Essays on regulation and risk

In this thesis, we investigate some aspects of the interplay between economic regulation and the risk of the regulated firm. In the first chapter, the main goal is to understand the implications a mainstream regulatory model (Laffont and Tirole, 1993) have on the systematic risk of the firm. We generalize the model in order to incorporate aggregate risk, and find that the optimal regulatory contract must be severely constrained in order to reproduce real-world systematic risk levels. We also consider the optimal profit-sharing mechanism, with an endogenous sharing rate, to explore the relationship between contract power and beta. We find results compatible with the available evidence that high-powered regimes impose more risk to the firm. In the second chapter, a joint work with Daniel Lima from the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), we start from the observation that regulated firms are subject to some regulatory practices that potentially affect the symmetry of the distribution of their future profits. If these practices are anticipated by investors in the stock market, the pattern of asymmetry in the empirical distribution of stock returns may differ among regulated and non-regulated companies. We review some recently proposed asymmetry measures that are robust to the empirical regularities of return data and use them to investigate whether there are meaningful differences in the distribution of asymmetry between these two groups of companies. In the third and last chapter, three different approaches to the capital asset pricing model of Kraus and Litzenberger (1976) are tested with recent Brazilian data and estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) as a unifying procedure. We find that ex-post stock returns generally exhibit statistically significant coskewness with the market portfolio, and hence are sensitive to squared market returns. However, while the theoretical ground for the preference for skewness is well established and fairly intuitive, we did not find supporting evidence that investors require a premium for supporting this risk factor in Brazil.

Demand aggregation and credit risk effects in pooled procurement: evidence from the Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Pooled procurement has an important role in reducing acquisition prices of goods. A pool of buyers, which aggregates demand for its members, increases bargaining power and allows suppliers to achieve economies of scale and scope in the production. Such aggregation demand e ect lowers prices paid for buyers. However, when a buyer with a good reputation for paying suppliers in a timely manner is joined in the pool by a buyer with bad reputation may have its price paid increased due to the credit risk e ect on prices. This will happen because prices paid in a pooled procurement should refect the (higher) average buyers' credit risk. Using a data set on Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, we nd evidence supporting both e ects. We show that the prices paid by public bodies in Brazil are lower when they buy through pooled procurement than individually. On the other hand, federal agencies (i.e. good buyers) pay higher prices for products when they are joined by state agencies (i.e. bad buyers) in a pool. Such evidence suggests that pooled procurement should be carefully designed to avoid that prices paid increase for its members.

Internationalization of SME and entry mode choice in Brazil: the case study of Ameco, a French SME

O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar, para uma PME francesa, a atratividade de dois mercados-alvo no Brasil, a fim de apoiar a tomada de decisão do CEO sobre o investimento futuro. Para enfrentar a crise da União Europeia, muitas PMEs francesas estão procurando novas oportunidades em todo o mundo, especialmente nos países BRIC. Na verdade, o Brasil parece ser um mercado promissor, oferecendo inúmeras oportunidades de crescimento. No entanto, em comparação com as empresas multinacionais tradicionais, as PMEs têm de lidar com a falta de recursos e de poder de mercado. Ir global é arriscado e caro para as PMEs; o que implica avaliar cuidadosamente a viabilidade da implementação de um investimento estrangeiro. A análise revelou que o Brasil é um mercado de aproximadamente 30 milhões de euros, nos próximos 10 anos. Este é definitivamente um mercado promissor para uma empresa como AMECO. Levando em conta esses critérios, AMECO deve abrir um escritório de representação no próximo ano para angariar novos clientes e assinar novos contratos.

Growing research where economies grow: essays on strategy and international expansion of companies from emerging countries

