Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Conflict prevention and decentralized governance: some remarks about the state of the art in theory and practice

Is there a link between decentralized governance and conflict prevention? This article tries to answer the question by presenting the state of the art of the intersection of both concepts. Provided that social conflict is inevitable and given the appearance of new threats and types of violence, as well as new demands for security based on people (human security), our societies should focus on promoting peaceful changes. Through an extensive analysis of the existing literature and the study of several cases, this paper suggests that decentralized governance can contribute to these efforts by transforming conflicts, bringing about power-sharing and inclusion incentives of minority groups. Albeit the complexity of assessing its impact on conflict prevention, it can be contended that decentralized governance might have very positive effects on the reduction of causes that bring about conflicts due to its ability to foster the creation of war/violence preventors. More specifically, this paper argues that decentralization can have a positive impact on the so-called triggers and accelerators (short- and medium-term causes).

Split sex ratios in the social Hymenoptera: a meta-analysis

The study of sex allocation in social Hymenoptera (ants, bees, and wasps) provides an excellent opportunity for testing kin-selection theory and studying conflict resolution. A queen-worker conflict over sex allocation is expected because workers are more related to sisters than to brothers, whereas queens are equally related to daughters and sons. If workers fully control sex allocation, split sex ratio theory predicts that colonies with relatively high or low relatedness asymmetry (the relatedness of workers to females divided by the relatedness of workers to males) should specialize in females or males, respectively. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the magnitude of adaptive sex allocation biasing by workers and degree of support for split sex ratio theory in the social Hymenoptera. Overall, variation in relatedness asymmetry (due to mate number or queen replacement) and variation in queen number (which also affects relatedness asymmetry in some conditions) explained 20.9% and 5% of the variance in sex allocation among colonies, respectively. These results show that workers often bias colony sex allocation in their favor as predicted by split sex ratio theory, even if their control is incomplete and a large part of the variation among colonies has other causes. The explanatory power of split sex ratio theory was close to that of local mate competition and local resource competition in the few species of social Hymenoptera where these factors apply. Hence, three of the most successful theories explaining quantitative variation in sex allocation are based on kin selection.

Dried blood spots collected on filter paper: an international resource for the diagnosis and genetic characterization of human immunodeficiency virus Type-1

The collection of dried blood spots (DBS) on filter paper provides a powerful approach for the development of large-scale, population-based screening programs. DBS methods are particularly valuable in developing countries and isolated rural regions where resources are limited. Large numbers of field specimens can be economically collected and shipped to centralized reference laboratories for genetic and (or) serological analysis. Alternatively, the dried blood can be stored and used as an archival resource to rapidly establish the frequency and distribution of newly recognized mutations, confirm patient identity or track the origins and emergence of newly identified pathogens. In this report, we describe how PCR-based technologies are beginning to interface with international screening programmes for the diagnosis and genetic characterization of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). In particular, we review recent progress using DBS specimens to resolve the HIV-1 infection status of neonates, monitor the genetic evolution of HIV-1 during early infancy and establish a sentinel surveillance system for the systematic monitoring of HIV-1 genetic variation in Asia.

Effect of school based physical activity programme (KISS) on fitness and adiposity in primary schoolchildren: cluster randomised controlled trial.

