Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Espaços especiais em Natal (moradia e meio ambiente): um necessário diálogo entre direitos e espaços na perspectiva de proteção aos direitos fundamentais na cidade contemporânea

Some protected special spaces on behalf of fundamental rights to the environment and the housing at the city of Natal are fragile by facing actions and attempts to suppress and changing (or omission in the implementation) of standards in furtherance of those rights at the local level, which seems to reflect a situation that goes beyond the context of the city. Based on integrated approach of the housing rights and the environment and its protection of special spaces on the field of fundamental rights, the thesis seeks to understand the weaknesses that affect the legal state duty under the realization/implementation of fundamental rights to the environment and housing in cities, focusing on the issues of flexibility of the founding legislation of special spaces to the detriment of the attributes they protected and the lack of implementation of the legal system that allows their effectiveness. So, it looks initially to understand the environment and housing rights and their special protected areas in the brazilian legal system, looking forward the evolution of its legal protection, as well as the weaknesses that emerge in the field of their effectiveness. Analyzing the trajectory of the environment and housing rights and their special protected areas in Natal, considering its standards, attributes, protection indicators, weaknesses and negative evidence within its legal protections and their enforcement by state entity, this thesis proposes to verify the existence of forms to confronting the weaknesses founded in the maintenance of legal protection and its implementation. At this point it discusses the legal basis and safeguard instruments of protection, especially within the juridical field, as part of a (re)discussion about issues of legislative and administrative discretion in the face of objective legal state duty to realization/implementation of fundamental rights in the urban space. With all these issues together the thesis does not ignore the scenario where the dividing line between public and private (economic) are becoming ever more tenuous in the field of state action and where the city stands as a special commodity to the reproduction of real estate, according to the interests of capitalist logic

Ventilação e prescrições urbanísticas: uma aplicação simulada para a Orla da Praia do Meio em Natal/RN

This work analyses a study on natural ventilation and its relation to the urban legislation versus the building types in an urban fraction of coastal area of Praia do Meio in the city of Natal/RN, approaching the type or types of land use most appropriate to this limited urban fraction. The objective of this study is to analyse the effects of the present legislation as well as the types of buildings in this area on the natural ventilation. This urban fraction was selected because it is one of the sites from where the wind flows into the city of Natal. This research is based on the hypothesis stating that the reduction on the porosity of the urban soil (decrease in the set back/boundary clearance), and an increase in the form (height of the buildings) rise the level of the ventilation gradient, consequently causing a reduction on the wind speed at the lowest part of the buildings. Three-dimensional computational models were used to produce the modes of occupation allowed in the urban fraction within the area under study. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software was also used to analyse the modes of land occupation. Following simulation, a statistical assessment was carried out for validation of the hypothesis. It was concluded that the reduction in the soil porosity as a consequence of the rates that defined the minimum boundary clearance between the building and the boundary of the plot (and consequently the set back), as well as the increase in the building form (height of the buildings) caused a reduction in the wind speed, thus creating heat islands

Meio ambiente e planejamento: a relação cidade-natureza nos Planos Urbanísticos da cidade de Natal no século XX

This research studies the relation between city and nature in the urbanity s plans from Natal RN, Brazil, during the 20th century. Investigates and analyses the main documents that bring environmental s ideas inside from the urbanity s plans of Natal; gives the historical and economical situation from the city in each period studied; features the urbanity s plans, using categories of analyses to comprehension of this instruments. Try to contribute in the bigger process of historical rescue of Natal, and stimulates new studies. It was used documental s research, and bibliographic material. It was identified four (04) kinds of plans: the ones that focus in health and aesthetic (1901, 1929, 1935) technology and science (1968), zoning and control (1974, 1984) and environment. The hints founded shows that environmental ideas were put inside of the plans by government demands, especially in 1994 s plan, almost always without popular contribution and without this population get understands its meanings and implications

Análise do licenciamento ambiental como instrumento de política do meio ambiente no Rio Grande do Norte Período 1992-2003