In recent years, emerging countries have assumed an increasingly prominent position in the world economy, as growth has picked up in these countries and slowed in developed economies. Two related phenomena, among others, can be associated with this growth: emerging countries were less affected by the 2008-2009 global economic recession; and they increased their participation in foreign direct investment, both inflows and outflows. This doctoral dissertation contributes to research on firms from emerging countries through four independent papers. The first group of two papers examines firm strategy in recessionary moments and uses Brazil, one of the largest emerging countries, as setting for the investigation. Data were collected through a survey on Brazilian firms referring to the 2008-2009 global recession, and 17 hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling based on partial least squares. Paper 1 offered an integrative model linking RBV to literatures on entrepreneurship, improvisation, and flexibility to indicate the characteristics and capabilities that allow a firm to have superior performance in recessions. We found that firms that pre-recession have a propensity to recognize opportunities and improvisation capabilities for fast and creative actions have superior performance in recessions. We also found that entrepreneurial orientation and flexibility have indirect effects. Paper 2 built on business cycle literature to study which strategies - pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical – enable superior performance in recessions. We found that while most firms pro-cyclically reduce costs and investments during recessions, a counter-cyclical strategy of investing in opportunities created by changes in the environment enables superior performance. Most successful are firms with a propensity to recognize opportunities, entrepreneurial orientation to invest, and flexibility to efficiently implement these investments. The second group of two papers investigated international expansion of multinational enterprises, particularly the use of distance for their location decisions. Paper 3 proposed a conceptual framework to examine circumstances under which distance is less important for international location decisions, taking the new perspective of economic institutional distance as theoretical foundation. The framework indicated that the general preference for low-distance countries is lower: (1) when the company is state owned, rather than private owned; (2) when its internationalization motives are asset, resource, or efficiency seeking, as opposed to market seeking; and (3) when internationalization occurred after globalization and the advent of new technologies. Paper 4 compared five concurrent perspectives of distance and indicated their suitability to the study of various issues based on industry, ownership, and type, motive, and timing of internationalization. The paper also proposed that distance represents the disadvantages of host countries for international location decisions; as such, it should be used in conjunction with factors that represent host country attractiveness, or advantages as international locations. In conjunction, papers 3 and 4 provided additional, alternative explanations for the mixed empirical results of current research on distance. Moreover, the studies shed light into the discussion of differences between multinational enterprises from emerging countries versus those from advanced countries.

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Foreign support, internal political disputes and mass killings

This paper studies the incentives underlying the relations between foreign countries and rival domestic groups. It models the interaction in a infinitely-repeated game between these three players. The domestic groups bargain for a split of the domestic surplus and may engage in violent dispute for power and in unilateral mass killing processes. The foreign country may choose to support one of these groups in exchange for monetary transfers. The paper characterizes the parametric set in which strategies leading to no violent disputes nor mass killings are Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibra in the presence of foreign support, but not in its absence.

Using Neo4J geospatial data storage and integration

Online geographic-databases have been growing increasingly as they have become a crucial source of information for both social networks and safety-critical systems. Since the quality of such applications is largely related to the richness and completeness of their data, it becomes imperative to develop adaptable and persistent storage systems, able to make use of several sources of information as well as enabling the fastest possible response from them. This work will create a shared and extensible geographic model, able to retrieve and store information from the major spatial sources available. A geographic-based system also has very high requirements in terms of scalability, computational power and domain complexity, causing several difficulties for a traditional relational database as the number of results increases. NoSQL systems provide valuable advantages for this scenario, in particular graph databases which are capable of modeling vast amounts of inter-connected data while providing a very substantial increase of performance for several spatial requests, such as finding shortestpath routes and performing relationship lookups with high concurrency. In this work, we will analyze the current state of geographic information systems and develop a unified geographic model, named GeoPlace Explorer (GE). GE is able to import and store spatial data from several online sources at a symbolic level in both a relational and a graph databases, where several stress tests were performed in order to find the advantages and disadvantages of each database paradigm.

Modelagem e medições de ondas de rádio para predição de perda de propagação em ambientes urbanos

In this dissertation new models of propagation path loss predictions are proposed by from techniques of optimization recent and measures of power levels for the urban and suburban areas of Natal, city of Brazilian northeast. These new proposed models are: (i) a statistical model that was implemented based in the addition of second-order statistics for the power and the altimetry of the relief in model of linear losses; (ii) a artificial neural networks model used the training of the algorithm backpropagation, in order to get the equation of propagation losses; (iii) a model based on the technique of the random walker, that considers the random of the absorption and the chaos of the environment and than its unknown parameters for the equation of propagation losses are determined through of a neural network. The digitalization of the relief for the urban and suburban areas of Natal were carried through of the development of specific computational programs and had been used available maps in the Statistics and Geography Brazilian Institute. The validations of the proposed propagation models had been carried through comparisons with measures and propagation classic models, and numerical good agreements were observed. These new considered models could be applied to any urban and suburban scenes with characteristic similar architectural to the city of Natal

The influence of visual inter-hemispheric connections on spiking, assembly and LFP activities, and their phase relationship during figure-ground stimulation

