ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.

A study of information-seeking behavior and user perceptions of academic researchers

The purpose of this paper is to examine the information-seeking behavior of science and social science research scholars, including service effectiveness, satisfaction level on different type of sources and various methods adopted by the scholars for keeping up to dateData were gathered using a questionnaire survey of 200, randomly selected, PhD students of science and social science departments of four universities in Kerala, IndiaAlthough similarities exist between social science and science PhD students with regard to information-seeking behavior, there are significant differences as well. There is a significant difference between science and social science scholars on the perception of the adequacy of print journals and database collection which are very relevant to the research purposes. There is no significant difference between science and social science scholars on the perception of the adequacy of e-journals, the most used source for keeping up to date. The study proved that scholars of both the fields are dissatisfied with the effectiveness of the library in keeping them up to date with latest developments

Econometrics as an Academic Discipline in Higher Education: An Exploratory Study of the Need, Relevance and Significance

Econometrics is a young science. It developed during the twentieth century in the mid-1930’s, primarily after the World War II. Econometrics is the unification of statistical analysis, economic theory and mathematics. The history of econometrics can be traced to the use of statistical and mathematics analysis in economics. The most prominent contributions during the initial period can be seen in the works of Tinbergen and Frisch, and also that of Haavelmo in the 1940's through the mid 1950's. Right from the rudimentary application of statistics to economic data, like the use of laws of error through the development of least squares by Legendre, Laplace, and Gauss, the discipline of econometrics has later on witnessed the applied works done by Edge worth and Mitchell. A very significant mile stone in its evolution has been the work of Tinbergen, Frisch, and Haavelmo in their development of multiple regression and correlation analysis. They used these techniques to test different economic theories using time series data. In spite of the fact that some predictions based on econometric methodology might have gone wrong, the sound scientific nature of the discipline cannot be ignored by anyone. This is reflected in the economic rationale underlying any econometric model, statistical and mathematical reasoning for the various inferences drawn etc. The relevance of econometrics as an academic discipline assumes high significance in the above context. Because of the inter-disciplinary nature of econometrics (which is a unification of Economics, Statistics and Mathematics), the subject can be taught at all these broad areas, not-withstanding the fact that most often Economics students alone are offered this subject as those of other disciplines might not have adequate Economics background to understand the subject. In fact, even for technical courses (like Engineering), business management courses (like MBA), professional accountancy courses etc. econometrics is quite relevant. More relevant is the case of research students of various social sciences, commerce and management. In the ongoing scenario of globalization and economic deregulation, there is the need to give added thrust to the academic discipline of econometrics in higher education, across various social science streams, commerce, management, professional accountancy etc. Accordingly, the analytical ability of the students can be sharpened and their ability to look into the socio-economic problems with a mathematical approach can be improved, and enabling them to derive scientific inferences and solutions to such problems. The utmost significance of hands-own practical training on the use of computer-based econometric packages, especially at the post-graduate and research levels need to be pointed out here. Mere learning of the econometric methodology or the underlying theories alone would not have much practical utility for the students in their future career, whether in academics, industry, or in practice This paper seeks to trace the historical development of econometrics and study the current status of econometrics as an academic discipline in higher education. Besides, the paper looks into the problems faced by the teachers in teaching econometrics, and those of students in learning the subject including effective application of the methodology in real life situations. Accordingly, the paper offers some meaningful suggestions for effective teaching of econometrics in higher education

Emotional Intelligence As A Determinant Of Conflict Style Adoption Of Managers: A Theoretical Perspective

