A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Classification of urban multi-angular image sequences by aligning their manifolds

When dealing with multi-angular image sequences, problems of reflectance changes due either to illumination and acquisition geometry, or to interactions with the atmosphere, naturally arise. These phenomena interplay with the scene and lead to a modification of the measured radiance: for example, according to the angle of acquisition, tall objects may be seen from top or from the side and different light scatterings may affect the surfaces. This results in shifts in the acquired radiance, that make the problem of multi-angular classification harder and might lead to catastrophic results, since surfaces with the same reflectance return significantly different signals. In this paper, rather than performing atmospheric or bi-directional reflection distribution function (BRDF) correction, a non-linear manifold learning approach is used to align data structures. This method maximizes the similarity between the different acquisitions by deforming their manifold, thus enhancing the transferability of classification models among the images of the sequence.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 1. Cichlids in a crater lake.

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of cichlids in Lake Apoyo in Nicaragua is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here, we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this cichlid system. Our results show that relatively rapid (<20,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche and (sympatric or parapatric) speciation via local adaptation and divergence in habitat and mating preferences are theoretically plausible if: (i) the number of loci underlying the traits controlling local adaptation, and habitat and mating preferences is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; (iii) the carrying capacity of the population is intermediate; and (iv) the effects of the loci influencing nonrandom mating are strong. We discuss patterns and timescales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.

Deep crustal electromagnetic structure of Bhuj earthquake region (India) and its implications

The existence of fluids and partial melt in the lower crust of the seismically active Kutch rift basin (on the western continental margin of India) owing to underplating has been proposed in previous geological and geophysical studies. This hypothesis is examined using magnetotelluric (MT) data acquired at 23 stations along two profiles across Kutch Mainland Uplift and Wagad Uplift. A detailed upper crustal structure is also presented using twodimensional inversion of MT data in the Bhuj earthquake (2001) area. The prominent boundaries of reflection in the upper crust at 5, 10 and 20 km obtained in previous seismic reflection profiles correlate with conductive structures in our models. The MT study reveals 1-2 km thick Mesozoic sediments under the Deccan trap cover. The Deccan trap thickness in this region varies from a few meters to 1.5 km. The basement is shallow on the northern side compared to the south and is in good agreement with geological models as well as drilling information. The models for these profiles indicate that the thickness of sediments would further increase southwards into the Gulf of Kutch. Significant findings of the present study indicate 1) the hypocentre region of the earthquake is devoid of fluids, 2) absence of melt (that is emplaced during rifting as suggested from the passive seismological studies) in the lower crust and 3) a low resistive zone in the depth range of 5-20 km. The present MT study rules out fluidsand melt (magma) as the causative factors that triggered the Bhuj earthquake. The estimated porosity value of 0.02% will explain 100-500 ohm·m resistivity values observed in the lower crust. Based on the seismic velocities and geochemical studies, presence of garnet is inferred. The lower crust consists of basalts - probably generated by partial melting of metasomatised garnet peridotite at deeper depths in the lithosphere - and their composition might be modified by reaction with the spinel peridotites.

A benchmark test for a quantitative assessment of simple neuron models

Several methods and algorithms have recently been proposed that allow for the systematic evaluation of simple neuron models from intracellular or extracellular recordings. Models built in this way generate good quantitative predictions of the future activity of neurons under temporally structured current injection. It is, however, difficult to compare the advantages of various models and algorithms since each model is designed for a different set of data. Here, we report about one of the first attempts to establish a benchmark test that permits a systematic comparison of methods and performances in predicting the activity of rat cortical pyramidal neurons. We present early submissions to the benchmark test and discuss implications for the design of future tests and simple neurons models

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals.

Detailed large-scale information on mammal distribution has often been lacking, hindering conservation efforts. We used the information from the 2009 IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as a baseline for developing habitat suitability models for 5027 out of 5330 known terrestrial mammal species, based on their habitat relationships. We focused on the following environmental variables: land cover, elevation and hydrological features. Models were developed at 300 m resolution and limited to within species' known geographical ranges. A subset of the models was validated using points of known species occurrence. We conducted a global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness. The richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by the overlap of their geographical ranges. The highest absolute difference is found in tropical and subtropical regions in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia that are not covered by dense forest. The proportion of suitable habitat within mammal geographical ranges correlates with the IUCN Red List category to which they have been assigned, decreasing monotonically from Least Concern to Endangered. These results demonstrate the importance of fine-resolution distribution data for the development of global conservation strategies for mammals.

Response to the comments on "The formation of Pangea" by D.A. Ruban

The Variscan structures of the Caucasus region are still quite difficult to decipher, they certainly deserved some in depth investigations in the future. Thus, it is right to question any paleogeographic models proposed in that area, as made by D.A. Ruban. We present here the arguments that we used to decide on the distribution of the terranes in that region. The Transcaucasus massif is regarded as pertaining to the Galatian super-terrane, whereas, the Great Caucasus terrane belongs to the Hanseatic ribbon terrane. The latter was a part of Hunia, detached from Laurussia in the Devonian.

