A coupled ocean-atmosphere system for short term forecasting in the southern european seas

This coupled model combines two state-of-the-art numerical models, NEMO for the oceanic component and WRF for the atmospheric component and implements them at an appropriate resolution. The oceanic model has been implemented starting from the Mediterranean Forecasting System with a resolution of 1/24° and the domain was extended to exactly match the grid of a newly implemented atmospheric model for the same area. The uncoupled ocean model has been validated against SST observed data, both in the simulation of an extreme event and in the short-term forecast of two seasonal periods. A new setup of the model was successfully tested in which the downward radiative fluxes were prescribed from atmospheric forecasts. Various physical schemes, domain, boundary, and initial conditions were tested with the atmospheric model to obtain the best representation of medicane Ianos. The heat fluxes calculated by the uncoupled models were compared to determine which setup gave the best energy balance between the components of the coupled model. The coupling strategy used is the traditional one, where the ocean is driven by the surface stress, heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes computed in the atmospheric component, which in turn receives the SST and surface currents. As expected, the overall skills of the coupled model are slightly degraded compared to the uncoupled models, even though the positioning and timing of the cyclone at the time of the landfall is enhanced. The mean heat fluxes do not change compared to the uncoupled model, whereas the pattern of the shortwave radiation and latent heat is changed. Moreover, the two energy fluxes are larger in absolute values than those calculated with the MFS formulas. The fact that they have opposite signs give raise to a compensation error that limits the overall degradation of the coupled simulation.

Numerical modeling on the short-term response of fiber-reinforced concrete round panels

Fiber-reinforced concrete is a composite material consisting of discrete, discontinuous, and uniformly distributed fibers in plain concrete primarily used to enhance the tensile properties of the concrete. FRC performance depends upon the fiber, interface, and matrix properties. The use of fiber-reinforced concrete has been increasing substantially in the past few years in different fields of the construction industry such as ground-level application in sidewalks and building floors, tunnel lining, aircraft parking, runways, slope stabilization, etc. Many experiments have been performed to observe the short-term and long-term mechanical behavior of fiber-reinforced concrete in the last decade and numerous numerical models have been formulated to accurately capture the response of fiber-reinforced concrete. The main purpose of this dissertation is to numerically calibrate the short-term response of the concrete and fiber parameters in mesoscale for the three-point bending test and cube compression test in the MARS framework which is based on the lattice discrete particle model (LDPM) and later validate the same parameters for the round panels. LDPM is the most validated theory in mesoscale theories for concrete. Different seeds representing the different orientations of concrete and fiber particles are simulated to produce the mean numerical response. The result of numerical simulation shows that the lattice discrete particle model for fiber-reinforced concrete can capture results of experimental tests on the behavior of fiber-reinforced concrete to a great extent.

Brazilian external sector so far in the 21st century

Although Brazil has traditionally been characterized by a culture of inward-looking policy making, the presence of foreign firms in the Brazilian productive sector has always been significant. The share of foreign-owned firms is one of the highest that can be found among developing countries. This article discusses the main features of the external sector of the Brazilian economy, regarding trade flows, foreign investment, the internationalization of Brazilian entrepreneurial groups and the short-term financial requirements in foreign currencies

