Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Genetic risk and a primary role for cell-mediated immune mechanisms in multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability. Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals, and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk. Modestly powered genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects have a key role in disease susceptibility. Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9,772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the HLA-DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly overrepresented among those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T-helper-cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Support services for higher degree research students: A survey of three Australian universities

A survey was conducted across three Australian universities to identify the types and format of support services available for higher degree research (HDR, or MA and Ph.D.) students. The services were classified with regards to availability, location and accessibility. A comparative tool was developed to help institutions categorise their services in terms of academic, administrative, social and settlement, language and miscellaneous (other) supports. All three universities showed similarities in the type of academic support services offered, while differing in social and settlement and language support services in terms of the location and the level of accessibility of these services. The study also examined the specific support services available for culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) students. The three universities differed in their emphases in catering to CALD needs, with their allocation of resources reflecting these differences. The organisation of these services within the universities was further assessed to determine possible factors that may influence the effective delivery of these services, by considering HDR and CALD student specific issues. The findings and tools developed by this study may be useful to HDR supervisors and university administrators in identifying key support services to better improve outcomes for the HDR students and universities.

Flow behavior of LDPE and its blends with LLDPE I and II: A comparative study

Studies on melt rheological properties of blends of low density polyethylene (LDPE) with selected grades of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), which differ widely in their melt flow indices, are reported, The data obtained in a capillary rheometer are presented to describe the effects of blend composition and shear rate on flow behavior index, melt viscosity, and melt elasticity. In general, blending of LLDPE I that has a low melt flow index (2 g/10 min) with LDPE results in a decrease of its melt viscosity, processing temperature, and the tendency of extrudate distortion, depending on blending ratio. A blending ratio around 20-30% LLDPE I seems optimum from the point of view of desirable improvement in processability behavior. On the other hand, blending of LLDPE II that has a high melt flow index (10 g/10 min) with LDPE offers a distinct advantage in increasing the pseudoplasticity of LDPE/LLDPE II blends.

Fatigue crack growth rates and fracture toughness in electroslag refined En 52 steel

En 52 steel has been electroslag refined and the resultant effects of refining on its mechanical properties have been assessed. It was found that refining caused a decrease in fatigue crack growth rates and increases in fatigue strength, fracture toughness, Charpy fracture energy and tensile ductility. Fatigue crack growth rates in region I and in region III were found to be considerably lower in the electroslag refined steel: they were unaffected in region II. The fracture toughness values for the electroslag refined steel are nearly twice those estimated for the unrefined steel. Measurements on heat-treated samples have shown that the electroslag refined steel has a better response to heat-treatment. The improvement in the mechanical properties is explained in terms of the removal of nonmetallic inclusions and a reduction in the sulphur content of the steel.

Effect of electroslag refining on the fracture toughness and fatigue crack propagation rates in heat treated AISI 4340 steel

The AISI 4340 steel has been electroslag refined and the improvement in mechanical properties has been assessed. Electroslag refining (ESR) has improved tensile ductility, plane strain fracture toughness, Charpy fracture energy, and has decreased fatigue crack growth rates. The KIC values for the ESR steel are nearly twice those estimated in the unrefined steel and higher than those obtained in the vacuum arc remelted steel. Fatigue crack growth rates in region I and in region III are found to be decreased considerably in the ESR steel, while they are unaffected in region II. Measurements on heat treated samples have shown that the ESR steel has a better response to heat treatment. Both the suggested heat treatments namely austenitizing at 1140–1470 K as well as the conventional heat treatment of austenitizing at 1140 K have been followed. The improvement in the mechanical properties of ESR steel has been explained on the basis of removal of nonmetallic inclusions and reduction in sulfur content in the steel.

Influence of heat treatment on the strength and fracture behaviour of Fe-12Cr-6Al ferritic stainless steel

The changes in the tensile properties and fracture mode brought about by heat treatment of Fe-12Cr-6Al ferritic stainless steel have been studied. A favourable combination of high strength and good ductility is obtained by heating the material at 1370 K for 2 h followed by a water quench. The high-temperature treatment results in carbide dissolution as well as an increase in the grain size. The mechanism of strengthening has been evaluated from the apparent activation energy (28 kJ mol–1) and is identified to be the unpinning of dislocations from the atmosphere of carbon atoms. As the heat-treatment temperature is increased, the fracture behaviour changes from ductile to brittle mode and this is related to the changes in grain size and friction stress.

Structural Basis of Drug Resistance by Genetic Variants of HIV Type 1 Clade C Protease from India

Using computer modeling of three-dimensional structures and structural information available on the crystal structures of HIV-1 protease, we investigated the structural effects of mutations, in treatment-naive and treatment-exposed individuals from India and postulated mechanisms of resistance in clade C variants. A large number of models (14) have been generated by computational mutation of the available crystal structures of drug bound proteases. Localized energy minimization was carried out in and around the sites of mutation in order to optimize the geometry of interactions present. Most of the mutations result in structural differences at the flap that favors the semiopen state of the enzyme. Some of the mutations were also found to confer resistance by affecting the geometry of the active site. The E35D mutation affects the flap structure in clade B strains and E35N and E35K mutation, seen in our modeled strains, have a more profound effect. Common polymorphisms at positions 36 and 63 in clade C also affected flap structure. Apart from a few other residues Gln-58, Asn-83, Asn-88, and Gln-92 and their interactions are important for the transition from the closed to the open state. Development of protease inhibitors by structure-based design requires investigation of mechanisms operative for clade C to improve the efficacy of therapy.

