5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Temporal trend of pesticide concentrations in the Chikugo River (Japan) with changes in environmental regulation and field infrastructure

Contamination of pesticides, which are applied to rice paddy fields, in river water has been a major problem in Japan for decades. A prolonged water holding period after pesticide application in paddy fields is expected to reduce the concentration of rice pesticides in river water. Therefore, a long monitoring campaign was conducted from 2004 to 2010 to measure the concentrations of pesticides in water samples collected from several points along the Chikugo River (Japan) including tributaries and the main stream to see if there was any reduction in the level of pesticide contamination after the extension of the water holding period (from 3–4 days to 7 days) was introduced in 2007 by the new water management regulation. No significant difference (p > 0.05) was found in pesticide concentrations between the periods before and after 2007 in all monitoring points, except in one tributary where the pesticide concentrations after 2007 were even higher than that of the previous period. A detailed study in one of the tributaries also revealed that the renovated infrastructure did not reduce the pesticide concentrations in the drainage canals. Neither the introduction of the new regulation nor the improved infrastructure had any significant effect on reducing the contamination of pesticides in water of the Chikugo River. It is probably because most farmers did not properly implement the new requirement of holding paddy water within the field for 7 days after the application of pesticides. Only tightening the regulation would not be sufficient and more actions should be taken to enforce/provide extension support for the new water management regulation in order to reduce the level of residual pesticides in river water in Japan.

Twelve not so angry men: Masculinities and the perceptions of the 'off-field' violence involved in Australian body contact sports

Recently, media 'scandals' have pervaded a number of Australian body contact sports, in particular rugby league, rugby union and Australian rules football. Utilising the theoretical framework of masculinities, this research interviews footballers to gauge their perceptions of this media attention and how it compares to their own perspectives regarding off-field violence. Drawing inspiration from James Messerschmidt's (2000) 'Nine Lives' study and R.W. Connell's (1995) theoretical masculinities framework, in-depth, semi-structured interviews—known as life histories—were conducted with 12 footballers. Twelve life histories were completed with four men from each of the three major Australian football codes, namely Australian rules football, rugby union and rugby league. The research explores linkages between masculinity, body contact sport and engagement (or lack thereof) in violence 'off field'.

Evolution of multivariant microstructures with anisotropic misfit: A phase field study

We study, in two dimensions, the effect of misfit anisotropy on microstructural evolution during precipitation of an ordered beta phase from a disordered alpha matrix; these phases have, respectively, 2- and 6-fold rotation symmetries. Thus, precipitation produces three orientational variants of beta phase particles, and they have an anisotropic (and crystallographically equivalent) misfit strain with the matrix. The anisotropy in misfit is characterized using a parameter t = epsilon(yy)/epsilon(xx), where epsilon(xx) and epsilon(yy) are the principal components of the misfit strain tensor. Our phase field, simulations show that the morphology of beta phase particles is significantly influenced by 1, the level of misfit anisotropy. Particles are circular in systems with dilatational misfit (t = 1), elongated along the direction of lower principal misfit when 0 < t < 1 and elongated along the invariant direction when - 1 <= t <= 0. In the special case of a pure shear misfit strain (t = - 1), the microstructure exhibits star, wedge and checkerboard patterns; these microstructural features are in agreement with those in Ti-Al-Nb alloys.

Molecular Origin of the Intrinsic Bending Force for Helical Morphology Observed in Chiral Amphiphilic Assemblies: Concentration and Size Dependence

The formation of the helical morphology in monolayers and bilayers of chiral amphiphilic assemblies is believed to be driven at least partly by the interactions at the chiral centers of the amphiphiles. However, a detailed microscopic understanding of these interactions and their relation with the helix formation is still not clear. In this article a study of the molecular origin of the chirality-driven helix formation is presented by calculating, for the first time, the effective pair potential between a pair of chiral molecules. This effective potential depends on the relative sizes of the groups attached to the two chiral centers, on the orientation of the amphiphile molecules, and also on the distance between them. We find that for the mirror-image isomers (in the racemic modification) the minimum energy conformation is a nearly parallel alignment of the molecules. On the other hand, the same for a pair of molecules of one kind of enantiomer favors a tilt angle between them, thus leading to the formation of a helical morphology of the aggregate. The tilt angle is determined by the size of the groups attached to the chiral centers of the pair of molecules considered and in many cases predicted it to be close to 45 degrees. The present study, therefore, provides a molecular origin of the intrinsic bending force, suggested by Helfrich (J. Chem. Phys. 1986, 85, 1085-1087), to be responsible for the formation of helical structure. This effective potential may explain many of the existing experimental results, such as the size and the concentration dependence of the formation of helical morphology. It is further found that the elastic forces can significantly modify the pitch predicted by the chiral interactions alone and that the modified real pitch is close to the experimentally observed value. The present study is expected to provide a starting point for future microscopic studies.

