10 resultados para Bayesian p-values

em CaltechTHESIS


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The differential energy spectra of cosmic-ray protons and He nuclei have been measured at energies up to 315 MeV/nucleon using balloon- and satellite-borne instruments. These spectra are presented for solar quiet times for the years 1966 through 1970. The data analysis is verified by extensive accelerator calibrations of the detector systems and by calculations and measurements of the production of secondary protons in the atmosphere.

The spectra of protons and He nuclei in this energy range are dominated by the solar modulation of the local interstellar spectra. The transport equation governing this process includes as parameters the solar-wind velocity, V, and a diffusion coefficient, K(r,R), which is assumed to be a scalar function of heliocentric radius, r, and magnetic rigidity, R. The interstellar spectra, jD, enter as boundary conditions on the solutions to the transport equation. Solutions to the transport equation have been calculated for a broad range of assumed values for K(r,R) and jD and have been compared with the measured spectra.

It is found that the solutions may be characterized in terms of a dimensionless parameter, ψ(r,R) = r V dr'/(K(r',R). The amount of modulation is roughly proportional to ψ. At high energies or far from the Sun, where the modulation is weak, the solution is determined primarily by the value of ψ (and the interstellar spectrum) and is not sensitive to the radial dependence of the diffusion coefficient. At low energies and for small r, where the effects of adiabatic deceleration are found to be large, the spectra are largely determined by the radial dependence of the diffusion coefficient and are not very sensitive to the magnitude of ψ or to the interstellar spectra. This lack of sensitivity to jD implies that the shape of the spectra at Earth cannot be used to determine the interstellar intensities at low energies.

Values of ψ determined from electron data were used to calculate the spectra of protons and He nuclei near Earth. Interstellar spectra of the form jD α (W - 0.25m)-2.65 for both protons and He nuclei were found to yield the best fits to the measured spectra for these values of ψ, where W is the total energy and m is the rest energy. A simple model for the diffusion coefficient was used in which the radial and rigidity dependence are separable and K is independent of radius inside a modulation region which has a boundary at a distance D. Good agreement was found between the measured and calculated spectra for the years 1965 through 1968, using typical boundary distances of 2.7 and 6.1 A.U. The proton spectra observed in 1969 and 1970 were flatter than in previous years. This flattening could be explained in part by an increase in D, but also seemed to require that a noticeable fraction of the observed protons at energies as high at 50 to 100 MeV be attributed to quiet-time solar emission. The turnup in the spectra at low energies observed in all years was also attributed to solar emission. The diffusion coefficient used to fit the 1965 spectra is in reasonable agreement with that determined from the power spectra of the interplanetary magnetic field (Jokipii and Coleman, 1968). We find a factor of roughly 3 increase in ψ from 1965 to 1970, corresponding to the roughly order of magnitude decrease in the proton intensity at 250 MeV. The change in ψ might be attributed to a decrease in the diffusion coefficient, or, if the diffusion coefficient is essentially unchanged over that period (Mathews et al., 1971), might be attributed to an increase in the boundary distance, D.

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A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.

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Ternary alloys of nickel-palladium-phosphorus and iron-palladium- phosphorus containing 20 atomic % phosphorus were rapidly quenched from the liquid state. The structure of the quenched alloys was investigated by X-ray diffraction. Broad maxima in the diffraction patterns, indicative of a glass-like structure, were obtained for 13 to 73 atomic % nickel and 13 to 44 atomic % iron, with palladium adding up to 80%.

Radial distribution functions were computed from the diffraction data and yielded average interatomic distances and coordination numbers. The structure of the amorphous alloys could be explained in terms of structural units analogous to those existing in the crystalline Pd3P, Ni3P and Fe3P phases, with iron or nickel substituting for palladium. A linear relationship between interatomic distances and composition, similar to Vegard's law, was shown for these metallic glasses.

