915 resultados para Bayesian p-values
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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The objective of the study was to estimate heritability for calving interval (CI) and age at first calving (AFC) and also calculate repeatability for CI in buffaloes using Bayesian inference. The Brazilian Buffaloes Genetic Improvement Program provided the database. Data consists on information from 628 females and four different herds, born between 1980 and 2003. In order to estimate the variance, univariate analyses were performed employing Gibbs sampler procedure included in the MTGSAM software. The model for CI included the random effects direct additive and permanent environment factors, and the fixed effects of contemporary groups and calving orders. The model for AFC included the direct additive random effect and contemporary groups as a fixed effect. The convergence diagnosis was obtained using Geweke that was implemented through the Bayesian Output Analysis package in R software. The estimated averages were 433.2 days and 36.7months for CI and AFC, respectively. The means, medians and modes for the calculated heritability coefficients were similar. The heritability coefficients were 0.10 and 0.42 for CI and AFC respectively, with a posteriori marginal density that follows a normal distribution for both traits. The repeatability for CI was 0.13. The low heritability estimated for CI indicates that the variation in this trait is, to a large extent, influenced by environmental factors such as herd management policies. The age at first calving has clear potential for yield improvement through direct selection in these animals.
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The aim of this study was to estimate genetic, environmental and phenotypic correlation between birth weight (BW) and weight at 205 days age (W205), BW and weight at 365 days age (W365) and W205-W365, using Bayesian inference. The Brazilian Program for Genetic Improvement of Buffaloes provided the data that included 3,883 observations from Mediterranean breed buffaloes. With the purpose to estimate variance and covariance, bivariate analyses were performed using Gibbs sampler that is included in the MTGSAM software. The model for BW, W205 and W365 included additive direct and maternal genetic random effects, maternal environmental random effect and contemporary group as fixed effect. The convergence diagnosis was achieved using Geweke, a method that uses an algorithm implemented in R software through the package Bayesian Output Analysis. The calculated direct genetic correlations were 0.34 (BW-W205), 0.25 (BW-W365) and 0.74 (W205-W365). The environmental correlations were 0.12, 0.11 and 0.72 between BW-W205, BW-W365 and W205-W365, respectively. The phenotypic correlations were low for BW-W205 (0.01) and BW-W365 (0.04), differently than the obtained for W205-W365 with a value of 0.67. The results indicate that BW trait have low genetic, environmental and phenotypic association with the two others traits. The genetic correlation between W205 and W365 was high and suggests that the selection for weight at around 205 days could be beneficial to accelerate the genetic gain.
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The objective of the study was to estimate heritability and repeatability for milk yield (MY) and lactation length (LL) in buffaloes using Bayesian inference. The Brazilian genetic improvement program of buffalo provided the data that included 628 females, from four herds, born between 1980 and 2003. In order to obtain the estimates of variance, univariate analyses were performed with the Gibbs sampler, using the MTGSAM software. The model for MY and LL included direct genetic additive and permanent environment as random effects, and contemporary groups, milking frequency and calving number as fixed effects. The convergence diagnosis was performed with the Geweke method using an algorithm implemented in R software through the package Bayesian Output Analysis. Average for milk yield and lactation length was 1,546.1 +/- 483.8 kg and 252.3 +/- 42.5 days, respectively. The heritability coefficients were 0.31 (mode), 0.35 (mean) and 0.34 (median) for MY and 0.11 (mode), 0.10 (mean) and 0.10 (median) for LL. The repeatability coefficient (mode) were 0.50 and 0.15 for MY and LL, respectively. Milk yield is the only trait with clear potential for genetic improvement by direct genetic selection. The repeatability for MY indicates that selection based on the first lactation could contribute for an improvement in this trait.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Knowing the genetic parameters of productive and reproductive traits in milking buffaloes is essential for planning and implementing of a program genetic selection. In Brazil, this information is still scarce. The objective of this study was to verify the existence of genetic variability in milk yield of buffaloes and their constituents, and reproductive traits for the possibility of application of the selection. A total of 9,318 lactations records from 3,061 cows were used to estimate heritabilities for milk yield (MY), fat percentage (%F), protein percentage (%P), length of lactation (LL), age of first calving (AFC) and calving interval (CI) and the genetic correlations among traits MY, %F and %P. The (co) variance components were estimated using multiple-trait analysis by Bayesian inference method, applying an animal model, through Gibbs sampling. The model included the fixed effects of contemporary groups (herd-year and calving season), number of milking (2 levels), and age of cow at calving as (co) variable (quadratic and linear effect). The additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual effects were included as random effects in the model. Estimated heritability values for MY, % F, % P, LL, AFC and CI were 0.24, 0.34, 0.40, 0.09, 0.16 and 0.05, respectively. The genetic correlation estimates among MY and % F, MY and % P and % F and % P were -0.29, -0.18 and 0.25, respectively. The production of milk and its constituents showed enough genetic variation to respond to a selection program. Negative estimates of genetic correlations between milk production and its components suggest that selection entails a reduction in the other.
