A continuous time model for election timing

We consider a continuous time model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an early election. Our model is based on the two-party-preferred data that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition over time. We describe the poll process by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and use a martingale approach to derive a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the government’s expected remaining life in office. A comparison is made between a three-year and a four-year maximum term and we also provide the exercise boundary for calling an election. Impacts on changes in parameters in the SDE, the probability of winning the election and maximum terms on the call exercise boundaries are discussed and analysed. An application of our model to the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives is also given.

Identity management : strengthening one-time password authentication through usability

Usability in HCI (Human-Computer Interaction) is normally understood as the simplicity and clarity with which the interaction with a computer program or a web site is designed. Identity management systems need to provide adequate usability and should have a simple and intuitive interface. The system should not only be designed to satisfy service provider requirements but it has to consider user requirements, otherwise it will lead to inconvenience and poor usability for users when managing their identities. With poor usability and a poor user interface with regard to security, it is highly likely that the system will have poor security. The rapid growth in the number of online services leads to an increasing number of different digital identities each user needs to manage. As a result, many people feel overloaded with credentials, which in turn negatively impacts their ability to manage them securely. Passwords are perhaps the most common type of credential used today. To avoid the tedious task of remembering difficult passwords, users often behave less securely by using low entropy and weak passwords. Weak passwords and bad password habits represent security threats to online services. Some solutions have been developed to eliminate the need for users to create and manage passwords. A typical solution is based on generating one-time passwords, i.e. passwords for single session or transaction usage. Unfortunately, most of these solutions do not satisfy scalability and/or usability requirements, or they are simply insecure. In this thesis, the security and usability aspects of contemporary methods for authentication based on one-time passwords (OTP) are examined and analyzed. In addition, more scalable solutions that provide a good user experience while at the same time preserving strong security are proposed.

Novel numerical methods for time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions

We consider time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions. This equation is obtained from the standard reaction diffusion equation by replacing the first order time derivative with the Caputo fractional derivative, and the second order space derivatives with the fractional Laplacian. Using the matrix transfer technique proposed by Ilic, Liu, Turner and Anh [Fract. Calc. Appl. Anal., 9:333--349, 2006] and the numerical solution strategy used by Yang, Turner, Liu, and Ilic [SIAM J. Scientific Computing, 33:1159--1180, 2011], the solution of the time-space fractional reaction diffusion equations in two dimensions can be written in terms of a matrix function vector product $f(A)b$ at each time step, where $A$ is an approximate matrix representation of the standard Laplacian. We use the finite volume method over unstructured triangular meshes to generate the matrix $A$, which is therefore non-symmetric. However, the standard Lanczos method for approximating $f(A)b$ requires that $A$ is symmetric. We propose a simple and novel transformation in which the standard Lanczos method is still applicable to find $f(A)b$, despite the loss of symmetry. Numerical results are presented to verify the accuracy and efficiency of our newly proposed numerical solution strategy.

Arterial travel time estimation : revisiting the classical procedure

Travel time is an important network performance measure and it quantifies congestion in a manner easily understood by all transport users. In urban networks, travel time estimation is challenging due to number of reasons such as, fluctuations in traffic flow due to traffic signals, significant flow to/from mid link sinks/sources, etc. The classical analytical procedure utilizes cumulative plots at upstream and downstream locations for estimating travel time between the two locations. In this paper, we discuss about the issues and challenges with classical analytical procedure such as its vulnerability to non conservation of flow between the two locations. The complexity with respect to exit movement specific travel time is discussed. Recently, we have developed a methodology utilising classical procedure to estimate average travel time and its statistic on urban links (Bhaskar, Chung et al. 2010). Where, detector, signal and probe vehicle data is fused. In this paper we extend the methodology for route travel time estimation and test its performance using simulation. The originality is defining cumulative plots for each exit turning movement utilising historical database which is self updated after each estimation. The performance is also compared with a method solely based on probe (Probe-only). The performance of the proposed methodology has been found insensitive to different route flow, with average accuracy of more than 94% given a probe per estimation interval which is more than 5% increment in accuracy with respect to Probe-only method.

