10 resultados para Economic calculations

em CaltechTHESIS


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Hartree-Fock (HF) calculations have had remarkable success in describing large nuclei at high spin, temperature and deformation. To allow full range of possible deformations, the Skyrme HF equations can be discretized on a three-dimensional mesh. However, such calculations are currently limited by the computational resources provided by traditional supercomputers. To take advantage of recent developments in massively parallel computing technology, we have implemented the LLNL Skyrme-force static and rotational HF codes on Intel's DELTA and GAMMA systems at Caltech.

We decomposed the HF code by assigning a portion of the mesh to each node, with nearest neighbor meshes assigned to nodes connected by communication· channels. This kind of decomposition is well-suited for the DELTA and the GAMMA architecture because the only non-local operations are wave function orthogonalization and the boundary conditions of the Poisson equation for the Coulomb field.

Our first application of the HF code on parallel computers has been the study of identical superdeformed (SD) rotational bands in the Hg region. In the last ten years, many SD rotational bands have been found experimentally. One very surprising feature found in these SD rotational bands is that many pairs of bands in nuclei that differ by one or two mass units have nearly identical deexcitation gamma-ray energies. Our calculations of the five rotational bands in ^(192)Hg and ^(194)Pb show that the filling of specific orbitals can lead to bands with deexcitation gamma-ray energies differing by at most 2 keV in nuclei differing by two mass units and over a range of angular momenta comparable to that observed experimentally. Our calculations of SD rotational bands in the Dy region also show that twinning can be achieved by filling or emptying some specific orbitals.

The interpretation of future precise experiments on atomic parity nonconservation (PNC) in terms of parameters of the Standard Model could be hampered by uncertainties in the atomic and nuclear structure. As a further application of the massively parallel HF calculations, we calculated the proton and neutron densities of the Cesium isotopes from A = 125 to A = 139. Based on our good agreement with experimental charge radii, binding energies, and ground state spins, we conclude that the uncertainties in the ratios of weak charges are less than 10^(-3), comfortably smaller than the anticipated experimental error.

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The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

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Over the past decade, scholarly interest concerning the use of limitations to constrain government spending and taxing has noticeably increased. The call for constitutional restrictions can be credited, in part, to Washington's apparent inability to legislate any significant reductions in government expenditures or in the size of the national debt. At the present time, the federal government is far from instituting any constitutional limitations on spending or borrowing; however, the states have incorporated many controls on revenues and expenditures, the oldest being strictures on full faith and credit borrowing. This dissertations examines the efficacy of these restrictions on borrowing across the states (excluding Alaska) for the period dating from 1961 to 1990 and also studies the limitations on taxing and spending synonymous with the Tax Revolt.

We include socio-economic information in our calculations to control for factors other than the institutional variables that affect state borrowing levels. Our results show that certain constitutional restrictions (in particular, the referendum requirement and the dollar debt limit) are more effective than others. The apparent ineffectiveness of other limitations, such as the flexible debt limit, seem related to the bindingness of the limitations in at least half of the cases. Other variables, such as crime rates, number of schoolage children, and state personal income do affect the levels of full faith and credit debt, but not as strongly as the limitations. While some degree of circumvention can be detected (the amount of full faith and credit debt does inversely affect the levels of nonguaranteed debt), it is so small when compared to the effectiveness of the constitutional restrictions that it is almost negligible. The examination of the tax revolt era limitations yielded quite similar conclusions, with the additional fact that constitutional restrictions appear more binding than statutory ones. Our research demonstrates that constitutional limitations on borrowing can be applied effectively to constrain excessive borrowing, but caution must be used. The efficacy of these restrictions decrease dramatically as the number of loopholes increase.

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In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

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Chapter I

Theories for organic donor-acceptor (DA) complexes in solution and in the solid state are reviewed, and compared with the available experimental data. As shown by McConnell et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S., 53, 46-50 (1965)), the DA crystals fall into two classes, the holoionic class with a fully or almost fully ionic ground state, and the nonionic class with little or no ionic character. If the total lattice binding energy 2ε1 (per DA pair) gained in ionizing a DA lattice exceeds the cost 2εo of ionizing each DA pair, ε1 + εo less than 0, then the lattice is holoionic. The charge-transfer (CT) band in crystals and in solution can be explained, following Mulliken, by a second-order mixing of states, or by any theory that makes the CT transition strongly allowed, and yet due to a small change in the ground state of the non-interacting components D and A (or D+ and A-). The magnetic properties of the DA crystals are discussed.

Chapter II

A computer program, EWALD, was written to calculate by the Ewald fast-convergence method the crystal Coulomb binding energy EC due to classical monopole-monopole interactions for crystals of any symmetry. The precision of EC values obtained is high: the uncertainties, estimated by the effect on EC of changing the Ewald convergence parameter η, ranged from ± 0.00002 eV to ± 0.01 eV in the worst case. The charge distribution for organic ions was idealized as fractional point charges localized at the crystallographic atomic positions: these charges were chosen from available theoretical and experimental estimates. The uncertainty in EC due to different charge distribution models is typically ± 0.1 eV (± 3%): thus, even the simple Hückel model can give decent results.

