PokerMapper: : mapping executive functions, poker playing ability and responsible gambling in online environments

Research objectives Poker and responsible gambling both entail the use of the executive functions (EF), which are higher-level cognitive abilities. The main objective of this work was to assess if online poker players of different ability show different performances in their EF and if so, which functions are the most discriminating ones. The secondary objective was to assess if the EF performance can predict the quality of gambling, according to the Gambling Related Cognition Scale (GRCS), the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) and the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). Sample and methods The study design consisted of two stages: 46 Italian active players (41m, 5f; age 32±7,1ys; education 14,8±3ys) fulfilled the PGSI in a secure IT web system and uploaded their own hand history files, which were anonymized and then evaluated by two poker experts. 36 of these players (31m, 5f; age 33±7,3ys; education 15±3ys) accepted to take part in the second stage: the administration of an extensive neuropsychological test battery by a blinded trained professional. To answer the main research question we collected all final and intermediate scores of the EF tests on each player together with the scoring on the playing ability. To answer the secondary research question, we referred to GRCS, PGSI and SOGS scores.  We determined which variables that are good predictors of the playing ability score using statistical techniques able to deal with many regressors and few observations (LASSO, best subset algorithms and CART). In this context information criteria and cross-validation errors play a key role for the selection of the relevant regressors, while significance testing and goodness-of-fit measures can lead to wrong conclusions.   Preliminary findings We found significant predictors of the poker ability score in various tests. In particular, there are good predictors 1) in some Wisconsin Card Sorting Test items that measure flexibility in choosing strategy of problem-solving, strategic planning, modulating impulsive responding, goal setting and self-monitoring, 2) in those Cognitive Estimates Test variables related to deductive reasoning, problem solving, development of an appropriate strategy and self-monitoring, 3) in the Emotional Quotient Inventory Short (EQ-i:S) Stress Management score, composed by the Stress Tolerance and Impulse Control scores, and in the Interpersonal score (Empathy, Social Responsibility, Interpersonal Relationship). As for the quality of gambling, some EQ-i:S scales scores provide the best predictors: General Mood for the PGSI; Intrapersonal (Self-Regard; Emotional Self-Awareness, Assertiveness, Independence, Self-Actualization) and Adaptability  (Reality Testing, Flexibility, Problem Solving) for the SOGS, Adaptability for the GRCS. Implications for the field Through PokerMapper we gathered knowledge and evaluated the feasibility of the construction of short tasks/card games in online poker environments for profiling users’ executive functions. These card games will be part of an IT system able to dynamically profile EF and provide players with a feedback on their expected performance and ability to gamble responsibly in that particular moment. The implementation of such system in existing gambling platforms could lead to an effective proactive tool for supporting responsible gambling. 

Ink in His Veins: Editor in Chief Kevin Convey is bullish on the rough and tumble--and haiku--of tabloid newspapers

New York Daily News Editor in Chief Kevin Convey ’77 is bullish on tabloid newspapers—print and online.

Desenvolvimento de um protótipo de EIS(executive information system) que possibilita a integração dos níveis hierárquicos : o caso UCS

Este trabalho tem o objetivo de desenvolver e avaliar um Protótipo de um EIS (Executive Information System) que integre os níveis hierárquicos operacional, tático e estratégico, a fim de suprir e dar suporte, quanto a informações, a uma das Pró- Reitorias da Universidade de Caxias do Sul - UCS. Quer-se demonstrar não só a importância mas também a contribuição da integração, através do acesso e compartilhamento das informações, dos níveis hierárquicos, proporcionada pelo Protótipo, para a obtenção da eficiência e eficácia das atividades desenvolvidas na Pró-Reitoria em estudo. Através de revisão bibliográfica e de levantamentos efetuados por meio de questionários, elaborou-se o Protótipo EIS -UCS, o qual posteriormente foi avaliado através de dois protocolos, aplicados em momentos distintos, e também através da grade de análise do modelo conceitual de EIS. Os resultados obtidos demonstram o cumprimento do objetivo de desenvolver e avaliar o protótipo EIS-UCS. Os resultados apresentam o obtido em relação ao processo, ao sistema, ao conteúdo, a integração dos níveis hierárquicos e o aprendizado da organização e do pesquisador. Concluiu-se que o Protótipo EIS-UCS integra, através do acesso e compartilhamento das informações, os níveis hierárquicos e também supre e dá suporte, quanto ao nível de informações à Pró-Reitoria de Extensão e Relações Universitárias da Universidade de Caxias do Sul.

