Latin America and the Caribbean in 2011 and Beyond: A conversation among Latin America and Caribbean Specialists.

For the first time in more than fifty years, the domestic and external conflicts in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are not primarily ideological in nature. Democracy continues to thrive and its promise still inspires hope. In contrast, the illegal production, consumption, and trading of drugs – and its links to criminal gangs and organizations – represent major challenges to the region, undermining several States’ already weak capacity to govern. While LAC macroeconomic stability has remained resilient, illegal economies fill the region, often offering what some States have not historically been able to provide – elements of human security, opportunities for social mobility, and basic survival. Areas controlled by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) are now found in Central America, Mexico, and the favelas of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, reflecting their competition for land routes and production areas. Cartels such as La Familia, Los Zetas, and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC-Brazil), among others, operate like trade and financial enterprises that manage millions of dollars and resources, demonstrating significant business skills in adapting to changing circumstances. They are also merciless in their application of violence to preserve their lucrative enterprises. The El Salvador-Guatemala-Honduras triangle in Central America is now the most violent region in the world, surpassing regions in Africa that have been torn by civil strife for years. In Brazil’s favelas and Guatemala’s Petén region, the military is leaving the barracks again; not to rule, however, but to supplement and even replace the law enforcement capacity of weak and discredited police forces. This will challenge the military to apply lessons learned during the course of their experience in government, or from the civil wars that plagued the region for nearly 50 years during the Cold War. Will they be able to conduct themselves according to the professional ethics that have been inculcated over the past 20 years without incurring violations of human rights? Belief in their potential to do good is high according to many polls as the Armed Forces still enjoy a favorable perception in most societies, despite frequent involvement in corruption. Calling them to fight DTOs, however, may bring them too close to the illegal activities they are being asked to resist, or even rekindle the view that only a “strong hand” can resolve national troubles. The challenge of governance is occurring as contrasts within the region are becoming sharper. There is an increasing gap between nations positioned to surpass their “developing nation” status and those that are practically imploding as the judicial, political and enforcement institutions fall further into the quagmire of illicit activities. Several South American nations are advancing their political and economic development. Brazil in particular has realized macro-economic stability, made impressive gains in poverty reduction, and is on track to potentially become a significant oil producer. It is also an increasingly influential power, much closer to the heralded “emerging power” category that it aspired to for most of the 20th century. In contrast, several Central American States have become so structurally deficient, and have garnered such limited legitimacy, that their countries have devolved into patches of State controlled and non-State-controlled territory, becoming increasingly vulnerable to DTO entrenchment. In the Caribbean, the drug and human trafficking business also thrives. Small and larger countries are experiencing the growing impact of illicit economies and accompanying crime and violence. Among these, Guyana and Suriname face greater uncertainty, as they juggle both their internal affairs and their relations with Brazil and Venezuela. Cuba also faces new challenges as it continues focusing on internal rather than external affairs and attempts to ensure a stable leadership succession while simultaneously trying to reform its economy. Loosening the regime’s tight grip on the economy while continuing to curtail citizen’s civil rights will test the leadership’s ability to manage change and prevent a potential socio-economic crisis from turning into an existential threat. Cuba’s past ideological zest is now in the hands of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez, who continues his attempts to bring the region together under Venezuelan leadership ideologically based on a “Bolivarian” anti-U.S. banner, without much success. The environment and natural disasters will merit more attention in the coming years. Natural events will produce increasing scales of destruction as the States in the region fail to maintain and expand existing infrastructure to withstand such calamities and respond to their effects. Prospects for earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes are high, particularly in the Caribbean. In addition, there are growing rates of deforestation in nearly every country, along with a potential increase in cross-sector competition for resources. The losers might be small farmers, due to their inability to produce quantities commensurate to larger conglomerates. Regulations that could mitigate these types of situations are lacking or openly violated with near impunity. Indigenous and other vulnerable populations, including African descendants, in several Andean countries, are particularly affected by the increasing extraction of natural resources taking place amongst their terrain. This has led to protests against extraction activities that negatively affect their livelihoods, and in the process, these historically underprivileged groups have transitioned from agenda-based organization to one that is bringing its claims and grievances to the national political agenda, becoming more politically engaged. Symptomatic of these social issues is the region’s chronically poor quality of education that has consistently failed to reduce inequality and prepare new generations for jobs in the competitive global economy, particularly the more vulnerable populations. Simultaneously, the educational deficit is also exacerbated by the erosion of access to information and freedom of the press. The international panorama is also in flux. New security entities are challenging the old establishment. The Union of South American Nations, The South American Defense Council, the socialist Bolivarian Alliance, and other entities seem to be defying the Organization of American States and its own defense mechanisms, and excluding the U.S. And the U.S.’s attention to areas in conflict, namely Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan – rather than to the more stable Latin America and Caribbean – has left ample room for other actors to elbow in. China is now the top trading partner for Brazil. Russian and Iran are also finding new partnerships in the region, yet their links appear more politically inclined than those of China. Finally, the aforementioned increasing commercial ties by LAC States with China have accelerated a return to the preponderance of commodities as sources of income for their economies. The increased extraction of raw material for export will produce greater concern over the environmental impact that is created by the exploitation of natural resources. These expanded trade opportunities may prove counterproductive economically for countries in the region, particularly for Brazil and Chile, two countries whose economic policies have long sought diversification from dependence on commodities to the development of service and technology based industries.