Role of dendritic cells in the lung: in vitro models, animal models and human studies

Dendritic cells (DCs) are the most potent antigen-presenting cells in the human lung and are now recognized as crucial initiators of immune responses in general. They are arranged as sentinels in a dense surveillance network inside and below the epithelium of the airways and alveoli, where thet are ideally situated to sample inhaled antigen. DCs are known to play a pivotal role in maintaining the balance between tolerance and active immune response in the respiratory system. It is no surprise that the lungs became a main focus of DC-related investigations as this organ provides a large interface for interactions of inhaled antigens with the human body. During recent years there has been a constantly growing body of lung DC-related publications that draw their data from in vitro models, animal models and human studies. This review focuses on the biology and functions of different DC populations in the lung and highlights the advantages and drawbacks of different models with which to study the role of lung DCs. Furthermore, we present a number of up-to-date visualization techniques to characterize DC-related cell interactions in vitro and/or in vivo.

Contribution of electrostatic interactions, compactness and quaternary structure to protein thermostability: lessons from structural genomics of Thermotoga maritima.

Studies of the structural basis of protein thermostability have produced a confusing picture. Small sets of proteins have been analyzed from a variety of thermophilic species, suggesting different structural features as responsible for protein thermostability. Taking advantage of the recent advances in structural genomics, we have compiled a relatively large protein structure dataset, which was constructed very carefully and selectively; that is, the dataset contains only experimentally determined structures of proteins from one specific organism, the hyperthermophilic bacterium Thermotoga maritima, and those of close homologs from mesophilic bacteria. In contrast to the conclusions of previous studies, our analyses show that oligomerization order, hydrogen bonds, and secondary structure play minor roles in adaptation to hyperthermophily in bacteria. On the other hand, the data exhibit very significant increases in the density of salt-bridges and in compactness for proteins from T.maritima. The latter effect can be measured by contact order or solvent accessibility, and network analysis shows a specific increase in highly connected residues in this thermophile. These features account for changes in 96% of the protein pairs studied. Our results provide a clear picture of protein thermostability in one species, and a framework for future studies of thermal adaptation.

Development of Craniofacial Bone Defect Reconstruction Implant Based on Fibre-Reinforced Composite with Photopolymerisable Resin Systems. Experimental studies in vitro and in vivo.

Reconstruction of defects in the craniomaxillofacial (CMF) area has mainly been based on bone grafts or metallic fixing plates and screws. Particularly in the case of large calvarial and/or craniofacial defects caused by trauma, tumours or congenital malformations, there is a need for reliable reconstruction biomaterials, because bone grafts or metallic fixing systems do not completely fulfill the criteria for the best possible reconstruction methods in these complicated cases. In this series of studies, the usability of fibre-reinforced composite (FRC) was studied as a biostable, nonmetallic alternative material for reconstructing artificially created bone defects in frontal and calvarial areas of rabbits. The experimental part of this work describes the different stages of the product development process from the first in vitro tests with resin-impregnated fibrereinforced composites to the in vivo animal studies, in which this FRC was tested as an implant material for reconstructing different size bone defects in rabbit frontal and calvarial areas. In the first in vitro study, the FRC was polymerised in contact with bone or blood in the laboratory. The polymerised FRC samples were then incubated in water, which was analysed for residual monomer content by using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). It was found that this in vitro polymerisation in contact with bone and blood did not markedly increase the residual monomer leaching from the FRC. In the second in vitro study, different adhesive systems were tested in fixing the implant to bone surface. This was done to find an alternative implant fixing system to screws and pins. On the basis of this study, it was found that the surface of the calvarial bone needed both mechanical and chemical treatments before the resinimpregnated FRC could be properly fixed onto it. In three animal studies performed with rabbit frontal bone defects and critical size calvarial bone defect models, biological responses to the FRC implants were evaluated. On the basis of theseevaluations, it can be concluded that the FRC, based on E-glass (electrical glass) fibres forming a porous fibre veil enables the ingrowth of connective tissues to the inner structures of the material, as well as the bone formation and mineralization inside the fibre veil. Bone formation could be enhanced by using bioactive glass granules fixed to the FRC implants. FRC-implanted bone defects healed partly; no total healing of defects was achieved. Biological responses during the follow-up time, at a maximum of 12 weeks, to resin-impregnated composite implant seemed to depend on the polymerization time of the resin matrix of the FRC. Both of the studied resin systems used in the FRC were photopolymerised and the heat-induced postpolymerisation was used additionally.

Effects of colonization asymmetries on metapopulation persistence.

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity.

Investigation of discrete imaging models and iterative image reconstruction in differential X-ray phase-contrast tomography.

Differential X-ray phase-contrast tomography (DPCT) refers to a class of promising methods for reconstructing the X-ray refractive index distribution of materials that present weak X-ray absorption contrast. The tomographic projection data in DPCT, from which an estimate of the refractive index distribution is reconstructed, correspond to one-dimensional (1D) derivatives of the two-dimensional (2D) Radon transform of the refractive index distribution. There is an important need for the development of iterative image reconstruction methods for DPCT that can yield useful images from few-view projection data, thereby mitigating the long data-acquisition times and large radiation doses associated with use of analytic reconstruction methods. In this work, we analyze the numerical and statistical properties of two classes of discrete imaging models that form the basis for iterative image reconstruction in DPCT. We also investigate the use of one of the models with a modern image reconstruction algorithm for performing few-view image reconstruction of a tissue specimen.

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.