Electrical resistivity measurements showed that the quenched alloys were metallic. Measurements were performed from liquid helium temperatures (4.2°K) up to the vicinity of the melting points (900°K- 1000°K). The temperature coefficient in the glassy state was very low, of the order of 10-4/°K. A resistivity minimum was found at low temperature, varying between 9°K and 14°K for Nix-Pd80-x -P20 and between 17°K and 96°K for Fex-Pd80-x -P20, indicating the presence of a Kondo effect. Resistivity measurements, with a constant heating rate of about 1.5°C/min,showed progressive crystallization above approximately 600°K.

The magnetic moments of the amorphous Fe-Pd-P alloys were measured as a function of magnetic field and temperature. True ferromagnetism was found for the alloys Fe32-Pd48-P20 and Fe44-Pd36-P20 with Curie points at 165° K and 380° K respectively. Extrapolated values of the saturation magnetic moments to 0° K were 1.70 µB and 2.10 µB respectively. The amorphous alloy Fe23-Pd57-P20 was assumed to be superparamagnetic. The experimental data indicate that phosphorus contributes to the decrease of moments by electron transfer, whereas palladium atoms probably have a small magnetic moment. A preliminary investigation of the Ni-Pd-P amorphous alloys showed that these alloys are weakly paramagnetic.

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The coarsening kinetics of Ni3 Si(γ') precipitate in a binary Ni-Si alloy containing 6.5 wt. % silicon was studied by magnetic techniques and transmission electronmicroscopy. A calibration curve was established to determine the concentration of silicon in the matrix. The variation of the Si content of the Ni-rich matrix as a function of time follows Lifshitz and Wagner theory for diffusion controlled coarsening phenomena. The estimated values of equilibrium solubility of silicon in the matrix represent the true coherent equilibrium solubilities.

The experimental particle-size distributions and average particle size were determined from dark field electron micrographs. The average particle size varies linearly with t-1/3 as suggested by Lifshitz and Wagner. The experimental distributions of particle sizes differ slightly from the theoretical curve at the early stages of aging, but the agreement is satisfactory at the later stages. The values of diffusion coefficient of silicon, interfacial free energy and activation energy were calculated from the results of coarsening kinetics. The experimental value of effective diffusion coefficient is in satisfactory agreement with the value predicted by the application of irreversible the rmodynamics to the process of volume constrained growth of coherent precipitate during coarsening. The coherent γ' particles in Ni-Sialloy unlike those in Ni-Al and Ni-Ti seem to lose coherency at high temperature. A mechanism for the formation of semi-coherent precipitate is suggested.

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The epoch of reionization remains one of the last uncharted eras of cosmic history, yet this time is of crucial importance, encompassing the formation of both the first galaxies and the first metals in the universe. In this thesis, I present four related projects that both characterize the abundance and properties of these first galaxies and uses follow-up observations of these galaxies to achieve one of the first observations of the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium during the heart of the reionization era.

First, we present the results of a spectroscopic survey using the Keck telescopes targeting 6.3 < z < 8.8 star-forming galaxies. We secured observations of 19 candidates, initially selected by applying the Lyman break technique to infrared imaging data from the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This survey builds upon earlier work from Stark et al. (2010, 2011), which showed that star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 6, when the universe was highly ionized, displayed a significant increase in strong Lyman alpha emission with redshift. Our work uses the LRIS and NIRSPEC instruments to search for Lyman alpha emission in candidates at a greater redshift in the observed near-infrared, in order to discern if this evolution continues, or is quenched by an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Our spectroscopic observations typically reach a 5-sigma limiting sensitivity of < 50 AA. Despite expecting to detect Lyman alpha at 5-sigma in 7-8 galaxies based on our Monte Carlo simulations, we only achieve secure detections in two of 19 sources. Combining these results with a similar sample of 7 galaxies from Fontana et al. (2010), we determine that these few detections would only occur in < 1% of simulations if the intrinsic distribution was the same as that at z ~ 6. We consider other explanations for this decline, but find the most convincing explanation to be an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Using theoretical models, we infer a neutral fraction of X_HI ~ 0.44 at z = 7.

