982 resultados para Probability Distribution


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Recent changes in the operation and planning of power systems have been motivated by the introduction of Distributed Generation (DG) and Demand Response (DR) in the competitive electricity markets' environment, with deep concerns at the efficiency level. In this context, grid operators, market operators, utilities and consumers must adopt strategies and methods to take full advantage of demand response and distributed generation. This requires that all the involved players consider all the market opportunities, as the case of energy and reserve components of electricity markets. The present paper proposes a methodology which considers the joint dispatch of demand response and distributed generation in the context of a distribution network operated by a virtual power player. The resources' participation can be performed in both energy and reserve contexts. This methodology contemplates the probability of actually using the reserve and the distribution network constraints. Its application is illustrated in this paper using a 32-bus distribution network with 66 DG units and 218 consumers classified into 6 types of consumers.

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Abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a parasitic disease caused by Angiostrongylus costaricensis, a metastrongylid nematode with wide geographic distribution, occurring from the United States to Argentina. In Brazil, the disease has been reported from the States of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná, São Paulo, Federal District of Brasilia and Minas Gerais. We report here a case of abdominal angiostrongyliasis in a 9-year-old girl, from Itatiba, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, submitted to exploratory laparotomy for acute abdomen. Extensive inflammatory lesions of terminal ileum and cecum, with perforations of the first, were present, and ileocecal resection was performed. The pathological picture was characterized by transmural inflammatory granulomatous reaction, extensive eosinophilic infiltration, eosinophilic vasculitis and the presence of worms within a mesenteric artery branch, with histological features of metastrongylid nematodes. This case report contributes to a better knowledge of the geographic distribution of this parasite in Brazil, suggesting that abdominal angiostrongyliasis may represent a disease of medical importance, more than a rarity of academic interest.

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Scorpion stings were surveyed in the Montes Municipality of the State of Sucre, Venezuela, aiming to extend the information on these poisonous accidents by characterizing their geographic distribution. From 1980 to 1990, 184 cases of scorpion stings were recorded with an incidence rate of 38.6 cases per 10,000 inhabitants. The locality of San Fernando presented the highest incidence (68.3(0)/000) of poisonous accidents. The highest percentages of severe cases were recorded in the towns of Arenas (27%), San Lorenzo (21%), and Cocollar (19%), which are located at the foot of the Turimiquire Mountains. This region is a dispersion area of scorpions of the Tityus genus. Our results show that this region of the State of Sucre is endemic for scorpion stings which are an important public health problem.

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The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitiveenvironment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The networkcost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribu-tion networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop afairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are usingthe network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, andcongestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation(DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehi-cles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Theproposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in aneconomic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen’s andBialek’s tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the net-work. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distributionnetwork of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposedmodel.

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The use of distribution networks in the current scenario of high penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) is a problem of great importance. In the competitive environment of electricity markets and smart grids, Demand Response (DR) is also gaining notable impact with several benefits for the whole system. The work presented in this paper comprises a methodology able to define the cost allocation in distribution networks considering large integration of DG and DR resources. The proposed methodology is divided into three phases and it is based on an AC Optimal Power Flow (OPF) including the determination of topological distribution factors, and consequent application of the MW-mile method. The application of the proposed tariffs definition methodology is illustrated in a distribution network with 33 buses, 66 DG units, and 32 consumers with DR capacity.

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Thirty six cases of acute disseminated paracoccidioidomycosis in 3 to 12 year-old children, natives of the state of Rio de Janeiro, were seen in the period 1981-1996. All patients were residents in the rural region of 15 counties, scattered on the Southwestern part of this state. The rural region of two neighboring counties, where 16 cases (44.4%) occurred, was visited. It exhibited the environmental conditions that are considered favorable to the survival of P. brasiliensis. The most important of these conditions, abundant watercourses and autochthonous forest, are distributed on well defined and limited areas, in which the dwellings are also localized. Probably, a careful epidemiological study of forthcoming cases of the disease in children may facilitate the search for the micro-niche of the fungus.

