Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Skeletal muscle triglycerides, diacylglycerols, and ceramides in insulin resistance: another paradox in endurance-trained athletes?

OBJECTIVE-Chronic exercise and obesity both increase intra-myocellular triglycerides (IMTGs) despite having opposing effects on insulin sensitivity. We hypothesized that chronically exercise-trained muscle would be characterized by lower skeletal muscle diacylglycerols (DAGs) and ceramides despite higher IMTGs and would account for its higher insulin sensitivity. We also hypothesized that the expression of key skeletal muscle proteins involved in lipid droplet hydrolysis, DAG formation, and fatty-acid partitioning and oxidation would be associated with the lipotoxic phenotype.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-A total of 14 normal-weight, endurance-trained athletes (NWA group) and 7 normal-weight sedentary (NWS group) and 21 obese sedentary (OBS group) volunteers were studied. Insulin sensitivity was assessed by glucose clamps. IMTGs, DAGs, ceramides, and protein expression were measured in muscle biopsies.RESULTS-DAG content in the NWA group was approximately twofold higher than in the OBS group and similar to 50% higher than in the NWS group, corresponding to higher insulin sensitivity. While certain DAG moieties clearly were associated with better insulin sensitivity, other species were not. Ceramide content was higher in insulin-resistant obese muscle. The expression of OXPAT/perilipin-5, adipose triglyceride lipase, and stearoyl-CoA desaturase protein was higher in the NWA group, corresponding to a higher mitochondrial content, proportion of type 1 myocytes, DAGs, and insulin sensitivity.CONCLUSIONS-Total myocellular DAGs were markedly higher in highly trained athletes, corresponding with higher insulin sensitivity, and suggest a more complex role for DAGs in insulin action. Our data also provide additional evidence in humans linking ceramides to insulin resistance. Finally, this study provides novel evidence supporting a role for specific skeletal muscle proteins involved in intramyocellular lipids, mitochondrial oxidative capacity, and insulin resistance. Diabetes 60:2588-2597, 2011

c-Myc controls the balance between hematopoietic stem cell self-renewal and differentiation.

The activity of adult stem cells is essential to replenish mature cells constantly lost due to normal tissue turnover. By a poorly understood mechanism, stem cells are maintained through self-renewal while concomitantly producing differentiated progeny. Here, we provide genetic evidence for an unexpected function of the c-Myc protein in the homeostasis of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). Conditional elimination of c-Myc activity in the bone marrow (BM) results in severe cytopenia and accumulation of HSCs in situ. Mutant HSCs self-renew and accumulate due to their failure to initiate normal stem cell differentiation. Impaired differentiation of c-Myc-deficient HSCs is linked to their localization in the differentiation preventative BM niche environment, and correlates with up-regulation of N-cadherin and a number of adhesion receptors, suggesting that release of HSCs from the stem cell niche requires c-Myc activity. Accordingly, enforced c-Myc expression in HSCs represses N-cadherin and integrins leading to loss of self-renewal activity at the expense of differentiation. Endogenous c-Myc is differentially expressed and induced upon differentiation of long-term HSCs. Collectively, our data indicate that c-Myc controls the balance between stem cell self-renewal and differentiation, presumably by regulating the interaction between HSCs and their niche.

Sähköasemaprojektoinnin kehittäminen Helsingin Energiassa

Työssä käsitellään Helsingin Energian sähköasemaprojektoinnin kehittämistä. Helsingin kaupunkiolosuhteissa valmiiden ratkaisujen hyödyntäminen ei ole usein mahdollista, vaan asemat on suunniteltava itsenäisinä, erilaisina projekteina. Rakennettavat sähköasemat ovat suuria ja eri osien kilpailuttamisella saavutetaan taloudellista hyötyä. HelenEngineeringillä on mahdollisuus toimia haastavissa projekteissa konsulttimaisena projektinhoitajana. Kun sähköasemaprojektien tarve on jatkuva, Helsingin Energialla on syytä säilyttää oma sähköasemaprojektointiosaaminen. Työtä varten tehtiin haastattelututkimus sähköasemaprojekteja toteuttaville yrityksille ja perehdyttiin kahteen viimeisimpään Helsingin Energialla toteutettuun sähköasemaprojektiin, jotka olivat Viikinmäen 20 kV ja Suvilahden110 kV sähköasemien uusimiset. Näiden perusteella muodostettiin malli toteuttaasähköasemaprojekteja Helsingin Energialla. Malli sisältää muun muassa rungon projektivaiheistukselle, ositukselle, organisaatiokaaviolle, aikataululle ja näkökulmia sopimusten laadintaan. Mallin täysimittainen soveltaminen vaatii kuitenkinjatkuvaa, suunniteltua kehitystyötä. Myös mallia on kehitettävä jatkuvasti.