Suorituskyvyn mittaaminen rakennusteollisuudessa

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli rakentaa rakennusteollisuuteen sopiva suorituskyvyn analysointijärjestelmä. Järjestelmä on koko yrityksen kattava ja tasapainoinen. Tällöin voidaan paremmin saavuttaa yritystoiminnan perimmäinen tarkoitus eli kannattava liiketoiminta sekä taata yrityksen taloudelliset toimintaedellytykset, niin pitkällä kuin lyhyelläkin aikavälillä. Työ oli toimintatutkimus, mikä on reaalimaailmaa koskeva empiirinen tutkimus, joka konstruoi uutta todellisuutta. Toimintatutkimukselle on tyypillistä, että se suuntautuu käytäntöihin, pyrkii muutokseen ja tutkittavat osallistuvat tutkimusprosessiin. Aluksi käytiin läpi suorituskyvyn mittaamiseen liittyvää teoriaa. Sen jälkeen aloitettiin itse järjestelmän suunnittelu pohtimalla yrityksen visiota, strategiaa ja menestystekijöitä huomioiden rakennusteollisuuden erityispiirteet. Näiden pohjalta valittiin mitattavat osa-alueet sekä niihin liittyvät mittarit. Suorituskyvyn analysointijärjestelmän toteutuksen lisäksi havaittiin, että järjestelmän rakentaminen itsessään oli yritykselle erinomainen oppimisprosessi, joka avasi uusia näkökulmia sekä yrityksen toiminnan että henkilöstön kehittämiseen.

Budjetointikäytännöt ja niiden kehittäminen vakuutusalalla

Budjetoinnin toimivuus jäykkänä suunnitteluprosessina kyseenalaistetaan tämän päivän nopeasti muuttuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Lisäksi sen merkitys johtamisen välineenä on ristiriitainen, eikä se välttämättä palvele strategisia tavoitteita. Perinteistä budjetointia kritisoivat tahot ovat kehittäneet uusia budjetointimenetelmiä, kuten toimintopohjaisen budjetoinnin ja Beyond budgeting -menetelmän. Tutkimuksessa haastateltiin kolmea vakuutusyhtiötä, tavoitteena on selvittää budjetoinnin merkitys vakuutusyhtiön talouden suunnittelussa ja kartoittaa kehitystarpeita taloussuunittelun toteuttamiselle ottaen huomioon toimialan erityispiirteet ja vaatimukset sekä ulkoinen toimintaympäristö. Tutkitut vakuutusyhtiöt kokivat käyttämänsä perinteisen vuosibudjetoinnin hyvänä taloussuunnittelun välineenä. Säätelyn kohteena olevilta vakuutusyhtiöiltä vaadi-taan tarkkaa pitkän tähtäimen talouden suunnittelua. Ulkoinen toimintaympäristö on ollut viime vuodet vakaa mahdollistaen taloussuunnittelun onnistumisen perinteisen vuosibudjetin keinoin.  

Um ensaio em gestão de capital de giro em micros e pequenas empresas

Este estudo investiga as diferenças na maneira como gestores administram o capital de giro nas micro e pequenas empresas. As contribuições derivadas deste estudo ampliam a literatura financeira de curto prazo em MPEs no sentido de se compreender como os itens relacionados ao construto de capital de giro se comportam numa economia emergente, com fricções de mercado severas e mutáveis e com nível de desenvolvimento financeiro distinto. Os diferentes estilos de gestão podem ocorrer em razão do impacto do desenvolvimento e profundidade do mercado financeiro e do acesso e da oferta de trade credit. Os fatores determinantes desses estilos de condução da gestão do capital de giro em micro e pequenas empresas (MPEs) são identificados e, explicados, à luz dos fundamentos das teorias de crescimento das firmas por estágios, da visão baseada em recursos, de crédito comercial, de agência e de custos de transação. Esta é uma pesquisa mista com investigação cross-section, em três etapas. Ela foi composta por um survey e por entrevistas. Os dados obtidos por meio de um survey com dirigentes de 447 MPEs dos estados de Minas Gerais e São Paulo foram analisados por técnicas multivariadas, tendo sido identificados quatro “estilos” de gestão de capital de giro, que podem ser explicados por variáveis como idade, tamanho e lucratividade da firma e as entrevistas pela análise de conteúdo. A base de dados foi tratada com técnicas multivariadas e modelagem com equações estruturais. Os resultados sugerem que dirigentes brasileiros são mais propensos a adotar controle financeiro que os dirigentes britânicos e que gestão de crédito afeta positivamente a gestão de estoque quando mediada por fundos internos. Os resultados foram comparados aos obtidos por pesquisa similar realizada com empresas do Reino Unido (Howorth e Westhead, 2003), e a evidência mostra diferenças importantes: 1) as empresas brasileiras revisam a maioria das rotinas de capital de giro com maior frequência que as britânicas; 2) as MPEs brasileiras ofertam e demandam menos crédito comercial que as britânicas. Essas diferenças podem ser explicadas, pelo menos em parte, pelo maior custo do financiamento bancário das firmas brasileiras em comparação às britânicas.

