Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models

Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model extended with both real-time and final data. After implementing a Bayesian estimation approach, the role of both habit formation and price indexation fall significantly in the extended model. The results show how revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In turn, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.

An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Time Variation in an Optimal Asymmetric Preference Monetary Policy Model

This paper considers a time varying parameter extension of the Ruge-Murcia (2003, 2004) model to explore whether some of the variation in parameter estimates seen in the literature could arise from this source. A time varying value for the unemployment volatility parameter can be motivated through several means including variation in the slope of the Phillips curve or variation in the preferences of the monetary authority.We show that allowing time variation for the coefficient on the unemployment volatility parameter improves the model fit and it helps to provide an explanation of inflation bias based on asymmetric central banker preferences, which is consistent across subsamples.

Moral cleansing and moral licenses: experimental evidence

Research on moral cleansing and moral self-licensing has introduced dynamic considerations in the theory of moral behavior. Past bad actions trigger negative feelings that make people more likely to engage in future moral behavior to offset them. Symmetrically, past good deeds favor a positive self-perception that creates licensing effects, leading people to engage in behavior that is less likely to be moral. In short, a deviation from a “normal state of being” is balanced with a subsequent action that compensates the prior behavior. We model the decision of an individual trying to reach the optimal level of moral self-worth over time and show that under certain conditions the optimal sequence of actions follows a regular pattern which combines good and bad actions. We conduct an economic experiment where subjects play a sequence of giving decisions (dictator games) to explore this phenomenon. We find that donation in the previous period affects present decisions and the sign is negative: participants’ behavior in every round is negatively correlated to what they did in the past. Hence donations over time seem to be the result of a regular pattern of self-regulation: moral licensing (being selfish after altruist) and cleansing (altruistic after selfish).

Ictiólogos de la Argentina: Eduardo Ladislao Holmberg.

This series will include all those people who, by means of their contributions, great and small, played a part in the consolidation of ichthyology in Argentina. The general plan of this work consists of individual factsheets containing a list of works by each author, along with reference bibliography and, whenever possible, personal pictures and additional material. The datasheets will be published primarily in chronological order, although this is subject to change by the availability of materials for successive editions. This work represents another approach for the recovery and revalorization of those who set the foundations of Argentine ichthyology while in diverse historical circumstances. I expect this to be the beginning of a major work that achieves the description of such a significant part of the history of natural sciences in Argentina. Hugo L. López (Texto en espanol. PDF tiene setenta y tres paginas)

Ictiólogos de la Argentina: Fernando Lahille.

This series will include all those people who, by means of their contributions, great and small, played a part in the consolidation of ichthyology in Argentina. The general plan of this work consists of individual factsheets containing a list of works by each author, along with reference bibliography and, whenever possible, personal pictures and additional material. The datasheets will be published primarily in chronological order, although this is subject to change by the availability of materials for successive editions. This work represents another approach for the recovery and revalorization of those who set the foundations of Argentine ichthyology while in diverse historical circumstances. I expect this to be the beginning of a major work that achieves the description of such a significant part of the history of natural sciences in Argentina. Hugo L. López (Texto en espanol. PDF tiene setenta y dos paginas.)

Ictiólogos de la Argentina: Luciano Honorio Valette.

Spanish: En esta serie se mencionan a todos aquellos que, a través de sus pequeños o grandes aportes, contribuyeron a la consolidación de la disciplina en nuestro país. El plan general de esta contribución consiste en la elaboración de fichas individuales que contengan una lista de trabajos de los diferentes autores, acompañadas por bibliografía de referencia y, cuando ello fuera posible, por imágenes personales y material adicional. Se tratará de guardar un orden cronológico, pero esto no es excluyente, ya que priorizaremos las sucesivas ediciones al material disponible. Este es otro camino para rescatar y revalorizar a quienes en diversos contextos históricos sentaron las bases de lo que hoy es la ictiología nacional. Considero que este es el comienzo de una obra de mayor magnitud en la que se logre describir una parte importante de la historia de las ciencias naturales de la República Argentina. English:This series will include all those people who, by means of their contributions, great and small, played a part in the consolidation of ichthyology in Argentina. The general plan of this work consists of individual factsheets containing a list of works by each author, along with reference bibliography and, whenever possible, personal pictures and additional material. The datasheets will be published primarily in chronological order, although this is subject to change by the availability of materials for successive editions. This work represents another approach for the recovery and revalorization of those who set the foundations of Argentine ichthyology while in diverse historical circumstances. I expect this to be the beginning of a major work that achieves the description of such a significant part of the history of natural sciences in Argentina. Hugo L. López (Texto en espanol. PDF tiene 26 paginas.)

Ictiólogos de la Argentina: Rogelio Bartolomé López.