Transmission of MRSA and MSSA between humans and farm animals

Human nares are the main niche of Staphylococcus aureus, but farm animals can be also infected (cows) or colonized (pigs) constituting significant reservoir of this pathogen. Previous studies indicated that human and animal strains are quite distinct but the extent of cross-species specialization and transmission remains largely unknown. However, recent reports from several European countries as well as USA and Canada have indicated that employment in farming is an emerging risk factor for MRSA carriage. Pigs were found to be frequently colonized with MRSA, usually with a strain belonging to CC398. It is not known whether animal-human transmission was specific to this particular MRSA strain. S. aureus isolates from cow mastitis and pig colonization isolates were collected in parallel to nasal swab isolates from the animals' caretakers. The isolates were genotyped by AFLP, spatyping, and when appropriate by MLST. The isolates from cow mastitis were genetically uniform in comparison with human isolates. They were quite distinct from farmers\' carriage isolates, indicating pronounced hostspecialization. However, several cases where an infected cow and a colonized farmer had the same strain were detected, including one farm where two farmers were colonized and two cows were infected with MRSA belonging to CC398. Pig isolates were genetically more diverse than cow isolates. They were different from both human and cow isolates with one notable exception. Large fraction of pigs (20%) and pig caretakers (50%) were colonized with isolates belonging to CC398, majority of which were MSSA (2 cases of MRSA). These results indicate that host specialization in S. aureus is quite pronounced. Transmission between humans and farm animals was consequently quite rare. Both MSSA and MRSA strains belonging to otherwise pig-specific CC398 had increased capacity to colonize humans. Study of the genetic factors responsible for host specialization is underway.

Market potentialfor free-cutting steels in Europe

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää tilannetta Euroopan automaattiteräsmarkkinoilla ja sen perusteella arvioida Imatra Steelin mahdollisuuksia kilpailla kyseessä olevilla markkinoilla. Tärkein tavoite oli kokonaismarkkinapotentiaalin arvioiminen Saksan, Ruotsin, Englannin ja Suomen markkinoilla. Lisäksi selvitettiin käytetyt automaattiteräslajit ja mitta-alue, hintataso sekä koneistukseenliittyviä teknisiä yksityiskohtia.Tavoitteena oli myös kartoittaa asenteita ja mielipiteitä mahdollisesta lyijyn käytön kieltämisestä teräksen seosaineena tulevaisuudessa. Paremman kokonaiskuvan saamiseksi analysoitiin myös kilpailutilannetta Euroopassa. Työn teoriakehyksessä tutkittiin teollisuustuotteiden markkinatutkimuksen suorittamisen erityispiirteitä, markkinapotentiaalin määrittämiseen liittyviä käsitteitä ja kilpailija-analyysin suorittamista. Empiirinen tutkimus suoritettiin pääasiassa asiantuntijoiden haastattelujen ja kyselyjen avulla. Haastateltavina oli tukkureita ja loppukäyttäjiä. Kilpailutilanteen kartoittaminen perustuu lähinnä sekundääriseen tietoon, Internet-sivuihin ja myyntikonttoreiden aikaisemmin keräämään tietoon.Automaattiterästen kokonaispotentiaaliksi Euroopassa arvioitiin miljoona tonnia ja suurin osa kaupasta käydään tutkituilla markkina-alueilla. Suurimmat volyymit sijoittuvat pienemmille mitta-alueille, Æ 12 - 50 mm. Markkinoita hallitsee muutama suuri teräksen valmistaja. Imatra Steel kohtuullisen pienenä toimittajana ei pysty kilpailemaan volyymilla ja tuotevalikoimallaan suurten teräsjättien kanssa. Imatra Steelin mahdollinen strategiavaihtoehto olisi yrittää löytää ne kapeat segmentit ja markkinaraot, joilla sen tuotteet jatietotaito tuovat asiakkaalle suurimman mahdollisen hyödyn verrattuna kilpailijoihin.

Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions

1. Biogeographical models of species' distributions are essential tools for assessing impacts of changing environmental conditions on natural communities and ecosystems. Practitioners need more reliable predictions to integrate into conservation planning (e.g. reserve design and management). 2. Most models still largely ignore or inappropriately take into account important features of species' distributions, such as spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and migration, biotic and environmental interactions. Whether distributions of natural communities or ecosystems are better modelled by assembling individual species' predictions in a bottom-up approach or modelled as collective entities is another important issue. An international workshop was organized to address these issues. 3. We discuss more specifically six issues in a methodological framework for generalized regression: (i) links with ecological theory; (ii) optimal use of existing data and artificially generated data; (iii) incorporating spatial context; (iv) integrating ecological and environmental interactions; (v) assessing prediction errors and uncertainties; and (vi) predicting distributions of communities or collective properties of biodiversity. 4. Synthesis and applications. Better predictions of the effects of impacts on biological communities and ecosystems can emerge only from more robust species' distribution models and better documentation of the uncertainty associated with these models. An improved understanding of causes of species' distributions, especially at their range limits, as well as of ecological assembly rules and ecosystem functioning, is necessary if further progress is to be made. A better collaborative effort between theoretical and functional ecologists, ecological modellers and statisticians is required to reach these goals.

Bacterial variations on the methionine salvage pathway.

BACKGROUND: The thiomethyl group of S-adenosylmethionine is often recycled as methionine from methylthioadenosine. The corresponding pathway has been unravelled in Bacillus subtilis. However methylthioadenosine is subjected to alternative degradative pathways depending on the organism. RESULTS: This work uses genome in silico analysis to propose methionine salvage pathways for Klebsiella pneumoniae, Leptospira interrogans, Thermoanaerobacter tengcongensis and Xylella fastidiosa. Experiments performed with mutants of B. subtilis and Pseudomonas aeruginosa substantiate the hypotheses proposed. The enzymes that catalyze the reactions are recruited from a variety of origins. The first, ubiquitous, enzyme of the pathway, MtnA (methylthioribose-1-phosphate isomerase), belongs to a family of proteins related to eukaryotic intiation factor 2B alpha. mtnB codes for a methylthioribulose-1-phosphate dehydratase. Two reactions follow, that of an enolase and that of a phosphatase. While in B. subtilis this is performed by two distinct polypeptides, in the other organisms analyzed here an enolase-phosphatase yields 1,2-dihydroxy-3-keto-5-methylthiopentene. In the presence of dioxygen an aci-reductone dioxygenase yields the immediate precursor of methionine, ketomethylthiobutyrate. Under some conditions this enzyme produces carbon monoxide in B. subtilis, suggesting a route for a new gaseous mediator in bacteria. Ketomethylthiobutyrate is finally transaminated by an aminotransferase that exists usually as a broad specificity enzyme (often able to transaminate aromatic aminoacid keto-acid precursors or histidinol-phosphate). CONCLUSION: A functional methionine salvage pathway was experimentally demonstrated, for the first time, in P. aeruginosa. Apparently, methionine salvage pathways are frequent in Bacteria (and in Eukarya), with recruitment of different polypeptides to perform the needed reactions (an ancestor of a translation initiation factor and RuBisCO, as an enolase, in some Firmicutes). Many are highly dependent on the presence of oxygen, suggesting that the ecological niche may play an important role for the existence and/or metabolic steps of the pathway, even in phylogenetically related bacteria. Further work is needed to uncover the corresponding steps when dioxygen is scarce or absent (this is important to explore the presence of the pathway in Archaea). The thermophile T. tengcongensis, that thrives in the absence of oxygen, appears to possess the pathway. It will be an interesting link to uncover the missing reactions in anaerobic environments.

A New Species of Sand Racer, Psammodromus (Squamata: Lacertidae), from the Western Iberian Peninsula

A new species of lacertid lizard of the genus Psammodromus is described from the Iberian Peninsula. Genetic and recently published phenotypic data support the differentiation of Psammodromus hispanicus into three, and not as previously suggested two, distinct lineages. Age estimates, lineage allopatry, the lack of mitochondrial and nuclear haplotype sharing between lineages, ecological niche divergence, and the current biogeographic distribution, indicated that the three lineages correspond to three independent species. Here, we describe a new species, Psammodromus occidentalis sp. n., which is genetically different from the other sand racers and differentiated by the number of femoral pores, number of throat scales, snout shape, head ratio, green nuptial coloration, and number of supralabial scales below the subocular scale. We also propose to upgrade the two previously recognized subspecies, Psammodromus hispanicus hispanicus Fitzinger, 1826 from central Spain and Psammodromus hispanicus edwardsianus (Dugès, 1829) from eastern Spain, to the species level: Psammodromus hispanicus stat. nov. and Psammodromus edwardsianus stat. nov. Given that the holotype of Psammodromus hispanicus was lost, we designate a neotype. We also analysed museum specimens of P. blanci, P. microdactylus and P. algirus to describe differentiation of the Psammodromus hispanicus lineages/species from their closest relatives.