Successful management is dependent heavily on the manager’s ability to handle conflict effectively. The workforce has been increasingly becoming diversified vis-à-vis the gender, culture and ethnicity. The present work environment has in itself contributed to sowing seeds of conflict with greater diversity, hostility, complexity and newer business competencies in the work context.The classic study of Mintzberg’s Managerial roles approach (1973) also says that a manager has to spend sufficient time and energy in solving conflict as he has to take roles as a negotiator, and dispute handler. An understanding of the conflict and role that it plays in influencing employee behavior constructively or destructively is immense. Therefore conflict when left unmanaged can lead to diminished cohesiveness amongst employees, productivity and reduced organizational fitness. To manage conflict effective conflict resolution strategies that have constructive outcomes is called for. Conflict resolution style theorists opine that collaborative or integrative style, where there is high concern for task and people is considered to give positive individual and organizational outcomes, while the withdrawing /avoidance style and forcing / dominating style are considered to be ineffective in managing conflict. Though managers have typical preferences in the styles followed it need not necessarily be the typical response as it depends on the context, power relationships, emotions etc. The adoption of conflict styles of managers however is dependent on variables like gender orientation, cultural values, personality orientation, underlying relationships – public/private. The paper attempts to draw the importance of managing conflicts at workplace positively and the need for effective conflict resolution strategies. The conflict style adopted and the variables that affect the adoption of each style are discussed and possible interventions at the workplace are suggested

SHGs and Cooperatives in the Fishing Sector: An Inclusive Development Option for the Fisher folk of Kerala

The Kerala model of development mostly bypassed the fishing community, as the fishers form the main miserable groups with respect to many of the socio-economic and quality of life indicators. Modernization drive in the fishing sector paradoxically turns to marginalization drives as far as the traditional fishers in Kerala are concerned. Subsequent management and resource recuperation drives too seemed to be detrimental to the local fishing community. Though SHGs and cooperatives had helped in overcoming many of the maladies in most of the sectors in Kerala in terms of livelihood and employment in the 1980s, the fishing sector by that time had been moving ahead with mechanization and export euphoria and hence it bypassed the fishing sector. Though it has not helped the fishing sector in the initial stages, but because of necessity, it soon has become a vibrant livelihood and employment force in the coastal economy of Kerala. Initial success made it to link this with the governmental cooperative set up and soon SHGs and Cooperatives become reinforcing forces for the inclusive development of the real fishers.The fisheries sector in Kerala has undergone drastic changes with the advent of globalised economy. The traditional fisher folk are one of the most marginalized communities in the state and are left out of the overall development process mainly due to the marginalization of this community both in the sea and in the market due to modernization and mechanization of the sector. Mechanization opened up the sector a great deal as it began to attract people belonging to non-fishing community as moneylenders, boat owners, employers and middle men which often resulted in conflicts between traditional and mechanized fishermen. These factors, together with resource depletion resulted in the backwardness experienced by the traditional fishermen compared to other communities who were reaping the benefits of the overall development scenario.The studies detailing the activities and achievements of fisher folks via Self Help Groups (SHGs) and the cooperative movement in coastal Kerala are scant. The SHGs through cooperatives have been effective in livelihood security, poverty alleviation and inclusive development of the fisher folk (Rajasenan and Rajeev, 2012). The SHGs have a greater role to play as estimated fall in demand for marine products in international markets, which may result in reduction of employment opportunities in fish processing, peeling, etc. Also, technological advancement has made them unskilled to work in this sector making them outliers in the overall development process resulting in poor quality of physical and social infrastructure. Hence, it is all the more important to derive a strategy and best practice methods for the effective functioning of these SHGs so that the

Berufsanforderungen und flexible Altersgrenze

In 1973 the government of the Federal Republic plans to introduce a flexible retirement age. According to this new law, old age pensions can be paid already to people who are 63 years of age instead of 65 as at present. The government thus hopes to do more justice to the difference in capacity for work of elderly insured people and to the lact that the decline of life of humans depends to a certain extent on the occupational requirements demanded of them. Based on social science and medical research results this essay shows that the flexible retirement age cannot master these problems. The essay mentions in particular general relationships between age and work as well as special relationships between practised work, illness, disability and age. The bibliography includes literature connected with other aspects of the flexible retirement age.

