Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Time-Resolved Ultra–High Resolution Optical Coherence Tomography for Real-Time Monitoring of Selective Retina Therapy

Purpose: Selective retina therapy (SRT) is a novel treatment for retinal pathologies, solely targeting the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). During SRT, the detection of an immediate tissue reaction is challenging as tissue effects remain limited to intracellular RPE photodisruption. Time-resolved ultra-high axial resolution optical coherence tomography (OCT) is thus evaluated for the monitoring of dynamic optical changes at and around the RPE during SRT. Methods: An experimental OCT system with an ultra-high axial resolution of 1.78 µm was combined with an SRT system and time-resolved OCT M-scans of the target area were recorded from four patients undergoing SRT. OCT scans were analyzed and OCT morphology was correlated with findings in fluorescein angiography, fundus photography and cross-sectional OCT. Results: In cases where the irradiation caused RPE damage proven by fluorescein angiography, the lesions were well discernible in time-resolved OCT images but remained invisible in fundus photography and cross-sectional OCT acquired after treatment. If RPE damage was introduced, all applied SRT pulses led to detectable signal changes in the time-resolved OCT images. The extent of optical signal variation seen in the OCT data appeared to scale with the applied SRT pulse energy. Conclusion: The first clinical results proved that successful SRT irradiation induces detectable changes in the OCT M-scan signal while it remains invisible in conventional ophthalmoscopic imaging. Thus, real-time high-resolution OCT is a promising modality to monitor and analyze tissue effects introduced by selective retina therapy and may be used to guide SRT in an automatic feedback mode.

Training Module for ALS Moderators: Report on conceptual and methodological aspects of the first workshop in Pemba Metuge, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, April 2005

Report on conceptual and methodological aspects of the first workshop for training moderators and trainers in ALS and sustainable management of natural resources, in Pemba Metuge, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, April 2005.

What does professionalization mean? Developing a conceptual framework of professionalization in sports federations

Professionalization seems to be an appropriate strategy for sports organizations to meet organizational pressure due to challenges of a more complex and dynamic changing environment (e.g. Shilbury & Ferkins, 2011). However, despite the increasing number of studies attempting to disclose professionalization in sports organizations, it still remains unclear, what the term professionalization actually mean, and which aspects a suitable concept of professionalization for studying the phenomena should consist in (Dowling et al., 2014). To bridge this gap, we firstly display scholars’ perspective of professionalization in sports organizations in order to explore the common ground as well as divergences in previous approaches. We will then consider practical views of Swiss experts to gain valuable insight, as pointed out by Slack (2014), into current thinking and acting towards professionalization in sports federations in Switzerland. In semi-structured interviews, we asked six experts, who accompany the professionalization processes of Swiss national sports federations, about their subjective understanding of professionalization, and its characteristics. The interviews were analyzed applying hermeneutic approach to systematically reconstruct the observed characteristics of professionalization resulting in three main topics: (1) changed management philosophy, (2) specialization and functional differentiation, and (3) management tools. Based on the literature review as well as insights from the Swiss experts, we will provide a synthesis of crucial aspects for developing a conceptual framework of professionalization that can be useful for further studies. References Dowling, M., Edwards, J., & Washington, M. (2014). Understanding the concept of professionalisation in sport management research. Sport Management Review, 17, 520-529. Shilbury, D., & Ferkins, L. (2011). Professionalisation, sport governance and strategic capability. Managing Leisure, 16, 108-127. Slack, T. (2014). The social and commercial impact of sport, the role of sport management. European Sport Management Quarterly, 14, 454–463.

Does a reference to evaluations contribute to discourse quality? The case of Swiss direct-democratic campaigns on school policy: a conceptual framework

This article examines how references to evaluations in school policy debates contribute to discourse quality. The article consists of two parts: First, it presents a descriptive overview of the references to evidence in direct-democratic campaigns. These results are based on a quantitative content analysis of the newspaper coverage and governmental information documents of 103 direct-democratic Swiss school policy votes. In a second step, it discusses these findings in view of the question of whether the incorporation of evaluation results in policy debates contributes to discourse quality. It presents a conceptual framework, including hypotheses and a research design to answer this question.