Identification of in vitro HSC fate regulators by differential lipid raft clustering.

Most hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) in the bone marrow reside in a quiescent state and occasionally enter the cell cycle upon cytokine-induced activation. Although the mechanisms regulating HSC quiescence and activation remain poorly defined, recent studies have revealed a role of lipid raft clustering (LRC) in HSC activation. Here, we tested the hypothesis that changes in lipid raft distribution could serve as an indicator of the quiescent and activated state of HSCs in response to putative niche signals. A semi-automated image analysis tool was developed to map the presence or absence of lipid raft clusters in live HSCs cultured for just one hour in serum-free medium supplemented with stem cell factor (SCF). By screening the ability of 19 protein candidates to alter lipid raft dynamics, we identified six factors that induced either a marked decrease (Wnt5a, Wnt3a and Osteopontin) or increase (IL3, IL6 and VEGF) in LRC. Cell cycle kinetics of single HSCs exposed to these factors revealed a correlation of LRC dynamics and proliferation kinetics: factors that decreased LRC slowed down cell cycle kinetics, while factors that increased LRC led to faster and more synchronous cycling. The possibility of identifying, by LRC analysis at very early time points, whether a stem cell is activated and possibly committed upon exposure to a signaling cue of interest could open up new avenues for large-scale screening efforts.

Contemporary engagements within corridors of the past: temporal elasticity, graffiti, and the materiality of St. Rock Street, Barcelona

In a medieval Barcelonan side-street, urine, rubbish, and a bewildering array of graphic imagery splatters the narrowing walls between two major thoroughfares. A contemporary conflict between residents, unknown artists and others is played out using banners, bottles, stickers, posters, stencils, spray paint, and bodily substances. In this shadowed liminality, local and global debates are superimposed upon substructures constructed from disease, prostitution, and the Saint of the Plague. The continuing urban struggle constitutes temporal statements of dirt and purity, violence and humour, dominance and resistance, death and salvation. Like the renovated facades masking the crumbling remains of structures long neglected, the government’s literal whitewashing of the art is a temporal cover-up of a discursive symptom stretching from deeply embedded preconditions. However, from his niche in the angular bend of the alley bearing his name, the statue of St. Rock remains unblinkingly staring, raised above the contestations expressed below.

Työvoimapula ja osaaminen: analyysi mediateksteistä

Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selventää miten Talouselämä-lehti tuo esille yritysten kokemaa työvoimapulaa ja sen hallintakeinoja erityisesti osaaja näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tulkitaTalouselämä-lehden artikkeleihin perustuvan empiirisen aineiston perusteella sekä aikaisemman kirjallisuuden perusteella, millä keinoilla yritykset voivat varautua työvoimapulaan ja menestyä kilpailussa niukoilla työmarkkinoilla. Tutkimus tuo esille myös Talouselämä lehden representoiman osaajan profiilin. Tutkimus onlaadullinen tutkimus. Aineisto koostuu Talouselämä-lehden vuoden 2002 ja toukokuun 2006 välisenä aikana ilmestyneistä artikkeleista. Tuloksina saatiin selville, että Talouselämä-lehti tuo esille työvoimapulaa laadullista ja määrällistä työvoimapulaa kuvaavien ja asiantuntijoiden varoittelevien ja neuvovien puheiden kautta. Tutkimuskontekstin sisällä osaavan työvoiman pula koetaan merkittävämpänä ongelmana kuin määrällinen työvoimapula. Yritysten tulee varautua henkilöstöstrategian kautta siihen, että yrityksen osaamistarpeet täyttyvät tulevaisuudessa. Osaajien houkutteluun tulee keksiä luovia ja yksilöllisiä keinoja sekä myydä avoimet työtehtävät osaajille markkinoinnillisin keinoin.

Divergent and narrower climatic niches characterize polyploid species of European primroses in Primula sect. Aleuritia

