台湾WTO加盟後の対中政策手段とFTA外交

WTO加盟は台湾にとって、初めての国連組織への加盟となる。また、FTAへの参加資格を得た点において大きな外交得点であった。しかし、中国との経済関係の自由化を迫られるデメリットがあるが、中国との政治的な緊張関係を利用して台湾は自由化を遅らせることもできる。一方、他のWTOメンバーとのFTA締結は法的障害を除去しても、中国の反対がネックとなっている。

アジアは一つになれるか？: ASEAN型「統合」からの脱却の必要性

東アジア共同体の議論は、FTAが基礎になる。だが、FTA自体が本当の統合なのか疑問が残る。もし、アジアがEU型の本格的な深い統合を目指すなら、ASEAN中心主義や中国の深い関与が足かせになる。経済発展と民主化が一定水準に達したアジアやオセアニアの先進国による新たな統合の核が必要である。

一国両制下における統合：中国大陸と香港を中心に

香港返還は一国両制のもと、統一を果たしても領域ごとの制度統合を行わなかった。しかし、密接な経済交流の存在は、領域間の統合を不可避なものにする。現在の香港SAR基本法の元で、どの程度の統合が可能なのか、あるいは可能性があるのかを検討した。さらに経済統合と民主主義のトレードオフの関係も指摘している。

「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題の力学－グローバル・イシュー化と議論の欠落－

ダイヤモンド原石の取引とアフリカの紛争をめぐる「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題は、近年国際社会が熱心に討議するグローバル・イシューとなった。この問題は2000年になって急速に顕在化し、年末には国連総会において全会一致で加盟国に取り組みを求める決議が採択された。国連の報告書やNGOの運動によって国際世論が盛り上がり、シエラレオネ問題の解決を進めたいイギリス政府、あるいは消費者運動を恐れる業界や生産国が取り組みに加わったことなどがその理由である。しかし、現在の「紛争ダイヤモンド」をめぐる議論では、ダイヤモンドとアフリカの紛争をめぐる問題が部分的にしか扱われていない。そこではアンゴラとシエラレオネにおける反政府勢力の活動を抑えることに主眼が置かれているが、コンゴのように状況が複雑な地域に対する取り組みは遅れている。さらに、ダイヤモンドを武器購入や民間軍事会社への支払いに充当するアフリカ各国政府の行動については、深刻な問題を内包するにもかかわらず、ほとんど議論されていない。「紛争ダイヤモンド」問題が、脆弱な国家における公的な資源の管理・開発という論点と繋がっていることを忘れるべきではない。

Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction under Mubarak's Program

This paper describes and analyzes the major features of economic development and poverty reduction in Egypt during its transition to a market Economy. It focuses on the changes in the situation of poverty and economic policies pursued as remedies by the government of Egypt and the ruling NDP. Sustainable development and poverty reduction is the core of the President Mubarak’s election campaign for his fifth term for the presidency. We attempt to explain the obstacles encountered by the Egyptian economy in terms of adjustments and general economic arguments on poverty. Finally, we refer to the necessity for enhanced accountability in the society to accomplish the goal.

Social movements and the crisis of neoliberalism in Malaysia and Thailand

Of the Southeast Asian countries most badly affected by the 1997 financial crisis, Malaysia and Thailand remain the most unsettled by its political fallout. Their present political situations are not akin to 'politics as usual'. Instead, they capture the unpredicted outcomes of post-crisis struggles to reorganize structures of economic and political power. Comparing the situations in Malaysia and Thailand, this paper focuses on their differing state and civil society engagements with neoliberalism. It is suggested that the post-crisis contestations, sometimes tied to pre-crisis conflicts in political economy, left something of a stalemate: neither neoliberalism nor the social movements satisfactorily fulfilled their agendas in either country.

Growth and public finance in Bihar

This paper explores the causal links between the role of public finance and Bihar's growth and development in the last decade; and argues that these links are tenuous. Bihar's growth acceleration precedes the ‘policy reforms' in public finance based on the ‘good governance' agenda initiated since 2005-06. However, the constraints on sustaining efforts to close Bihar's development gap with the rest of India stems from the nature of the growth process in its regional, sectoral and social dimensions and the contradictory means and ends of the ‘policy reforms' in public finance. Together, this has not only prevented the economic growth to add to public coiffeurs of the state but also occluded the role of tax institutions.