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In this paper distinct prior distributions are derived in a Bayesian inference of the two-parameters Gamma distribution. Noniformative priors, such as Jeffreys, reference, MDIP, Tibshirani and an innovative prior based on the copula approach are investigated. We show that the maximal data information prior provides in an improper posterior density and that the different choices of the parameter of interest lead to different reference priors in this case. Based on the simulated data sets, the Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for the unknown parameters are computed and the performance of the prior distributions are evaluated. The Bayesian analysis is conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to generate samples from the posterior distributions under the above priors.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Knowledge of the effectiveness of prostaglandins in uterine involution process led to the development of protocols with its analogues in postpartum period. However, this hormone mechanism of action is not yet fully elucidated. Thus, the objective of this study was to verify if chloprostenol administration, at early or intermediary puerperium, can induce changes on progesterone, PGFM and oestradiol plasma concentrations. 30 Murrah postpartum buffaloes were randomly divided into three groups: CONT (saline, n = 10); CLO2 (chloprostenol at days 2 and 5 postpartum, n = 10) and; CLO15 (chloprostenol at days 15 and 20 postpartum, n = 10). Blood samples were collected from jugular vein to measure progesterone, PGFM and oestradiol plasma concentrations at days 2, 7, 14, 21 and 28 postpartum. CLO2 group presented lower progesterone and PGFM plasma concentrations in relation to CONT and CLO15 groups (0.23 +/- 0.00 and 0.32 +/- 0.11, 0.19 +/- 0.00 and 0.23 +/- 0.11, 0.23 +/- 0.00 and 0.30 +/- 0.19, for groups CONT, CLO2 and CLO15, respectively; P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in oestradiol plasma concentration between experimental groups (P > 0.05). Prostaglandin synthetic analogue administration induced hormonal changes in postpartum buffaloes, which can partially explain its positive effect under reproductive function of this specie.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Atualmente o titânio é empregado como biomaterial devido à sua biocompatibilidade e resistência à corrosão. Entretanto, íons fluoretos, freqüentemente empregados em dentifrícios bucais, podem interferir no processo de corrosão. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a influência de um meio fluoretado com diferentes pH nas propriedades mecânicas e na resistência à corrosão dos conjuntos implantes/componentes protéticos à base de Ti c.p., a partir dos testes de fadiga, microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV) e dureza. Foram simulados cinco anos de uso regular de meios de higiene oral com conteúdo de 1500 ppm de NaF, com dois diferentes pH, 7,4 e 5,3, mediante imersão das amostras nesses meios durante 184 horas e também em água destilada, grupo controle. As amostras foram testadas num durômetro Micromet 2001 (500gf/30s). Os dados dos testes de dureza foram analisados pelo teste de Wilcoxon, demonstrando que as amostras sofreram influência negativa na dureza após a ação dos íons fluoreto. Entretanto, essa influência não ocorreu nos testes de fadiga realizados em uma máquina de ensaios mecânicos MTS-810, fixada a 100.000 ciclos, 15Hz e programada com força de fadiga a 150 N. Pela análise de MEV foram constatadas evidências de corrosão na superfície das amostras após ação de íons fluoretos, entretanto pelo EDS não se verificou incorporação de íons fluoretos sobre a superfície dos conjuntos. Concluiu-se que a concentração de flúor e o pH das soluções não exerceram influência nas propriedades mecânicas.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)