O papel das agências de rating e a dívida pública portuguesa

Durante as últimas décadas observou-se o crescimento da importância das avaliações fornecidas pelas agências de rating, sendo este um fator decisivo na tomada de decisão dos investidores. Também os emitentes de dívida são largamente afetados pelas alterações das classificações atribuídas por estas agências. Esta investigação pretende, por um lado, compreender se estas agências têm poder para conseguirem influenciar a evolução da dívida pública e qual o seu papel no mercado financeiro. Por outro, pretende compreender quais os fatores determinantes da dívida pública portuguesa, bem como a realização de uma análise por percentis com o objetivo de lhe atribuir um rating. Para a análise dos fatores que poderão influenciar a dívida pública, a metodologia utilizada é uma regressão linear múltipla estimada através do Método dos Mínimos Quadrados (Ordinary Least Squares – OLS), em que num cenário inicial era composta por onze variáveis independentes, sendo a dívida pública a variável dependente, para um período compreendido entre 1996 e 2013. Foram realizados vários testes ao modelo inicial, com o objetivo de encontrar um modelo que fosse o mais explicativo possível. Conseguimos ainda identificar uma relação inversa entre o rating atribuído por estas agências e a evolução da dívida pública, no sentido em que para períodos em que o rating desce, o crescimento da dívida é mais acentuado. Não nos foi, no entanto, possível atribuir um rating à dívida pública através de uma análise de percentis.

Elaboração e estruturação de um modelo de rating interno

Temos vindo a assistir nos últimos anos a uma evolução no que respeita à avaliação do risco de crédito. As constantes alterações de regulamentação bancária, que resultam dos Acordos de Basileia, têm vindo a impor novas normas que condicionam a quantidade e a qualidade do risco de crédito que as Instituições de Crédito podem assumir nos seus balanços. É de grande importância as Instituições de Crédito avaliarem o risco de crédito, as garantias e o custo de capital, pois têm um impacto direto na sua gestão nomeadamente quanto à afetação de recursos e proteção contra perdas. Desta forma, pretende-se com o presente trabalho elaborar e estruturar um modelo de rating interno através de técnicas estatísticas, assim como identificar as variáveis estatisticamente relevantes no modelo considerado. Foi delineada uma metodologia de investigação mista, considerando na primeira parte do trabalho uma pesquisa qualitativa e na segunda parte uma abordagem quantitativa. Através da análise documental, fez-se uma abordagem dos conceitos teóricos e da regulamentação que serve de base ao presente trabalho. No estudo de caso, o modelo de rating interno foi desenvolvido utilizando a técnica estatística designada de regressão linear múltipla. A amostra considerada foi obtida através da base de dados SABI e é constituída por cem empresas solventes, situadas na zona de Paredes, num horizonte temporal de 2011-2013. A nossa análise baseou-se em três cenários, correspondendo cada cenário aos dados de cada ano (2011, 2012 e 2013). Para validar os pressupostos do modelo foram efetuados testes estatísticos de Durbin Watson e o teste de significância - F (ANOVA). Por fim, para obtermos a classificação de rating de cada variável foi aplicada a técnica dos percentis. Pela análise dos três cenários considerados, verificou-se que o cenário dois foi o que obteve maior coeficiente de determinação. Verificou-se ainda que as variáveis independentes, rácio de liquidez geral, grau de cobertura do ativo total pelo fundo de maneio e rácio de endividamento global são estatisticamente relevantes.

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Business concept design of an innovative product: Partnership between Nmusic and Rovio Entertainment Ltd.

Field Lab in Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

How can clusters help in the product type choice? The case of a specialized retail store

This work project (WP) is a study about a clustering strategy for Sport Zone. The general cluster study’s objective is to create groups such that within each group the individuals are similar to each other, but should be different among groups. The clusters creation is a mix of common sense, trial and error and some statistical supporting techniques. Our particular objective is to support category managers to better define the product type to be displayed in the stores’ shelves by doing store clusters. This research was carried out for Sport Zone, and comprises an objective definition, a literature review, the clustering activity itself, some factor analysis and a discriminant analysis to better frame our work. Together with this quantitative part, a survey addressed to category managers to better understand their key drivers, for choosing the type of product of each store, was carried out. Based in a non-random sample of 65 stores with data referring to 2013, the final result was the choice of 6 store clusters (Figure 1) which were individually characterized as the main outcome of this work. In what relates to our selected variables, all were important for the distinction between clusters, which proves the adequacy of their choice. The interpretation of the results gives category managers a tool to understand which products best fit the clustered stores. Furthermore, as a side finding thanks to the clusterization, a STP (Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning) was initiated, being this WP the first steps of a continuous process.

