Racionális és intuitív döntéshozók Kaliforniában és Magyarországon (Analysis or Intuition – Strategic decision making in California and Hungary)

Stratégiai döntéseket jellemzően a vállalatok felső vezetői, vezérigazgatók és elnökök hoznak. Ennek szellemében a szerző negyven felső vezetőt kérdezett meg két nagyon különböző régióban (Kaliforniában és Magyarországon) egy összehasonlító kutatás keretében. A két országban tizenkét válaszadó vezérigazgató, elnök, alelnök vagy felelős vezető volt (rájuk mint Vezetőkre hivatkoztunk), miközben nyolcan alapítói és többségi tulajdonosai voltak saját vállalkozásuknak (őket nevezzük Vállalkozóknak). A kutatás három területre irányult: 1) Hogyan hoznak döntéseket a felső vezetők a valóságban a világ e két különböző táján 2) Mennyiben különböznek – ha egyáltalán különböznek – a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők az alkalmazott döntéshozatali közelítésmódot tekintve, amikor az analitikus gondolkodást az intuícióikkal kombinálják 3) Mik a hasonlóságok és a különbségek a menedzsmentképességekben és a döntéshozatali rutinokban a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők között a vizsgált menedzsmentkultúrákban? ______ Strategic decision making is usually conducted by a firm’s top management, led by the CEO or the President of the company. In keeping with this, 40 top level managers in two very different regions (California, USA and Hungary) were targeted in a comparative research study. In the two countries, twelve of the managers were CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents or Chief Officers (hereafter referred to as Executives) while eight were founders and majority owners of their own enterprises (hereafter referred to as Entrepreneurs). The research focused on the following 3 areas: 1) How top level managers really make strategic decisions in these two different parts of the world; 2) How Entrepreneurs and Executives differ, if at all, in their approach to strategic decision making when they combine analytical thinking with their intuition; 3) The similarities and differences in management skills and decision making routines between Entrepreneurs and Executives within the investigated management cultures.

Vezetői döntéshozatal és versenyképesség (The managerial decision making and the competitiveness)

A tanulmány a vezetői döntéshozatal három lényeges aspektusát tárja fel. A Versenyben a világgal c. kutatási program eredményei alapján arra lehet következtetni, hogy a menedzserek döntéshozatali képességei és megközelítései, a vállalati teljesítménymérés és menedzsment döntéseket támogató szerepe, valamint a vállalatok érintettekhez fűződő viszonya meghatározó lehet a hatékony vezetői döntéshozatal során. A vállalati döntéshozatal jellemzőinek bemutatása után megvizsgáljuk azt is, hogy a különböző teljesítményű cégek döntéseit mennyire támogatja a menedzserek felkészültsége, a teljesítménymérési gyakorlat és az érintettek elvárásai. A szerzők úgy találták, hogy a fenti tényezők mindegyike hozzájárul a hazai cégek versenyképességéhez, általánosságban ugyanis elmondható, hogy a döntéseket támogató vállalati környezet jobb üzleti teljesítményhez és gyorsabb reagálóképességhez vezethet. Az eredmények összegzése mellett ajánlásokkal is éltek a vállalatok számára, amelyek alkalmazásával hatékonyabb döntéseket hozhatnak. _______ This study presents three main aspects of the managerial decision making. Based on the results of the research program In competition with the World it points to the fact that decision making abilities and approaches of the managers, the corporate performance appraisal and the management decision support role, and the corporate relations to the stakeholders will be determinant in the process of the efficient managerial decision making. After presentation of characteristics of the corporate decision making the authors examine that how the decisions of enterprises with different performances are supported by the preparedness of the managers, the performance appraisal practice and the stakeholders expectations. The authors have thought that every factor contributes to the competitiveness of the domestic enterprises, and generally the decision supporting corporate environment can lead to better business performance and faster responsive abilities. Besides the results summary the authors give useful recommendations to the corporations with which they can make more efficient decisions.

Analysis and intuition in strategic decision making. The case of California

Many management scholars believe that the process used to make strategic decisions affects the quality of those decisions. However several authors have observed a lack of research on the strategic decision making process. Empirical tests of factors that have been hypothesized to affect the way strategic decisions are made notably are absent. (Fredrickson, 1985) This paper reports the results of a study that attempts to assess the effects of decision making circumstances focusing mainly on the approaches applied and the managerial skills and capabilities the decision makers built on during concrete strategic decision making procedures. The study was conducted in California between September 2005 and June 2006 and it was sponsored by a Fulbright Research Scholarship Grant.

Ethical decision making

The self-centeredness of modern organizations leads to environmental destruction and human deprivation. The principle of responsibility developed by Hans Jonas requires caring for the beings affected by our decisions and actions. Ethical decision-making creates a synthesis of reverence for ethical norms, rationality in goal achievement, and respect for the stakeholders. The maximin rule selects the "least worst alternative" in the multidimensional decision space of deontological, goal-achievement and stakeholder values. The ethical decision-maker can be characterized as having the ability to take multiple perspectives and make appropriate balance across diverse value dimensions. Modern organizations should develop a critical sensitivity to and empathy toward human and non-human beings with which they share a common environment.

