874 resultados para Time-varying covariance matrices


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Dans les dernières années, les perturbateurs endocriniens ont été observés dans les rivières qui reçoivent des entrées importantes d’eaux usées. Parmi les perturbateurs endocriniens, les hormones stéroïdiennes naturelles et synthétiques sont des composés dont le potentiel d'imiter ou d'interférer avec les fonctions hormonales normales (développement, croissance et reproduction), est reconnu même au niveau ultra-traces (ng L-1). Bien que les hormones conjuguées soient moins actives que les hormones libres, elles peuvent être clivées et redevenir libres une fois exposées aux processus microbiens avant ou pendant le traitement des eaux usées. En raison de la nécessité d'identifier et de quantifier ces composés dans l'eau, une nouvelle méthode, entièrement automatisée, a été développée pour la détermination simultanée des deux formes de plusieurs hormones stéroïdiennes (conjuguées et libres) dans les matrices d'eau et dans l’urine des femmes. La méthode est basée sur l'extraction en phase solide couplée en ligne à la chromatographie liquide et la spectrométrie de masse en tandem (SPE-LC-MS/MS). Plusieurs paramètres ont été évalués dans le but d'optimiser l'efficacité de la méthode, tels que le type et le débit de la phase mobile, des différentes colonnes de SPE et de chromatographie, ainsi que différentes sources et modes d'ionisation des échantillons pour la MS. La méthode démontre une bonne linéarité (R2 > 0.993), ainsi qu'une précision avec un coefficient de variance inférieure à 10%. Les limites de quantification varient d’un minimum de 3 à 15 ng L-1 pour un volume d'injection entre 1 mL et 5 mL et le recouvrement des composés varie de 72 % à 117 %.

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The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.

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This report mainly deals with the interactive effect of different in-stock probabilities used by every individual in a supply chain. Based on a simulation for 10,000 weeks, the effects of varying in-stock probabilities are observed. Based on these observations, an individual in a supply chain can take counter measures in order to avoid stock out chances hence maintaining profits.

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In this paper, we develop a new family of graph kernels where the graph structure is probed by means of a discrete-time quantum walk. Given a pair of graphs, we let a quantum walk evolve on each graph and compute a density matrix with each walk. With the density matrices for the pair of graphs to hand, the kernel between the graphs is defined as the negative exponential of the quantum Jensen–Shannon divergence between their density matrices. In order to cope with large graph structures, we propose to construct a sparser version of the original graphs using the simplification method introduced in Qiu and Hancock (2007). To this end, we compute the minimum spanning tree over the commute time matrix of a graph. This spanning tree representation minimizes the number of edges of the original graph while preserving most of its structural information. The kernel between two graphs is then computed on their respective minimum spanning trees. We evaluate the performance of the proposed kernels on several standard graph datasets and we demonstrate their effectiveness and efficiency.

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Liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry is one of the most powerful tools in the toxicologist’s arsenal to detect a wide variety of compounds from many different matrices. However, the huge number of potentially abused substances and new substances especially designed as intoxicants poses a problem in a forensic toxicology setting. Most methods are targeted and designed to cover a very specific drug or group of drugs while many other substances remain undetected. High resolution mass spectrometry, more specifically time-of-flight mass spectrometry, represents an extremely powerful tool in analysing a multitude of compounds not only simultaneously but also retroactively. The data obtained through the time-of-flight instrument contains all compounds made available from sample extraction and chromatography, which can be processed at a later time with an improved library to detect previously unrecognised compounds without having to analyse the respective sample again. The aim of this project was to determine the utility and limitations of time-of-flight mass spectrometry as a general and easily expandable screening method. The resolution of time-of-flight mass spectrometry allows for the separation of compounds with the same nominal mass but distinct exact masses without the need to separate them chromatographically. To simulate the wide variety of potentially encountered drugs in such a general screening method, seven drugs (morphine, cocaine, zolpidem, diazepam, amphetamine, MDEA and THC) were chosen to represent this variety in terms of mass, properties and functional groups. Consequently, several liquid-liquid and solid phase extractions were applied to urine samples to determine the most general suitable and unspecific extraction. Chromatography was optimised by investigating the parameters pH, concentration, organic solvent and gradient of the mobile phase to improve data obtained by the time-of-flight instrument. The resulting method was validated as a qualitative confirmation/identification method. Data processing was automated using the software TargetAnalysis, which provides excellent analyte recognition according to retention time, exact mass and isotope pattern. The recognition of isotope patterns allows excellent recognition of analytes even in interference rich mass spectra and proved to be a good positive indicator. Finally, the validated method was applied to samples received from the A& E Department of Glasgow Royal Infirmary in suspected drug abuse cases and samples received from the Scottish Prison Service, which we received from their own prevalence study targeting drugs of abuse in the prison population. The obtained data was processed with a library established in the course of this work.