Geographic provenancing of unprocessed cotton using elemental analysis and stable isotope ratios

Cotton is the most abundant natural fiber in the world. Many countries are involved in the growing, importation, exportation and production of this commodity. Paper documentation claiming geographic origin is the current method employed at U.S. ports for identifying cotton sources and enforcing tariffs. Because customs documentation can be easily falsified, it is necessary to develop a robust method for authenticating or refuting the source of the cotton commodities. This work presents, for the first time, a comprehensive approach to the chemical characterization of unprocessed cotton in order to provide an independent tool to establish geographic origin. Elemental and stable isotope ratio analysis of unprocessed cotton provides a means to increase the ability to distinguish cotton in addition to any physical and morphological examinations that could be, and are currently performed. Elemental analysis has been conducted using LA-ICP-MS, LA-ICP-OES and LIBS in order to offer a direct comparison of the analytical performance of each technique and determine the utility of each technique for this purpose. Multivariate predictive modeling approaches are used to determine the potential of elemental and stable isotopic information to aide in the geographic provenancing of unprocessed cotton of both domestic and foreign origin. These approaches assess the stability of the profiles to temporal and spatial variation to determine the feasibility of this application. This dissertation also evaluates plasma conditions and ablation processes so as to improve the quality of analytical measurements made using atomic emission spectroscopy techniques. These interactions, in LIBS particularly, are assessed to determine any potential simplification of the instrumental design and method development phases. This is accomplished through the analysis of several matrices representing different physical substrates to determine the potential of adopting universal LIBS parameters for 532 nm and 1064 nm LIBS for some important operating parameters. A novel approach to evaluate both ablation processes and plasma conditions using a single measurement was developed and utilized to determine the "useful ablation efficiency" for different materials. The work presented here demonstrates the potential for an a priori prediction of some probable laser parameters important in analytical LIBS measurement.

The Political Economy of Financially Successful Independent Hip-Hop Artists

From 2000 to 2010, America’s music industry’s annual revenue went from $4 billion to $2 billion. Much of this is attributed to the internet’s ability to provide consumers with easy access to free music, and hip hop has been especially impacted by this trend. Utilizing document analysis and personal interviews, this study found that the success of independent artists has influenced the business strategies of major record companies. In response to a dramatic decrease in record sales, major labels have made more of an effort to sign their artists to 360 deals, which allow the labels to profit from every aspect of an artist’s brand or identity. While some independent artists are the main beneficiary of the profits generated from their music and personal brand, they also reify the commodity-form capitalist system by attempting to turn their music and brand into a fetishized commodity and by turning their audience into a fetishized commodity.

