Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

The political and economic context of Keynes’s 1933 Finlay lecture: transforming a business practitioner’s ways of knowing

This thesis is structured in the format of a three part Portfolio of Exploration to facilitate transformation in my ways of knowing to enhance an experienced business practitioner’s capabilities and effectiveness. A key factor in my ways of knowing, as opposed to what I know, is my exploration of context and assumptions. By interacting with my cultural, intellectual, economic, and social history, I seek to become critically aware of the biographical, historical, and cultural context of my beliefs and feelings about myself. This Portfolio is not exclusively for historians of economics or historians of ideas but also for those interested in becoming more aware of how these culturally assimilated frames of reference and bundles of assumptions that influence the way they perceive, think, decide, feel and interpret their experiences in order to operate more effectively in their professional and organisational lives. In the first part of my Portfolio, I outline and reflect upon my Portfolio’s overarching theory of adult development; the writings of Harvard’s Robert Kegan and Columbia University’s Jack Mezirow. The second part delves further into how meaning-making, the activity of how one organises and makes sense of the world and how meaning-making evolves to different levels of complexity. I explore how past experience and our interpretations of history influences our understandings since all perception is inevitably tinged with bias and entrenched ‘theory-laden’ assumptions. In my third part, I explore the 1933 inaugural University College Dublin Finlay Lecture delivered by economist John Maynard Keynes. My findings provide a new perspective and understanding of Keynes’s 1933 lecture by not solely reading or relying upon the text of the three contextualised essay versions of his lecture. The purpose and context of Keynes’s original longer lecture version was quite different to the three shorter essay versions published for the American, British and German audiences.

Exploring an agent as an economic insider threat solution

The insider threat is a security problem that is well-known and has a long history, yet it still remains an invisible enemy. Insiders know the security processes and have accesses that allow them to easily cover their tracks. In recent years the idea of monitoring separately for these threats has come into its own. However, the tools currently in use have disadvantages and one of the most effective techniques of human review is costly. This paper explores the development of an intelligent agent that uses already in-place computing material for inference as an inexpensive monitoring tool for insider threats. Design Science Research (DSR) is a methodology used to explore and develop an IT artifact, such as for this intelligent agent research. This methodology allows for a structure that can guide a deep search method for problems that may not be possible to solve or could add to a phenomenological instantiation.

Depression and 'crises of meaninglessness' in the political-economic theology of the money-God

The thesis starts with a historical analysis of the development of depression as a concept. Through this inquiry, the controversies behind the apparent consensus about depression’s etiology and treatment are illuminated, suggesting that the understanding of the climbing rates of depression in contemporary Western civilization is still up for grabs. That’s what the thesis sets out to investigate. In order to accomplish this aim, the study builds upon the classical accounts of Georg Simmel, Émile Durkheim and the more contemporary ideas of Dany-Robert Dufour, in dialogue with an array of supplementary theoretical sources. Navigating through this ‘sea’ of extraordinary and different theories, a new avenue of reflections arises, contributing for the sophistication of the questions made about the phenomenon of depression’s rates. The fundamental argument emerging from this theoretical undertaking is that ‘crises of meaninglessness’ that pervade the collective body of Western contemporary societies have, as one of its consequences, the expansion of depression rates. Meaninglessness in contemporary times is the primary object of investigation of the thesis. The concept, in the context of this study, is not understood as merely an effect of the historical decline of shared social norms due to processes of individualization. Rather, it is claimed, it originates from and is reinforced by the ‘political-economic theology of neo-liberalism’ which becomes virtually generalized in the West, erecting money as a God. The study concludes that by undermining culturally established values, ideals, institutions and principles that may block the dissemination of commodities this new transcendence has been challenging the task of signifying life, potentializing – among other subjective difficulties – the diffusion of depression.