Detection of anuran calling activity in long field recordings for bio-acoustic monitoring

This paper presents a system to analyze long field recordings with low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for bio-acoustic monitoring. A method based on spectral peak track, Shannon entropy, harmonic structure and oscillation structure is proposed to automatically detect anuran (frog) calling activity. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is introduced for modelling those features. Four anuran species widespread in Queensland, Australia, are selected to evaluate the proposed system. A visualization method based on extracted indices is employed for detection of anuran calling activity which achieves high accuracy.

Unsteady flow over a stretching surface with a magnetic field in a rotating fluid

The effect of the magnetic field on the unsteady flow over a stretching surface in a rotating fluid has been studied. The unsteadiness in the flow field is due to the time-dependent variation of the velocity of the stretching surface and the angular velocity of the rotating fluid. The Navier-Stokes equations and the energy equation governing the flow and the heat transfer admit a self-similar solution if the velocity of the stretching surface and the angular velocity of the rotating fluid vary inversely as a linear function of time. The resulting system of ordinary differential equations is solved numerically using a shooting method. The rotation parameter causes flow reversal in the component of the velocity parallel to the strerching surface and the magnetic field tends to prevent or delay the flow reversal. The surface shear stresses dong the stretching surface and in the rotating direction increase with the rotation parameter, but the surface heat transfer decreases. On the other hand, the magnetic field increases the surface shear stress along the stretching surface, but reduces the surface shear stress in the rotating direction and the surface heat transfer. The effect of the unsteady parameter is more pronounced on the velocity profiles in the rotating direction and temperature profiles.

Crossover from Ising to mean-field critical behavior in an aqueous electrolyte solution

The near-critical behavior of the susceptibility deduced from light-scattering measurements in a ternary liquid mixture of 3-methylpyridine, water, and sodium bromide has been determined. The measurements have been performed in the one-phase region near the lower consolute points of samples with different concentrations of sodium bromide. A crossover from Ising asymptotic behavior to mean-field behavior has been observed. As the concentration of sodium bromide increases, the crossover becomes more pronounced, and the crossover temperature shifts closer to the critical temperature. The data are well described by a model that contains two independent crossover parameters. The crossover of the susceptibility critical exponent γ from its Ising value γ=1.24 to the mean-field value γ=1 is sharp and nonmonotonic. We conclude that there exists an additional length scale in the system due to the presence of the electrolyte which competes with the correlation length of the concentration fluctuations. An analogy with crossover phenomena in polymer solutions and a possible connection with multicritical phenomena is discussed.

Field and potential around local scatterers in thin metal films studied by scanning tunneling potentiometry

We report the direct observation of electrochemical potential and local transport field variations near scatterers like grain boundaries, triple points, and voids in thin platinum films studied by scanning tunneling potentiometry. The field is highest at a void, followed by a triple point and a grain boundary. The local transport field near a void can even be four orders of magnitude higher than the macroscopic field, indicating that the void is the most likely place for an electromigration induced failure. The field build up for a particular type of scatterer depends on the grain connectivity. We estimate an average grain boundary reflection coefficient for the film from the temperature dependence of its resistivity.

Field imperfection induced axial secular frequency shifts in nonlinear ion traps

This article develops a simple analytical expression that relates ion axial secular frequency to field aberration in ion trap mass spectrometers. Hexapole and octopole aberrations have been considered in the present computations. The equation of motion of the ions in a pseudopotential well with these superpositions has the form of a Duffing-like equation and a perturbation method has been used to obtain the expression for ion secular frequency as a function of field imperfections. The expression indicates that the frequency shift is sensitive to the sign of the octopole superposition and insensitive to the sign of the hexapole superposition. Further, for weak multipole superposition of the same magnitude, octopole superposition causes a larger frequency shift in comparison to hexapole superposition.