Gustaf III inför sina undersåtar : Konsten att härska och politikens kulturhistoria

The dissertation analyses the political culture of Sweden during the reign of King Gustav III (1771-1792). This period commonly referred to as the Gustavian era followed the so-called Age of Liberty ending half a century of strong parliamentary rule in Sweden. The question at the heart of this study engages with the practice of monarchical rule under Gustav III, its ideological origins and power-political objectives as well as its symbolic expression. The study thereby addresses the very nature of kingship. In concrete terms, why did Gustav III, his court, and his civil service vigorously pursue projects that contemporaneous political opponents and, in particular, subsequent historiography have variously pictured as irrelevant, superficial, or as products of pure vanity? The answer, the study argues, is to be found in patterns of political practice as developed and exercised by Gustav III and his administration, which formed a significant part of the political culture of Gustavian Sweden. The dissertation is divided into three parts. The first traces the use and development of royal graces chivalric orders, medals, titles, privileges, and other gifts issued by the king. The practice of royal reward is illustrated through two case studies: the 1772 coup d état that established Gustav III s rule, and the birth and baptism of the crown prince, Gustav Adolf, in 1778. The second part deals with the establishment of the Court of Appeal in Vasa in 1776. The formation of the Appeals Court was accompanied by a host of ceremonial, rhetorical, emblematic, and architectural features solidifying its importance as one of Gustav III s most symbolic administrative reform projects and hence portraying the king as an enlightened monarch par excellence. The third and final part of the thesis engages with war as a cultural phenomenon and focuses on the Russo-Swedish War of 1788-1790. In this study, the war against Russia is primarily seen as an arena for the king and other players to stage, create and re-create as well as articulate themselves through scenes and roles adhering to a particular cultural idiom. Its codes and symbolic forms, then, were communicated by means of theatre, literature, art, history, and classical mythology. The dissertation makes use of a host of sources: protocols, speeches, letters, diaries, newspapers, poetry, art, medals, architecture, inscriptions and registers. Traditional political source material and literary and art sources are studied as totalities, not as separate entities. Also it is argued that political and non-fictional sources cannot be understood properly without acknowledging the context of genre, literary conventions, and artistic modes. The study critically views the futile, but nonetheless almost habitual juxtaposition of the reality of images, ideas, and metaphors, and the reality of supposedly factual historical events. Significantly, the thesis presumes the symbolic dimension to be a constitutive element of reality, not its cooked up misrepresentation. This presumption is reflected in a discussion of the concept of role , which should not be anachronistically understood as roles in which the king cast himself at different times and in different situations. Neither Gustav III nor other European sovereigns of this period played the roles as rulers or majesties. Rather, they were monarchs both in their own eyes and in the eyes of their contemporaries as well as in all relations and contexts. Key words: Eighteenth-Century, Gustav III, Cultural History, Monarchs, Royal Graces, the Vasa Court of Appeal, the Russo-Swedish War 1788–1790.

Determination of the thermodynamic properties of xMgO + (1 x)MnO (s, sln) from a solid-electrolyte galvanic cell in the temperature range 1163 to 1318 K

The thermodynamic activities of MgO in the NaCl-type solid solutions which can exist in xMgO + (1 x)MnO have been determined in the temperature range 1163 to 1318 K from a solid-state galvanic cell incorporating MgF2 as the solid electrolyte. The activities of MnO have been calculated by a graphical Gibbs-Duhem integration method. The activities of both the components exhibit positive deviations from ideality over the entire composition range. The excess molar enthalpies are found to be positive. Further, xMgO + (1 - x)MnO does not conform to regular-solution behaviour. The origin of the excess thermodynamic properties is discussed in relation to the cationic size disparity and the crystal-field effects.

Kinetics of Chemical Vapor Deposition

A generalized mass transport model is developed for predicting the rate ofdeposition in chemical vapor deposition (CVD) systems. This combines thegeneralized method of obtaining equilibrium composition, with elemental fluxbalance expressions. This procedure avoids the usual problems encountered incalculating the rates in multicomponent systems, like writing overall reactionschemes. The dependence of multicomponent diffusivities on the fluxes is accountedin this model using an iterative procedure. The model developed isapplied to the deposition of titanium carbide on cemented carbide tool bitsfrom a gas mixture of titanium tetrachloride, toluene, and hydrogen. Experimentaldeposition rates were obtained using a thermogravimetric assembly.Mass transport controlled rates give an order of magnitude estimates of theobserved rates.

Meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee 1918 in New York

Reproduction of a painting of a meeting of the Joint Distribution Committee (representing the American Jewish Relief Committee, the Central Rellief Committee and the People's Relief Committee) and the Executive Committee of the American Jewish Relief Committee, with chairman Felix Warburg, secretary Albert Lucas, stenographer Mrs. F. Friedman, executive director Boris Bogen, comptroller Harriet Lowenstein, associate treasurer Paul Baerwald and treasurer Arthur Lehman; Office of Mr. Felix M. Warburg, 52 William Street, New York

Breakage of viscoelastic drops in turbulent stirred dispersions

The existing models of drop breakage in stirred turbulent dispersions are applicable only to purely viscous dispersed phases. In their present form, they are found to underpredict the diameters of the largest stable drops formed when a viscoelastic fluid is dispersed into a Newtonian liquid. In purely viscous fluids, the turbulent stresses are opposed both by the stresses due to interfacial tension and the viscous stresses generated as the drop deforms. In viscoelastic fluids, drop deformation produces additional retractive elastic stresses which also oppose turbulent stresses. As the deformation rates are large, the retractive stresses can be large in magnitude. Assuming that these additional stresses decay with time, a model of viscoelastic drop breakage in turbulent stirred dispersions has been developed. The new model quantitatively predicts the dmax of viscoelastic fluids. The model, however, does not predict the observation that when the time constant of the fluid becomes large (λ > 0.5 s), the fluid can not be dispersed into droplets up to agitator speeds of about 10 rps in our equipment.