The Entrepreneurial Facets as Precursor to Vietnam’s Economic Renovation in 1986

In this research, we aim to develop a conceptual framework to assess the entrepreneurial properties of the Vietnamese reform, known as Doi Moi, even before the kickoff of Doi Moi policy itself. We argued that unlike many other scholars’ assertion, economic crisis and harsh realities were neither necessary nor sufficient conditions for the reform to take place, but the entrepreurial elements and undertaking were, at least for case of Vietnam’s reform. Entrepreneurial process on the one hand sought for structural changes, kicked off innovation, and on the other its induced outcome further invited changes and associated opportunities. The paper also concludes that an assessment of possibility for the next stage of Doi Moi in should take into account the entrepreneurial factors of the economy, and by predicting the emergence of new entrepreneurial facets in the next phase of economic development.

The Islamic commercial crisis: Institutional roots of economic underdevelopment in the Middle East

During the second millennium, the Middle East's commerce with Western Europe fell increasingly under European domination. Two factors played critical roles. First, the Islamic inheritance system, by raising the costs of dissolving a partnership following a partner's death, kept Middle Eastern commercial enterprises small and ephemeral. Second, certain European inheritance systems facilitated large and durable partnerships by reducing the likelihood of premature dissolution. The upshot is that European enterprises grew larger than those of the Islamic world. Moreover, while ever larger enterprises propelled further organizational transformations in Europe, persistently small enterprises inhibited economic modernization in the Middle East.

Structure maps for hcp metals from first-principles calculations

The ability to predict the existence and crystal type of ordered structures of materials from their components is a major challenge of current materials research. Empirical methods use experimental data to construct structure maps and make predictions based on clustering of simple physical parameters. Their usefulness depends on the availability of reliable data over the entire parameter space. Recent development of high-throughput methods opens the possibility to enhance these empirical structure maps by ab initio calculations in regions of the parameter space where the experimental evidence is lacking or not well characterized. In this paper we construct enhanced maps for the binary alloys of hcp metals, where the experimental data leaves large regions of poorly characterized systems believed to be phase separating. In these enhanced maps, the clusters of noncompound-forming systems are much smaller than indicated by the empirical results alone. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

The environmental justice dimensions of climate change

Nations around the world are considering strategies to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change predicted to occur in the twenty-first century. Many countries, however, lack the wealth, technology, and government institutions to effectively cope with climate change. This study investigates the varying degrees to which developing and developed nations will be exposed to changes in three key variables: temperature, precipitation, and runoff. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis to compare current and future climate model predictions on a country level. We then compare our calculations of climate change exposure for each nation to several metrics of political and economic well-being. Our results indicate that the impacts of changes in precipitation and runoff are distributed relatively equally between developed and developing nations. In contrast, we confirm research suggesting that developing nations will be affected far more severely by changes in temperature than developed nations. Our results also suggest that this unequal impact will persist throughout the twenty-first century. Our analysis further indicates that the most significant temperature changes will occur in politically unstable countries, creating an additional motivation for developed countries to actively engage with developing nations on climate mitigation strategies. © 2011, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

Impact of economic, regulatory, and patent policies on innovation in cancer chemoprevention.

Chemoprevention agents are an emerging new scientific area that holds out the promise of delaying or avoiding a number of common cancers. These new agents face significant scientific, regulatory, and economic barriers, however, which have limited investment in their research and development (R&D). These barriers include above-average clinical trial scales, lengthy time frames between discovery and Food and Drug Administration approval, liability risks (because they are given to healthy individuals), and a growing funding gap for early-stage candidates. The longer time frames and risks associated with chemoprevention also cause exclusivity time on core patents to be limited or subject to significant uncertainties. We conclude that chemoprevention uniquely challenges the structure of incentives embodied in the economic, regulatory, and patent policies for the biopharmaceutical industry. Many of these policy issues are illustrated by the recently Food and Drug Administration-approved preventive agents Gardasil and raloxifene. Our recommendations to increase R&D investment in chemoprevention agents include (a) increased data exclusivity times on new biological and chemical drugs to compensate for longer gestation periods and increasing R&D costs; chemoprevention is at the far end of the distribution in this regard; (b) policies such as early-stage research grants and clinical development tax credits targeted specifically to chemoprevention agents (these are policies that have been very successful in increasing R&D investment for orphan drugs); and (c) a no-fault liability insurance program like that currently in place for children's vaccines.