Desde os descobrimentos pioneiros de Hubel e Wiesel acumulou-se uma vasta literatura descrevendo as respostas neuronais do córtex visual primário (V1) a diferentes estímulos visuais. Estes estímulos consistem principalmente em barras em movimento, pontos ou grades, que são úteis para explorar as respostas dentro do campo receptivo clássico (CRF do inglês classical receptive field) a características básicas dos estímulos visuais como a orientação, direção de movimento, contraste, entre outras. Entretanto, nas últimas duas décadas, tornou-se cada vez mais evidente que a atividade de neurônios em V1 pode ser modulada por estímulos fora do CRF. Desta forma, áreas visuais primárias poderiam estar envolvidas em funções visuais mais complexas como, por exemplo, a separação de um objeto ou figura do seu fundo (segregação figura-fundo) e assume-se que as conexões intrínsecas de longo alcance em V1, assim como as conexões de áreas visuais superiores, estão ativamente envolvidas neste processo. Sua possível função foi inferida a partir da análise das variações das respostas induzidas por um estímulo localizado fora do CRF de neurônios individuais. Mesmo sendo muito provável que estas conexões tenham também um impacto tanto na atividade conjunta de neurônios envolvidos no processamento da figura quanto no potencial de campo, estas questões permanecem pouco estudadas. Visando examinar a modulação do contexto visual nessas atividades, coletamos potenciais de ação e potenciais de campo em paralelo de até 48 eletrodos implantados na área visual primária de gatos anestesiados. Estimulamos com grades compostas e cenas naturais, focando-nos na atividade de neurônios cujo CRF estava situado na figura. Da mesma forma, visando examinar a influência das conexões laterais, o sinal proveniente da área visual isotópica e contralateral foi removido através da desativação reversível por resfriamento. Fizemos isso devido a: i) as conexões laterais intrínsecas não podem ser facilmente manipuladas sem afetar diretamente os sinais que estão sendo medidos, ii) as conexões inter-hemisféricas compartilham as principais características anatômicas com a rede lateral intrínseca e podem ser vistas como uma continuação funcional das mesmas entre os dois hemisférios e iii) o resfriamento desativa as conexões de forma causal e reversível, silenciando temporariamente seu sinal, permitindo conclusões diretas a respeito da sua contribuição. Nossos resultados demonstram que o mecanismo de segmentação figurafundo se reflete nas taxas de disparo de neurônios individuais, assim como na potência do potencial de campo e na relação entre sua fase e os padrões de disparo produzidos pela população. Além disso, as conexões laterais inter-hemisféricas modulam estas variáveis dependendo da estimulação feita fora do CRF. Observamos também uma influência deste circuito lateral na coerência entre potenciais de campo entre eletrodos distantes. Em conclusão, nossos resultados dão suporte à ideia de um mecanismo complexo de segmentação figura-fundo atuando desde as áreas visuais primárias em diferentes escalas de frequência. Esse mecanismo parece envolver grupos de neurônios ativos sincronicamente e dependentes da fase do potencial de campo. Nossos resultados também são compatíveis com a hipótese que conexões laterais de longo alcance também fazem parte deste mecanismo

Power performance evaluation of an electric home fan with triac-based automatic speed control system

In order to provide a low cost system of thermal comfort, a common model of home fan, 40 cm diameter size, had its manual four-button control system replaced by an automatic speed control. The new control system has a temperature sensor feeding a microcontroller that, by using an optic coupling, DIAC or TRIAC-based circuit, varies the RMS value of the fan motor input voltage and its speed, according to the room temperature. Over a wide range of velocity, the fan net power and the motor fan input power were measured working under both control system. The temperature of the motor stator and the voltage waveforms were observed too. Measured values analysis showed that the TRIAC-based control system makes the fan motor work at a very low power factor and efficiency values. The worst case is at low velocity range where the higher fan motor stator temperatures were registered. The poor power factor and efficiency and the harmonics signals inserted in the motor input voltage wave by the TRIAC commutation procedure are correlated.

Parameterized fast decoupled power flow methods for obtaining the maximum loading point of power systems. Part I. Mathematical modeling

The conventional Newton and fast decoupled power flow (FDPF) methods have been considered inadequate to obtain the maximum loading point of power systems due to ill-conditioning problems at and near this critical point. It is well known that the PV and Q-theta decoupling assumptions of the fast decoupled power flow formulation no longer hold in the vicinity of the critical point. Moreover, the Jacobian matrix of the Newton method becomes singular at this point. However, the maximum loading point can be efficiently computed through parameterization techniques of continuation methods. In this paper it is shown that by using either theta or V as a parameter, the new fast decoupled power flow versions (XB and BX) become adequate for the computation of the maximum loading point only with a few small modifications. The possible use of reactive power injection in a selected PV bus (Q(PV)) as continuation parameter (mu) for the computation of the maximum loading point is also shown. A trivial secant predictor, the modified zero-order polynomial which uses the current solution and a fixed increment in the parameter (V, theta, or mu) as an estimate for the next solution, is used in predictor step. These new versions are compared to each other with the purpose of pointing out their features, as well as the influence of reactive power and transformer tap limits. The results obtained with the new approach for the IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57 and 118 buses) are presented and discussed in the companion paper. The results show that the characteristics of the conventional method are enhanced and the region of convergence around the singular solution is enlarged. In addition, it is shown that parameters can be switched during the tracing process in order to efficiently determine all the PV curve points with few iterations. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvements for ZCS-PWM commutation cell in high-power-factor preregulator application

