Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared

Using the wisdom of crowds---combining many individual forecasts to obtain an aggregate estimate---can be an effective technique for improving forecast accuracy. When individual forecasts are drawn from independent and identical information sources, a simple average provides the optimal crowd forecast. However, correlated forecast errors greatly limit the ability of the wisdom of crowds to recover the truth. In practice, this dependence often emerges because information is shared: forecasters may to a large extent draw on the same data when formulating their responses.

To address this problem, I propose an elicitation procedure in which each respondent is asked to provide both their own best forecast and a guess of the average forecast that will be given by all other respondents. I study optimal responses in a stylized information setting and develop an aggregation method, called pivoting, which separates individual forecasts into shared and private information and then recombines these results in the optimal manner. I develop a tailored pivoting procedure for each of three information models, and introduce a simple and robust variant that outperforms the simple average across a variety of settings.

In three experiments, I investigate the method and the accuracy of the crowd forecasts. In the first study, I vary the shared and private information in a controlled environment, while the latter two studies examine forecasts in real-world contexts. Overall, the data suggest that a simple minimal pivoting procedure provides an effective aggregation technique that can significantly outperform the crowd average.

Transformative Learning Theory and Its Relevance to Managing Group Dynamics in a Competitive Work Environment

In any environment, group dynamics would exist. How we deal with it in a competitive work environment defines who we are using transformative learning. This paper provides useful information from a number of theorists who share perspectives on the complex nature of groups.

Collecting information and identification of New England Seamount Geodia species

This dataset gives the collecting information of New England Seamount Geodia species from the Yale Peabody Museum. Museum numbers, fixation processing and Genbank accession numbers are also given.

A Review on Repeated Games and Reputations with Incomplete Information

In this project we review the effects of reputation within the context of game theory. This is done through a study of two key papers. First, we examine a paper from Fudenberg and Levine: Reputation and Equilibrium Selection in Games with a Patient Player (1989). We add to this a review Gossner’s Simple Bounds on the Value of a Reputation (2011). We look specifically at scenarios in which a long-run player faces a series of short-run opponents, and how the former may develop a reputation. In turn, we show how reputation leads directly to both lower and upper bounds on the long-run player’s payoffs.

Children’s access to beneficial information in Arab states: Implementation of Article 17 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child in Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates

In theory, the multiple platforms and transnational nature of digital media, along with a related proliferation of diverse forms of content, make it easier for children’s right to access socially and culturally beneficial information and material to be realised, as required by Article 17 of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC). Drawing on data collected during research on children’s screen content in the Arab world, combined with scrutiny of documents collated by the Committee on the Rights of the Child, which monitors compliance with the CRC, this paper explores how three Arab countries, Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, presented their efforts to implement Article 17 as part of their periodic reporting on their overall performance in putting the CRC into effect. It uncovers tensions over the relationship between provision, participation and protection in relation to media, reveals that Article 17 is liable to get less attention than it deserves in contexts where governments keep a tight grip on media, and that, by appearing to give it a lower priority, all parties neglect the intersection between human rights in relation to media and children’s rights.

Net-surplus as a useful tool to analyse financial information in co-op societies

This paper aims to analyse a sample of Galician co-ops to verify whether or not it is possible to deduce different financial behaviours among co-op partners from the amount of net-surplus. To this end, our study adds net-surplus to the variation registered in some account entries so that other residual incomes yielded by the co-op may be considered. The distribution of these revenues shows that partners do not usually choose to fully anticipate residual incomes. This reveals that some firms follow a positive net-surplus strategy, which is actually different from the null net-surplus strategy asserted by the classical financial theory. Furthermore, results show that differences between both strategies are statistically significant. This opens a path to future research on determinants explaining why co-op partners voluntarily renounce to anticipating these residual incomes. Such behaviour only arises when yearly accounts render a positive result, thereby making the accounting net-surplus a useful tool to analyse financial information in co-op societies.

Theory as Noir: a cartoon version of an academic article

Expanding on the growing movement to take academic and other erudite subjugated knowledges and distill them into some graphic form, this “cartoon” is a recounting of the author’s 2014 article,  “Big Data, Actionable Information, Scientific Knowledge and the Goal of Control,” Teknokultura, Vol. 11/no. 3, pp. 529-54.  It is an analysis of the idea of Big Data and an argument that its power relies on its instrumentalist specificity and not its extent. Mind control research in general and optogenetics in particular are the case study. Noir seems an appropriate aesthetic for this analysis, so direct quotes from the article are illustrated by publically available screen shots from iconic and unknown films of the 20th century. The only addition to the original article is a framing insight from the admirable activist network CrimethInc. 

Secrecy Capacity Analysis Over κ–μ Fading Channels: Theory and Applications

In this paper, we consider the transmission of confidential information over a κ-μ fading channel in the presence of an eavesdropper who also experiences κ-μ fading. In particular, we obtain novel analytical solutions for the probability of strictly positive secrecy capacity (SPSC) and a lower bound of secure outage probability (SOPL) for independent and non-identically distributed channel coefficients without parameter constraints. We also provide a closed-form expression for the probability of SPSC when the μ parameter is assumed to take positive integer values. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to verify the derived results. The versatility of the κ-μ fading model means that the results presented in this paper can be used to determine the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a large number of other fading scenarios, such as Rayleigh, Rice (Nakagamin), Nakagami-m, One-Sided Gaussian, and mixtures of these common fading models. In addition, due to the duality of the analysis of secrecy capacity and co-channel interference (CCI), the results presented here will have immediate applicability in the analysis of outage probability in wireless systems affected by CCI and background noise (BN). To demonstrate the efficacy of the novel formulations proposed here, we use the derived equations to provide a useful insight into the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a range of emerging wireless applications, such as cellular device-to-device, peer-to-peer, vehicle-to-vehicle, and body centric communications using data obtained from real channel measurements.