This analysis on the ambient licensing is based on a research that identifies the fragilities and advances of the application of this instrument of politics of the environment in the ambient politics of the Rio Grande do Norte, in the period of 1992 the 2003. The isolated urban area of Búzios, situated in the City of Nísia Floresta/RN, situated in the eastern coast of the State, where concentrates the boarding of the ambient question as a matter in the Brazilian process of urbanization, over all the institutionalization and implementation of the ambient licensing. They are distinguished in the used methodology in consultation to the diverse involved social segments with the ambient subject in study, the example of the managers, technician and specialists, as well as the application of the legislation and norms techniques, the forms of appropriation of the common wealth and the procedures of ambient licensing of the competent agencies. The results of the research designate that the ambient licensing while instrument of the ambient politics is one of the alternatives more efficient as techniques in the process of sustainable development, since it is beyond the prerogatives to conciliate the activities and enterprises with the conservation of the environmental resources and natural benefits to the societies. In the RN one evidenced progress in the ambient legislation and the instructions techniques, and that the imperfections and limitations in the system of ambient licensing are not directly on to the instruments, but in the implementation of mechanisms of the ambient agencies. This because they do not make use of operational structure to apply in practical and established abilities, as an ambient management, institutional joint and deliberations of the State Counselor for Environment

A organização do processo de projeto de arquitetura no meio profissional: uma análise da produção em escritórios

This paper examines, through case studies, the organization of the production process of architectural projects in architecture offices in the city of Natal, specifically in relation to building projects. The specifics of the design process in architecture, the production of the project in a professional field in Natal, are studied in light of theories of design and its production process. The survey, in its different phases, was conducted between March 2010 and September 2012 and aimed to identify, understand, and analyze comparatively, by mapping the design process, the organization of production of building projects in two offices in Natal, checking as well the relationships of their agents during the process. The project was based on desk research and exploration, adopting, for both, data collection tools such as forms, questionnaires, and interviews. With the specific aim of mapping the design process, we adopted a technique that allows obtaining the information directly from employee agents involved in the production process. The technique consisted of registering information by completing daily, during or at the end of the workday, an individual virtual agenda, in which all agent collaborators described the tasks performed. The data collected allowed for the identification of the organizational structure of the office, its hierarchy, the responsibilities of agents, as well as the tasks performed by them during the two months of monitoring at each office. The research findings were based on analyses of data collected in the two offices and on comparative studies between the results of these analyses. The end result was a diagnostic evaluation that considered the level of organization and elaborated this perspective, as well as proposed solutions aimed at improving both the organization of the process and the relationships between the agents under the lens analyzed

Análise por meio de espectroscopia de emissão óptica das espécies ativas em nitretação iônica e gaiola catódica

Plasma process like ionic nitriding and cathodic cage plasma nitriding are utilized in order to become hard surface of steels. The ionic nitriding is already accepted in the industry while cathodic cage plasma nitriding process is in industrial implementation stage. Those process depend of plasma parameters like electronic and ionic temperature (Te, Ti), species density (ne, ni) and of distribution function of these species. In the present work, the plasma used to those two processes has been observed through Optical Emission Spectroscopy OES technique in order to identify presents species in the treatment ambient and relatively quantify them. So plasma of typical mixtures like N2 H2 has been monitored through in order to study evolution of those species during the process. Moreover, it has been realized a systematic study about leaks, also thought OES, that accomplish the evolution of contaminant species arising because there is flux of atmosphere to inside nitriding chamber and in what conditions the species are sufficiently reduced. Finally, to describe the physic mechanism that acts on both coating techniques ionic nitriding and cathodic cage plasma nitriding

Estudo da sinterabilidade de ligas de níquel obtidas por meio dos portadores de liga sic, si3n4 ou si metálico com grafita