To assess the effectiveness of a school based physical activity programme during one school year on physical and psychological health in young schoolchildren. Cluster randomised controlled trial. 28 classes from 15 elementary schools in Switzerland randomly selected and assigned in a 4:3 ratio to an intervention (n=16) or control arm (n=12) after stratification for grade (first and fifth grade), from August 2005 to June 2006. 540 children, of whom 502 consented and presented at baseline. Children in the intervention arm (n=297) received a multi-component physical activity programme that included structuring the three existing physical education lessons each week and adding two additional lessons a week, daily short activity breaks, and physical activity homework. Children (n=205) and parents in the control group were not informed of an intervention group. For most outcome measures, the assessors were blinded. Primary outcome measures included body fat (sum of four skinfolds), aerobic fitness (shuttle run test), physical activity (accelerometry), and quality of life (questionnaires). Secondary outcome measures included body mass index and cardiovascular risk score (average z score of waist circumference, mean blood pressure, blood glucose, inverted high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides). 498 children completed the baseline and follow-up assessments (mean age 6.9 (SD 0.3) years for first grade, 11.1 (0.5) years for fifth grade). After adjustment for grade, sex, baseline values, and clustering within classes, children in the intervention arm compared with controls showed more negative changes in the z score of the sum of four skinfolds (-0.12, 95 % confidence interval -0.21 to -0.03; P=0.009). Likewise, their z scores for aerobic fitness increased more favourably (0.17, 0.01 to 0.32; P=0.04), as did those for moderate-vigorous physical activity in school (1.19, 0.78 to 1.60; P<0.001), all day moderate-vigorous physical activity (0.44, 0.05 to 0.82; P=0.03), and total physical activity in school (0.92, 0.35 to 1.50; P=0.003). Z scores for overall daily physical activity (0.21, -0.21 to 0.63) and physical quality of life (0.42, -1.23 to 2.06) as well as psychological quality of life (0.59, -0.85 to 2.03) did not change significantly. A school based multi-component physical activity intervention including compulsory elements improved physical activity and fitness and reduced adiposity in children. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15360785.

The InterPro database, an integrated documentation resource for protein families, domains and functional sites.

Signature databases are vital tools for identifying distant relationships in novel sequences and hence for inferring protein function. InterPro is an integrated documentation resource for protein families, domains and functional sites, which amalgamates the efforts of the PROSITE, PRINTS, Pfam and ProDom database projects. Each InterPro entry includes a functional description, annotation, literature references and links back to the relevant member database(s). Release 2.0 of InterPro (October 2000) contains over 3000 entries, representing families, domains, repeats and sites of post-translational modification encoded by a total of 6804 different regular expressions, profiles, fingerprints and Hidden Markov Models. Each InterPro entry lists all the matches against SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL (more than 1,000,000 hits from 462,500 proteins in SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL). The database is accessible for text- and sequence-based searches at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/interpro/. Questions can be emailed to interhelp@ebi.ac.uk.

Strong isomorphism reductions in complexity theory

We give the first systematic study of strong isomorphism reductions, a notion of reduction more appropriate than polynomial time reduction when, for example, comparing the computational complexity of the isomorphim problem for different classes of structures. We show that the partial ordering of its degrees is quite rich. We analyze its relationship to a further type of reduction between classes of structures based on purely comparing for every n the number of nonisomorphic structures of cardinality at most n in both classes. Furthermore, in a more general setting we address the question of the existence of a maximal element in the partial ordering of the degrees.

Temperament in Bach’s Well-tempered clavier: a historical survey and a new evaluation according to dissonance theory

After a historical survey of temperament in Bach’s Well-Tempered Clavier by Johann Sebastian Bach, an analysis of the work has been made by applying a number of historical good temperaments as well as some recent proposals. The results obtained show that the global dissonance for all preludes and fugues in major keys can be minimized using the Kirnberger II temperament. The method of analysis used for this research is based on the mathematical theories of sensory dissonance, which have been developed by authors such as Hermann Ludwig Ferdinand von Helmholtz, Harry Partch, Reinier Plomp, Willem J. M. Levelt and William A. Sethares

The Nursing and Midwifery Resource - Guidance for Best Practice on the Recruitment of Overseas Nurses and Midwives

Guidance for Best Practice on the Recruitment of Overseas Nurses and Midwives is prepared specifically for employers. The document includes a set of principles which are fundamental to the development of a model of transcultural nursing and midwifery. The document is based on the assumption that each potential employee has the qualifications and experience required to meet the criteria for registration as a nurse or midwife in Ireland Download the Report here