Brazilian external sector so far in the XXIst century

Policies towards the external sector have maintained their basic characteristics since the beginning of the present decade, although emphasis has been given to some specific aspects. Little doubt remains that the positive outcome - at least until recently – has been clearly a result of the country having profited from very favorable circumstances in the international scenario. This article discusses the main features of the external sector of the Brazilian economy, regarding trade flows, foreign investment, the internationalization of Brazilian entrepreneurial groups and the short-term financial requirements in foreign currencies.

Alocação otimizada de bancos de capacitores em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica através de metaheurísticas multiobjetivo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Um modelo de unit commitment hidrotérmico para o ambiente de mercados de energia

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelos de programação linear inteira mista para resolver problemas de otimização de sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica radiais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Ending uncertainty: recapitalisation under European Central Bank supervision. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2013/18, 17 December 2013

Estimates of the recapitalisation needs of the euro-area banking system vary between €50 and €600 billion. The range shows the considerable uncertainty about the quality of banks’ balance sheets and about the parameters of the forthcoming European Central Bank stress tests, including the treatment of sovereign debt and systemic risk. Uncertainty also prevails about the rules and discretion that will applyto bank recapitalisation, bank restructuring and bank resolution in 2014 and beyond. The ECB should communicate the relevant parameters of its exercise early and in detail to give time to the private sector to find solutions. The ECB should establish itself as a tough supervisor and force non-viable banks into restructuring. This could lead to short-term financial volatility, but it should be weighed against the cost of a durably weak banking system and the credibility risk to the ECB. The ECB may need to provide large amounts of liquidity to the financial system. Governments should support the ECB, accept cross-border bank mergers and substantial creditor involvement under clear bail-in rules and should be prepared to recapitalise banks. Governments should agree on the eventual creation of a single resolution mechanism with efficient and fast decision-making procedures, and which can exercise discretion where necessary. A resolution fund, even when fully built-up, needs to have a common fiscal backstop to be credible.

Progress and Research in Cybersecurity - Supporting a resilient and trustworthy system for the UK

Executive summary
Digital systems have transformed, and will continue to transform, our world. Supportive government policy, a strong research base and a history of industrial success make the UK particularly well-placed to realise the benefits of the emerging digital society. These benefits have already been substantial, but they remain at risk. Protecting the benefits and minimising the risks requires reliable and robust cybersecurity, underpinned by a strong research and translation system.
Trust is essential for growing and maintaining participation in the digital society. Organisations earn trust by acting in a trustworthy manner: building systems that are reliable and secure, treating people, their privacy and their data with respect, and providing credible and comprehensible information to help people understand how secure they are.
Resilience, the ability to function, adapt, grow, learn and transform under stress or in the face of shocks, will help organisations deliver systems that are reliable and secure. Resilient organisations can better protect their customers, provide more useful products and services, and earn people’s trust.
Research and innovation in industry and academia will continue to make important contributions to creating this resilient and trusted digital environment. Research can illuminate how best to build, assess and improve digital systems, integrating insights from different disciplines, sectors and around the globe. It can also generate advances to help cybersecurity keep up with the continued evolution of cyber risks.
Translation of innovative ideas and approaches from research will create a strong supply of reliable, proven solutions to difficult to predict cybersecurity risks. This is best achieved by maximising the diversity and number of innovations that see the light of day as products.
Policy, practice and research will all need to adapt. The recommendations made in this report seek to set up a trustworthy, self-improving and resilient digital environment that can thrive in the face of unanticipated threats, and earn the trust people place in it.
Innovation and research will be particularly important to the UK’s economy as it establishes a new relationship with the EU. Cybersecurity delivers important economic benefits, both by underpinning the digital foundations of UK business and trade and also through innovation that feeds directly into growth. The findings of this report will be relevant regardless of how the UK’s relationship to the EU changes.
Headline recommendations
● Trust: Governments must commit to preserving the robustness of encryption, including end-to-end encryption, and promoting its widespread use. Encryption is a foundational security technology that is needed to build user trust, improve security standards and fully realise the benefits of digital systems.
● Resilience: Government should commission an independent review of the UK’s future cybersecurity needs, focused on the institutional structures needed to support resilient and trustworthy digital systems in the medium and longer term. A self-improving, resilient digital environment will need to be guided and governed by institutions that are transparent, expert and have a clear and widely-understood remit.
● Research: A step change in cybersecurity research and practice should be pursued; it will require a new approach to research, focused on identifying ambitious high-level goals and enabling excellent researchers to pursue those ambitions. This would build on the UK's existing strengths in many aspects of cybersecurity research and ultimately help build a resilient and trusted digital sector based on excellent research and world-class expertise.
● Translation: The UK should promote a free and unencumbered flow of cybersecurity ideas from research to practical use and support approaches that have public benefits beyond their short term financial return. The unanticipated nature of future cyber threats means that a diverse set of cybersecurity ideas and approaches will be needed to build resilience and adaptivity. Many of the most valuable ideas will have broad security benefits for the public, beyond any direct financial returns.