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There has been several studies worldwide on phylogenetics and genotype distribution of the GB-virus C / Hepatitis G virus (GBV-C/HGV). However, in their great majority, those investigations were based on some epidemiologically linked group, rather than on a representative sampling of the general population. The present is a continuation of the first study in Brazil with such a population; it addresses the GBV-C/HGV phylogenetics and genotype distribution based on samples identified among more than 1,000 individuals of the city of São Paulo. For this purpose, a 728 bp fragment of the 5´non-coding region (5´NCR) of the viral genome, from 24 isolates, was sequenced and subjected to phylogenetic analysis. Genotypes 1, 2a and 2b were found at 8.3% (2/24), 50% (12/24) and 41.7% (10/24), respectively. In conclusion São Paulo displays a genotype distribution similar to the published data for other States and Regions of Brazil, endorsing the notion that types 1 and 2 would have entered the country with African and European people, respectively, since its earliest formation.

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Recent studies have shown differences in the epidemiology of invasive infections caused by Candida species worldwide. In the period comprising August 2002 to August 2003, we performed a study in Santa Casa Complexo Hospitalar, Brazil, to determine Candida species distribution associated with candidemia and their antifungal susceptibility profiles to amphotericin B, fluconazole and itraconazole. Antifungal susceptibility was tested according to the broth microdilution method described in the NCCLS (M27A-2 method). Only one sample from each patient was analyzed (the first isolate). Most of the episodes had been caused by species other than C. albicans (51.6%), including C. parapsilosis (25.8%), C. tropicalis (13.3%), C. glabrata (3.3%), C. krusei (1.7%), and others (7.5%). Dose-dependent susceptibility to itraconazole was observed in 14.2% of strains, and dose-dependent susceptibility to fluconazole was found in 1.6%. Antifungal resistance was not found, probably related to low use of fluconazole. Further epidemiological surveillance is needed.

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Catastrophic events, such as wars and terrorist attacks, big tornadoes and hurricanes, huge earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and landslides, are always accompanied by a large number of casualties. The size distribution of these casualties have separately been shown to follow approximate power law (PL) distributions. In this paper, we analyze the number of victims of catastrophic phenomena, in particular, terrorism, and find double PL behavior. This means that the data set is better approximated by two PLs instead of one. We have plotted the two PL parameters corresponding to all terrorist events occurred in every year, from 1980 to 2010. We observe an interesting pattern in the chart, where the lines, that connect each pair of points defining the double PLs, are roughly aligned to each other.

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In order to investigate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes in mid-west region of Brazil, 250 anti-HCV positive blood donors were studied. Among them, the anti-HCV serological status was confirmed in 205 (82%). HCV RNA was detected in 165 samples, which were genotyped. HCV types 1, 2 and 3 were found in 67.9%, 3% and 29.1% of the donors, respectively. In Goiás state, subtype 1a (50%) was the most prevalent, followed by subtypes 3a (30.9%) and 1b (16.7%). In Mato Grosso state, subtype 1a was also predominant (41%), followed by subtypes 1b (29.5%) and 3a (25%). In Mato Grosso do Sul state, subtypes 1a and 1b were detected equally (36.8%), followed by 3a (21.1%). Subtype 2b was rare (2.4%, 4.5% and 5.3%, respectively). In Distrito Federal, subtype 3a (39%) was more frequent than 1a (31.7%) and the remaining (29.3%) belonged to subtype 1b.