A Summary of different topological arrangements concerning a ZCS-PWM cell is presented, based on the analysis of its application in boost rectifying preregulators, controlled by the technique of instantaneous average values of input current, with the purpose of obtaining high-input-power-factor rectifier and high efficiency in single-phase applications in telecommunication systems. The main characteristics of each switching cell are described, providing conditions to establish a qualitative comparison among the structures. In addition, experimental results are presented for a prototype of the latest version of the ZCS-PWM boost rectifier, implemented for processing normal values of 1200 W output power and 400 V output average voltage, at 220 V Input RMS voltage and 50 kHz switching frequency.

Parameterized fast decoupled power flow methods for obtaining the maximum loading point of power systems. Part II. Performance evaluation

The parameterized fast decoupled power flow (PFDPF), versions XB and BX, using either theta or V as a parameter have been proposed by the authors in Part I of this paper. The use of reactive power injection of a selected PVbus (Q(PV)) as the continuation parameter for the computation of the maximum loading point (MLP) was also investigated. In this paper, the proposed versions obtained only with small modifications of the conventional one are used for the computation of the MLP of IEEE test systems (14, 30, 57 and 118 buses). These new versions are compared to each other with the purpose of pointing out their features, as well as the influence of reactive power and transformer tap limits. The results obtained with the new approaches are presented and discussed. The results show that the characteristics of the conventional FDPF method are enhanced and the region of convergence around the singular solution is enlarged. In addition, it is shown that these versions can be switched during the tracing process in order to efficiently determine all the PV curve points with few iterations. A trivial secant predictor, the modified zero-order polynomial, which uses the current solution and a fixed increment in the parameter (V, theta, or mu) as an estimate for the next solution, is used for the predictor step. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuation fast decoupled power flow with secant predictor

The conventional Newton and fast decoupled power flow methods are considered inadequate for obtaining the maximum loading point of power systems due to ill-conditioning problems at and near this critical point. At this point, the Jacobian matrix of the Newton method becomes singular. In addition, it is widely accepted that the P-V and Q-theta decoupling assumptions made for the fast decoupled power flow formulation no longer hold. However, in this paper, it is presented a new fast decoupled power flow that becomes adequate for the computation of the maximum loading point by simply using the reactive power injection of a selected PV bus as a continuation parameter. Besides, fast decoupled methods using V and 0 as parameters and a secant predictor are also presented. These new versions are compared to each other with the purpose of pointing out their features, as well as the influence of reactive power and transformer tap limits. The results obtained for the IEEE systems (14 and 118 buses) show that the characteristics of the conventional method are enhanced and the region of convergence around the singular solution is enlarged.

Comparação entre metodologias de extração de HPAs em água utilizando um planejamento fatorial com quantificação no CG/EM

PAHs (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons) are a group of organic substances which receive considerable attention because of the carcinogenic and mutagenic properties of some of them. It is therefore important to determine the PAHs in different environmental matrices. Several studies have shown the use of gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry as a technique for quantification of PAHs by presenting excellent detection limits. This study aimed to develop an analytical methodology for the determination of 16 PAHs listed by the USEPA, test two methods for extraction of PAHs in water from a 23 factorial design, quantify them through the analytical technique coupled to gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC/MS) using the method developed, and finally apply the results in chemometrics. The sample was synthesized and subjected to tests of the 23 factorial design, which has the factors: the type of extraction technique (ultrasound and digester), the ratio solvent / sample (1:1 and 1:3) and the type of solvent (dichloromethane / hexane and acetone / dichloromethane). The responses of eight combinations of the factorial design were obtained from the quantification by external calibration in GC/MS. The quantification method was developed from an optimized adaptation of the USEPA Method 8270. We used the full scan mode as a way of acquiring the mass spectra of 16 PAHs. The time in which the samples were subjected to ultrasound was fixed at 10 min and held an investigation to establish the conditions of power and time in the digester. We had the best response in the investigation of the digester power of 100 watts and the time of six minutes. The factorial design of liquid-liquid extraction showed that the most representative factors were: the use of the digester as extraction technique, the ratio solvent / sample 1:1 and the use of a 1:1 mixture of dichloromethane / hexane as a solvent more suitable. These results showed that the 1:1 mixture of dichloromethane / hexane is an excellent mixture to recover the extraction of PAHs an aqueous sample using the microwave digester. The optimization of the method of separation, identification and quantification of PAHs in the GC/MS was valid for 16 PAHs present in each chromatogram of the samples