Agency theory and the family business

The conceptual domain of agency theory is one of the dominant organisational theory perspectives applied in current family business research (Chrisman et al., 2010). According to agency theory (Jensen and Meckling, 1976), agency costs generally arise due to individuals’ selfinterest and decision making based on rational thinking and oriented toward own preferences. With more people involved in decision making, such as through the separation of ownership and management, agency costs occur due to different preferences and information asymmetries between the owner (principal) and the employed management (agent) (Jensen and Meckling, 1976). In other words, agents take decisions based on their individual preferences (for example, short term, financial gains) instead of the owners’ preferences (for example, long term, sustainable development).

An Integrated Work Force Planning Strategy For The Health Services 2009 - 2012

Workforce planning identifies the composition of the workforce required to deliver health service goals. It encompasses a range of human resource activities aimed at the short, medium and long-term. Workforce planning that is integrated with service and financial planning offers the best opportunity for linking human resource decisions to the strategic goals for the health services. Systems and structures are required to support and develop workforce planning activities

An interpretive approach to analysing the role and value of information systems in Jordanian financial organisations

Analysing investments in ISs in order to maximise benefits has become a prime concern, especially for private corporations. No formula of equilibrium exists that could link the injected amounts and accrued returns. The relationship is simply not straightforward. This thesis is based upon empirical work which involved sketching organisational ethnographies (four organographies and a sectography) into the role and value of information systems in Jordanian financial organisations. Besides deciphering the map of impacts, it explains the attributions of the variations in the impacts of ISs which were found to be related to the internal organisational processes: culturally and politically specific considerations, economically or technically rooted factors and environmental factors. The research serves as an empirical attempt to test out the applicability of adopting the interpretive paradigm to researching organisations in a developing country. The fieldwork comprised an exploratory stage, a detailed investigation of four case studies and a survey stage encompassing 16 organisations. Primary and secondary data were collected from multiple sources using a range of instruments. The evidence highlights the fact that little long term strategic planning was pursued; the emphasis was more focused on short term planning. There was no noticeable adoption of any strategic fit principle linking IS strategy to the corporate strategy. In addition, the benefits obtained were mostly intangible. Although ISs were central to the work of the organisations surveyed as the core technology, they were considered as tools or work enablers rather than weapons for competitive rivalry. The cultural specificity of IS impacts was evident and the cultural and political considerations were key factors in explaining the attributions of the variations in the impacts of ISs in JFOs. The thesis confirms that measuring the benefits of ISs is the problematic. However, in order to gain more insight, the phenomenon of "the use of ISs" has to be studied within its context.