Nickel alloys are frequently used in applications that require resistance at high temperatures associated with resistance to corrosion. Alloys of Ni-Si-C can be obtained by means of powder metallurgy in which powder mixtures are made of metallic nickel powders with additions of various alloying carriers for such were used in this study SiC, Si3N4 or Si metal with graphite. Carbonyl Ni powder with mean particle size of 11 mM were mixed with 3 wt% of SiC powders with an average particle size of 15, 30 and 50 μm and further samples were obtained containing 4 to 5% by mass of SiC with average particle size of 15 μm. Samples were also obtained by varying the carrier alloy, these being Si3N4 powder with graphite, with average particle size of 1.5 and 5 μm, respectively. As a metallic Si graphite with average particle size of 12.5 and 5 μm, respectively. The reference material used was nickel carbonyl sintered without adding carriers. Microstructural characterization of the alloys was made by optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy with semi-quantitative chemical analysis. We determined the densities of the samples and measurement of microhardness. We studied the dissociation of carriers alloy after sintering at 1200 ° C for 60 minutes. Was evaluated also in the same sintering conditions, the influence of the variation of average particle size of the SiC carrier to the proportion of 3% by mass. Finally, we studied the influence of variation of the temperatures of sintering at 950, 1080 and 1200 ° C without landing and also with heights of 30, 60, 120 and 240 minutes for sintering where the temperature was 950 °C. Dilatometry curves showed that the SiC sintered Ni favors more effectively than other carriers alloy analyzed. SiC with average particle size of 15 μm active sintering the alloy more effectively than other SiC used. However, with the chemical and morphological analyzes for all leagues, it was observed that there was dissociation of SiC and Si3N4, as well as diffusion of Si in Ni matrix and carbon cluster and dispersed in the matrix, which also occurred for the alloys with Si carriers and metallic graphite. So the league that was presented better results containing Si Ni with graphite metallic alloy as carriers, since this had dispersed graphite best in the league, reaching the microstructural model proposed, which is necessary for material characteristic of solid lubricant, so how we got the best results when the density and hardness of the alloy

Síntese de nanopartículas de magnetita via decomposição térmica em meio não-aquoso

This work aims at obtaining nanoparticles of iron oxide, the magnetite one (Fe3O4), via synthesis by thermal decomposition through polyol. Thus, two routes were evaluated: a simple decomposition route assisted by reflux and a hydrothermal route both without synthetic air atmosphere using a synthesis temperature of 260ºC. In this work observed the influence of the observe of surfactants which are generally applied in the synthesis of iron oxide nanoparticles decreasing cluster areas. Further, was observed pure magnetite phase without secondary phases generally found in the iron oxide synthesis, a better control of crystallite size, morphology, crystal structure and magnetic behavior. Finally, the introduction of hydroxyl groups on the nanoparticles surface was analyzed besides its employment in the polymer production with OH radicals. The obtained materials were characterized by XRD, DLS, VSM, TEM, TG and DSC analyses. The results for the magnetite obtainment with a particle size greater than 5 nm and smaller than 11 nm, well defined morphology and good magnetic properties with superparamagnetic behavior. The reflux synthesis was more efficient in the deposition of the hydroxyl groups on the nanoparticles surface

Mapeamento de áreas de risco à saúde pública por meio de métodos geoestatísticos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação de diferentes formas de preservação e desenvolvimento in situ de folículos ovarianos pré-antrais caprinos

This study evaluated the effect of indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) in the activation of goats preantral follicles (FOPA). Were used four pairs of ovaries of adult mixed breed goats. Each ovarian pair was divided into 23 fragments. One fragment was fixed for histology and other fragment was using to follicular isolation procedure. The remaining fragments were cultured in 1.0 ml of Minimum Essential Medium (MEM) or MEM supplemented with IAA at concentrations of 10, 40, 100, 500 or 1000 ng/mL. The in vitro culture was performed at 39°C in incubator with 5% CO2 for 1, 3 and 5 days. After in vitro culture was evaluated histological integrity and viability of FOPA. The addition of 100 ng/ml of IAA to MEM showed a significant increase in follicles transition in the third day of in vitro culture, characterizing follicular activation. Moreover, this concentration was obtained maintaining the histological integrity of PAF by the fifth day of in vitro culture. The viability test confirmed the results of histology. Thus, we conclude that IAA can promote the activation of goats FOPA

Cultivo de Ankistrodesmus gracilis (Reisch) Korsikov (Chlorophyta) em laboratório utilizando meio CHU12 e de macrófita com NPK

Two different culture media, namely CHU12 and inorganic fertilizer NPK (20-5-20) associated with macrophyte (Eichhornia crassipes) extract, were used to evaluate the development of A. gracilis. Growth rate, development, nutritional value and medium water quality were analyzed. A. gracilis in macrophyte+NPK medium had mean cell density (333x10(5) cells/mL) higher than medium CHU12 (302x10(5) cells/mL). Protein rate (12.52% PS), dry weight (397x10(7) pg/cell) and ashes (4.08x10(7) pg/cell) in A. gracilis was higher (p<0.05) than medium macrophyte+NPK. on the other hand, lipids, carbohydrates and fibers had the same rate (p>0.05) in both media. When hydrological variables in the culture medium of A. gracilis are taken into account, dissolved oxygen and free CO2 alone failed to have any significant difference (p>0.05) between the media employed. A. gracilis in the macrophyte+NPK medium had the same nutritional rate as the commercial medium CHU12, with excellent results for alga growth. Macrophyte medium may be used for large scale alga culture in the feed of fish larvae.