Trajectories and outcomes of the 'Arab Spring' : comparing Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria

Almost three years have passed since the 'Arab Spring' began in late 2010. In the major sites of popular uprisings, political conditions remain unsettled or violent. Despite similarities in their original opposition to authoritarian rule, the outcomes differed from country to country. In Tunisia and Egypt, processes of transiting from authoritarian rule produced contrasting consequences for democratic politics. Uprisings led to armed rebellion in Libya and Syria, but whereas Gaddafi was overthrown, Asad was not. What explains the different trajectories and outcomes of the Arab Spring? How were these shaped by the power structure and levels of social control of the pre-uprising regimes and their state institutions, on the one hand, and by the character of the societies and oppositional forces that rose against them? Comparing Tunisia with Egypt, and Libya with Syria, this paper discusses various factors that account for variations in the trajectories and outcomes of the Arab Spring, namely, the legacy of the previous regime, institutional and constitutional choices during "transition" from authoritarian rule, socioeconomic conditions, and the presence of absence of ethnic, sectarian and geographic diversity.

Why do oil importers diversify their import sources politically? : evidence from U.S. firm-level data

International politics affects oil trade. But why? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine what kinds of firms are more responsive to change in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To test this hold-up risk hypothesis, we investigate heterogeneity in responses by matching transaction-level import data with firm-level worldwide reserves. Our results show that long-run oil import decisions are indeed more elastic for firms with oil reserves overseas than those without, although the reverse is true in the short run. We interpret this empirical regularity as that while firms trade in the spot market can adjust their imports immediately, vertically-integrated firms with investment overseas tend to commit to term contracts in the short run even though they are more responsive to changes in international politics in the long run.

The effects of international politics on oil-exporting developing countries

International politics affects oil trade. But does it affect the oil-exporting developing countries more? We construct a firm-level dataset for all U.S. oil-importing companies over 1986-2008 to examine how these firms respond to changes in "political distance" between the U.S. and her trading partners, measured by divergence in their UN General Assembly voting patterns. Consistent with previous macro evidence, we first show that individual firms diversify their oil imports politically, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. We conjecture that the political pattern of oil imports from these individual firms is driven by hold-up risks, because oil trade is often associated with backward vertical FDI. To the extent that developing countries have higher hold-up risks because of their weaker institutions, the political effect on oil trade should be more significant in the developing world. We find that oil import decisions are indeed more elastic when firms import from developing countries, although the reverse is true in the short run. Our results suggest that international politics can affect oil revenue and hence long-term development in the developing world.

State-business relations in the smaller gulf monarchies -- the role of business actors in the decision-making process

The Arab monarchies of the Gulf have been undergoing striking socio-economic changes caused by the ending of the rent-based welfare state model on which they had largely relied since the 1950s. In this perspective, this paper aims at examining the comparative role of local business communities in affecting the orientations and the outcomes of the policies implemented during the period of high oil prices in the 2000s. This paper pays a special attention to the impact of the Arab Spring on the state-business relations in two of the smaller Gulf monarchies (Bahrain and Oman).

La centralidad y la representación de la cotidianidad en la ciudad globalizada. Madrid y la evolución de la Almendra Central de 1998 a 2008

En un escenario de cambio en el ciclo sistémico de acumulación, la centralidad urbana adquiere un papel de espacio para la acumulación de capital económico y simbólico en torno al discurso de la excelencia y el prestigio derivado de la globalización. La producción de un espacio diferenciado y competitivo tiende a normalizar las formas de vida, contribuyendo a la aspiración coercitiva neoliberal. Tras dos décadas de máxima expansión del sistema de acumulación en Madrid, las inversiones realizadas en la Almendra Central han transformado el espacio de centralidad, facilitando la producción de un espacio excluyente en busca de ventajas para la atracción de capital. Surge así una competencia entre espacios para extender el sistema de acumulación, lo que lleva a referenciar la cotidianidad en el consumo, convertido en instrumento de referencia de la posición social. El análisis desde tres enfoques —la economía política, la forma urbana y la ideología— nos sugiere que la Almendra Central de Madrid, como construcción física y social, se ha convertido en la representación no solo del mundo de la mercancía, sino también del estatus del individuo en la globalización. ABSTRACT In the change of the systemic cycle of accumulation, urban centrality acquires a role as accumulation space for the economic and symbolic capital, around an excellence and prestige discourse, characteristic of globalisation. The production of one difference and competitive space suggests the normalization of ways of life. This contributes to the neoliberal aspiration of coercion. Before two decades of maximum expansion of accumulation cycle in Madrid, the investment in the “Almendra Central” has transform the centrality space, producing a distinguished space, searching for advantages in the attraction of capital. So it is necessary a competition between spaces inside the city to extend the accumulation system, and then, the everyday life is referenced in consumption as a social position reference. From three approaches —political economy, urban form and ideology— our analysis suggests that the “Almendra Central” in Madrid is now, not only the representation of world commodity, but also the social status in globalisation.