Independent Projects Environmental Studies 2001: Environmental Auditing Strategy for Sir Wilfred Grenfell College

Overconsumption has caused environmental degradation, while creating a dependence on convenience commodities. It is the disposal of solid waste which will prove problematic in the future with growing world populations requiring resources and the use of the land. Universities, as institutions of higher learning, have an opportunity to reduce their environmental impact through its daily operations. Adopting an environmental management system and creating an environmental policy is the means by which these institutions become sustainable campuses. Stewardship policies are developed for universities, such as Sir Wilfred Grenfell College by analyzing current consumptive practices of the students, Faculty, and staff at the institution, often by way of an environmental audit

Perfil exportador e crescimento econômico: uma análise de painel para economias africanas

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the export profile and the African GDP growth rate. Chapter 1 presents the literature on the subject and studies that analyze the specific case of Africa. There seems to be a consensus that exports contribute to economic growth. However, there is no consensus on the benefits that are incorporated from exported products. The divergence lies between the approach of the Natural Resources Curse, where concentration of exports in commodities does not contribute to economic growth. Another work line supports the idea there is no such relation. Chapter 2 presents, through descriptive analysis, macroeconomic and international trade data for African economies data. Based on data from 52 countries for the period 1990-2014, it can be observed that the African continent has improved in macroeconomic terms, with increased exports and economic growth rates, suggesting a positive relationship between the variables. Trade indicators show Africa's integration into the global economy, with European Union, USA, China and some emerging countries as main partners. In addition, the analysis showed that the export is concentrated in oil and agricultural commodities. Most African countries face a negative trade balance, depending of primary products exports with low added value and imports of manufactured goods. Finally, Chapter 3 presents an empirical research using panel data analysis. The results suggest, in general, evidences that exports are important for explaining the African economic growth rate of African economies can be stimulated by the expansion of the share of exports in GDP. The estimated coefficients are positive and statistically significant in both the fixed effect estimation, as the estimation by GMM System. The estimation of growth models for fixed or random effects indicates a direct and statistically significant relationship between export oil / minerals and the growth rate of African countries. Thus, the export profile turns out to be important to determine the growth rate. The results obtained from the estimates do not corroborate the literature arguments called Curse of Natural Resources for the period analyzed, since export natural resources, especially oil and minerals, were relevant to explain the performance of the growth rate of economies.

Does the Future Price Help Forecast the Spot Price?

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Estrutura produtiva da agropecuária, ocupação e pobreza no estado de Minas Gerais no ano de 2010

This thesis aimed to contribute to the discussion about the relationship between agricultural production structure, occupation and poverty in Brazil, specifically in the state of Minas Gerais, in 2010. The issue of employment is becoming increasingly challenging in the face of ongoing modernization process in agriculture, capital intensive and labor saver looking levels ever higher production and productivity. The productive inclusion can be an effective way to exit from poverty (the work is often the only asset of the poor). In this sense, we sought to investigate what activities or groups of activities occupied a larger number of people and generated higher yields and can potentially have contributed to a lower incidence of poverty. The basis for primary data was the 2010 Population Census (microdata). To achieve the objectives we used descriptive analysis, Pearson correlation coefficients and quantile regressions. Among the main findings highlight that agriculture occupied more and generated higher overall income than ranching presented more precarious, despite having lower average incomes and income percentile values, greater heterogeneity and instability, as well as higher proportions of poor. Overall, commodities showed greater formalization and lower poor proportions. In the case of agriculture, commodities activities occupied less, generated lower mass income and middle-income (although income percentiles slightly larger and more informality) and had lower poverty indicators than non-commodity (more heterogeneous rents). In livestock, commodities had higher percentages of occupation, income (although middle-income values and percentiles slightly smaller), and smaller proportions of poor than non-commodity (more heterogenous). In terms of occupation and income stood out the farming activities unspecified (non-commodity), the coffee growing and cattle (commodities). The cultivation of coffee and cattle had the lowest poverty indicators. agricultural production diversification indicators showed positive correlations with the occupation in activities not commodities (only), but also with the proportion of poor, indigent and concentration of income. In addition, the occupation in not commodities showed positive correlations with poverty indicators. It is noteworthy that the occupations in soybeans, coffee and fruit showed negative correlation coefficients with the indicators of poverty, indigence and gini. Finally, among the agricultural activities, there was to go to occupied in agricultural activities not commodities for commodity would be 'more equalizer' (decreasing coefficients over the distribution of income) than for cattle. The occupation in livestock (mostly non-commodity) would generate greater impact on the lower income deciles, but their coefficients grow back in the last deciles, which shows its most perverse character. Among the activities that would affect more strongly the lower deciles and less the higher deciles stand out pig farming, poultry, citrus cultivation, coffee and sugar cane. The cattle and the cultivation of soy, had the highest rates, but they grow back in the last deciles, which shows a more wicked character.

Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States

This paper demonstrates a mechanism whereby rules can be extracted from a feedforward neural network trained to characterize the inflation "pass-through" problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rate(s) of individual commodities and the economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Monthly price data are encoded and used to train a group of candidate connectionist architectures. One candidate is selected for rule extraction, using a custom decompositional extraction algorithm that generates rules in human-readable and machine-executable form. Rule and network accuracy are compared, and comments are made on the relationships expressed within the discovered rules. The types of discovered relationships could be used to guide monetary policy decisions.

Institutions, Innovation, and Grassroots Change: Alternatives to Transnational Governance in the Global South

Transnational governance has been advanced as a viable option for regulating commodities produced in emerging economies—where incapable or unwilling states may undersupply institutions requisite for overseeing supply chains consistent with the quality, safety, environmental, or social standards demanded by the global marketplace. Producers from these jurisdictions, otherwise left with few venues for securing market access and price premiums, ostensibly benefit from whatever pathways transnational actors offer to minimize barriers to entry—including voluntary certification for compliance with a panoply of public and private rules, such as those promulgated by NGOs like the Fair Trade Federation or multinational retailers like Wal-Mart. Yet, such transnational “sustainability” governance may neither be effective nor desirable. Regulatory schemes, like third-party certification, often privilege the interests of primary architects and beneficiaries—private business associations, governments, NGOs, and consumers in the global North—over regulatory targets—producers in the global South. Rather than engaging with the international marketplace via imported and externally-driven schemes, some producer groups are instead challenging existing rules and innovating homegrown institutions. These alternatives to commercialization adopt some institutional characteristics of their transnational counterparts yet deliver benefits in a manner more aligned with the needs of producers. Drawing on original empirical cases from Nicaragua and Mexico, this dissertation examines the role of domestic institutional alternatives to transnational governance in enhancing market access, environmental quality and rural livelihoods within producer communities. Unlike the more technocratic and expert-driven approaches characteristic of mainstream governance efforts, these local regulatory institutions build upon the social capital, indigenous identity, “ancestral” knowledge, and human assets of producer communities as new sources of power and legitimacy in governing agricultural commodities.

Economic contribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus to the livelihoods of mountain communities in Nepal

Harvesting of Chinese caterpillar fungus, one of the most expensive biological commodities in the world, has become an important livelihood strategy for mountain communities of Nepal. However, very little is known about the role of Chinese caterpillar fungus in household economy. We estimated the economic contribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus to the household income, quantified the extent of "Chinese caterpillar fungus dependence" among households with different economic and social characteristics, and assessed the role of cash income from the Chinese caterpillar fungus harvest in meeting various household needs including education, debt payments, and food security. Results show that Chinese caterpillar fungus income is the second largest contributor to the total household income after farm income with 21.1% contribution to the total household income and 53.3% to the total cash income. The contribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus income to total household income decreases as the household income increases making its contribution highest for the poorest households. There is significant correlation between Chinese caterpillar fungus dependency and percentage of family members involved in harvesting, number of food-sufficient months, and total income without Chinese caterpillar fungus income. Income from Chinese caterpillar fungus is helping the poorest to educate children, purchase food, and pay debts. However, reported decline of Chinese caterpillar fungus from its natural habitat might threaten local livelihoods that depend on the Chinese caterpillar fungus in future. Therefore, sustainable management of Chinese caterpillar fungus through partnership among local institutions and the state is critical in conserving the species and the sustained flow of benefits to local communities.

