Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

The consequences of child-parent violence reflected in a life story

A process of social transformation allied with ongoing changes to the family has made possible the existence of a relatively little-known phenomenon: that of child-parent violence, which is raised as one of the most commonly experienced forms of violence in the family environment. Based on the study of this phenomenon, in our research we have used the qualitative technique of a life story, making use of a field diary in which we have taken notes on our daily work in the therapeutic context, for the purposes of mitigating the effects of such a process. The following research objectives were set: establishing the connection existing between family education style and the use of violence by the minor; and evaluating the extent to which family therapy mitigates the use of violence by the minor. The family education model, together with other dimensions, results in situations of child-parent violence occurring repeatedly, with continuing negative reinforcement from both parties in order to maintain a recurrent cycle of conduct, from which it is difficult to «escape» other than through a process of ongoing psychological therapy.

La existencia de necesidades de información y comportamiento informativo en los entrenadores en deportes de combate

Este trabajo tiene como propósito esencial, realizar un acercamiento para detectar e identificar las necesidades de información y el comportamiento informativo de entrenadores en deportes de combate. Para ello se aplicó un cuestionario a instructores de aikido, boxeo, esgrima, judo, karate, kendo, lima lama, lucha y taekwondo seleccionados mediante un muestreo no probabilístico por causalidad. En general encontramos que los principales temas de interés entre los instructores son: los programas de entrenamiento, nutrición y dietas de entrenamiento. Por otra parte, los entrenadores son más propensos a utilizar su experiencia, internet y cursos para obtener información. En contraste se nota que la biblioteca y los libros son poco usados.

Tight junctional abnormality in multiple sclerosis white matter affects all calibres of vessel and is associated with blood-brain barrier leakage and active demyelination

Blood-brain barrier (BBB) hyperpermeability in multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with lesion pathogenesis and has been linked to pathology in microvascular tight junctions (TJs). This study quantifies the uneven distribution of TJ pathology and its association with BBB leakage. Frozen sections from plaque and normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) in 14 cases were studied together with white matter from six neurological and five normal controls. Using single and double immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy, the TJ-associated protein zonula occludens-1 (ZO-1) was examined across lesion types and tissue categories, and in relation to fibrinogen leakage. Confocal image data sets were analysed for 2198 MS and 1062 control vessels. Significant differences in the incidence of TJ abnormalities were detected between the different lesion types in MS and between MS and control white matter. These were frequent in oil-red O (ORO)+ active plaques, affecting 42% of vessel segments, but less frequent in ORO- inactive plaques (23%), NAWM (13%), and normal (3.7%) and neurological controls (8%). A similar pattern was found irrespective of the vessel size, supporting a causal role for diffusible inflammatory mediators. In both NAWM and inactive lesions, dual labelling showed that vessels with the most TJ abnormality also showed most fibrinogen leakage. This was even more pronounced in active lesions, where 41% of vessels in the highest grade for TJ alteration showed severe leakage. It is concluded that disruption of TJs in MS, affecting both paracellular and transcellular paths, contributes to BBB leakage. TJ abnormality and BBB leakage in inactive lesions suggests either failure of TJ repair or a continuing pathological process. In NAWM, it suggests either pre-lesional change or secondary damage. Clinically inapparent TJ pathology has prognostic implications and should be considered when planning disease-modifying therapy

Journalistic genres in teaching of journalism in Spain. A historical review

This article shows the influence that journalistic genres had on the first organisation of communication studies in Spain as well as the role they remain to play in the teaching of journalism. A review is done starting from the origins of the didactics of genres, continuing with the role of genres in the beginning of regulated studies of journalism, and finalising with an analysis of their place in present education programmes which reveals that practical and theoretical knowledge of the genres are still a main objective in the training of future journalists in Spain.