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We present some estimates of the time of convergence to the equilibrium distribution in autonomous and periodic non-autonomous graphs, with ergodic stochastic adjacency matrices, using the eigenvalues of these matrices. On this way we generalize previous results from several authors, that only considered reversible matrices.

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In this Ph.D. project, original and innovative approaches for the quali-quantitative analysis of abuse substances, as well as therapeutic agents with abuse potential and related compounds were designed, developed and validated for application to different fields such as forensics, clinical and pharmaceutical. All the parameters involved in the developed analytical workflows were properly and accurately optimised, from sample collection to sample pretreatment up to the instrumental analysis. Advanced dried blood microsampling technologies have been developed, able of bringing several advantages to the method as a whole, such as significant reduction of solvent use, feasible storage and transportation conditions and enhancement of analyte stability. At the same time, the use of capillary blood allows to increase subject compliance and overall method applicability by exploiting such innovative technologies. Both biological and non-biological samples involved in this project were subjected to optimised pretreatment techniques developed ad-hoc for each target analyte, making also use of advanced microextraction techniques. Finally, original and advanced instrumental analytical methods have been developed based on high and ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC,UHPLC) coupled to different detection means (mainly mass spectrometry, but also electrochemical, and spectrophotometric detection for screening purpose), and on attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) for solid-state analysis. Each method has been designed to obtain highly selective, sensitive yet sustainable systems and has been validated according to international guidelines. All the methods developed herein proved to be suitable for the analysis of the compounds under investigation and may be useful tools in medicinal chemistry, pharmaceutical analysis, within clinical studies and forensic investigations.

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Corynebacterium species (spp.) are among the most frequently isolated pathogens associated with subclinical mastitis in dairy cows. However, simple, fast, and reliable methods for the identification of species of the genus Corynebacterium are not currently available. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization/mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) for identifying Corynebacterium spp. isolated from the mammary glands of dairy cows. Corynebacterium spp. were isolated from milk samples via microbiological culture (n=180) and were analyzed by MALDI-TOF MS and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Using MALDI-TOF MS methodology, 161 Corynebacterium spp. isolates (89.4%) were correctly identified at the species level, whereas 12 isolates (6.7%) were identified at the genus level. Most isolates that were identified at the species level with 16 S rRNA gene sequencing were identified as Corynebacterium bovis (n=156; 86.7%) were also identified as C. bovis with MALDI-TOF MS. Five Corynebacterium spp. isolates (2.8%) were not correctly identified at the species level with MALDI-TOF MS and 2 isolates (1.1%) were considered unidentified because despite having MALDI-TOF MS scores >2, only the genus level was correctly identified. Therefore, MALDI-TOF MS could serve as an alternative method for species-level diagnoses of bovine intramammary infections caused by Corynebacterium spp.

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The Brazilian Atlantic Forest hosts one of the world's most diverse and threatened tropical forest biota. In many ways, its history of degradation describes the fate experienced by tropical forests around the world. After five centuries of human expansion, most Atlantic Forest landscapes are archipelagos of small forest fragments surrounded by open-habitat matrices. This 'natural laboratory' has contributed to a better understanding of the evolutionary history and ecology of tropical forests and to determining the extent to which this irreplaceable biota is susceptible to major human disturbances. We share some of the major findings with respect to the responses of tropical forests to human disturbances across multiple biological levels and spatial scales and discuss some of the conservation initiatives adopted in the past decade. First, we provide a short description of the Atlantic Forest biota and its historical degradation. Secondly, we offer conceptual models describing major shifts experienced by tree assemblages at local scales and discuss landscape ecological processes that can help to maintain this biota at larger scales. We also examine potential plant responses to climate change. Finally, we propose a research agenda to improve the conservation value of human-modified landscapes and safeguard the biological heritage of tropical forests.

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The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

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The use of screening techniques, such as an alternative light source (ALS), is important for finding biological evidence at a crime scene. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether biological fluid (blood, semen, saliva, and urine) deposited on different surfaces changes as a function of the age of the sample. Stains were illuminated with a Megamaxx™ ALS System and photographed with a Canon EOS Utility™ camera. Adobe Photoshop™ was utilized to prepare photographs for analysis, and then ImageJ™ was used to record the brightness values of pixels in the images. Data were submitted to analysis of variance using a generalized linear mixed model with two fixed effects (surface and fluid). Time was treated as a random effect (through repeated measures) with a first-order autoregressive covariance structure. Means of significant effects were compared by the Tukey test. The fluorescence of the analyzed biological material varied depending on the age of the sample. Fluorescence was lower when the samples were moist. Fluorescence remained constant when the sample was dry, up to the maximum period analyzed (60 days), independent of the substrate on which the fluid was deposited, showing the novelty of this study. Therefore, the forensic expert can detect biological fluids at the crime scene using an ALS even several days after a crime has occurred.