Second, we characterize the abundance of star-forming galaxies at z > 6.5 again using WFC3 onboard the HST. This project conducted a detailed search for candidates both in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as well as a number of additional wider Hubble Space Telescope surveys to construct luminosity functions at both z ~ 7 and 8, reaching 0.65 and 0.25 mag fainter than any previous surveys, respectively. With this increased depth, we achieve some of the most robust constraints on the Schechter function faint end slopes at these redshifts, finding very steep values of alpha_{z~7} = -1.87 +/- 0.18 and alpha_{z~8} = -1.94 +/- 0.23. We discuss these results in the context of cosmic reionization, and show that given reasonable assumptions about the ionizing spectra and escape fraction of ionizing photons, only half the photons needed to maintain reionization are provided by currently observable galaxies at z ~ 7-8. We show that an extension of the luminosity function down to M_{UV} = -13.0, coupled with a low level of star-formation out to higher redshift, can fit all available constraints on the ionization history of the universe.

Third, we investigate the strength of nebular emission in 3 < z < 5 star-forming galaxies. We begin by using the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) onboard the Spitzer Space Telescope to investigate the strength of H alpha emission in a sample of 3.8 < z < 5.0 spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. We then conduct near-infrared observations of star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 3.8 to investigate the strength of the [OIII] 4959/5007 and H beta emission lines from the ground using MOSFIRE. In both cases, we uncover near-ubiquitous strong nebular emission, and find excellent agreement between the fluxes derived using the separate methods. For a subset of 9 objects in our MOSFIRE sample that have secure Spitzer IRAC detections, we compare the emission line flux derived from the excess in the K_s band photometry to that derived from direct spectroscopy and find 7 to agree within a factor of 1.6, with only one catastrophic outlier. Finally, for a different subset for which we also have DEIMOS rest-UV spectroscopy, we compare the relative velocities of Lyman alpha and the rest-optical nebular lines which should trace the cites of star-formation. We find a median velocity offset of only v_{Ly alpha} = 149 km/s, significantly less than the 400 km/s observed for star-forming galaxies with weaker Lyman alpha emission at z = 2-3 (Steidel et al. 2010), and show that this decrease can be explained by a decrease in the neutral hydrogen column density covering the galaxy. We discuss how this will imply a lower neutral fraction for a given observed extinction of Lyman alpha when its visibility is used to probe the ionization state of the intergalactic medium.

Finally, we utilize the recent CANDELS wide-field, infra-red photometry over the GOODS-N and S fields to re-analyze the use of Lyman alpha emission to evaluate the neutrality of the intergalactic medium. With this new data, we derive accurate ultraviolet spectral slopes for a sample of 468 3 < z < 6 star-forming galaxies, already observed in the rest-UV with the Keck spectroscopic survey (Stark et al. 2010). We use a Bayesian fitting method which accurately accounts for contamination and obscuration by skylines to derive a relationship between the UV-slope of a galaxy and its intrinsic Lyman alpha equivalent width probability distribution. We then apply this data to spectroscopic surveys during the reionization era, including our own, to accurately interpret the drop in observed Lyman alpha emission. From our most recent such MOSFIRE survey, we also present evidence for the most distant galaxy confirmed through emission line spectroscopy at z = 7.62, as well as a first detection of the CIII]1907/1909 doublet at z > 7.

We conclude the thesis by exploring future prospects and summarizing the results of Robertson et al. (2013). This work synthesizes many of the measurements in this thesis, along with external constraints, to create a model of reionization that fits nearly all available constraints.

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These studies explore how, where, and when representations of variables critical to decision-making are represented in the brain. In order to produce a decision, humans must first determine the relevant stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes before applying an algorithm that will select an action from those available. When choosing amongst alternative stimuli, the framework of value-based decision-making proposes that values are assigned to the stimuli and that these values are then compared in an abstract “value space” in order to produce a decision. Despite much progress, in particular regarding the pinpointing of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a region that encodes the value, many basic questions remain. In Chapter 2, I show that distributed BOLD signaling in vmPFC represents the value of stimuli under consideration in a manner that is independent of the type of stimulus it is. Thus the open question of whether value is represented in abstraction, a key tenet of value-based decision-making, is confirmed. However, I also show that stimulus-dependent value representations are also present in the brain during decision-making and suggest a potential neural pathway for stimulus-to-value transformations that integrates these two results.

