observations, and insect sampling over two years to provide data on habitat selection of a steeply declining songbird species, the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis). These data were then applied in a hierarchical path modeling framework and an AIC model selection approach to determine the habitat attributes that best predict breeding success. Canada Warblers had smaller territories in areas with high shrub cover, in the presence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), at shoreline sites relative to forest-interior sites and as conspecific density increased. Breeding success was lower for birds with smaller territories, which suggests competition for limited food resources, but there was no direct evidence that food availability influenced territory size or breeding success. The negative relationship between shrub cover and territory size in our study may arise because these specific habitat conditions are spatially heterogeneous, whereby individuals pack into patches of preferred breeding habitat scattered throughout the landscape, resulting in reduced territory size and an associated reduction in resource availability per territory. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering direct and indirect effects for Canada warblers; efforts to increase the amount of breeding habitat may ultimately result in lower breeding success if habitat availability is limited and negative density dependent effects occur.

Optimizing the Correction of Memory Errors

People are always at risk of making errors when they attempt to retrieve information from memory. An important question is how to create the optimal learning conditions so that, over time, the correct information is learned and the number of mistakes declines. Feedback is a powerful tool, both for reinforcing new learning and correcting memory errors. In 5 experiments, I sought to understand the best procedures for administering feedback during learning. First, I evaluated the popular recommendation that feedback is most effective when given immediately, and I showed that this recommendation does not always hold when correcting errors made with educational materials in the classroom. Second, I asked whether immediate feedback is more effective in a particular case—when correcting false memories, or strongly-held errors that may be difficult to notice even when the learner is confronted with the feedback message. Third, I examined whether varying levels of learner motivation might help to explain cross-experimental variability in feedback timing effects: Are unmotivated learners less likely to benefit from corrective feedback, especially when it is administered at a delay? Overall, the results revealed that there is no best “one-size-fits-all” recommendation for administering feedback; the optimal procedure depends on various characteristics of learners and their errors. As a package, the data are consistent with the spacing hypothesis of feedback timing, although this theoretical account does not successfully explain all of the data in the larger literature.