Adaptív döntéshozatal a beszállítóválasztás példáján (Adaptive decision-making on example of the supplier selection)

Ez a tanulmány a projektvezetési szakirodalomban kialakult ismeretanyagot szem előtt tartva (noha tételesen nem hivatkozva arra) tárja fel azt a sajátos és tipikusnak nevezhető kontextust, amelyben a projektalapú szervezetek projektmarketing tevékenysége megnyilvánul. A tanulmány célja tehát nem magának a projektmarketingnek a kérdéskörére irányul, hanem elsősorban annak projektspecifikus kontextusára. Jellegét illetően a tanulmány spekulatív jellegű, vagyis lényegét tekintve nem empirikus kutatási eredményekből levont következtetésekre épül. _____ The author analyses the cognitive level of individual decisions by placing the adaptive decision-maker in the centre of interest. The main question is how do adaptive processes evolve and what factors determine the adaptive mechanism. The author builds on his own qualitative study conducted with the Grounded Theory Methodology in the SME sector. The supplier selection decision is chosen from the wide range of business decisions. From the research results the two elements of the adaptive mechanism – the metastructure and the attitude set –, the process of their evolution and the factors determining this process are presented. The findings here are a middle-range theory, which can be elaborated further, but they provide some interesting insights already.

Individual decision-making by top executives as a valuable resource for strategic management – A resource-based view and dynamic capability approach

Strategy is highly important for organisational success and the achievement of competitive advantage. Strategy is dynamic and it depends on accurate individual decision-making from medium and high-level managers and executives. Since managers always formulate strategy, its formulation depends mostly on their assertive decisions. Making good decisions is a complex task, even more in today’s business world where a large quantity of information and a dynamic environment forces people to decide without having complete information. As Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky (1993) point out, "the making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because of uncertainty and conflict". In this paper the author will explain a basic theoretical framework about top manager's individual decision-making, showing how complex the process of making high-impact decisions is; then, he will compare this theory with one of the most important streams in strategic management, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. Finally, within the context of individual decision-making and the RBV stream, the author will show how individual decision makers in top management positions constitute a valuable, rare, non-imitable and non-substitutable resource that provides sustained competitive advantage.

The role of exploration and critical decision making and problem solving in making life choices

Although the literature on the types of abilities and processes that contribute to identity formation has been growing, the research has been mainly descriptive/correlational. This dissertation conducted an experimental investigation of the role of two theoretically distinct processes (exploration and critical problem solving) in identity formation, one of the first to be reported. The experimental training design (pre-post, training versus control) used in this study was intended to promote identity development by fostering an increase in the use of exploration and critical problem solving with respect to making life choices. Participants included 53 psychology students from a large urban university randomly assigned to each group. The most theoretically significant finding was that the intervention was successful in inducing change in the ability to use critical skills in resolving life decisions, as well as effecting a positive change in identity status. ^

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

A fresh look at decision making in international investment choices: Firm international coherence and home-host country relatedness

Understanding how decisions for international investments are made and how this affects the overall pattern of investments and firm’s performance is of particular importance both in strategy and international business research. This dissertation introduced first home-host country relatedness (HHCR) as the degree to which countries are efficiently combined within the investment portfolios of firms. It theorized and demonstrated that HHCR will vary with the motivation for investments along at least two key dimensions: the nature of foreign investments and the connectedness of potential host countries to the rest of the world. Drawing on cognitive psychology and decision-making research, it developed a theory of strategic decision making proposing that strategic solutions are chosen close to a convenient anchor. Building on research on memory imprinting, it also proposed that managers tend to rely on older knowledge representation. In the context of international investment decisions, managers use their home countries as an anchor and are more likely to choose as a site for foreign investments host countries that are ‘close’ to the home country. These decisions are also likely to rely more strongly on closeness to time invariant country factors of historic and geographic nature rather than time-variant institutions. Empirical tests using comprehensive investments data by all public multinational companies (MNC) worldwide, or over 15,000 MNCs with over half a million subsidiaries, support the claims. Finally, the dissertation introduced the concept of International Coherence (IC) defined as the degree to which an MNE’s network comprises countries that are related. It was hypothesized that maintaining a high level of coherence is important for firm performance and will enhance it. Also, the presence of international coherence mitigates some of the negative effects of unrelated product diversification. Empirical tests using data on foreign investments of over 20,000 public firms, while also developing a home-host country relatedness index for up to 24,300 home-host pairs, provided support for the theory advanced.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach to Compare and Contrast the Websites of China-based and U.S-based Hotels

The improvement in living standards and the development of telecommunications have led to a large increase in the number of Internet users in China. It has been reported by China National Network Information Center that the number of Internet users in China has reached 33.7 million in 2001, ranting the country third in the world. This figure also shows that more and more Chinese residents have accepted the Internet and use it to obtain information and compete their travel planning. Milne and Ateljevic stated that the integration of computing and telecommunications would create a global information network based mostly on the Internet. The Internet, especially the World Wide Web, has had a great impact on the hospitality and tourism industry in recent years. The WWW plays an important role in mediating between customers and hotel companies as a place to acquire information acquisition and transact business.

The role of overseas Chinese investment in the emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia: A Confucian model of the foreign direct investment decision-making process using factors unconsidered in the West

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the foreign direct investment location decision making process through the examination of non-Western investors and their investment strategies in non-traditional markets. This was accomplished through in-depth personal interviews with 50 Overseas Chinese business owners and executives in several different industries from Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand about 97 separate investment projects in Southeast and East Asia, including The Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, Taiwan, and Mainland China.^ Traditional factors utilized in Western models of the foreign direct investment decision making process are reviewed, as well as literature on Asian management systems and the current state of business practices in emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia. Because of the lack of institutionalization in these markets and the strong influences of Confucian and patriarchal value systems on the Overseas Chinese, it was suspected that while some aspects of Western rational economic models of foreign direct investment are utilized, these models are insufficient in this context, and thus are not fully generalizable to the unique conditions of the Overseas Chinese business network in the region without further modification.^ Thus, other factors based on a Confucian value system need to be integrated into these models. Results from the analysis of structured interviews suggest Overseas Chinese businesses rely more heavily on their network and traditional Confucian values than rational economic factors when making their foreign direct investment location decisions in emerging countries in Asia. This effect is moderated by the firm's industry and the age of the firm's owners. ^