Networks of PhD Students and Academic Performance: A Comparison across Countries

In this article we compare regression models obtained to predict PhD students’ academic performance in the universities of Girona (Spain) and Slovenia. Explanatory variables are characteristics of PhD student’s research group understood as an egocentered social network, background and attitudinal characteristics of the PhD students and some characteristics of the supervisors. Academic performance was measured by the weighted number of publications. Two web questionnaires were designed, one for PhD students and one for their supervisors and other research group members. Most of the variables were easily comparable across universities due to the careful translation procedure and pre-tests. When direct comparison was not possible we created comparable indicators. We used a regression model in which the country was introduced as a dummy coded variable including all possible interaction effects. The optimal transformations of the main and interaction variables are discussed. Some differences between Slovenian and Girona universities emerge. Some variables like supervisor’s performance and motivation for autonomy prior to starting the PhD have the same positive effect on the PhD student’s performance in both countries. On the other hand, variables like too close supervision by the supervisor and having children have a negative influence in both countries. However, we find differences between countries when we observe the motivation for research prior to starting the PhD which increases performance in Slovenia but not in Girona. As regards network variables, frequency of supervisor advice increases performance in Slovenia and decreases it in Girona. The negative effect in Girona could be explained by the fact that additional contacts of the PhD student with his/her supervisor might indicate a higher workload in addition to or instead of a better advice about the dissertation. The number of external student’s advice relationships and social support mean contact intensity are not significant in Girona, but they have a negative effect in Slovenia. We might explain the negative effect of external advice relationships in Slovenia by saying that a lot of external advice may actually result from a lack of the more relevant internal advice

Recognising nominative categorative data

This interactive resource introduces Social Science students to recognition and interpretation of data contained in a table. The RLO uses data based on the causes of death of Rock and R&B musicians. When you view an object note that the panel on the left generated by the repository can be dragged sideways to view the learning object full screen. Item from RLO-CETL.

Complejidad y organización de la información en el área educativa : propuesta de documentos orientadores como auxiliares del usuario de la información.

Se reflexiona sobre la dificultad de clasificar y ordenar cantidades crecientes de información en el área educativa, por ser un campo complejo y polisémico, en cuyo estudio intervienen disciplinas, enfoques y teorías diversas que reflejan la complejidad de la educación como fenómeno social. Se analizan las limitantes que impone la realidad en cuanto a tiempo y posibilidades mentales de acceder a la información. Se comentan las características de los usuarios de la información educativa, entre ellas los diversos niveles académicos y origen disciplinario. Se argumenta la importancia de generar mecanismos que faciliten la búsqueda y el abordaje intelectual de la información. Se propone la selección y generación de documentos orientadores cuyo papel es organizar los conceptos de un área de estudios con el fin de introducir y guiar a los usuarios.

Efecto de la competencia en la escogencia de estándares educativos

En la literatura económica no se ha estudiado como la competencia entre las instituciones educativas afecta específicamente la escogencia de estándares educativos y el valor de matrícula. Usando un modelo teórico analizo como la competencia entre las instituciones educativas afectan la escogencia de estándares académicos, comparando la solución en competencia con la solución eficiente y la solución de monopolio. Los individuos son heterogéneos y se diferencian en su habilidad, las instituciones educativas compiten estableciendo en una primera etapa el estándar educativo, y en una segunda etapa el valor de matrícula. Una vez definidos los estándares y los valores de matrícula, estos son información pública, permitiendo a los individuos escoger entre ingresar o no a una institución educativa o a que institución educativa ingresar de acuerdo a la habilidad innata y al costo asociado al esfuerzo. En los resultados se muestra que el bienestar social aumenta cuando en la economía existe más de una institución educativa con estándares diferentes, y la solución de mercado, en monopolio o en competencia, obliga a los estudiantes a ejercer un mayor esfuerzo para alcanzar el título. Independiente a la relación de costos, el valor de matrícula es siempre mayor para la institución con estándar educativo más alto, y mayor en la solución de mercado. Cuando el costo unitario de la institución con estándar más alto es mayor o igual al costo de la institución con menor estándar, los estándares educativos escogidos por el planificador son mayores y el esfuerzo requerido por los individuos es menor respecto a la solución de mercado.

Análisis de los intereses geoestratégicos de China y Estados Unidos en Corea del Sur tras el programa nuclear de Corea del Norte

La península coreana ha sido desde la Guerra Fría y a la actualidad una zona convulsionada por intereses políticos, económicos e ideológicos. Ese panorama obliga un análisis sobre la configuración y los cambios que se han dado entre las potencias actuales, China y Estados Unidos, desde la existencia de un programa nuclear norcoreano que afecta a Corea del Sur y la definición de los intereses de Beijin y Washington.