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The biofilm formation of Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium isolated from the processing of ricotta on stainless steel coupons was evaluated, and the effect of cleaning and sanitization procedures in the control of these biofilms was determined. The formation of biofilms was observed while varying the incubation temperature (7, 25 and 39°C) and time (0, 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8days). At 7°C, the counts of E. faecalis and E. faecium were below 2log10CFU/cm(2). For the temperatures of 25 and 39°C, after 1day, the counts of E. faecalis and E. faecium were 5.75 and 6.07log10CFU/cm(2), respectively, which is characteristic of biofilm formation. The tested sanitation procedures a) acid-anionic tensioactive cleaning, b) anionic tensioactive cleaning+sanitizer and c) acid-anionic tensioactive cleaning+sanitizer were effective in removing the biofilms, reducing the counts to levels below 0.4log10CFU/cm(2). The sanitizer biguanide was the least effective, and peracetic acid was the most effective. These studies revealed the ability of enterococci to form biofilms and the importance of the cleaning step and the type of sanitizer used in sanitation processes for the effective removal of biofilms.

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Several biotechnological processes can show an undesirable formation of emulsions making difficult phase separation and product recovery. The breakup of oil-in-water emulsions stabilized by yeast was studied using different physical and chemical methods. These emulsions were composed by deionized water, hexadecane and commercial yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae). The stability of the emulsions was evaluated varying the yeast concentration from 7.47 to 22.11% (w/w) and the phases obtained after gravity separation were evaluated on chemical composition, droplet size distribution, rheological behavior and optical microscopy. The cream phase showed kinetic stability attributed to mechanisms as electrostatic repulsion between the droplets, a possible Pickering-type stabilization and the viscoelastic properties of the concentrated emulsion. Oil recovery from cream phase was performed using gravity separation, centrifugation, heating and addition of demulsifier agents (alcohols and magnetic nanoparticles). Long centrifugation time and high centrifugal forces (2h/150,000×g) were necessary to obtain a complete oil recovery. The heat treatment (60°C) was not enough to promote a satisfactory oil separation. Addition of alcohols followed by centrifugation enhanced oil recovery: butanol addition allowed almost complete phase separation of the emulsion while ethanol addition resulted in 84% of oil recovery. Implementation of this method, however, would require additional steps for solvent separation. Addition of charged magnetic nanoparticles was effective by interacting electrostatically with the interface, resulting in emulsion destabilization under a magnetic field. This method reached almost 96% of oil recovery and it was potentially advantageous since no additional steps might be necessary for further purifying the recovered oil.

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In recent years, agronomical researchers began to cultivate several olive varieties in different regions of Brazil to produce virgin olive oil (VOO). Because there has been no reported data regarding the phenolic profile of the first Brazilian VOO, the aim of this work was to determine phenolic contents of these samples using rapid-resolution liquid chromatography coupled to electrospray ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry. 25 VOO samples from Arbequina, Koroneiki, Arbosana, Grappolo, Manzanilla, Coratina, Frantoio and MGS Mariense varieties from three different Brazilian states and two crops were analysed. It was possible to quantify 19 phenolic compounds belonging to different classes. The results indicated that Brazilian VOOs have high total phenolic content because the values were comparable with those from high-quality VOOs produced in other countries. VOOs from Coratina, Arbosana and Grappolo presented the highest total phenolic content. These data will be useful in the development and improvement of Brazilian VOO.

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Huntington disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder with autosomal dominant inheritance, characterized by choreiform movements and cognitive impairment. Onset of symptoms is around 40 years of age and progression to death occurs in approximately 10 to 15 years from the time of disease onset. HD is associated with an unstable CAG repeat expansion at the 5' and of the IT15 gene. We have genotyped the CAG repeat in the IT15 gene in 44 Brazilian individuals (42 patients and 2 unaffected family members) belonging to 34 unrelated families thought to segregate HD. We found one expanded CAG allele in 32 individuals (76%) belonging to 25 unrelated families. In these HD patients, expanded alleles varied from 43 to 73 CAG units and normal alleles varied from 18 to 26 CAGs. A significant negative correlation between age at onset of symptoms and size of the expanded CAG allele was found (r=0.6; p=0.0001); however, the size of the expanded CAG repeat could explain only about 40% of the variability in age at onset (r2=0.4). In addition, we genotyped 25 unrelated control individuals (total of 50 alleles) and found normal CAG repeats varying from 16 to 33 units. The percentage of heterozigocity of the normal allele in the control population was 88%. In conclusion, our results showed that not all patients with the HD phenotype carried the expansion at the IT15 gene. Furthermore, molecular diagnosis was possible in all individuals, since no alleles of intermediate size were found. Therefore, molecular confirmation of the clinical diagnosis in HD should be sought in all suspected patients, making it possible for adequate genetic counseling.