Socio-economic status and malaria-related outcomes in Mvomero District, Tanzania.

While policies often target malaria prevention and treatment - proximal causes of malaria and related health outcomes - too little attention has been given to the role of household- and individual-level socio-economic status (SES) as a fundamental cause of disease risk in developing countries. This paper presents a conceptual model outlining ways in which SES may influence malaria-related outcomes. Building on this conceptual model, we use household data from rural Mvomero, Tanzania, to examine empirical relationships among multiple measures of household and individual SES and demographics, on the one hand, and malaria prevention, illness, and diagnosis and treatment behaviours, on the other. We find that access to prevention and treatment is significantly associated with indicators of households' wealth; education-based disparities do not emerge in this context. Meanwhile, reported malaria illness shows a stronger association with demographic variables than with SES (controlling for prevention). Greater understanding of the mechanisms through which SES and malaria policies interact to influence disease risk can help to reduce health disparities and reduce the malaria burden in an equitable manner.

Physical and economic potential of geological CO2 storage in saline aquifers.

Carbon sequestration in sandstone saline reservoirs holds great potential for mitigating climate change, but its storage potential and cost per ton of avoided CO2 emissions are uncertain. We develop a general model to determine the maximum theoretical constraints on both storage potential and injection rate and use it to characterize the economic viability of geosequestration in sandstone saline aquifers. When applied to a representative set of aquifer characteristics, the model yields results that compare favorably with pilot projects currently underway. Over a range of reservoir properties, maximum effective storage peaks at an optimal depth of 1600 m, at which point 0.18-0.31 metric tons can be stored per cubic meter of bulk volume of reservoir. Maximum modeled injection rates predict minima for storage costs in a typical basin in the range of $2-7/ ton CO2 (2005 U.S.$) depending on depth and basin characteristics in our base-case scenario. Because the properties of natural reservoirs in the United States vary substantially, storage costs could in some cases be lower or higher by orders of magnitude. We conclude that available geosequestration capacity exhibits a wide range of technological and economic attractiveness. Like traditional projects in the extractive industries, geosequestration capacity should be exploited starting with the low-cost storage options first then moving gradually up the supply curve.

Economic return of clinical trials performed under the pediatric exclusivity program.

CONTEXT: In 1997, Congress authorized the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to grant 6-month extensions of marketing rights through the Pediatric Exclusivity Program if industry sponsors complete FDA-requested pediatric trials. The program has been praised for creating incentives for studies in children and has been criticized as a "windfall" to the innovator drug industry. This critique has been a substantial part of congressional debate on the program, which is due to expire in 2007. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic return to industry for completing pediatric exclusivity trials. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cohort study of programs conducted for pediatric exclusivity. Nine drugs that were granted pediatric exclusivity were selected. From the final study reports submitted to the FDA (2002-2004), key elements of the clinical trial design and study operations were obtained, and the cost of performing each study was estimated and converted into estimates of after-tax cash outflows. Three-year market sales were obtained and converted into estimates of after-tax cash inflows based on 6 months of additional market protection. Net economic return (cash inflows minus outflows) and net return-to-costs ratio (net economic return divided by cash outflows) for each product were then calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Net economic return and net return-to-cost ratio. RESULTS: The indications studied reflect a broad representation of the program: asthma, tumors, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, hypertension, depression/generalized anxiety disorder, diabetes mellitus, gastroesophageal reflux, bacterial infection, and bone mineralization. The distribution of net economic return for 6 months of exclusivity varied substantially among products (net economic return ranged from -$8.9 million to $507.9 million and net return-to-cost ratio ranged from -0.68 to 73.63). CONCLUSIONS: The economic return for pediatric exclusivity is variable. As an incentive to complete much-needed clinical trials in children, pediatric exclusivity can generate lucrative returns or produce more modest returns on investment.