New interactive resource feeds children's curiosity

The Public Health Agency and safefood today (Wednesday 22 June) officially launched Eat, Taste and Grow, a new interactive curriculum based education resource to help increase awareness among primary school children of the origins of their food, local produce and the role this plays in healthy eating. As research in 2006 showed, 18% of children aged 2-15 years in Northern Ireland were reported to be obese; and provisional data in 2008-2009 showed that 22.5% of children entering Year 1 were already overweight (17%) or obese (5%).* The launch of Eat, Taste and Grow is an innovative collaboration between the PHA and safefood that will provide children with lifelong lessons about the food they eat, healthy eating options and the benefits of an active lifestyle.The free teacher-led CD-ROM resource will be sent to every primary school across Northern Ireland by September 2011 and will help increase awareness among primary school children of the origins of their food and local produce, and the role this plays in healthy eating.Speaking at the event, Health Minister Edwin Poots said: "Being obese as a child can store up problems for the future, leading to a reduction in life expectancy and potentially causing other health problems such as increased risk of coronary heart disease, cancer and Type 2 Diabetes."Currently around one in four girls and one in six boys in Primary One (Year 1) are overweight or obese."Many of our children are not as physically active as they should be, nor do they have a healthy, balanced diet."This new resource will help teachers in our primary schools educate children on how to choose what foods are healthier for them which hopefully they will carry with them into adulthood."Dr Eddie Rooney, Chief Executive, PHA said: "The Public Health Agency recognises the need to give every child a healthy start in life. Schools play a vital role in contributing to the development of knowledge and skills necessary to make healthier food choices and laying the foundation for good eating habits which can then be carried through into adulthood. Eat, Taste and Grow is an excellent resource that will help equip teachers to carry out this role and in turn enable children to make healthier choices."Mr Martin Higgins, CEO safefood said: "We know and understand the challenges faced by parents to encourage children to eat healthy foods. As obesity among children continues to rise, this interactive resource will educate children in a fun and engaging way while providing them with the information to make informed, responsible choices throughout their lives."The Eat, Taste and Grow resource is an interactive CD-ROM for use on a whiteboard or computer and is divided into: Foundation, Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2. Topics include 'Where does our food come from?', 'Who produces our food?', 'How food grows' and 'How food is produced and preserved'. Each topic has accompanying teacher's notes and includes ideas for classroom discussions, role play, games and quiz suggestions.

A Process Analysis of Males and Females who Attended a Community Based Addiction Treatment Service: Towards an Expanded Paradigm

A process analysis was conducted in a community - based treatment programme for alcohol abuse. The aims of the study were: to evaluate assessment instruments and measures; to measure change following treatment; to monitor gender differences; to assess the importance of early and current relationships; and to evaluate the effects of therapists. Subjects (n=145, males 83/females 62) completed a semi-structured interview schedule, Severity of Alcohol Dependency Questionnaire (SADQ), Short Alcohol Dependence Data Questionnaire (SADD); General Health Questionnaire (GHQ 12), and Alcohol Problems Questionnaire (APQ). A further three non-standardised self-rated measures were devised by the author. Included was the opportunity to obtain qualitative data. Follow up data was collected at 3, 9 and 15 months following first assessment. The SADD, APQ and consumption measures using detailed drink diaries proved the most relevant assessment measures. Following treatment, there was significant reduction in clients' dependency levels at 3 months, maintained through 9 and 15 months. Key client-rated changes were progress in reducing consumption and alcohol problems leading to a better quality of life and health. Qualitative data augmented these quantitative results. Psychological and acquired cognitive behavioural skills emerged as the main reasons for positive change and the treatment programme was found to have played a significant role in their acquisition. It appears that addressing marital problems can lead to a reduction in alcohol dependency levels. Gender analysis showed that males and females were similar in demographic characteristics, alcohol history details and dependence levels. It was concluded that the differences found did not necessitate different treatment programmes for women. Early family relationships were more problematic for females. Therapist performance varied and that variance was reflected in their clients' outcomes.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