Product relatedness role on driving industrial policy success

This thesis aims to study how product relatedness to the current pattern of specialization influences the success of industrial policies in underdeveloped sectors. Drawing from Hausmann and Klinger (2006), this work extends the existing literature on the importance of proximity spillovers to explain economic development by focusing on underdeveloped sectors. We find that investment's success in an underdeveloped sector is more likely if it is highly related to the current pattern of specialization. However, heterogeneity amongst sectors is remarkable. Moreover, industrial policy cases are sometimes successful despite the bad odds provided by this criterion, suggesting further factors should be considered.

Strategic design of There App’s business model: From product to multi-sided platform

The following work project illustrates the strategic issues There App, a mobile application, faces regarding the opportunity to expand from its current state as a product to a multisided platform. Initially, a market analysis is performed to identify the ideal customer groups to be integrated in the platform. Strategic design issues are then discussed on how to best match its value proposition with the identified market opportunity. Suggestions on how the company should organize its resources and operational processes to best deliver on its value proposition complete the work.

Can a lemon based Sagres product attract consumers that don't drink beer?

The purpose of this project is to understand if the brand Sagres is damaging the product Sagres Radler. The beer market in Portugal was studied and focus groups were used to perceive the impact of the brand in the product. The mother brand is bringing the beer association into a product designed to engage people that don’t like beer. With the insights, a new proposal was drawn and tested. Although it was not possible to prove that the new concept is better for the population, there are strong indications that the brand isn’t enabling the achievement of the proposed target.

Rating corporate groups a modelling experience

This paper aims to provide a model that allows BPI to measure the credit risk, through its rating scale, of the subsidiaries included in the corporate groups who are their clients. This model should be simple enough to be applied in practice, accurate, and must give consistent results in comparison to what have been the ratings given by the bank. The model proposed includes operational, strategic, and financial factors and ends up giving one of three results: no support, partial support, or full support from the holding to the subsidiary, and each of them translates in adjustments in each subsidiary’s credit rating. As it would be expectable, most of the subsidiaries should have the same credit rating of its parent company.

Product quality judgments in a two-sequence cue environment

Previous research demonstrated that the sequence of informational cues and the level of distraction have an impact on the judgment of a product’s quality. This study investigates the influence of the force behind the processing of these cues, working memory (WM). The results indicate that without distraction, consumers with low and high WM capacity (WMC) equally base their product evaluation on the first sequential cue. In the presence of a distractor, however, low WM individuals are no longer able to recall the initial cue, and thus derive their product judgment from the final cue. Moreover, evidence of intercultural differences in the perception of product related cues, and their aptitude for signaling a favorable product quality is provided.

Chesney's: Growing through product expansion

Chesney’s: Growing Through Product Expansion The purpose of this work project is to have a better understanding about how to proceed when a company is challenged by new options to grow and thrive. It aims to decode the next direction of Chesney’s Ltd, a United Kingdom leading company in luxurious replicas of antique fireplaces, wood burning stoves and other architectural pieces. The work project relies on the concepts of strategy, innovation and design thinking in order to encourage dynamic activities within the company. Chesney’s continuously tries to improve and innovate and this work project will assess whether the possible options have strategic fit with the purpose of the company and consequently, create an introduction plan for the opportunity that shows higher probabilities of becoming successful.

The emergence of product certification systems as trade barriers

This paper addresses the growing difficulties automobile manufacturers face within their after sales business: an increasing number of trade obstacles set up by import countries discriminates against the foreign suppliers and impedes the international sales of genuine parts. The purpose of the study is to explore the emergence of trade restrictive product certification systems, which affect spare parts exports of automobile manufacturers. The methodology used includes review of the literature and an empirical study based on qualitative interviews with representatives of major stakeholders of the automotive after sales business. Relevant key drivers, which initiate the introduction of technical regulations in importing countries, are identified and analysed to evaluate their effect on the emerging trade policy. The analysis of the key drivers outlines that several interacting components, such as the global competitiveness of the country, macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, and certain country-specific variables induce trade restrictive product certification systems. The findings allow for an early detection of the emergence of product certification systems and provide a means to early recognise the risks and opportunities for the sales of automotive spare parts in the automakers’ target markets. This allows the manufacturers to react immediately and adapt in time to the upcoming changes.

O sexo e a Cidade e as marcas: análise dos efeitos do product placement nos jovens portugueses

Dissertação de Mestrado em Comunicação Social