Tempo livre de lazer e composição corporal de escolares do meio-oeste catarinense

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between free time for leisure and body composition of students in the crucial ninth year. (N = 228) of towns in the Midwest catarinense. We used the Adolescent Behavior Questionnaire of Santa Catarina (COMPAC) to assess lifestyle, considering that Active schoolchildren during the week, accumulated 300 or more minutes of moderate or vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Were used the time to 2 hours or more / day to determine the time of excessive use of TV and computer video game. To analyze body composition were used two criteria: the Body Mass Index (BMI) and sum of skinfolds (EDC). It was observed a proportion of 67.3% of girls and 68.7% of boys assets and more than 98% of students were using excessive TV time, computer and video game. In the classification by EDC, most of the boys showed great or low levels of body composition, while more than half of girls were classified at higher levels. As for BMI, most boys and girls had not overweight. Significant difference in the comparison of total minutes per week of MVPA reported between the groups, the second criterion of EDC and BMI for girls but not for BMI in boys. It is concluded that students with higher accumulation in minutes of MVPA showed better body composition indicators, but no significant difference was found when compared active groups with inactive, according to criteria used.

Tempo de migração dos macrófagos em matrinxã, Brycon amazonicus, por meio da técnica de inoculação de leveduras Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Na aquicultura são utilizados análises da ativação e incremento da migração de macrófagos, com intuito de verificar a capacidade imunológica inespecífica dos peixes frente a um desafio. Neste sentido, o objetivo deste estudo foi determinar o tempo de migração de monócitos/macrófagos para a cavidade peritoneal em matrinxã, Brycon amazonicus, por meio da técnica de inoculação de leveduras Saccharomyces cerevisiae, e verificar as possíveis alterações dos parâmetros hematológicos após o estímulo. Foram utilizados 30 matrinxãs com peso médio de 101,55 ± 24,50 g e comprimento médio de 19,75 ± 1,72 cm. Os tempos de inoculação utilizados foram 2, 4, 8 e 12 horas, sendo utilizados 6 animais por tempo. Após os períodos de incubação (2, 4, 8 e 12 horas), os exemplares foram anestesiados e alíquotas de sangue foram coletadas por punção do vaso caudal, para a análise: número total de células, contagem diferencial e total dos leucócitos e contagem total de trombócitos, hematócrito, taxa de hemoglobina e índices hematimétricos (VCM, HCM e CHCM). Os resultados mostram que a capacidade fagocítica do macrófago não apresentou diferenças significativas entre os tempos experimentais. Com relação ao índice fagocítico, o tempo de 2 horas representa o tempo em que os macrófagos fagocitaram maior número de leveduras com diferenças significativas em relação aos outros tempos experimentais, indicando que este tempo (2 horas) de incubação foi suficiente para a migração e ativação máxima dos macrófagos da cavidade peritoneal, da espécie estudada. Os valores do número de eritrócitos apresentaram diferenças entre os tempos de incubação. Entretanto, os valores dos outros parâmetros hematológicos não apresentaram diferenças significativas.

Caracterização molecular de isolados de Flavobacterium columnare de tilapia do nilo e piracanjuba por meio de RAPD-PCR

Flavobacterium columnare is a cosmopolite bacteria and it is one of the main problem in Brazilian aquaculture, causing high mortalities index and economic damage. The main factors that contribute to columnaris disease are inadequate water quality, excess handling, high density of fish and temperature variations. For a successful epidemiological study and disease control, it is essential to differentiate the F. columnare from other yellow pigmentation bacteria. The present study used molecular techniques to characterize, by RAPD-PCR, two strains of F. columnare isolated from Oreochromis niloticus and Brycon orbignyanus. Data were analyzed as binary (0 and 1) and a genetic similarity matrix was generated by Jaccard's coefficient. Cluster analysis was performed by the neighbor joining method. The RAPD-PCR technique confirmed to be a usefull tool to obtain genetic profiles from F. columnare isolates based on the oligonucleotides used and to verify genetic similarity.