EC for Wurster's Blue Perchl orate is -4.1 eV/molecule: the crystal is stable under the binding provided by direct Coulomb interactions. EC for N-Methylphenazinium Tetracyanoquino- dimethanide is 0.1 eV: exchange Coulomb interactions, which cannot be estimated classically, must provide the necessary binding.

EWALD was also used to test the McConnell classification of DA crystals. For the holoionic (1:1)-(N,N,N',N'-Tetramethyl-para- phenylenediamine: 7,7,8,8-Tetracyanoquinodimethan) EC = -4.0 eV while 2εo = 4.65 eV: clearly, exchange forces must provide the balance. For the holoionic (1:1)-(N,N,N',N'-Tetramethyl-para- phenylenediamine:para-Chloranil) EC = -4.4 eV, while 2εo = 5.0 eV: again EC falls short of 2ε1. As a Gedankenexperiment, two nonionic crystals were assumed to be ionized: for (1:1)-(Hexamethyl- benzene:para-Chloranil) EC = -4.5 eV, 2εo = 6.6 eV; for (1:1)- (Napthalene:Tetracyanoethylene) EC = -4.3 eV, 2εo = 6.5 eV. Thus, exchange energies in these nonionic crystals must not exceed 1 eV.

Chapter III

A rapid-convergence quantum-mechanical formalism is derived to calculate the electronic energy of an arbitrary molecular (or molecular-ion) crystal: this provides estimates of crystal binding energies which include the exchange Coulomb inter- actions. Previously obtained LCAO-MO wavefunctions for the isolated molecule(s) ("unit cell spin-orbitals") provide the starting-point. Bloch's theorem is used to construct "crystal spin-orbitals". Overlap between the unit cell orbitals localized in different unit cells is neglected, or is eliminated by Löwdin orthogonalization. Then simple formulas for the total kinetic energy Q^(XT)_λ, nuclear attraction [λ/λ]XT, direct Coulomb [λλ/λ'λ']XT and exchange Coulomb [λλ'/λ'λ]XT integrals are obtained, and direct-space brute-force expansions in atomic wavefunctions are given. Fourier series are obtained for [λ/λ]XT, [λλ/λ'λ']XT, and [λλ/λ'λ]XT with the help of the convolution theorem; the Fourier coefficients require the evaluation of Silverstone's two-center Fourier transform integrals. If the short-range interactions are calculated by brute-force integrations in direct space, and the long-range effects are summed in Fourier space, then rapid convergence is possible for [λ/λ]XT, [λλ/λ'λ']XT and [λλ'/λ'λ]XT. This is achieved, as in the Ewald method, by modifying each atomic wavefunction by a "Gaussian convergence acceleration factor", and evaluating separately in direct and in Fourier space appropriate portions of [λ/λ]XT, etc., where some of the portions contain the Gaussian factor.

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An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NOx), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO2), and mid-day ozone, (O3), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NOx) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NOx) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NOx (minimum NOx program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO2, (concentrations assumed proportional to NOx emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NOx control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NOx emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O3 and 10 NO2 violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O3 and 3 NO2 violations per year (minimum NO2 program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

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I. Trimesic acid (1, 3, 5-benzenetricarboxylic acid) crystallizes with a monoclinic unit cell of dimensions a = 26.52 A, b = 16.42 A, c = 26.55 A, and β = 91.53° with 48 molecules /unit cell. Extinctions indicated a space group of Cc or C2/c; a satisfactory structure was obtained in the latter with 6 molecules/asymmetric unit - C54O36H36 with a formula weight of 1261 g. Of approximately 12,000 independent reflections within the CuKα sphere, intensities of 11,563 were recorded visually from equi-inclination Weissenberg photographs.

The structure was solved by packing considerations aided by molecular transforms and two- and three-dimensional Patterson functions. Hydrogen positions were found on difference maps. A total of 978 parameters were refined by least squares; these included hydrogen parameters and anisotropic temperature factors for the C and O atoms. The final R factor was 0.0675; the final "goodness of fit" was 1.49. All calculations were carried out on the Caltech IBM 7040-7094 computer using the CRYRM Crystallographic Computing System.

The six independent molecules fall into two groups of three nearly parallel molecules. All molecules are connected by carboxylto- carboxyl hydrogen bond pairs to form a continuous array of sixmolecule rings with a chicken-wire appearance. These arrays bend to assume two orientations, forming pleated sheets. Arrays in different orientations interpenetrate - three molecules in one orientation passing through the holes of three parallel arrays in the alternate orientation - to produce a completely interlocking network. One third of the carboxyl hydrogen atoms were found to be disordered.