Use of precision time protocol to synchronize sampled value process buses

Transmission smart grids will use a digital platform for the automation of high voltage substations. The IEC 61850 series of standards, released in parts over the last ten years, provide a specification for substation communications networks and systems. These standards, along with IEEE Std 1588-2008 Precision Time Protocol version 2 (PTPv2) for precision timing, are recommended by the both IEC Smart Grid Strategy Group and the NIST Framework and Roadmap for Smart Grid Interoperability Standards for substation automation. IEC 61850, PTPv2 and Ethernet are three complementary protocol families that together define the future of sampled value digital process connections for smart substation automation. A time synchronisation system is required for a sampled value process bus, however the details are not defined in IEC 61850-9-2. PTPv2 provides the greatest accuracy of network based time transfer systems, with timing errors of less than 100 ns achievable. The suitability of PTPv2 to synchronise sampling in a digital process bus is evaluated, with preliminary results indicating that steady state performance of low cost clocks is an acceptable ±300 ns, but that corrections issued by grandmaster clocks can introduce significant transients. Extremely stable grandmaster oscillators are required to ensure any corrections are sufficiently small that time synchronising performance is not degraded.

Fixing the city one photo at a time : mobile logging of maintenance requests

We have designed a mobile application that takes advantage of the built-in features of smart phones such as camera and GPS that allow users to take geo-tagged photos while on the move. Urban residents can take pictures of broken street furniture and public property requiring repair, attach a brief description, and submit the information as a maintenance request to the local government organisation of their city. This paper discusses the design approach that led to the application, highlights a built-in mechanism to elicit user feedback, and evaluates the progress to date with user feedback and log statistics. It concludes with an outlook highlighting user requested features and our own design aspirations for moving from a reporting tool to a civic engagement tool.

An infinite-horizon robust filter for uncertain hidden Markov Models with conditional relative entropy constraints

We consider a robust filtering problem for uncertain discrete-time, homogeneous, first-order, finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). The class of uncertain HMMs considered is described by a conditional relative entropy constraint on measures perturbed from a nominal regular conditional probability distribution given the previous posterior state distribution and the latest measurement. Under this class of perturbations, a robust infinite horizon filtering problem is first formulated as a constrained optimization problem before being transformed via variational results into an unconstrained optimization problem; the latter can be elegantly solved using a risk-sensitive information-state based filtering.

Which older women could benefit from interventions to decrease sitting time and increase physical activity?

In addition to the well-known health risks associated with lack of physical activity (PA), evidence is emerging about the health risks of sedentary behaviour (sitting). Research about patterns and correlates of sitting and PA in older women is scarce. METHODS: Self-report data from 6,116 women aged 76-81 years were collected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Woman’s Health. Linear regression models were computed to examine whether demographic, social and health factors were associated with sitting and PA. RESULTS: Women who did no PA sat more than women who did any PA (p<0.001). Seven correlates were associated with sitting and PA (p<0.05). Five of these were associated with more sitting and less PA: three health-related (BMI, chronic conditions, anxiety/depression) and two social correlates (caring duties, volunteering). One demographic (being from another English-speaking country) and one social correlate (more social interaction) were associated with more sitting and more PA. Four correlates, two demographic (living in a city; post-high school education), one social (being single), and one health-related correlate (dizziness/loss of balance) were associated with more sitting only. Two other health-related correlates (stiff/painful joints; feet problems) were associated with less PA only. CONCLUSION: Sedentary behaviour and PA are distinct behaviours in older Australian women. Information about the correlates of both behaviours can be used to identify population groups who might benefit from interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour and/or increase PA.