More broadly speaking, there is both neural and behavioral evidence that two distinct control systems are at work during action selection. These two systems compose the “goal-directed system”, which selects actions based on an internal model of the environment, and the “habitual” system, which generates responses based on antecedent stimuli only. Computational characterizations of these two systems imply that they have different informational requirements in terms of input stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes. Associative learning theory predicts that the habitual system should utilize stimulus and action information only, while goal-directed behavior requires that outcomes as well as stimuli and actions be processed. In Chapter 3, I test whether areas of the brain hypothesized to be involved in habitual versus goal-directed control represent the corresponding theorized variables.

The question of whether one or both of these neural systems drives Pavlovian conditioning is less well-studied. Chapter 4 describes an experiment in which subjects were scanned while engaged in a Pavlovian task with a simple non-trivial structure. After comparing a variety of model-based and model-free learning algorithms (thought to underpin goal-directed and habitual decision-making, respectively), it was found that subjects’ reaction times were better explained by a model-based system. In addition, neural signaling of precision, a variable based on a representation of a world model, was found in the amygdala. These data indicate that the influence of model-based representations of the environment can extend even to the most basic learning processes.

Knowledge of the state of hidden variables in an environment is required for optimal inference regarding the abstract decision structure of a given environment and therefore can be crucial to decision-making in a wide range of situations. Inferring the state of an abstract variable requires the generation and manipulation of an internal representation of beliefs over the values of the hidden variable. In Chapter 5, I describe behavioral and neural results regarding the learning strategies employed by human subjects in a hierarchical state-estimation task. In particular, a comprehensive model fit and comparison process pointed to the use of "belief thresholding". This implies that subjects tended to eliminate low-probability hypotheses regarding the state of the environment from their internal model and ceased to update the corresponding variables. Thus, in concert with incremental Bayesian learning, humans explicitly manipulate their internal model of the generative process during hierarchical inference consistent with a serial hypothesis testing strategy.

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This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

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Since the discovery in 1962 of laser action in semiconductor diodes made from GaAs, the study of spontaneous and stimulated light emission from semiconductors has become an exciting new field of semiconductor physics and quantum electronics combined. Included in the limited number of direct-gap semiconductor materials suitable for laser action are the members of the lead salt family, i.e . PbS, PbSe and PbTe. The material used for the experiments described herein is PbTe . The semiconductor PbTe is a narrow band- gap material (Eg = 0.19 electron volt at a temperature of 4.2°K). Therefore, the radiative recombination of electron-hole pairs between the conduction and valence bands produces photons whose wavelength is in the infrared (λ ≈ 6.5 microns in air).

The p-n junction diode is a convenient device in which the spontaneous and stimulated emission of light can be achieved via current flow in the forward-bias direction. Consequently, the experimental devices consist of a group of PbTe p-n junction diodes made from p –type single crystal bulk material. The p - n junctions were formed by an n-type vapor- phase diffusion perpendicular to the (100) plane, with a junction depth of approximately 75 microns. Opposite ends of the diode structure were cleaved to give parallel reflectors, thereby forming the Fabry-Perot cavity needed for a laser oscillator. Since the emission of light originates from the recombination of injected current carriers, the nature of the radiation depends on the injection mechanism.

The total intensity of the light emitted from the PbTe diodes was observed over a current range of three to four orders of magnitude. At the low current levels, the light intensity data were correlated with data obtained on the electrical characteristics of the diodes. In the low current region (region A), the light intensity, current-voltage and capacitance-voltage data are consistent with the model for photon-assisted tunneling. As the current is increased, the light intensity data indicate the occurrence of a change in the current injection mechanism from photon-assisted tunneling (region A) to thermionic emission (region B). With the further increase of the injection level, the photon-field due to light emission in the diode builds up to the point where stimulated emission (oscillation) occurs. The threshold current at which oscillation begins marks the beginning of a region (region C) where the total light intensity increases very rapidly with the increase in current. This rapid increase in intensity is accompanied by an increase in the number of narrow-band oscillating modes. As the photon density in the cavity continues to increase with the injection level, the intensity gradually enters a region of linear dependence on current (region D), i.e. a region of constant (differential) quantum efficiency.

