Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Axiomatization of the nucl eolus of assignment games

On the domain of general assignment games (with possible reservation prices) the core is axiomatized as the unique solution satisfying two consistency principles: projection consistency and derived consistency. Also, an axiomatic characterization of the nucleolus is given as the unique solution that satisfies derived consistency and equal maximum complaint between groups. As a consequence, we obtain a geometric characterization of the nucleolus. Maschler et al. (1979) provide a geometrical characterization for the intersection of the kernel and the core of a coalitional game, showing that those allocations that lie in both sets are always the midpoint of certain bargaining range between each pair of players. In the case of the assignment game, this means that the kernel can be determined as those core allocations where the maximum amount, that can be transferred without getting outside the core, from one agent to his / her optimally matched partner equals the maximum amount that he / she can receive from this partner, also remaining inside the core. We now prove that the nucleolus of the assignment game can be characterized by requiring this bisection property be satisfied not only for optimally matched pairs but also for optimally matched coalitions. Key words: cooperative games, assignment game, core, nucleolus

The problem of nitrogen disposal in the obese

Amino-N is preserved because of the scarcity and nutritional importance of protein. Excretion requires its conversion to ammonia, later incorporated into urea. Under conditions of excess dietary energy, the body cannot easily dispose of the excess amino-N against the evolutively adapted schemes that prevent its wastage; thus ammonia and glutamine formation (and urea excretion) are decreased. High lipid (and energy) availability limits the utilisation of glucose, and high glucose spares the production of ammonium from amino acids, limiting the synthesis of glutamine and its utilisation by the intestine and kidney. The amino acid composition of the diet affects the production of ammonium depending on its composition and the individual amino acid catabolic pathways. Surplus amino acids enhance protein synthesis and growth, and the synthesis of non-protein-N-containing compounds. But these outlets are not enough; consequently, less-conventional mechanisms are activated, such as increased synthesis of NO∙ followed by higher nitrite (and nitrate) excretion and changes in the microbiota. There is also a significant production of N(2) gas, through unknown mechanisms. Health consequences of amino-N surplus are difficult to fathom because of the sparse data available, but it can be speculated that the effects may be negative, largely because the fundamental N homeostasis is stretched out of normalcy, forcing the N removal through pathways unprepared for that task. The unreliable results of hyperproteic diets, and part of the dysregulation found in the metabolic syndrome may be an unwanted consequence of this N disposal conflict.

Generalized synchronization in directionally coupled systems with identical individual dynamics

A simple chaotic flow is presented, which when driven by an identical copy of itself, for certain initial conditions, is able to display generalized synchronization instead of identical synchronization. Being that the drive and the response are observed in exactly the same coordinate system, generalized synchronization is demonstrated by means of the auxiliary system approach and by the conditional Lyapunov spectrum. This is interpreted in terms of changes in the structure of the system stationary points, caused by the coupling, which modify its global behavior.

Generating a raster map presentation of a forest resource by solving a transportation problem

Abstract

An Improved Hybrid Model for the Generic Hoist Scheduling Problem

Peer-reviewed

Report on theorerical results of power generation and conversion

Experimental results of a new controller able to support bidirectional power flow in a full-bridge rectifier with boost-like topology are obtained. The controller is computed using port Hamiltonian passivity techniques for a suitable generalized state space averaging truncation system, which transforms the control objectives, namely constant output voltage dc-bus and unity input power factor, into a regulation problem. Simulation results for the full system show the essential correctness of the simplifications introduced to obtain the controller, although some small experimental discrepancies point to several aspects that need further improvement.

Reconstruction of the join time-delay Doppler-scale reflectivity density in the wide-band regime. A frame theory based approach

The inverse scattering problem concerning the determination of the joint time-delayDoppler-scale reflectivity density characterizing continuous target environments is addressed by recourse to the generalized frame theory. A reconstruction formula,involving the echoes of a frame of outgoing signals and its corresponding reciprocalframe, is developed. A ‘‘realistic’’ situation with respect to the transmission ofa finite number of signals is further considered. In such a case, our reconstruction formula is shown to yield the orthogonal projection of the reflectivity density onto a subspace generated by the transmitted signals.

The continuous wavelet transform as a maximum entropy solution of the corresponding inverse problem

The continuous wavelet transform is obtained as a maximumentropy solution of the corresponding inverse problem. It is well knownthat although a signal can be reconstructed from its wavelet transform,the expansion is not unique due to the redundancy of continuous wavelets.Hence, the inverse problem has no unique solution. If we want to recognizeone solution as "optimal", then an appropriate decision criterion hasto be adopted. We show here that the continuous wavelet transform is an"optimal" solution in a maximum entropy sense.

Heuristic procedures for solving the General Assembly Line Balancing Problem with Setups (GALBPS)

The General Assembly Line Balancing Problem with Setups (GALBPS) was recently defined in the literature. It adds sequence-dependent setup time considerations to the classical Simple Assembly Line Balancing Problem (SALBP) as follows: whenever a task is assigned next to another at the same workstation, a setup time must be added to compute the global workstation time, thereby providing the task sequence inside each workstation. This paper proposes over 50 priority-rule-based heuristic procedures to solve GALBPS, many of which are an improvement upon heuristic procedures published to date.

Frames: a maximum entropy statistical estimate of the inverse problem

A maximum entropy statistical treatment of an inverse problem concerning frame theory is presented. The problem arises from the fact that a frame is an overcomplete set of vectors that defines a mapping with no unique inverse. Although any vector in the concomitant space can be expressed as a linear combination of frame elements, the coefficients of the expansion are not unique. Frame theory guarantees the existence of a set of coefficients which is “optimal” in a minimum norm sense. We show here that these coefficients are also “optimal” from a maximum entropy viewpoint.

Product Line Profitability- Case Halton Indoors

Diplomityön tavoitteena on rakentaa malli kohdeyrityksen yhden strategisen liiketoimintayksikön tuoteryhmänkohtaisten kannattavuuksien selvittämiseksi yli kokotoimitusketjun. Työssä on keskitytty vain välillisiin kustannuksiin ja välittömien kustannusten osalta on luotettu toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän antamiin tietoihin. Työn lähtökohtana ja teoreettisena viitekehikkona on toimintoperustainen kustannuslaskenta, jonka periaatteita noudattaen kannattavuusmalli rakennettiin. Mallin periaatteet on esitetty työssä mutta sen tuottamia tuloksia ei ole syvemmin analysoitu. Ongelma osoittautui haasteelliseksi ja tulosten verifiointi lähes mahdottomaksi käytettyjen subjektiivisten arvioiden ja ennalta odottamattomien välittömien tuotekustannusten suurten virheiden vuoksi. Työn johtopäätöksissä keskitytään sisäisen laskentatoimen kulttuurin kehittämiseen tuotekustannuslaskennan ja yleisen kustannusvalvonnan näkökulmasta kohdeyrityksessä.

Determination of the components of the gyration tensor of quartz by oblique incidence transmission two-modulator generalized ellipsometry

The two independent components of the gyration tensor of quartz, g11 and g33, have been spectroscopically measured using a transmission two-modulator generalized ellipsometer. The method is used to determine the optical activity in crystals in directions other than the optic axis, where the linear birefringence is much larger than the optical activity.