A conditional retransmission enabled transport protocol for real-time networked control systems

Real-time networked control systems (NCSs) over data networks are being increasingly implemented on a massive scale in industrial applications. Along with this trend, wireless network technologies have been promoted for modern wireless NCSs (WNCSs). However, popular wireless network standards such as IEEE 802.11/15/16 are not designed for real-time communications. Key issues in real-time applications include limited transmission reliability and poor transmission delay performance. Considering the unique features of real-time control systems, this paper develops a conditional retransmission enabled transport protocol (CRETP) to improve the delay performance of the transmission control protocol (TCP) and also the reliability performance of the user datagram protocol (UDP) and its variants. Key features of the CRETP include a connectionless mechanism with acknowledgement (ACK), conditional retransmission and detection of ineffective data packets on the receiver side.

Modelling and performance evaluation of the IEEE 802.11 DCF for real-time control

Popular wireless networks, such as IEEE 802.11/15/16, are not designed for real-time applications. Thus, supporting real-time quality of service (QoS) in wireless real-time control is challenging. This paper adopts the widely used IEEE 802.11, with the focus on its distributed coordination function (DCF), for soft-real-time control systems. The concept of the critical real-time traffic condition is introduced to characterize the marginal satisfaction of real-time requirements. Then, mathematical models are developed to describe the dynamics of DCF based real-time control networks with periodic traffic, a unique feature of control systems. Performance indices such as throughput and packet delay are evaluated using the developed models, particularly under the critical real-time traffic condition. Finally, the proposed modelling is applied to traffic rate control for cross-layer networked control system design.

Planning of distribution networks for medium voltage and low voltage

Determination of the placement and rating of transformers and feeders are the main objective of the basic distribution network planning. The bus voltage and the feeder current are two constraints which should be maintained within their standard range. The distribution network planning is hardened when the planning area is located far from the sources of power generation and the infrastructure. This is mainly as a consequence of the voltage drop, line loss and system reliability. Long distance to supply loads causes a significant amount of voltage drop across the distribution lines. Capacitors and Voltage Regulators (VRs) can be installed to decrease the voltage drop. This long distance also increases the probability of occurrence of a failure. This high probability leads the network reliability to be low. Cross-Connections (CC) and Distributed Generators (DGs) are devices which can be employed for improving system reliability. Another main factor which should be considered in planning of distribution networks (in both rural and urban areas) is load growth. For supporting this factor, transformers and feeders are conventionally upgraded which applies a large cost. Installation of DGs and capacitors in a distribution network can alleviate this issue while the other benefits are gained. In this research, a comprehensive planning is presented for the distribution networks. Since the distribution network is composed of low and medium voltage networks, both are included in this procedure. However, the main focus of this research is on the medium voltage network planning. The main objective is to minimize the investment cost, the line loss, and the reliability indices for a study timeframe and to support load growth. The investment cost is related to the distribution network elements such as the transformers, feeders, capacitors, VRs, CCs, and DGs. The voltage drop and the feeder current as the constraints are maintained within their standard range. In addition to minimizing the reliability and line loss costs, the planned network should support a continual growth of loads, which is an essential concern in planning distribution networks. In this thesis, a novel segmentation-based strategy is proposed for including this factor. Using this strategy, the computation time is significantly reduced compared with the exhaustive search method as the accuracy is still acceptable. In addition to being applicable for considering the load growth, this strategy is appropriate for inclusion of practical load characteristic (dynamic), as demonstrated in this thesis. The allocation and sizing problem has a discrete nature with several local minima. This highlights the importance of selecting a proper optimization method. Modified discrete particle swarm optimization as a heuristic method is introduced in this research to solve this complex planning problem. Discrete nonlinear programming and genetic algorithm as an analytical and a heuristic method respectively are also applied to this problem to evaluate the proposed optimization method.