Data obtained from measurements of the stimulated-mode light-intensity profile and the far-field diffraction pattern (both in the direction perpendicular to the junction-plane) indicate that the active region of high gain (i.e. the region where a population inversion exists) extends to approximately a diffusion length on both sides of the junction. The data also indicate that the confinement of the oscillating modes within the diode cavity is due to a variation in the real part of the dielectric constant, caused by the gain in the medium. A value of τ ≈ 10-9 second for the minority- carrier recombination lifetime (at a diode temperature of 20.4°K) is obtained from the above measurements. This value for τ is consistent with other data obtained independently for PbTe crystals.

Data on the threshold current for stimulated emission (for a diode temperature of 20. 4°K) as a function of the reciprocal cavity length were obtained. These data yield a value of J’th = (400 ± 80) amp/cm2 for the threshold current in the limit of an infinitely long diode-cavity. A value of α = (30 ± 15) cm-1 is obtained for the total (bulk) cavity loss constant, in general agreement with independent measurements of free- carrier absorption in PbTe. In addition, the data provide a value of ns ≈ 10% for the internal spontaneous quantum efficiency. The above value for ns yields values of tb ≈ τ ≈ 10-9 second and ts ≈ 10-8 second for the nonradiative and the spontaneous (radiative) lifetimes, respectively.

The external quantum efficiency (nd) for stimulated emission from diode J-2 (at 20.4° K) was calculated by using the total light intensity vs. diode current data, plus accepted values for the material parameters of the mercury- doped germanium detector used for the measurements. The resulting value is nd ≈ 10%-20% for emission from both ends of the cavity. The corresponding radiative power output (at λ = 6.5 micron) is 120-240 milliwatts for a diode current of 6 amps.

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A large array has been used to investigate the P-wave velocity structure of the lower mantle. Linear array processing methods are reviewed and a method of nonlinear processing is presented. Phase velocities, travel times, and relative amplitudes of P waves have been measured with the large array at the Tonto Forest Seismological Observatory in Arizona for 125 earthquakes in the distance range of 30 to 100 degrees. Various models are assumed for the upper 771 km of the mantle and the Wiechert-Herglotz method applied to the phase velocity data to obtain a velocity depth structure for the lower mantle. The phase velocity data indicates the presence of a second-order discontinuity at a depth of 840 km, another at 1150 km, and less pronounced discontinuities at 1320, 1700 and 1950 km. Phase velocities beyond 85 degrees are interpreted in terms of a triplication of the phase velocity curve, and this results in a zone of almost constant velocity between depths of 2670 and 2800 km. Because of the uncertainty in the upper mantle assumptions, a final model cannot be proposed, but it appears that the lower mantle is more complicated than the standard models and there is good evidence for second-order discontinuities below a depth of 1000 km. A tentative lower bound of 2881 km can be placed on the depth to the core. The importance of checking the calculated velocity structure against independently measured travel times is pointed out. Comparisons are also made with observed PcP times and the agreement is good. The method of using measured values of the rate of change of amplitude with distances shows promising results.

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PART I

The total cross-section for the reaction 21Ne(α, n)24Mg has been measured in the energy range 1.49 Mev ≤ Ecm ≤ 2.6 Mev. The cross-section factor, S(O), for this reaction has been determined, by means of an optical model calculation, to be in the range 1.52 x 1012 mb-Mev to 2.67 x 1012 mb-Mev, for interaction radii in the range 5.0 fm to 6.6 fm. With S(O) ≈ 2 x 1012 mb-Mev, the reaction 21Ne(α, n)24Mg can produce a large enough neutron flux to be a significant astrophysical source of neutrons.

PART II

The reaction12C(3He, p)14N has been studied over the energy range 12 Mev ≤ Elab ≤ 18 Mev. Angular distributions of the proton groups leading to the lowest seven levels in 14N were obtained.

Distorted wave calculations, based on two-nucleon transfer theory, were performed, and were found to be reliable for obtaining the value of the orbital angular momentum transferred. The present work shows that such calculations do not yield unambiguous values for the spectroscopic factors.