II. Optical transforms as related to x-ray diffraction patterns are discussed with reference to the theory of Fraunhofer diffraction.

The use of a systems approach in crystallographic computing is discussed with special emphasis on the way in which this has been done at the California Institute of Technology.

An efficient manner of calculating Fourier and Patterson maps on a digital computer is presented. Expressions for the calculation of to-scale maps for standard sections and for general-plane sections are developed; space-group-specific expressions in a form suitable for computers are given for all space groups except the hexagonal ones.

Expressions for the calculation of settings for an Eulerian-cradle diffractometer are developed for both the general triclinic case and the orthogonal case.

Photographic materials on pp. 4, 6, 10, and 20 are essential and will not reproduce clearly on Xerox copies. Photographic copies should be ordered.

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The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the effect on performance and chamber temperature of adding hydrogen to a propellant system. The systems investigated are:

(1) RFNA-Aniline

(2) Nitromethane

(3) Anhydrous hydrazene-liquid oxygen

Since a systematic investigation of the performance parameters of the RFNA-Aniline system over a wide range of mixture ratios has never been made, it was decided to make these calculations, in addition to the investigations stated above.

The results of the calculations can best be summarized by a study of the figures at the end of the thesis. A few generalizations can be made. The effect of adding hydrogen in small quantities to a high temperature system is to increase the performance considerably without too much change in the chamber temperature. As more hydrogen is added, the percentage increase in performance. If hydrogen is added in large quantities, both the performance curve (effective exhaust velocity) and the chamber temperature curve flatten out.

The behavior discussed above is characteristic of hot propellant systems such as RFNA-Aniline and anhydrous hydrazene. In a low temperature system, such as nitromethane, the effect is quite different. The addition of hydrogen in small quantities causes a rapid decrease in chamber temperature, but the increase in performance is considerably less on a percentage basis. As more hydrogen is added the changes in performance and chamber temperature are almost linear.

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Part 1. Many interesting visual and mechanical phenomena occur in the critical region of fluids, both for the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid transitions. The precise thermodynamic and transport behavior here has some broad consequences for the molecular theory of liquids. Previous studies in this laboratory on a liquid-liquid critical mixture via ultrasonics supported a basically classical analysis of fluid behavior by M. Fixman (e. g., the free energy is assumed analytic in intensive variables in the thermodynamics)--at least when the fluid is not too close to critical. A breakdown in classical concepts is evidenced close to critical, in some well-defined ways. We have studied herein a liquid-liquid critical system of complementary nature (possessing a lower critical mixing or consolute temperature) to all previous mixtures, to look for new qualitative critical behavior. We did not find such new behavior in the ultrasonic absorption ascribable to the critical fluctuations, but we did find extra absorption due to chemical processes (yet these are related to the mixing behavior generating the lower consolute point). We rederived, corrected, and extended Fixman's analysis to interpret our experimental results in these more complex circumstances. The entire account of theory and experiment is prefaced by an extensive introduction recounting the general status of liquid state theory. The introduction provides a context for our present work, and also points out problems deserving attention. Interest in these problems was stimulated by this work but also by work in Part 3.

Part 2. Among variational theories of electronic structure, the Hartree-Fock theory has proved particularly valuable for a practical understanding of such properties as chemical binding, electric multipole moments, and X-ray scattering intensity. It also provides the most tractable method of calculating first-order properties under external or internal one-electron perturbations, either developed explicitly in orders of perturbation theory or in the fully self-consistent method. The accuracy and consistency of first-order properties are poorer than those of zero-order properties, but this is most often due to the use of explicit approximations in solving the perturbed equations, or to inadequacy of the variational basis in size or composition. We have calculated the electric polarizabilities of H2, He, Li, Be, LiH, and N2 by Hartree-Fock theory, using exact perturbation theory or the fully self-consistent method, as dictated by convenience. By careful studies on total basis set composition, we obtained good approximations to limiting Hartree-Fock values of polarizabilities with bases of reasonable size. The values for all species, and for each direction in the molecular cases, are within 8% of experiment, or of best theoretical values in the absence of the former. Our results support the use of unadorned Hartree-Pock theory for static polarizabilities needed in interpreting electron-molecule scattering data, collision-induced light scattering experiments, and other phenomena involving experimentally inaccessible polarizabilities.

Part 3. Numerical integration of the close-coupled scattering equations has been carried out to obtain vibrational transition probabilities for some models of the electronically adiabatic H2-H2 collision. All the models use a Lennard-Jones interaction potential between nearest atoms in the collision partners. We have analyzed the results for some insight into the vibrational excitation process in its dependence on the energy of collision, the nature of the vibrational binding potential, and other factors. We conclude also that replacement of earlier, simpler models of the interaction potential by the Lennard-Jones form adds very little realism for all the complication it introduces. A brief introduction precedes the presentation of our work and places it in the context of attempts to understand the collisional activation process in chemical reactions as well as some other chemical dynamics.