The Financialization of Food: An Inquiry into the 2008-2011 Food Price Spikes

This dissertation investigates the question: has financial speculation contributed to global food price volatility since the mid 2000s? I problematize the mainstream academic literature on the 2008-2011 food price spikes as being dominated by neoclassical economic perspectives and offer new conceptual and empirical insights into the relationship between financial speculation and food. Presented in three journal style manuscripts, manuscript one uses circuits of capital to conceptualize the link between financial speculators in the global north and populations in the global south. Manuscript two argues that what makes commodity index speculation (aka ‘index funds’ or index swaps) novel is that it provides institutional investors with what Clapp (2014) calls “financial distance” from the biopolitical implications of food speculation. Finally, manuscript three combines Gramsci’s concepts of hegemony and ‘the intellectual’ with the concept of performativity to investigate the ideological role that public intellectuals and the rhetorical actor the market play in the proliferation and governance of commodity index speculation. The first two manuscripts take an empirically mixed method approach by combining regression analysis with discourse analysis, while the third relies on interview data and discourse analysis. The findings show that financial speculation by index swap dealers and hedge funds did indeed significantly contribute to the price volatility of food commodities between June 2006 and December 2014. The results from the interview data affirm these findings. The discourse analysis of the interview data shows that public intellectuals and rhetorical characters such as ‘the market’ play powerful roles in shaping how food speculation is promoted, regulated and normalized. The significance of the findings is three-fold. First, the empirical findings show that a link does exist between financial speculation and food price volatility. Second, the findings indicate that the post-2008 CFTC and the Dodd-Frank reforms are unlikely to reduce financial speculation or the price volatility that it causes. Third, the findings suggest that institutional investors (such as pension funds) should think critically about how they use commodity index speculation as a way of generating financial earnings.

‘The voice speaking, desired, awaited’: Jack Lindsay’s 1649, Textual Form and Communist Historiography

This article examines the 1938 historical novel 1649: A Novel of a Year by the Anglo-Australian communist polymath Jack Lindsay in the context of the politics of the Popular Front, and identifies the aesthetic and historiographic debates questions that inform Lindsay’s inventive rendition of the historical novel. The novel may be considered in light of what Lindsay later called his desire ‘to use the novel to revive revolutionary traditions’, as well as his ‘struggle to achieve an understanding of the Novel while writing novels’. Lindsay’s novel figures a reality becoming prosaic: it reproduces contemporary textual sources – tracts, pamphlets, newspapers – as part of its meditation on a nascent print culture whose products circulate in processes that mirror the increasingly conspicuous flow of commodities. In this sense, the novel offers a marxist reflection on its own conditions of possibility in emergent bourgeois culture, as well as intervening in the vexed question of the Civil War as a ‘bourgeois revolution’. The novel however seeks to capture a dialectical method of representing the revolution that acknowledges defeat while rearticulating the utopian content of the defeated radicals, a practice integral to Lindsay’s vision of popular history as a transhistorical dialogue. That utopian content is transmitted through two forms: popular song, which acts to supplement political writing; and the heroic portrayal of the Leveller John Lilburne on trial, whose conduct exemplifies praxis conceived as a unity of word, thought and action.

Time beyond clock: time use-surveys revisited

Time use surveys -despite having represented a turning point in the study of inequalities between women and men- continue hiding care times and subtracting relevance to the qualitative dimensions of time. This due both, to the ideological conception that lies behind this type of studies that consider more relevant market process as to surveys methodology. This article analyzes the theoretical model that lies behind time use surveys and, consequently, the study of the conceptual aspects, the methodology and the potential of these surveys as an analytical instrument. The aim is to unraveling the limitations presented by the surveys to take in account the subjective dimensions of time related to the wellbeing of  people.

Anclaje, dinámicas e impactos territoriales de la cadena global de cítricos dulces en el nordeste argentino

El artículo analiza firmas insertas en circuitos globalizados de exportación de frutas frescas, así como la interfase empresas-territorios. Se focaliza en la producción argentina de cítricos dulces y particularmente en un espacio productivo, y se interesa por cómo se traduce la construcción de los circuitos globales en los espacios y actores locales. Para ello, desarrolla una tipología de empresas e indicadores de anclaje y recurre a una combinación de fuentes cuantitativas y cualitativas, con vistas a desentrañar la “caja negra” del comportamiento empresarial. Se concluye que existen diferentes grados de anclaje territorial y combinaciones variables de fijación y movilidad por parte de las empresas. La adopción de una modalidad de agricultura empresarial multilocalizada, orientada al aprovechamiento de las peculiaridades de los diferentes ambientes locales, conduce a la desarticulación de espacios en función de sus características productivas y de sus diversos contextos sociales e institucionales. De esta forma se promueve la conformación de agentes de características flexibles, transformando su reproducción en contingente.