Creating Educational Immersive Environments Using a Computer Game Engine: Case Studies and Design Theory

This paper aims to crystallize recent research performed at the University of Worcester to investigate the feasibility of using the commercial game engine ‘Unreal Tournament 2004’ (UT2004) to produce ‘Educational Immersive Environments’ (EIEs) suitable for education and training. Our research has been supported by the UK Higher Education Academy. We discuss both practical and theoretical aspects of EIEs. The practical aspects include the production of EIEs to support high school physics education, the education of architects, and the learning of literacy by primary school children. This research is based on the development of our novel instructional medium, ‘UnrealPowerPoint’. Our fundamental guiding principles are that, first, pedagogy must inform technology, and second, that both teachers and pupils should be empowered to produce educational materials. Our work is informed by current educational theories such as constructivism, experiential learning and socio-cultural approaches as well as elements of instructional design and game principles.

Context-Based Sound and the Ecological Theory of Perception

This paper aims to investigate the ways in which context-based sonic art is capable of furthering a knowledge and understanding of place based on the initial perceptual encounter. How might this perceptual encounter operate in terms of a sound work’s affective dimension? To explore these issues I draw upon James J. Gibson’s ecological theory of perception and Gernot Böhme’s concept of an ‘aesthetic of atmospheres’. Within the ecological model of perception an individual can be regarded as a ‘perceptual system’: a mobile organism that seeks information from a coherent environment. I relate this concept to notions of the spatial address of environmental sound work in order to explore (a) how the human perceptual apparatus relates to the sonic environment in its mediated form and (b) how this impacts on individuals’ ability to experience such work as complex sonic ‘environments’. Can the ecological theory of perception aid the understanding of how the listener engages with context-based work? In proposing answers to this question, this paper advances a coherent analytical framework that may lead us to a more systematic grasp of the ways in which individuals engage aesthetically with sonic space and environment. I illustrate this methodology through an examination of some of the recorded work of sound artist Chris Watson.

Strategic Information Disclosure through Integrated Reporting : A study on OMXS30-listed companies’ compliance with the <IR> Framework content element Strategy and Resource Allocation

Background and problem – As a result of financial crises and the realization of a broader stakeholder network, recent decades have seen an increase in stakeholder demand for non- financial information in corporate reporting. This has led to a situation of information overload where separate financial and sustainability reports have developed in length and complexity interdependent of each other. Integrated reporting has been presented as a solution to this problematic situation. The question is whether the corporate world believe this to be the solution and if the development of corporate reporting is heading in this direction. Purpose - This thesis aims to examine and assess to what extent companies listed on the OMX Stockholm 30 (OMXS30), as per 2016-02-28, comply with the Strategic content element of the <IR> Framework and how this disclosure has developed since the framework’s pilot project and official release by using a self-constructed disclosure index based on its specific items. Methodology – The purpose was fulfilled through an analysis of 104 annual reports comprising 26 companies during the period of 2011-2014. The annual reports were assessed using a self-constructed disclosure index based on the <IR> Framework content element Strategy and Resource Allocation, where one point was given for each disclosed item. Analysis and conclusions – The study found that the OMXS30-listed companies to a large extent complies with the strategic content element of the <IR> Framework and that this compliance has seen a steady growth throughout the researched time span. There is still room for improvement however with a total average framework compliance of 84% for 2014. Although many items are being reported on, there are indications that companies generally miss out on the core values of Integrated reporting. 

Social welfare aspects of information with special reference to news.

The information society thesis, according to which economically advanced nations are undergoing transformation into post-industrial, information-based societies, can, with caveats, be taken as a premise. Essentially empirical or predictive, this influential set of claims quickly gives rise to major normative issues. The paper asks how, as part of a prospective normative theory of the information society, information may be shown to contribute to social goals in general and social welfare in particular. Given the diverse range of referents of the term 'information' in the context of the information society debate, the paper focuses on news as a form of information whose communication is widely held to be important to society. The problem is how to quantify or otherwise prove this intuition. It is suggested that a fusion of welfare economics and the economics of information may yield a solution. The paper is designed to be exploratory, offering a potential line of inquiry for the future research and policy agenda of information society studies.

The Idiosyncratic Body: Contemporary Clown Theory and Practice

Drawing on historical research, personal interviews, performance analysis, and my own embodied experience as a participant-observer in several clown workshops, I explore the diverse historical influences on clown theatre as it is conceived today. I then investigate how the concept of embodied knowledge is reflected in red-nose clown pedagogy. Finally, I argue that through shared embodied knowledge spectators are able to perceive and appreciate the humor of clown theatre in performance. I propose that clown theatre represents a reaction to the eroding personal connections prompted by the so-called information age, and that humor in clown theatre is a revealing index of socio-cultural values, attitudes, dispositions, and concerns.

'Malicious Code Execution Detection and Response Immune System inspired by the Danger Theory'

The analysis of system calls is one method employed by anomaly detection systems to recognise malicious code execution. Similarities can be drawn between this process and the behaviour of certain cells belonging to the human immune system, and can be applied to construct an artificial immune system. A recently developed hypothesis in immunology, the Danger Theory, states that our immune system responds to the presence of intruders through sensing molecules belonging to those invaders, plus signals generated by the host indicating danger and damage. We propose the incorporation of this concept into a responsive intrusion detection system, where behavioural information of the system and running processes is combined with information regarding individual system calls.