Constructions of locality and gender and their impact on the educational aspirations of working class children

Over recent years the moral panic that has surrounded 'boys' underachievement' has tended to encourage crude and essentialist comparisons between all boys and all girls and to eclipse the continuing and more profound effects on educational achievement exerted by social class and 'race'/ethnicity. While there are differences in educational achievement between working class boys and girls, these differences are relatively minor when comparing the overall achievement levels of working class children with those from higher, professional social class backgrounds. This paper argues that a need exists therefore for researchers to fully contextualise the gender differences that exist in educational achievement within the over-riding contexts provided by social class and 'race'/ethnicity. The paper provides an example of how this can be done through a case study of 11-year-old children from a Catholic, working class area in Belfast. The paper shows how the children's general educational aspirations are significantly mediated by their experiences of the local area in which they live. However, the way in which the children come to experience and construct a sense of locality differs between the boys and girls and this, it is argued, helps to explain the more positive educational aspirations held by some of the girls compared to the boys. The paper concludes by considering the relevance of locality for understanding its effects on educational aspirations among other working class and/or minority ethnic communities.

The Effect of Human RIghts on Criminal Evidentiary Processes: Convergence, Divergence or Realignment?

This article examines the contribution which the European Court of Human Rights has made to the development of common evidentiary processes across the common law and civil law systems of criminal procedure in Europe. It is argued that the continuing use of terms such as 'adversarial' and 'inquisitorial' to describe models of criminal proof and procedure has obscured the genuinely transformative nature of the Court's jurisprudence. It is shown that over a number of years the Court has been steadily developing a new model of proof that is better characterised as 'participatory' than as 'adversarial' or 'inquisitorial'. Instead of leading towards a convergence of existing 'adversarial' and 'inquisitorial' models of proof, this is more likely to lead towards a realignment of existing processes of proof which nonetheless allows plenty of scope for diverse application in different institutional and cultural settings.

Teachers' and teacher educators' lives: the role of emotion

This paper reports research which focuses on ways of enhancing understandings by teachers of the key role that emotions play in their personal professional growth. It combines the narrative, autobiographical accounts of teachers attending part-time masters degree programmes in England (Continuing Professional Development and School Improvement) and Northern Ireland (Personal and Social Development) with an interrogation of the underlying values which affect the practices of their tutors. It reveals the effects of powerful and often unacknowledged interaction between personal biography and professional and social contexts upon teachers in schools and higher education.

Evaluation of extended training for general practice in Northern Ireland: qualitative study.

Objective To evaluate participants' perceptions of the impact on them of an additional six months' training beyond the standard 12 month general practice vocational training scheme. Design Qualitative study using focus groups. Setting General practice vocational training in Northern Ireland. Participants 13 general practitioner registrars, six of whom participated in the additional six months' training, and four trainers involved in the additional six months' training. Main outcome measures: Participants' views about their experiences in 18 month and 12 month courses. Results Participants reported that the 12 month course was generally positive but was too pressurised and focused on examinations, and also that it had a negative impact on self care. The nature of the learning and assessment was reported to have left participants feeling averse to further continuing education and lacking in confidence. In contrast, the extended six month component was reported to have restimulated learning by focusing more on patient care and promoting self directed learning. It developed confidence, promoted teamwork, and gave experience of two practice contexts, and was reported as valuable by both ex-registrars and trainers. However, both the 12 and 18 month courses left participants feeling underprepared for practice management and self care. Conclusions 12 months' training in general practice does not provide doctors with the necessary competencies and confidence to enter independent practice. The extended period was reported to promote greater professional development, critical evaluation skills, and orientation to lifelong learning but does not fill all the gaps.