Aim It is hypothesized that the ecological niches of polyploids should be both distinct and broader than those of diploids - characteristics that might have allowed the successful colonization of open habitats by polyploids during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. Here, we test these hypotheses by quantifying and comparing the ecological niches and niche breadths of a group of European primroses. Location Europe. Methods We gathered georeferenced data of four related species in Primula sect. Aleuritia at different ploidy levels (diploid, tetraploid, hexaploid and octoploid) and used seven bioclimatic variables to quantify niche overlap between species by applying a series of univariate and multivariate analyses combined with modelling techniques. We also employed permutation-based tests to evaluate niche similarity between the four species. Niche breadth for each species was evaluated both in the multivariate environmental space and in geographical space. Results The four species differed significantly from each other in mono-dimensional comparisons of climatological variables and occupied distinct habitats in the multi-dimensional environmental space. The majority of the permutation-based tests either indicated that the four species differed significantly in their habitat preferences and ecological niches or did not support significant niche similarity. Furthermore, our results revealed narrower niche breadths and geographical ranges in species of P. sect. Aleuritia at higher ploidy levels. Main conclusions The detected ecological differentiation between the four species of P. sect. Aleuritia at different ploidy levels is consistent with the hypothesis that polyploids occupy distinct ecological niches that differ from those of their diploid relative. Contrary to expectations, we find that polyploid species of P. sect. Aleuritia occupy narrower environmental and geographical spaces than their diploid relative. These results on the ecological niches of closely related polyploid and diploid species highlight factors that potentially contribute to the evolution and distribution of polyploid species.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Mekanismien dynamiikan simuloinnissa sovellettavia numeerisia- ja mallinnusmenetelmiä

Koneet voidaan usein jakaa osajärjestelmiin, joita ovat ohjaus- ja säätöjärjestelmät, voimaa tuottavat toimilaitteet ja voiman välittävät mekanismit. Eri osajärjestelmiä on simuloitu tietokoneavusteisesti jo usean vuosikymmenen ajan. Osajärjestelmien yhdistäminen on kuitenkin uudempi ilmiö. Usein esimerkiksi mekanismien mallinnuksessa toimilaitteen tuottama voimaon kuvattu vakiona, tai ajan funktiona muuttuvana voimana. Vastaavasti toimilaitteiden analysoinnissa mekanismin toimilaitteeseen välittämä kuormitus on kuvattu vakiovoimana, tai ajan funktiona työkiertoa kuvaavana kuormituksena. Kun osajärjestelmät on erotettu toisistaan, on niiden välistenvuorovaikutuksien tarkastelu erittäin epätarkkaa. Samoin osajärjestelmän vaikutuksen huomioiminen koko järjestelmän käyttäytymissä on hankalaa. Mekanismien dynamiikan mallinnukseen on kehitetty erityisesti tietokoneille soveltuvia numeerisia mallinnusmenetelmiä. Useimmat menetelmistä perustuvat Lagrangen menetelmään, joka mahdollistaa vapaasti valittaviin koordinaattimuuttujiin perustuvan mallinnuksen. Numeerista ratkaisun mahdollistamiseksi menetelmän avulla muodostettua differentiaali-algebraaliyhtälöryhmää joudutaan muokkaamaan esim. derivoimalla rajoiteyhtälöitä kahteen kertaan. Menetelmän alkuperäisessä numeerisissa ratkaisuissa kaikki mekanismia kuvaavat yleistetyt koordinaatit integroidaan jokaisella aika-askeleella. Tästä perusmenetelmästä johdetuissa menetelmissä riippumattomat yleistetyt koordinaatit joko integroidaan ja riippuvat koordinaatit ratkaistaan rajoiteyhtälöiden perusteella tai yhtälöryhmän kokoa pienennetään esim. käyttämällä nopeus- ja kiihtyvyysanalyyseissä eri kiertymäkoordinaatteja kuin asema-analyysissä. Useimmat integrointimenetelmät on alun perin tarkoitettu differentiaaliyhtälöiden (ODE) ratkaisuunjolloin yhtälöryhmään liitetyt niveliä kuvaavat algebraaliset rajoiteyhtälöt saattavat aiheuttaa ongelmia. Nivelrajoitteiden virheiden korjaus, stabilointi, on erittäin tärkeää mekanismien dynamiikan simuloinnin onnistumisen ja tulosten oikeellisuuden kannalta. Mallinnusmenetelmien johtamisessa käytetyn virtuaalisen työn periaatteen oletuksena nimittäin on, etteivät rajoitevoimat tee työtä, eli rajoitteiden vastaista siirtymää ei tapahdu. Varsinkaan monimutkaisten järjestelmien pidemmissä analyyseissä nivelrajoitteet eivät toteudu tarkasti. Tällöin järjestelmän energiatasapainoei toteudu ja järjestelmään muodostuu virtuaalista energiaa, joka rikkoo virtuaalisen työn periaatetta, Tästä syystä tulokset eivät enää pidäpaikkaansa. Tässä raportissa tarkastellaan erityyppisiä mallinnus- ja ratkaisumenetelmiä, ja vertaillaan niiden toimivuutta yksinkertaisten mekanismien numeerisessa ratkaisussa. Menetelmien toimivuutta tarkastellaan ratkaisun tehokkuuden, nivelrajoitteiden toteutumisen ja energiatasapainon säilymisen kannalta.