Flow and heat transfer in a stagnation-point flow over a stretching sheet with a magnetic field

The flow and heat transfer problem in the boundary layer induced by a continuous moving surface is important in many manufacturing processes in industry such as the boundary layer along material handling conveyers, the aerodynamic extrusion of plastic sheet, the cooling of an infinite metalic plate in a cooling bath (which may also be electrolyte). Glass blowing, continuous casting and spinning of fibres also involve the flow due to a stretching surface. Sakiadis [1] was the first to study the flow induced by a semi-infinite moving wall in an ambient fluid. On the other hand, Crane [2] first studied the flow over a linearly stretching sheet in an ambient fluid. Subsequently, Crane [3] also investigated the corresponding heat transfer problem. Since then several authors [4-8] have studied various aspects of this problem such as the effects of mass transfer, variable wall temperature, constant heat flux, magnetic field etc. Recently, Andersson [9] has obtained an exact solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for the MHD flow over a linearly stretching sheet in an ambient fluid. Also Chiam [10] has studied the heat transfer with variable thermal conductivity on a stretching sheet when the velocities of the sheet and the free stream are equal.

Precipitation In Small Systems--II. Mean Field Equations More Effective Than Population Balance

Part I (Manjunath et al., 1994, Chem. Engng Sci. 49, 1451-1463) of this paper showed that the random particle numbers and size distributions in precipitation processes in very small drops obtained by stochastic simulation techniques deviate substantially from the predictions of conventional population balance. The foregoing problem is considered in this paper in terms of a mean field approximation obtained by applying a first-order closure to an unclosed set of mean field equations presented in Part I. The mean field approximation consists of two mutually coupled partial differential equations featuring (i) the probability distribution for residual supersaturation and (ii) the mean number density of particles for each size and supersaturation from which all average properties and fluctuations can be calculated. The mean field equations have been solved by finite difference methods for (i) crystallization and (ii) precipitation of a metal hydroxide both occurring in a single drop of specified initial supersaturation. The results for the average number of particles, average residual supersaturation, the average size distribution, and fluctuations about the average values have been compared with those obtained by stochastic simulation techniques and by population balance. This comparison shows that the mean field predictions are substantially superior to those of population balance as judged by the close proximity of results from the former to those from stochastic simulations. The agreement is excellent for broad initial supersaturations at short times but deteriorates progressively at larger times. For steep initial supersaturation distributions, predictions of the mean field theory are not satisfactory thus calling for higher-order approximations. The merit of the mean field approximation over stochastic simulation lies in its potential to reduce expensive computation times involved in simulation. More effective computational techniques could not only enhance this advantage of the mean field approximation but also make it possible to use higher-order approximations eliminating the constraints under which the stochastic dynamics of the process can be predicted accurately.

Particle field imaging using digital in-line holography

Digital holography is the direct recording of holograms using a CCD camera and is an alternative to the use of a film or a plate. In this communication in-line digital holographic microscopy has been explored for its application in particle imaging in 3D. Holograms of particles of about 10 mu m size have been digitally reconstructed. Digital focusing was done to image the particles in different planes along the depth of focus. Digital holographic particle imaging results were compared with conventional optical microscope imaging. A methodology for dynamic analysis of microparticles in 3D using in-line digital holography has been proposed.

Vertical structure and horizontal gradients of aerosol extinction coefficients over coastal India inferred from airborne lidar measurements during the Integrated Campaign for Aerosol, Gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB) field campaign

Quantitative estimates of the vertical structure and the spatial gradients of aerosol extinction coefficients have been made from airborne lidar measurements across the coastline into offshore oceanic regions along the east and west coasts of India. The vertical structure revealed the presence of strong, elevated aerosol layers in the altitude region of similar to 2-4 km, well above the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Horizontal gradients also showed a vertical structure, being sharp with the e(-1) scaling distance (D-0H) as small as similar to 150 km in the well-mixed regions mostly under the influence of local source effects. Above the ABL, where local effects are subdued, the gradients were much shallower (similar to 600-800 km); nevertheless, they were steep compared to the value of similar to 1500-2500 km reported for columnar AOD during winter. The gradients of these elevated layers were steeper over the east coast of India than over the west coast. Near-simultaneous radio sonde (Vaisala, Inc., Finland) ascents made over the northern Bay of Bengal showed the presence of convectively unstable regions, first from surface to similar to 750-1000 m and the other extending from 1750 to 3000 m separated by a stable region in between. These can act as a conduit for the advection of aerosols and favor the transport of continental aerosols in the higher levels (> 2 km) into the oceans without entering the marine boundary layer below. Large spatial gradient in aerosol optical and hence radiative impacts between the coastal landmass and the adjacent oceans within a short distance of < 300 km (even at an altitude of 3 km) during summer and the premonsoon is of significance to the regional climate.