Spanish: En esta serie se mencionan a todos aquellos que, a través de sus pequeños o grandes aportes, contribuyeron a la consolidación de la disciplina en nuestro país. El plan general de esta contribución consiste en la elaboración de fichas individuales que contengan una lista de trabajos de los diferentes autores, acompañadas por bibliografía de referencia y, cuando ello fuera posible, por imágenes personales y material adicional. Se tratará de guardar un orden cronológico, pero esto no es excluyente, ya que priorizaremos las sucesivas ediciones al material disponible. Este es otro camino para rescatar y revalorizar a quienes en diversos contextos históricos sentaron las bases de lo que hoy es la ictiología nacional. Considero que este es el comienzo de una obra de mayor magnitud en la que se logre describir una parte importante de la historia de las ciencias naturales de la República Argentina. English: This series will include all those people who, by means of their contributions, great and small, played a part in the consolidation of ichthyology in Argentina. The general plan of this work consists of individual factsheets containing a list of works by each author, along with reference bibliography and, whenever possible, personal pictures and additional material. The datasheets will be published primarily in chronological order, although this is subject to change by the availability of materials for successive editions. This work represents another approach for the recovery and revalorization of those who set the foundations of Argentine ichthyology while in diverse historical circumstances. I expect this to be the beginning of a major work that achieves the description of such a significant part of the history of natural sciences in Argentina. Hugo L. López (Texto en espanol. PDF tiene viente tres paginas.)

STREAM Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp 1-17. April-June 2005

CONTENTS: Changes in Jabarrah, by Satyendra D. Tripathi, as told by Thanda Mahato. Palu Hijau in the Banggai Islands Jabarrah: using knowledge for change, by Akhdary Dj Supu, translated by Abigail Moore. Banggai Islands case study: building foundations for action, by Samliok Ndobe, translated by Abigail Moore. Three stories from Nepal, by Ghanshayam Poudel, Suraj, Ramesh Gautam, Pashupati Chaudhary, Anil Subedi, Muralidhar Mishara and Chet Nath Adhikari. Me and my work, by Sheryll Alcazar. Livelihoods approaches: skills learned, applied and shared, by Monica Piquero-Tan.

Prosocial norms and degree heterogeneity in social networks

We provide empirical evidence to support the claims that social diversity promotes prosocial behavior. We elicit a real-life social network and its members’ adherence to a social norm, namely inequity aversion. The data reveal a positive relationship between subjects’ prosociality and several measures of centrality. This result is in line with the theoretical literature that relates the evolution of social norms to the structure of social interactions and argues that central individuals are crucial for the emergence of prosocial behavior.

Selectivity, pulse fishing and endogenous lifespan in Beverton-Holt models

Optimal management in a multi-cohort Beverton-Holt model with any number of age classes and imperfect selectivity is equivalent to finding the optimal fish lifespan by chosen fallow cycles. Optimal policy differs in two main ways from the optimal lifespan rule with perfect selectivity. First, weight gain is valued in terms of the whole population structure. Second, the cost of waiting is the interest rate adjusted for the increase in the pulse length. This point is especially relevant for assessing the role of selectivity. Imperfect selectivity reduces the optimal lifespan and the optimal pulse length. We illustrate our theoretical findings with a numerical example. Results obtained using global numerical methods select the optimal pulse length predicted by the optimal lifespan rule.

Are Bar Associations Anticompetitive? An Empirical Analysis of Recommended Prices for Legal Services in Spain

The European Commission Report on Competition in Professional Services found that recommended prices by professional bodies have a significant negative effect on competition since they may facilitate the coordination of prices between service providers and/or mislead consumers about reasonable price levels. Professional associations argue, first, that a fee schedule may help their members to properly calculate the cost of services avoiding excessive charges and reducing consumers’ searching costs and, second, that recommended prices are very useful for cost appraisal if a litigant is condemned to pay the legal expenses of the opposing party. Thus, recommended fee schedules could be justified to some extent if they represented the cost of providing the services. We test this hypothesis using cross‐section data on a subset of recommended prices by 52 Spanish bar associations and cost data on their territorial jurisdictions. Our empirical results indicate that prices recommended by bar associations are unrelated to the cost of legal services and therefore we conclude that recommended prices have merely an anticompetitive effect.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Competitive Pressure and Job Interview Lying: A Game Theoretical Analysis

We consider a job contest in which candidates go through interviews (cheap talk) and are subject to reference checks. We show how competitive pressure - increasing the ratio of "good" to "bad" type candi- dates - can lead to a vast increase in lying and in some cases make bad hires more likely. As the number of candidates increases, it becomes harder to in- duce truth-telling. The interview stage becomes redundant if the candidates, a priori, know each others' type or the result of their own reference check. Finally, we show that the employer can bene t from committing not to reject all the applicants.

Full Implementation of Rank Dependent Prizes

A manager/mechanism designer must allocate a set of money prizes ($1, $2, .., $n) between n agents working in a team. The agents know the state i.e. who contributed most, second most, etc. The agents' prefer- ences over prizes are state independent. We incorporate the possibility that the manager knows the state with a tiny probability and present a simple mechanism that uniquely implement prizes that respects the true state.