Análisis del proceso que condujo a la construcción del concepto de explotación inserto en el Protocolo para prevenir, reprimir y sancionar la trata de personas, incorporado a la legislación colombiana a través de la Ley 800 de 2003

El objetivo de este trabajo de grado es describir una disputa política por el significado del concepto de explotación en el marco de la redacción del “Protocolo para prevenir, reprimir y sancionar la trata de personas, especialmente mujeres y niños”, en el cual se define aquello que se entiende por trata de personas. La construcción de este concepto excluye e invisibiliza otros tipos de explotación comunes en el sistema de producción capitalista contemporánea que pertenecen al universo de violencia objetiva sistémica a través del énfasis en la explotación sexual que hace parte de la violencia subjetiva.

Determinantes socio-económicas de la desnutrición global infantil en la Localidad de Ciudad Bolívar (Bogotá, Colombia) en el año 2011

La desnutrición infantil y la pobreza se encuentran asociadas y estas a su vez con el progreso de los países. Conocer las determinantes sociales y económicas de la niñez que padece de bajo peso es necesario para crear escenarios propicios para el adecuado desarrollo de la primera infancia y de esta manera contribuir con la superación de la pobreza en el marco de sistemas sanitarios equitativos. Se realiza una descripción de las características socio-económicas y un análisis de posibles asociaciones entre estas y el bajo peso infantil de una muestra de infantes de uno de los sectores de mayor vulnerabilidad y pobreza de Bogotá (Colombia). La tasa del bajo peso infantil en la muestra del estudio en más alta a la presentada en Bogotá y Colombia (8.5%, 2.9% y 3.4% respectivamente). Al realizar el análisis de las posibles asociaciones entre el bajo peso y las variables de estudio, se evidencia que las relaciones son débiles entre la primera y las segundas, siendo la condición de desplazamiento la que mayor asociación positiva presenta con la deficiencia nutricional seguido del rango de edad entre los 25 y 36 meses. La situación que presenta mayor independencia con respecto al bajo peso infantil es contar con vivienda propia seguida del sexo. La desnutrición infantil se presenta en niveles importantes en sectores de mayor vulnerabilidad con implicaciones para el adecuado desarrollo de los infantes y para las intenciones de reducción de los índices de pobreza en el país. El fortalecimiento de las políticas públicas que favorezca el desarrollo infantil, la superación de la pobreza y las inequidades en los sistemas de salud deben contemplar acciones integrales dirigidas a los más vulnerables, con la participación de la sociedad civil y los sectores públicos y privados, el compromiso político y económico de los gobiernos y reglas claras que contribuyan a la solución estructural de la pobreza y que promueva el adecuado desarrollo infantil.

La construcción de sentido del inicio de un cambio estratégico en las organizaciones: el caso de la Universidad del Rosario

A través de un caso de estudio se explora cómo la construcción de sentido de un grupo de directivos, bajo una misma inspiración, generó el inicio de un cambio estratégico en una prestigiosa y reconocida universidad colombiana, la Universidad del Rosario. Una institución que en un momento determinado notó que estaba siendo percibida dentro del sector de la educación superior como pequeña, estática en el avance de algunas disciplinas del conocimiento y conservadora; en otras palabras, que estaba perdiendo el reconocimiento que usualmente la había acompañado. A través del estudio de este caso se utilizó la técnica de análisis de discurso para comprender la construcción de sentido del inicio de un cambio estratégico en las organizaciones. Esta técnica permitió analizar la información cualitativa derivada de las entrevistas que se realizaron en profundidad a la cúpula de directivos de la institución y a algunos destacados representantes del sector de la Educación Superior en Colombia. Los resultados sugieren que se hicieron presentes, efectivamente, algunas condiciones específicas que marcaron el inicio de un cambio estratégico en la institución y un viraje en su identidad e imagen. Hechos que se sustentaron en los miembros de un equipo que procuró interpretar y comprender los cambios existentes en el entorno global y local, y asimilar, igualmente, algunos destacados retos que se planteaban por aquella época, al interior de la propia Universidad