A Study of Alcohol Problems and Marriage from a Treatment Perspective

This thesis is concerned with alcohol problems and marital relationships. It is particularly interested in these dynamics from a treatment perspective. The study addresses theory, research and clinical practice in the field of alcohol problems. It specifically considers these areas as they relate to enhancing understanding of the dynamics between alcohol problems and marriage. The study examines three theoretical paradigms, the disease concept of addiction, behavioural/cognitive behavioural and systems based approaches to understanding alcohol addiction. This provides a multiple theory base from which research in the field and the clinical data collected in the current research is analysed and interpreted. The study reviews research findings that have contributed to the recognition of marital treatment interventions as significant in the alcohol field. It highlights the discrepancies between such research findings and developments in actual clinical practice. In doing so, the study illustrates the gap between theory, research and clinical practice. The need for a more effective framework of information exchange across these areas of activity is identified and a model for better exchange is presented and discussed. This model highlights the importance of including clients' experiences to influence policy, practice, theory and research. In the research, specific attention is focused on the experiences of couples in alcohol treatment. Clinical data is collected from a series of alcohol treatment couples group therapy sessions. The research analysis of the clinical data identifies and extracts concerns as expressed by couples in treatment. Interpretation of these identified concerns or themes is conducted by employing the theoretical constructs of the three selected theoretical paradigms in conjunction with group work theory. On the basis of the findings in this thesis a model for a maritally sensitive assessment framework is developed. The model identifies a number of factors that should be considered in order to enhance appreciation of the interaction between alcohol problems and marital dynamics. This has particular significance for treatment interventions.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

High expectation in non-evidence-based smoking cessation interventions among smokers--the CoLaus study.

To assess the preferred methods to quit smoking among current smokers. Cross-sectional, population-based study conducted in Lausanne between 2003 and 2006 including 988 current smokers. Preference was assessed by questionnaire. Evidence-based (EB) methods were nicotine replacement, bupropion, physician or group consultations; non-EB-based methods were acupuncture, hypnosis and autogenic training. EB methods were frequently (physician consultation: 48%, 95% confidence interval (45-51); nicotine replacement therapy: 35% (32-38)) or rarely (bupropion and group consultations: 13% (11-15)) preferred by the participants. Non-EB methods were preferred by a third (acupuncture: 33% (30-36)), a quarter (hypnosis: 26% (23-29)) or a seventh (autogenic training: 13% (11-15)) of responders. On multivariate analysis, women preferred both EB and non-EB methods more frequently than men (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval: 1.46 (1.10-1.93) and 2.26 (1.72-2.96) for any EB and non-EB method, respectively). Preference for non-EB methods was higher among highly educated participants, while no such relationship was found for EB methods. Many smokers are unaware of the full variety of methods to quit smoking. Better information regarding these methods is necessary.

The effect of patient, provider and financing regulations on the intensity of ambulatory physical therapy episodes : a multilevel analysis based on routinely available data

Background: Many studies have found considerable variations in the resource intensity of physical therapy episodes. Although they have identified several patient-and provider-related factors, few studies have examined their relative explanatory power. We sought to quantify the contribution of patients and providers to these differences and examine how effective Swiss regulations are (nine-session ceiling per prescription and bonus for first treatments). Methods: Our sample consisted of 87,866 first physical therapy episodes performed by 3,365 physiotherapists based on referrals by 6,131 physicians. We modeled the number of visits per episode using a multilevel log linear regression with crossed random effects for physiotherapists and physicians and with fixed effects for cantons. The three-level explanatory variables were patient, physiotherapist and physician characteristics. Results: The median number of sessions was nine (interquartile range 6-13). Physical therapy use increased with age, women, higher health care costs, lower deductibles, surgery and specific conditions. Use rose with the share of nine-session episodes among physiotherapists or physicians, but fell with the share of new treatments. Geographical area had no influence. Most of the variance was explained at the patient level, but the available factors explained only 4% thereof. Physiotherapists and physicians explained only 6% and 5% respectively of the variance, although the available factors explained most of this variance. Regulations were the most powerful factors. Conclusion: Against the backdrop of abundant physical therapy supply, Swiss financial regulations did not restrict utilization. Given that patient-related factors explained most of the variance, this group should be subject to closer scrutiny. Moreover, further research is needed on the determinants of patient demand.