A review of optimization techniques used in the design of fibre composite structures for civil engineering applications

Fibre composite structures have become the most attractive candidate for civil engineering applications. Fibre reinforced plastic polymer (FRP) composite materials have been used in the rehabilitation and replacement of the old degrading traditional structures or build new structures. However, the lack of design standards for civil infrastructure limits their structural applications. The majority of the existing applications have been designed based on the research and guidelines provided by the fibre composite manufacturers or based on the designer’s experience. It has been a tendency that the final structure is generally over-designed. This paper provides a review on the available studies related to the design optimization of fibre composite structures used in civil engineering such as; plate, beam, box beam, sandwich panel, bridge girder, and bridge deck. Various optimization methods are presented and compared. In addition, the importance of using the appropriate optimization technique is discussed. An improved methodology, which considering experimental testing, numerical modelling, and design constrains, is proposed in the paper for design optimization of composite structures.

Development of an autonomous unmanned aerial system to collect time-stamped samples from the atmosphere and localize potential pathogen sources

This paper presents the hardware development and testing of a new concept for air sampling via the integration of a prototype spore trap onboard an unmanned aerial system (UAS).We propose the integration of a prototype spore trap onboard a UAS to allow multiple capture of spores of pathogens in single remote locations at high or low altitude, otherwise not possible with stationary sampling devices.We also demonstrate the capability of this system for the capture of multiple time-stamped samples during a single mission.Wind tunnel testing was followed by simulation, and flight testing was conducted to measure and quantify the spread during simulated airborne air sampling operations. During autonomous operations, the onboard autopilot commands the servo to rotate the sampling device to a new indexed location once the UAS vehicle reaches the predefined waypoint or set of waypoints (which represents the region of interest). Time-stamped UAS data are continuously logged during the flight to assist with analysis of the particles collected. Testing and validation of the autopilot and spore trap integration, functionality, and performance is described. These tools may enhance the ability to detect new incursions of spores

An advanced meshless method for time fractional diffusion equation

Recently, because of the new developments in sustainable engineering and renewable energy, which are usually governed by a series of fractional partial differential equations (FPDEs), the numerical modelling and simulation for fractional calculus are attracting more and more attention from researchers. The current dominant numerical method for modeling FPDE is Finite Difference Method (FDM), which is based on a pre-defined grid leading to inherited issues or shortcomings including difficulty in simulation of problems with the complex problem domain and in using irregularly distributed nodes. Because of its distinguished advantages, the meshless method has good potential in simulation of FPDEs. This paper aims to develop an implicit meshless collocation technique for FPDE. The discrete system of FPDEs is obtained by using the meshless shape functions and the meshless collocation formulation. The stability and convergence of this meshless approach are investigated theoretically and numerically. The numerical examples with regular and irregular nodal distributions are used to validate and investigate accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed meshless formulation. It is concluded that the present meshless formulation is very effective for the modeling and simulation of fractional partial differential equations.

Creating new narratives through shared time and space : the performer/audience connection in multi-site dance events

Site-specific performance provides choices in audience experience via degrees of scale, proximity, levels of immersion and viewing perspectives. Beyond these choices, multi-site promenade events also form a connected audience/performer relationship in which moving together in time and space can produce a shared narrative and aesthetic sensibility of collective, yet individuated and shifting meanings. This paper interrogates this notion through audience/performer experiences in two separate multi-site, dance-led events. here/there/then/now occurred in four intimate sites within the Brisbane Powerhouse, providing a theatricalised platform for audiences to create linked narratives through open-ended and fragmented intertextuality. Accented Body, based on the concept of “the body as site and in site” and notions of connectivity, provided a more expansive platform for a similar, but heightened, shared engagement. Audiences traversed 6 outdoor and 2 indoor Brisbane sites moving to varying levels of a large complex. Eleven, predominantly interactive, screens provided links to other sites as well as to distributed presences in Seoul and London. The differentiation in scale and travel time between sites deepened the immersive experiences of audiences who reported transformative engagements with both site and architecture, accompanied by a sense of extended and yet quickened time.