The executive toolbox: building legislative support in a multiparty presidential regime

How do presidents win legislative support under conditions of extreme multipartism? Comparative presidential research has offered two parallel answers, one relying on distributive politics and the other claiming that legislative success is a function of coalition formation. We merge these insights in an integrated approach to executive-legislative relations, also adding contextual factors related to dynamism and bargaining conditions. We find that the two presidential “tools” – pork and coalition goods – are substitutable resources, with pork functioning as a fine-tuning instrument that interacts reciprocally with legislative support. Pork expenditures also depend upon a president’s bargaining leverage and the distribution of legislative seats.

CEO overconfidence and the impact on M&A activity

What drives mergers and acquisitions decisions? Can an overconfidence bias affect decisions within the management team? This study complements recent work developed within the behavioral finance analyses of Mergers & Acquisitions and proposes the use of new variable to measure overconfidence. Using a sample of 8,895 takeover transactions completed by 993 CEOs in the United States – between 1992 and 2008 – it can be noticed that overconfident CEOs have 22% higher odds of engaging in corporate takeovers than rational CEOs.

Empresas com CEO/Chairman fundador apresentam retorno superior ao mercado?

Esse trabalho mostra que o retorno das ações de empresas que possuem como CEO ou Chairman o próprio fundador da empresa supera o retorno do S&P 500 no período de 1995 a 2011. É realizada também uma análise utilizando-se o Modelo de 4 Fatores de Fama-French e o resultado obtido indica que a carteira possui um retorno anualizado em excesso ajustado pelo risco de 5,79% com alta significância estatística e econômica. O trabalho também propõe mais duas análises: uma decomposição setorial da carteira, onde se verifica que o setor de tecnologia é o que mais contribui com o resultado acumulado da carteira; e um estudo sobre o múltiplo P/E (preço sobre lucro) da carteira, que surpreende ao mostrar que o P/E da carteira é sistematicamente superior ao P/E do S&P 500 no período analisado.

Board of directors and top management team: a study on CEO relative power and financial return

Best corporate governance practices published in the primers of Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission and the Brazilian Corporate Governance Institute promote board independence as much as possible, as a way to increase the effectiveness of governance mechanism (Sanzovo, 2010). Therefore, this paper aims at understanding if what the managerial literature portraits as being self-evident - stricter governance, better performance - can be observed in actual evidence. The question answered is: do companies with a stricter control and monitoring system perform better than others? The method applied in this paper consists on comparing 116 companies in respect to the their independence level between top management team and board directors– being that measured by four parameters, namely, the percentage of independent outsiders in the board, the separation of CEO and chairman, the adoption of contingent compensation and the percentage of institutional investors in the ownership structure – and their financial return measured in terms return on assets (ROA) from the latest Quarterly Earnings release of 2012. From the 534 companies listed in the Stock Exchange of Sao Paulo – Bovespa – 116 were selected due to their level of corporate governance. The title “Novo Mercado” refers to the superior level of governance level within companies listed in Bovespa, as they have to follow specific criteria to assure shareholders ´protection (BM&F, 2011). Regression analyses were conducted in order to reveal the correlation level between two selected variables. The results from the regression analysis were the following: the correlation between each parameter and ROA was 10.26%; the second regression analysis conducted measured the correlation between the independence level of top management team vis-à-vis board directors – namely, CEO relative power - and ROA, leading to a multiple R of 5.45%. Understanding that the scale is a simplification of the reality, the second part of the analysis transforms all the four parameters into dummy variables, excluding what could be called as an arbitrary scale. The ultimate result from this paper led to a multiple R of 28.44%, which implies that the combination of the variables are still not enough to translate the complex reality of organizations. Nonetheless, an important finding can be taken from this paper: two variables (percentage of outside directors and percentage of institutional investor ownership) are significant in the regression, with p-value lower than 10% and with negative coefficients. In other words, counter affirming what the literature very often portraits as being self-evident – stricter governance leads to higher performance – this paper has provided evidences to believe that the increase in the formal governance structure trough outside directors in the board and ownership by institutional investor might actually lead to worse performance. The section limitations and suggestions for future researches presents some reasons explaining why, although supported by strong theoretical background, this paper faced some challenging methodological assumptions, precluding categorical statements about the level of governance – measured by four selected parameters – and the financial return in terms of financial on assets.