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One hundred seventy nine Vibrio cholerae non-O1/non-O139 strains from clinical and different environmental sources isolated in Brazil from 1991 to 2000 were serogrouped and screened for the presence of four different virulence factors. The Random Amplification of Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was used to evaluate the genetic relatedness among strains. Fifty-four different serogroups were identified and V. cholerae O26 was the most common (7.8%). PCR analysis for three genes (ctxA, zot, ace) located of the CTX genetic element and one gene (tcpA) located on the VPI pathogenicity island showed that 27 strains harbored one or more of these genes. Eight (4.5%) strains possessed the complete set of CTX element genes and all but one of these belonged to the O26 serogroup suggesting that V. cholerae O26 has the potential to be an epidemic strain. The RAPD profiles revealed a wide variability among strains and no genetic correlation was observed.

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Intense environmental impacts, causing alterations of the natural habitats of fauna, including those of sandfly disease vectors are observed in Mato Grosso State, Central Brazil. Entomologic survey of phlebotomines was based on light trap and was carried out by entomological nucleus of the FUNASA and SES in the period between 1996 and 2001. Eighty eight species were identified, including the following sandflies with medical importance to leishmaniasis: Lutzomyia amazonensis, L. anduzei, L. antunesi, L. ayrozai, L. carrerai carrerai, L. complexa, L. cruzi, L. flaviscutellata, L. intermedia, L. longipalpis, L. migonei, L. paraensis, L. ubiquitalis, L. whitmani and L. yuilli yuilli. Most sandflies of medical importance occurred in the Amazon forest and savannah. L. longipalpis and L. cruzi had high densities in the savannah region. L. flaviscutellata is predominating in both the Amazon forest and the savannah region. L. whitmani and L. antunesi were sampled in the Amazon forest, savannah and marsh land.

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In the traditional paradigm, the large power plants supply the reactive power required at a transmission level and the capacitors and transformer tap changer were also used at a distribution level. However, in a near future will be necessary to schedule both active and reactive power at a distribution level, due to the high number of resources connected in distribution levels. This paper proposes a new multi-objective methodology to deal with the optimal resource scheduling considering the distributed generation, electric vehicles and capacitor banks for the joint active and reactive power scheduling. The proposed methodology considers the minimization of the cost (economic perspective) of all distributed resources, and the minimization of the voltage magnitude difference (technical perspective) in all buses. The Pareto front is determined and a fuzzy-based mechanism is applied to present the best compromise solution. The proposed methodology has been tested in the 33-bus distribution network. The case study shows the results of three different scenarios for the economic, technical, and multi-objective perspectives, and the results demonstrated the importance of incorporating the reactive scheduling in the distribution network using the multi-objective perspective to obtain the best compromise solution for the economic and technical perspectives.

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The high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution networks and the competitive environment of electricity markets impose the use of new approaches in several domains. The network cost allocation, traditionally used in transmission networks, should be adapted and used in the distribution networks considering the specifications of the connected resources. The main goal is to develop a fairer methodology trying to distribute the distribution network use costs to all players which are using the network in each period. In this paper, a model considering different type of costs (fixed, losses, and congestion costs) is proposed comprising the use of a large set of DER, namely distributed generation (DG), demand response (DR) of direct load control type, energy storage systems (ESS), and electric vehicles with capability of discharging energy to the network, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). The proposed model includes three distinct phases of operation. The first phase of the model consists in an economic dispatch based on an AC optimal power flow (AC-OPF); in the second phase Kirschen's and Bialek's tracing algorithms are used and compared to evaluate the impact of each resource in the network. Finally, the MW-mile method is used in the third phase of the proposed model. A distribution network of 33 buses with large penetration of DER is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

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This study proposes a new methodology to increase the power delivered to any load point in a radial distribution network, through the identification of new investments in order to improve the repair time. This research work is innovative and consists in proposing a full optimisation model based on mixed-integer non-linear programming considering the Pareto front technique. The goal is to achieve a reduction in repair times of the distribution networks components, while minimising the costs of that reduction as well as non-supplied energy costs. The optimisation model considers the distribution network technical constraints, the substation transformer taps, and it is able to choose the capacitor banks size. A case study based on a 33-bus distribution network is presented in order to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.