Quantitative Analysis of Mouse Retinal Layers Using Automated Segmentation of Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography Images.

PURPOSE Quantification of retinal layers using automated segmentation of optical coherence tomography (OCT) images allows for longitudinal studies of retinal and neurological disorders in mice. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of automated retinal layer segmentation algorithms with data from manual segmentation in mice using the Spectralis OCT. METHODS Spectral domain OCT images from 55 mice from three different mouse strains were analyzed in total. The OCT scans from 22 C57Bl/6, 22 BALBc, and 11 C3A.Cg-Pde6b(+)Prph2(Rd2) /J mice were automatically segmented using three commercially available automated retinal segmentation algorithms and compared to manual segmentation. RESULTS Fully automated segmentation performed well in mice and showed coefficients of variation (CV) of below 5% for the total retinal volume. However, all three automated segmentation algorithms yielded much thicker total retinal thickness values compared to manual segmentation data (P < 0.0001) due to segmentation errors in the basement membrane. CONCLUSIONS Whereas the automated retinal segmentation algorithms performed well for the inner layers, the retinal pigmentation epithelium (RPE) was delineated within the sclera, leading to consistently thicker measurements of the photoreceptor layer and the total retina. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE The introduction of spectral domain OCT allows for accurate imaging of the mouse retina. Exact quantification of retinal layer thicknesses in mice is important to study layers of interest under various pathological conditions.

Coherence and Elicitability

The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible, are called elicitable. It is known that quantile-based risk measures such as value at risk are elicitable. In this paper, the existing result of the nonelicitability of expected shortfall is extended to all law-invariant spectral risk measures unless they reduce to minus the expected value. Hence, it is unclear how to perform forecast verification or comparison. However, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures does not reduce to minus the expected value. We show that it consists of certain expectiles.

Sustainable investment in land in the Global South: What would it require from a coherence perspective? The case of Sierra Leone

Large scale acquisitions of land in the Global South have signifi-cantly increased since the millennium. It is often the case that foreign investors are involved in such acquisitions, which are commonly aimed at facilitating the export of commodities. These investments in land tend to transform conventional, rather small scale agricultural systems into large scale, industrial agricultural systems. While investment in ag-riculture in the Global South is much needed, large-scale investments in land often goes hand-in-hand with environmental and human rights re-lated challenges. As a consequence, lawyers need to address questions of sovereignty over natural resources (this paper focuses in particular on land resources), to peoples’ right to self-determination, to the responsi-bilities of the home and host states of the investors, including public-private relationships, and the role of international institutions who are involved, as well as relevant jurisprudence. This paper approaches these questions from the perspective of a theory on policy coherence for sus-tainable development.

A new measure for party coherence: Applying a physics-based concept to the Swiss party system

The paper revives a theoretical definition of party coherence as being composed of two basic elements, cohesion and factionalism, to propose and apply a novel empirical measure based on spin physics. The simultaneous analysis of both components using a single measurement concept is applied to data representing the political beliefs of candidates in the Swiss general elections of 2003 and 2007, proposing a connection between the coherence of the beliefs party members hold and the assessment of parties being at risk of splitting. We also compare our measure with established polarization measures and demonstrate its advantage with respect to multi-dimensional data that lack clear structure. Furthermore, we outline how our analysis supports the distinction between bottom-up and top-down mechanisms of party splitting. In this way, we are able to turn the intuition of coherence into a defined quantitative concept that, additionally, offers a methodological basis for comparative research of party coherence. Our work serves as an example of how a complex systems approach allows to get a new perspective on a long-standing issue in political science.

Imaging of the Sclera in Patients with Scleritis and Episcleritis using Anterior Segment Optical Coherence Tomography

PURPOSE To evaluate the sclera and episclera in patients with scleritis and episcleritis using anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT). METHODS Cross-sectional prospective case series of 11 consecutive patients with episcleral or scleral inflammatory disease located anterior to the equator. The thickness of the ocular wall (sclera and the episclera) was measured using AS-OCT and compared to the contralateral healthy eye. RESULTS Eleven patients with a mean age of 49.5 years presented with symptomatic scleritis or episcleritis. The mean thickness of the ocular wall in the affected eye was 982 ± 56 μm compared to 790 ± 23 μm (p < 0.05) in the fellow eye. Enhanced-depth AS-OCT showed that the thickening occurred mainly in the episcleral layer in both scleritis and episcleritis. CONCLUSION Enhanced-depth AS-OCT may be a useful tool for imaging scleritis or episcleritis and may serve to monitor therapeutic success in these patients.