Mire ontogeny, environmental and climate change inferred from fossil beetle successions from Hatfield Moors, eastern England

Results of a fossil Coleoptera (beetle) fauna from a fen edge sequence from Hatfield Moors, Humberhead Levels, are presented. Mire ontogeny inferred from this location and others are discussed, particularly in the light of previous palynological and plant macrofossil investigations. Peat initiation across most of the site centres around 3000 cal BC, characterised by a Calluna-Eriophorum heath with areas of Pinus-Betula woodland. The onset of peat accumulation on the southern margins of the site was delayed until 1520-1390 cal BC and appears to overlap closely with a recurrence surface at a pollen site (HAT 2) studied by Brian Smith (1985, 2002) dated to 1610-1440 cal BC, suggesting that increased surface wetness may have caused mire expansion at this time. The faunas illustrate the transition from eutrophic and mesotrophic fen to ombrotrophic raised mire, although the significance of both Pinus- and Calluna-indicating species through the sequence suggests that heath habitats may have continued to be important. Elsewhere, this earlier phase of rich fen is lacking and mesotrophic mire developed immediately above nutrient poor sands, with ombrotrophic conditions indicated soon after. Correspondence analysis of the faunas provides valuable insights into the importance of sandy heath habitats on Hatfield Moors. The continuing influence of the underlying coversands suggests these may have been instrumental in mire ontogeny. The research highlights the usefulness of using Coleoptera to assess mire ontogeny, fluctuations in site hydrology and vegetation cover, particularly when used in conjunction with other peatland proxies. The significance of a suite of extinct beetle species is discussed with reference to forest history and climate change.

Correlating Additives to Deterioration and Assessing the Effectiveness of Acrylic Coatings for the Protection of Rubber

Conservators have long been aware of the problems associated with the preservation of rubber objects due to inherent instability that can be attributed, in part, to the presence of additives. Inorganic additives, such as fillers, accelerators, stabilizers, and special ingredients are necessary in manufacturing to alter the properties of natural rubber. These materials all have different interactions with the rubber, and each other, and differing effects on the ageing process. To date, the most effective and accepted methods to preserve rubber are cold, dark storage of objects, or the use of low oxygen environments. While these methods are effective, they greatly limit access. The application of coatings to the surface of rubber objects can slow deterioration and greatly increase the ability of an institution to handle and display rubber objects. While numerous coatings for preventive and interventive treatment have been tested, none have been so successful to warrant routine use. The first section of this research highlighted the relationship between the inclusion of certain additives in natural rubber objects and the accelerated or slowed down overall degradation. In the second part of this research, the acrylic varnishes Golden Polymer Varnish with UVLS, Lascaux Acrylic Transparent Varnish-UV, Sennelier Matte Lacquer with UV Protection, and Liquitex Soluvar Varnish containing ultraviolet light absorbers or stabilizers were tested as a preventative coating for rubber. Through testing the visual and physical properties of the samples, as well as compound analysis the results of this research suggest that acrylic varnishes do provide protection, each to varying degrees. The results also provided insight into the behavior of rubber and these varnishes with continuing light exposure.

Contingent screening for down syndrome is an efficient alternative to non-disclosure sequential screening

Objective To present a first and second trimester Down syndrome screening strategy, whereby second-trimester marker determination is contingent on the first-trimester results. Unlike non-disclosure sequential screening (the Integrated test), which requires all women to have markers in both trimesters, this allows a large proportion of the women to complete screening in the first trimester. Methods Two first-trimester risk cut-offs defined three types of results: positive and referred for early diagnosis; negative with screening complete; and intermediate, needing second-trimester markers. Multivariate Gaussian modelling with Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the false-positive rate for a fixed 85% detection rate. The false-positive rate was evaluated for various early detection rates and early test completion rates. Model parameters were taken from the SURUSS trial. Results Completion of screening in the first trimester for 75% of women resulted in a 30% early detection rate and a 55% second trimester detected rate (net 85%) with a false-positive rate only 0.1% above that achievable by the Integrated test. The screen-positive rate was 0.1% in the first trimester and 4.7% for those continuing to be tested in the second trimester. If the early detection rate were to be increased to 45% or the early completion rate were to be increased to 80%, there would be a further 0.1% increase in the false-positive rate. Conclusion Contingent screening can achieve results comparable with the Integrated test but with earlier completion of screening for most women. Both strategies need to be evaluated in large-scale prospective studies particularly in relation to psychological impact and practicability.