Venda door-to-door na L'Oréal Brasil: por que a maior empresa de cosméticos do mundo não entra no canal da maior empresa de cosméticos no Brasil?

Por que a maior empresa de cosmético do mundo não entra no canal de vendas da maior empresa de cosméticos do Brasil? O trabalho a seguir tem o objetivo de analisar a L’Oréal Brasil e entender os motivos de ela não atuar no canal de vendas door-to-door, principal canal de vendas da Natura, a maior empresa de cosméticos do Brasil. Com base no método do Estudo do Caso, foram feitas 23 entrevistas tendo como amostra o corpo executivo da L’Oréal Brasil, bem como seu CEO. O estudo abrangeu diversas áreas da organização: marketing, suprimentos, fabricação, recursos humanos, vendas e logística. Com base na teoria da Lógica Dominante, notou-se que apesar de o canal de vendas door-to-door ser atrativo, existem diversas razões estratégicas/crenças que impedem que a L’Oréal entre no canal, são elas: a desconfiança no futuro do canal, a operação logística e o paradigma histórico da L’Oréal.

Powerful CEOs and their impact on corporate performance

We argue in this paper that executives can only impact firm outcomes if they have influence over crucial decisions. Based on this idea we develop and test a hypothesis about how CEOs’ power to influence decisions will affect firm performance: since managers’ opinions may differ, firms whose CEOs have more decision-making power should experience more variability in firm performance. Thus performance depends on the interaction between executive characteristics and organizational variables. By focusing on this interaction we are able to use firm-level characteristics to test predictions that are related to unobservable managerial characteristics. Using such firmlevel characteristics of the Executive Office we develop a proxy for the CEO’s power to influence decisions and provide evidence consistent with our hypothesis. Firm performance (measured by Tobin’s Q, stock returns and ROA) is significantly more variable for firms with greater values of our proxy for CEO influence power. The results are robust across various tests designed to detect differences in variability.

Efeito da eleição do candidato da oposição sobre a apresentação e aprovação de projetos do prefeito na Câmara

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o efeito de se eleger um candidato da oposição em eleições municipais sobre a apresentação e aprovação de projetos do prefeito então eleito na câmara de vereadores, no ano subsequente. Tal questão diz respeito à vantagem, para os munícipes, de optar pela alternância de poder em detrimento da reeleição, bem como à relação entre o novo representante do executivo e os vereadores. Dialoga-se, assim, com uma literatura político-eleitoral pródiga na análise dos fatores que favorecem a reeleição, mas que pouco se debruçou sobre as consequências futuras da alternância de poder. Igualmente, contribui-se com um embasamento econométrico para as discussões fomentadas a nível teórico a respeito das relações entre os poderes no município. A metodologia empregada se baseia na técnica de regressões descontínuas ou RDD para tratamento quase-experimental dos dados coletados no TSE e no Censo Legislativo de 2005. A partir da análise dos dados, e com significância moderada, argumenta-se que quando o prefeito eleito é da oposição ele tende a apresentar menos projetos à câmara em seu primeiro ano de mandato, mas recebe acolhida proporcionalmente mais favorável por parte dos vereadores.

The creative and advanced technology economy in Brazil: executive summary

This document brings together in a succinct form the available data about the current state of the Creative and Advanced Technology Economy of Brazil, presents some suggestions for public policies which can contribute to the development of technological and creative activities, and also points to issues to be studied and actions to be carried out in the future.