Probing the Structure, Pseudorotation, and Radial Vibrations of Cyclopentane by Femtosecond Rotational Raman Coherence Spectroscopy

Femtosecond time-resolved Raman rotational coherence spectroscopy (RCS) is employed to determine accurate rotational, vibration–rotation coupling constants, and centrifugal distortion constants of cyclopentane (C⁵H¹⁰). Its lowest-frequency vibration is a pseudorotating ring deformation that interconverts 10 permutationally distinct but energetically degenerate “twist” minima interspersed by 10 “bent” conformers. While the individual twist and bent structures are polar asymmetric tops, the pseudorotation is fast on the time scale of external rotation, rendering cyclopentane a fluxionally nonpolar symmetric top molecule. The pseudorotational level pattern corresponds to a one-dimensional internal rotor with a pseudorotation constant Bps ≈ 2.8 cm⁻¹. The pseudorotational levels are significantly populated up to l = ± 13 at 298 K; <10% of the molecules are in the l = 0 level. The next-higher vibration is the “radial” ν²³ ring deformation mode at 273 cm⁻¹, which is far above the pseudorotational fundamental. Femtosecond Raman RCS measurements were performed in a gas cell at T = 293 K and in a pulsed supersonic jet at T ≈ 90 K. The jet cooling reduces the pseudorotational distribution to l < ±8 and eliminates the population of ν²³, allowing one to determine the rotational constant as A0 = B0 = 6484.930(11) MHz. This value is ∼300 times more precise than the previous value. The fit of the RCS transients reveals that the rotation–pseudorotation coupling constant αe,psB = −0.00070(1) MHz is diminutive, implying that excitation of the pseudorotation has virtually no effect on the B0 rotational constant of cyclopentane. The smallness of αe,psB can be realized when comparing to the vibration–rotation coupling constant of the ν²³ vibration, αe,23B = −9.547(1) MHz, which is about 10⁴ times larger.

Rotational constants and structure of para-difluorobenzene determined by femtosecond Raman coherence spectroscopy: A new transient type

Femtosecond Raman rotational coherence spectroscopy (RCS) detected by degenerate four-wave mixing is a background-free method that allows to determine accurate gas-phase rotational constants of non-polar molecules. Raman RCS has so far mostly been applied to the regular coherence patterns of symmetric-top molecules, while its application to nonpolar asymmetric tops has been hampered by the large number of RCS transient types, the resulting variability of the RCS patterns, and the 10³–10⁴ times larger computational effort to simulate and fit rotational Raman RCS transients. We present the rotational Raman RCS spectra of the nonpolar asymmetric top 1,4-difluorobenzene (para-difluorobenzene, p-DFB) measured in a pulsed Ar supersonic jet and in a gas cell over delay times up to ~2.5 ns. p-DFB exhibits rotational Raman transitions with ΔJ = 0, 1, 2 and ΔK = 0, 2, leading to the observation of J −, K −, A −, and C–type transients, as well as a novel transient (S–type) that has not been characterized so far. The jet and gas cell RCS measurements were fully analyzed and yield the ground-state (v = 0) rotational constants Aₒ = 5637.68(20) MHz, Bₒ = 1428.23(37) MHz, and Cₒ = 1138.90(48) MHz (1σ uncertainties). Combining the Aₒ, Bₒ, and Cₒ constants with coupled-cluster with single-, double- and perturbatively corrected triple-excitation calculations using large basis sets allows to determine the semi-experimental equilibrium bond lengths rₑ(C₁–C₂) = 1.3849(4) Å, rₑ(C₂–C³) = 1.3917(4) Å, rₑ(C–F) = 1.3422(3) Å, and rₑ(C₂–H₂) = 1.0791(5) Å.